Monday, September 10, 2012

October 2012 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


October 2012 Visa Bulletin was released today. Dates for EB2 India is 01 SEP 04 and EB2 China is 15 JUL 07. The cut-off for EB2-ROW, EB2-Mexico and EB2-Philippines is 01 JAN 12.

Again, all the expectations were crashed and burned !!! Initially, it was thought that the cut-off date for EB2 India will be Sept 2007. Last week, Murthy.com released a newsflash saying the cut-off date for EB2 India is expected to be sometime in 2006. Now, we see that the actual date is 01 SEP 04.

Porting from EB3 to EB2 has increased the number on EB2 making the cut-off date way-back. The demand data released earlier today gives some indication on why the dates are like this. It says for EB2 India, there are 1,350 applicants who have Priority Date before Jan 1, 2007; 5,500 before Jan 1, 2008 and 20,000 before Jan 1, 2009. Lets stop there. Given this, with no spill overs, the EB2 per year quota is about 2,800. Also, 1 Oct 2012 is the start of new fiscal year -- FY 2013. If DOS moves the dates covering about 230 applicants for now per month (= 2800/12), then Jan 1, 2007 date will be seen in March 2013 Visa Bulletin, at the earliest. Assuming the spill overs will be in tune with last few years, then we cannot expect to cross 2008 in FY 2013. Very bad scenario for EB2 India indeed !!! Of-course, porting is going to continue, as the most of 2008 or earlier cut-off date folks from EB2-India are eligible for porting. This will make things worse.

Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 15 OCT 02 and EB3 China is 08 FEB 06. As expected, EB3 India is moving at one week or two weeks per month pace. For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change. The reason being there is no spill over to EB3 India category. Hence only about 2800 green cards are given for this category every year.

To view the October 2012 Visa Bulletin -- Please Click Here

To view the Demand Data -- Please Click Here

Related Posts by Categories



Widget by Scrapur

107 comments:

  1. Doees this mean it is going to take approximately 7 years for someone with PD Jan 1, 2009 to become current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No. If the spillovers give a total of more than 20,000 visas to EB2, this year, then it will become current this year.

      Delete
    2. Can you please explain this in a little more detail. I want to make sure I get it right. My PD is July 2010.

      Delete
    3. Thanks. So worst cast it can take 7 years. Are there any historical data on spillover available to this category? I understand that it can fluctuate wildly per year but some measure of the numbers from the past year can be of some solace. Thanks again for this awesome blog. It is tedious to get this info through search.

      Delete
  2. About 20,000 visas have been given under EB2 India for FY 09, 10 and 11 according to DOS website.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So do you think we would get it for current fiscal year?

      Delete
    2. Dude, how the hell will this person know for sure that it is going to happen this year as well.

      Delete
    3. ambals,
      Can you clarify on how spillovers gave 20,000 visas during Fy 09,10 and 11??
      As indians, aI thought we are entitled to a max of 9,800 per year?? Where are we getting the remaining from??

      Delete
  3. Thank you for the information. When will we find out about the spillovers? Also, I know it's hard to say but if you had to guess how long before PD is Feb 2008, what would you say? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My guess will be June 2013 or later...

      Delete
  4. I am sorry to say this, what the hell is going on. Don't you think these rules are bit ridiculous. Why they are accepting under EB3 and why they are supporting to upgrade to EB2... Really sucks...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Really dude. Eb3 guy goes gets a masters degree and joins another company which needs master degree. do you want him to start over in eb2 or port existing eb3.

      Delete
    2. I am not saying to start over in EB2. I mean if USCIS is providing such options, what is the point of categorization... ?

      Delete
    3. The main unfairness with EB3 to EB2 porting is the porters are able to use old PD. If they indeed qualify for EB2 criteria 5 years after apply under EB3, then thats what the new PD should be- the day they actually qualify for EB2, not the day they qualified for EB3!!!

      Delete
    4. That's right i would agree that... PD should be when they qualify for EB2 not the old PD.

      Delete
    5. This is why indians are having seperate quota.They fight among them selves...They wont make use of what they have in the system. Of course system itself sucks... all their complaint is others are getting benefitted before them.

      Delete
    6. I respect the guy who made the above comment.
      also, as one guy complaining about keeping PD after porting over to EB2 by acquiring enough skills, its not actually entirely true for all individuals. Some people are more than qualified, its just that they ended up in eb3 unfortunately.

      Delete
    7. Exactly. I was more than qualified with masters degree and company hiring master's holder's. Here comes the wonderful company lawyer who dictates HR to apply people in EB3 regardless bringing up some fancy words like audit to the company. So I totally disagree for whomever thinks people in EB3 dont have skills and thats why they ended up in EB3. Million things can wrong along the way why people end up in EB3 dude....so chill out.

      Delete
    8. Indians are not fighting each other. I am talking about the system. If employer files under EB3 category though you have enough skills, that's your problem to tell them to apply under EB2. If they disagree, go with an employer who files under EB2. Employers always try to bluff you as they need to run business and more money.I am not against EB3 and moreover i am not jealous about others getting PD's.

      Delete
    9. Thats your problem???? You asking people to change jobs if they have problem with current employer is almost like YOU packing your bags and going back to India for YOUR (GC)PROBLEMS.

      Delete
    10. I am in EB3 PD Nov 2002. Been waiting 10 years. My company had a policy of applying only in EB3 (despite my Ph.D and the job needing at least a masters). The month after I applied for 485 in 2007, USCIS messed up and made all categories current. Have been paying for EAD and AP last 5 years. I am not cursing those lucky guys in EB2 that applied 5 years after me and got ahead. Get some perspective!

      Delete
    11. Hi, As you know that your company had a policy that they would apply only in EB3 category. I am not understanding why they applied you under EB3 as you have "Ph.D". Well this was in back 2002. You should have take a chance to change the employer who files under EB2 category, end of the day everyone is fighting for status. Why we need to stick that employer (If it is not FT).

      Delete
  5. Hi my PD is Nov 2006 EB2 can you please tell me when my PD would likely become current so that I can file my spouse's I-485.

    thank you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My guess will be Mar 2013 or later....

      Delete
    2. Thank you. So there is no scope to file it earlier? Btw I noticed that there is a comment about putting from eb2 to eb1, but my understanding is that eb1 does not have porting.

      Delete
    3. My PD is SEP 7th 2006. I was too optimistic and bought tickets for India vacation for Christmas. Guess I have to cancel them.

      Delete
    4. You never know with DOS... you might lucky...

      Delete
    5. At times like this I feel like packing and moving back to home.

      Delete
    6. Is anybody holding a gun to your head, if not than do it. Life in India is getting much better than before

      Delete
    7. pack ur bag and go back to india then...

      Delete
  6. Hi

    Given that EB3 is still stuck with 2002 and if more porting happens then potentially we can see dates moving as far as 2002 right? I don't see a bright spot for EB2. Also I keep hearing about people who apply EB1 and EB2 ROW which has better priority dates? This can potentially reduce spill for EB2.

    Experts please comment.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Ther are approximately about 48000 applications pending in EB3 for India. If all of them ported to EB2I category, they will have an earlier priority date(in or prior to 2007) in EB2 category. Thus the number of appliactions in EB2 category of 1350 currently given in the demand data prior to January 1, 2007 would be moot.

    If the porting applications are calculated at 50% the number of ported and actual EB2 applications prior to 2007 would be around 25000 applications.

    With the current statistics and trends unlesss there is a spillover into EB2 India category the chances of getting a GC for priority dates before 2008 is 8-10 years.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Is there a restriction in spillover too? so if 50k visas are available will india only get 20k???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No. Last few years thats the number EB2 India has got. We still don't know the FY 2012 number, that will give a better idea on latest EB1, EB5 spill overs as well.

      Delete
  9. I wish they had Demand Data used numbers for Jan1 2005, Jan1 2006 for EB2

    ReplyDelete
  10. EB2 india will take 10 years minimum as per the data i receive on porting from eb3 to eb2 till date with PD before 2010.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Spill over happens every month or quarter or yearly?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. End of year. What we have seen is, they try to start having some spillover predictions and give some leverage from June on-wards. But, there is no consistency, like it happened last year.

      Delete
  12. In Track it website i see more than 600 people got their 485 approved whose priority date is in 2008(Even december 2008).
    Why there are people in 2007 still waiting?
    Wont USCIS process FIFO? according to priority date or receipt date?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. you're right! I know some people with pd 2006 2007 who already have gc under eb2 india. I think the problem is twofold
      1. USCIS is acting very conservatively.
      2. Some Eb3's may have switched to EB2 with PD closer to 2004.

      My best guess is that within 2-4 months current pd's will be in 2008. I know people are switching from EB3 to EB2 but I have also heard many cases where their case was rejected and they dont even have eb3 anymore. I dont think there are many people who have switched and I think people with 2009 dates may be able to file 485's. Off course this may lead to people with about mid of 2010 to get ead's.

      Delete
    2. Another point, people whose PD was in 2008 may have been smarter and kept their application ready to be processes. Average time to process 485's in the past 1.5 years was very quick. 3-5 months. Thus people who kept paperwork ready got their 485's aproved, while 2007 pd people who did not have for ex., birth certificate, etc got rfe's didnt have correct paperwork ready in time

      Delete
  13. Can you give us some prediction of where we will end next year (2013) for Eb2?

    ReplyDelete
  14. Dear Author - Thanks for your write up. A few comments that I think you may have missed in your projections:
    1. 2800/12 = 230/month BUT dont forget that each visa for dependent and spouse as well is needed. So March 2007 may not happen.
    2. 2800/12 is ONLY true if NONE ports from EB3-EB2 for priority date <2008. Those nos. will eat into the pile also, so March 2007 may not be likely.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes. Very Valid Points. That is the reason, it is stated March 2013 "at the earliest".

      Delete
    2. demand data count already includes spouse and children.

      Delete
    3. Numbers are only for primary beneficiary. 2800 are number of applicants. Their kids and spouse are secondary beneficaries and are not counted. If what you said was true, then we are looking at 25 years of waiting time for EB2, if an average family size is 3

      Delete
  15. When will EB2I with PD Aug 2007 be current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My guess is when the spill over starts coming into account...typically June... so June 2013 will be my guess...

      Delete
  16. Thanks for the good write up.

    I think we Indian Americans are missing the point by simply focussing on when each of our PD will become current. We need to get better organized and lobby strongly for immigration reform.

    Does anyone know the names of any Indian-American organizations involved in this effort? I am willing to spend time and effort for this cause. Any informations and pointers will be very appreciated.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Immigration Voice is doing lobbying but I keep getting disappointed by some forum members' discriminatory posts against eb3 to eb2 porters. I expected solidarity in our community but I keep seeing discrimination between eb2 and eb3 very disappointing.

      Delete
    2. Yes Support HR 3012 bill

      Delete
    3. Yes Support HR 3012

      Delete
  17. Yes....we need more and more people get involved in lobbying and raising voice over this horrible process....they 50000 to lottery...and create this much huddle to hard working and bright people...this is the most ridiculous situation...and kept giving us too much trouble...

    ReplyDelete
  18. One thing all the EB2 people are forgetting ... the picture is not complete - more and more eb3s with older PDs are getting added everyday .... so the backlog will mostly grow not shrink .... welcome to the desi America dream

    ReplyDelete
  19. In my view the picture will be more clear when we see November 2012 Visa bulletin. EB2 movement by two weeks or by two months will be the real indicator of things in store. Let us hold our breath till next VISA bulletin.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Hi Ambals,
    Thanks for your time to analyze and explaining them to us.
    Based on the demand data, I estimated my May 2008 PD, EB2 will become current by end of 2013, right?
    Please let me know your guess.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I guess so too... assuming too many porting does not happen....

      Delete
  21. Thanks for such an informative blog... I still am not able to understand that porting from eb3 to eb2 should have been a practice from very beginning, so why is it being highted now ??? Even when the eb2 dates were somewhere in 2007 they should have seen the porting before they started moving it to may of 2010.. Why all of a sudden apply breaks now?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Because people who are in EB2 now are panicking and don't want any more fellow Indians to get ahead of them in the line or they will have to wait longer. In short they want to take advantage of any immigration laws if it's in their favor but if the same thing hurts them later then they oppose it..it's called hypocrisy.

      Delete
  22. Ambals, you are doing a great job. Your views and analysis immensely help lessen the uncertainity in our community.

    My priority date is October 2010 on EB2. Based on your inputs and comments, my optimistic, calculation is end of 2014. Am I correct?

    ReplyDelete
  23. Hi Ambals
    I work in London. My company applied for consular processing with EB2. PD -Aug-2009. I paid the visa application fee in January-2012 when my PD became current and then the visa application was sent to NVC. After that everything messed up as we see . Now, is there a way I can know if the application is in process or on hold until PD becomes current again? From this forum discussion it looks like around 8-10 years wait time is inevitable. Do you think they can keep applications safe for so many years in their files ? it includes my birth and marriage certificates. If company tries to move me to US with H1B or L1B - is it possible to apply such visas when CP is on hold? Do you know if my CP can be converted to AOS immediately?

    Too many questions but really appreciate your help

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Ambal,
      Everyone's assuming everyone on EB3 will be ported to EB2. Thats not possible. The success rate of EB3 to EB2 porting is 28%. What that means is even if 10k eb3 successfully port to eb2, you may still be close on hitting your number at the end of this year or early next year. If the USCIS opens up dates it did last year, your ead may be processed even if your 485 stays pending for 1-2 years. This means that 485 approval may take time, though there is a good chance of getting an ead. Its not that easy to port eb3 to eb2. Many people on EB3 are from desi consultants and there are many audits conducted. Its a risk not many in EB3's will take.

      Delete
  24. Hi, my PD is june 2005 (EB2-I). I have my EAD/AP approved & biometrics complete. Can you please advice on when i can expect my PD to be current?

    ReplyDelete
  25. Any idea where we can see how many EB3's are porting to EB2?

    ReplyDelete
  26. I think our main concern for lobbying should be how it disrupts our life, those who have not been able to file i 485s cannot even use portability and are really, at the mercy of their current employers...read visa slaves.......if th backlog has to be as great as 10 yrs to even file a I 485, then portability should be given as soon as you have an approved I 140

    ReplyDelete
  27. We Indians are very poor in lobbying. It took so many years to even initiate the HR 3012 bill. God knows that will be in effect or not. The root of the problem can easily be solved by just pumping extra green cards to the system. Let's say by increasing the Employment based total by 20-30K more. Only Indians are currently affected by this horrible system and hence no one really cares about us. We need a lobby like Israel has

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Problem with IV movement for HR3012 is that visa holders are themselves pursuing it. Unless we have indian american citizens and senators rallying for us there is little to no hope. Unfortunately in our case they dont care

      Delete
    2. We should try and change that by contributing the greens....if we can come together, collect some $$$ then we can hire the best lobbyists in washington to greet the incoming government

      Delete
  28. The US immigration has been a ruthless system that drains the energy and enthusiasm of those who try to legally immigrate here. I see people are very silly here complaining that some eb3 to eb2 conversions took their pie and in other forums eb3 folks saying that they are very happy now. Life is unfair by nature, the reward is not always for for those who follows the rule of book, though we are asked to. I've been waiting in the queue for a long time too ... just take it down with a pinch of salt. There is no science to this process with so many variables into play and its not like simply stand in a queue get your turn. No one is interested in getting you unshackled expect yourself. Move on with life and do what you have to do ... one day you might make or you may not. If you do make it may or may not matter.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Hi Ambal,
    Thanks for explaining this complex subject in simple language. It has been very helpful.
    Do you have any forecasting on when my EB2 filing with PD Dec 2,2005 will become current ? Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  30. Hi Ambals,

    Awesome job on your analysis...Do you think that this date of Sept 2004 is a conservative stuff considering that a lot of 2005,06,07,08 was processed...I have friends who filed in Dec 11 and were able to get the GC.

    What is your optimistic and conservative take on the dates by the end of September 2013?

    ReplyDelete
  31. we missed the lucky-bus by 5 days, our PD was May 5th 2010 and now I know we have a long way to go. Although, I understand its quite juvenile to ask this question, when do you estimate May 2010 to get current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi,
      YOu and I are in the same boat. Our PD is jun 2010. I guess it all depends on how many eb3's are in line. Currently for EB2 approx 34k people are ahead of us. Assuming there were no EB3 and avg spillover of 20k, there was a chance of getting ead's at least since this would have meant that we would be 12k behind after sept 2013. In that case our 485 processing would have been approx may 2014. But with no idea of number of EB3's in between there is no way to predict that. For every 10k eb3's we are pushed 1-2 years behind. Problem is that we bought a house assuming everything will be ok and since my spouse is primary i will be out of h1 in 1.5 years. I think the days of depression are unfortunately back for me ((

      Delete
    2. You bought a house without planning. Life is not rosy at all times.

      Delete
    3. How much can you plan. Do you plan before getting in your car how your family will survive if you meet an accident. Dude, this guy bought a house since his date was very close. If you cant keep your judgemental attitude in check, dont post comments. I know dozens of my friends who were in the same situation this person is, who bought a house. Maybe you can be careful and wait till house prices and mortgage rates are out of the roof.

      Delete
  32. Ambal, so based on the current data, and current immigration rules, it would take close to 30 yrs for the PD to become Jan 2012 right?
    As currently there are 90000 pending, and 90000/230=32 yrs.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Hello All: My PD is March-2006 and I am from EB2(I) category. I would like to get a prediction on when this could get current. Thanks

    Also my finger prints were taken back in 2007 and after that I did travel outside of US for 2 times and they should have my FPs.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Be prepared, your date should be current within 2 months

      Delete
  34. Do these numbers in the inventory show all applications pending for 485? Because if thats the case, many people lost their jobs in 2008/2009 and had to restart

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. agreed and many of those probably went back home country, but then, several EB3 ported to EB-2 so it balances out :)

      Delete
    2. Guys, eb3 to eb2 for guys that filed almost 10 years ago is different from people trying to jump for a 2007 pd. After like 10 years its easy to justify to be on eb2. One example is that the worlds largest construction company in the US is experiencing rampant eb2 rejections for its employees with 4-5 years of experience.

      Delete
  35. What about the 20K pre-adjudicated I-485 cases sitting in queue that were filed early this year because their PD was current? Wouldnt those guys now use up all the EB2i no.s before anyone (2007 and prior) in the Oct bulletin gets a chance ?

    ReplyDelete
  36. You could sign the petition at http://www.change.org/petitions/uscis-immigration-services-expedite-movement-in-eb2-india-priority-date#

    ReplyDelete
  37. Dude, support HR 3012 bill

    ReplyDelete
  38. It is waste of time and energy on predicting/forecasting on what will come in the near future. Just go back to work.

    ReplyDelete
  39. This is really inhuman. The USCIS shouldn't really be letting people from India and China apply for GCs if the numbers aren't going to be available within 12 months. Many basic decisions such as kids, homes, travel, cars etc. hinge on employment certainty and the U.S. govt. being insensitive to such needs and letting people wait for years "in line" is so pathetic. Shame!

    ReplyDelete
  40. Any idea on when a PD of June 2005 (EB2-I) might get current? Do i have to wait until Mar 2013?

    ReplyDelete
  41. My PD is Jan 2009, but not able to file I485 on last time, due to job change. I am in 7th year of my h1b, don't like to day dream for a long time, I am planning to go back to India. Enjoy guys, hope everyone should get GC.

    ReplyDelete
  42. HI,
    I am applying under Chargeability clause under EB2 category from UK. I got my labor filed in 5th Feb2012 but the priority dates is for 01JAN12 only.My lawyer is saying to apply 140 and i485 together.
    What you guys think it will move one month in Nov bulletin or not?
    expert comment required.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Any prediction when EB2 DEC 2008 PD would be current ?

    ReplyDelete
  44. It is strange most my friends who filed for GC in 2005 . Have got their GCs two years back..how does rollback to 2004 is justified.i think it is pessimistic number ...i think i will go by rule of 3 years and be patient...my pd is Oct 2010.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Hi Ambals,

    Where we can find these data such as pending applications before certain date? please advise how many applications are pending before the priority date is 30 Sept 2004, in other words when this date may become current. Thanks for all the effort you all have been putting to bring such valuable data and analyses to us.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You're right. Even I know many people in 05, 06 who have gc's. There are 2 problems.:

      1. Everyone's speculating heavy porting from EB3 to EB2. This I think hasn't really increased and happens every year. In fact with current administration it has become more difficult thus you see the increase in spillovers too.
      2. There are some law firms (who i may not be able to quote) have stated that USCIS has given this very conservative date due to heavy workload, because of legalizing illegals (deferred action applications). They dont have enough resources for both deferred action and EB's. EB2/EB3 India being the most dense category has been moved back to buy time.

      Obviously everything is speculation and I guess waiting for a couple of months more will tell the reality

      Delete
    2. http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment-based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2005-03-12.pdf

      Here you go. You can check the number of pending 485's

      Delete
  46. Look at the power the illegal immigrants sector of the society has in spite of the fact that they came here illegally, they are banding together and showing their power of vote. It is widely accepted that the Nov elections might very well be decided by this vote, hence the incumbent government's last minute carrot. If you watched the interviews of Obama and Romney and listed carefully, I think you will know which party is better for our community. Of course the kids have done nothing wrong. But it is amazing to me that legal and high skilled very well educated EB3s and EB2s like us are not able to really influence Washington DC. This effort needs immediate and real attention. Established Indian Americans here who have been here a while should help with this, or at least provide some guidance or a forum to junior and fresh incoming members of this grossly disadvantaged minority of society....where can we get more info on this? Links on current lobbying efforts, prople, contacts etc. will help a lot...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Indian Americans don't really care. Their ship has sailed. Most of them were here in early 60's 70's when anyone could come in. This is the reason why our home country is in the state it is.

      Delete
    2. Indians is one community who does not care about helping other fellow Indians. They will keep complaining until they get green card or citizenship and as soon as they do they go back to their little holes and stop caring anymore. Unlike this other communities like Hispanics stand together for their people and that's why theirs more traction to illegal immigrant movements.

      Delete
  47. Excuse my ignorance in this. I have filed my I-485 application in Jan 2012 with PD Jan 2009. What are my chances of getting a green card in this lot?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If the USCIS is just buying time, which it hopefully is you should get your gc this year.

      Delete
  48. My priority date is 15th feb , 2005, under EB2, can u suggest when it will be current? I got it ported from EB3 category. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  49. My priority date if Feb 2003 - EB3? What are my chances of getting GC in 2012/13? Very frustrating wait and no plans for porting.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I know... it is very frustrating. My rule of thumb is one week per visa bulletin. So, hopefully Oct 2013 will see Feb 2003 under current law.

      Delete
  50. I was looking at the demand data. It shows total pending EB2 are 45000 (all countries included) and the annual worldwide limit is 40000... then even with some porting and some fall down from eb1 to eb2, EB2 PD should be current in a couple of years... am I missing something?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thats may be true, though each year people from India, China and ROW also add to the numbers correct. So if 25-30k ROW applicants add in, you're again pushed back a couple of years extra

      Delete