November 2012 Visa Bulletin was released today. Dates for EB2 India is 01 SEP 04 and EB2 China is 01 SEP 07. The cut-off for EB2-ROW, EB2-Mexico and EB2-Philippines is Current.
Looks like DOS is taking the caution approach, by making the EB2 India date the same as last visa bulletin. It makes sense after the last year's debacle - having to go to "Unavailable". The good news is that EB2 China has moved 15 JUL 07 to 01 SEP 07. Also, all other countries are current. If the trend continues, this will help later in the year to get the spillovers to EB2 India.
I think there is bad news from the Demand Data. It says the cumulative demand prior to Jan 1, 2007 is 1100, which has come down from 1350. But demand prior to Jan 1, 2008 is 5800 which has gone up from 5500. Prior to Jan 1, 2009, the demand is 21,275 - up from 20,000. What this tells me is, they have allocated 250 for the month of October, so the demand has gone down from 1350 to 1100. But, prior to Jan 1, 2009 - the number has gone up by 1,275, even after 250 allocation. That might be the number of porting happening, which is a lot. If this trend continues, I am not sure if it will even reach Jan 1, 2009 in Sept 2013 visa bulletin.
Now, the next question is what will happen over the next month/months. It can go 2 ways. One DOS might consider adding some spillover prediction number for this quarter and move the dates in December. Or, they might decide to wait and add the spill over number later in the year. My guess will it will be the second way, which means no movement or very less movement for next 6 visa bulletins.
Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 22 OCT 02 and EB3 China is 15 APR 06. As expected, EB3 India is moving at one week or two weeks per month pace. For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change. The reason being there is no spill over to EB3 India category. Hence only about 2800 green cards are given for this category every year.