Friday, January 6, 2012

Feb 2012 Visa Bulletin and Analysis

Feb 2012 Visa Bulletin was released today and the priority dates are 01 JAN 10 for EB2 India and 15 AUG 02 for EB3 India. For China, the numbers are 01 JAN 10 for EB2 and 01 DEC 04 for EB3.

EB2 India moved from 01 JAN 09 in January Visa Bulletin to 01 Jan 10 in Feb. The EB3 India has moved 7 days compared to last visa bulletin.

EB2 India movement is a good news for all the folks whose priority date is in 2009. It has moved one year, covering the whole of 2009. Given this type of movement, retrogression at some point in this fiscal year is absolutely necessary. They say this in the visa bulletin link given below and they also predict the movement for EB3,

"Employment Second:

China and India: Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for adjustment of status in recent months has been extremely low. This fact has required the continued rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate demand and maximize number use under the annual limit. Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.

Employment Third:

Worldwide: up to one month
China: up to one month
India: up to two weeks "

The demand numbers for this month was released earlier and it shows real low numbers for EB2 India. I still don't understand the rationale behind moving the dates for another year. They highlight the low demand as a reason. I am guessing they will get enough application this month and they will retrogress the dates for EB2 India in March 2012 Visa Bulletin. But, given the movement we have seen in the last few visa bulletins, anything can happen.

Good part about all this is, folks whose priority dates are in 2008 and 2009, can apply for I-485 and apply for EADs for them and their spouses and it gives them little more freedom than being on H visa or L visa. It is a good stream of revenue for USCIS as well. So, it is kind of a win-win situation.

But, I don't expect all the EB2 India folks to get their green card this year, who have their priority date in 2008 or 2009. Atleast, not under current law.

For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change. The reason being there is no spill over to EB3. Hence only about 2800 green cards are given for this category every year.

To view the Feb 2012 Visa Bulletin -- Click Here

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10 comments:

  1. What's new in your blog? Try to give some intelligent analysis. Do not copy paste visa bulletins.

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  2. Crazzybouy.. Shut the F-up..
    Ganesh.. agree the demand data they publish makes no sense.. I know 30 odd people myself who have applied for AOS in last 3 months. Unless they are reporting only reviewed cases ready for approval in which case there is obvious lag but in that case this fwd movement isU just stupid if they know there are 1000s AOS app under review from last 3-4 months!!

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  3. @polestar, your 30 f**ing odd people do not create statistics either. Anything can happen w.r.t priority dates. Predictions are bullshit.. Stop dreaming and just hope for the best. This is not any better than predicting earthquakes!

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  4. But, I don't expect all the EB2 India folks to get their green card this year, who have their priority date in 2008 or 2009. Atleast, not under current law.

    What is this law in particular?

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  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  6. Why do you guys sound so pessimistic. "Absolutely necessary to retrogress" was there a reason for using such strong words. Or you guys just say what you know as it is written on the title( apparently currently you dont know anything).

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  7. I agree "Try to give some intelligent analysis. Do not copy paste visa bulletins.

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  8. I agree "Try to give some intelligent analysis. Do not copy paste visa bulletins"....

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  9. Your predicitions were right...:) :)

    Please don't dare to predict anymore...

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  10. any predictions for eb3 India? My priority date is april 2004.

    ReplyDelete