October 2012 Visa Bulletin was released today. Dates for EB2 India is 01 SEP 04 and EB2 China is 15 JUL 07. The cut-off for EB2-ROW, EB2-Mexico and EB2-Philippines is 01 JAN 12.
Again, all the expectations were crashed and burned !!! Initially, it was thought that the cut-off date for EB2 India will be Sept 2007. Last week, Murthy.com released a newsflash saying the cut-off date for EB2 India is expected to be sometime in 2006. Now, we see that the actual date is 01 SEP 04.
Porting from EB3 to EB2 has increased the number on EB2 making the cut-off date way-back. The demand data released earlier today gives some indication on why the dates are like this. It says for EB2 India, there are 1,350 applicants who have Priority Date before Jan 1, 2007; 5,500 before Jan 1, 2008 and 20,000 before Jan 1, 2009. Lets stop there. Given this, with no spill overs, the EB2 per year quota is about 2,800. Also, 1 Oct 2012 is the start of new fiscal year -- FY 2013. If DOS moves the dates covering about 230 applicants for now per month (= 2800/12), then Jan 1, 2007 date will be seen in March 2013 Visa Bulletin, at the earliest. Assuming the spill overs will be in tune with last few years, then we cannot expect to cross 2008 in FY 2013. Very bad scenario for EB2 India indeed !!! Of-course, porting is going to continue, as the most of 2008 or earlier cut-off date folks from EB2-India are eligible for porting. This will make things worse.
Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 15 OCT 02 and EB3 China is 08 FEB 06. As expected, EB3 India is moving at one week or two weeks per month pace. For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change. The reason being there is no spill over to EB3 India category. Hence only about 2800 green cards are given for this category every year.