Friday, October 12, 2012

November 2012 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


November 2012 Visa Bulletin was released today. Dates for EB2 India is 01 SEP 04 and EB2 China is 01 SEP 07. The cut-off for EB2-ROW, EB2-Mexico and EB2-Philippines is Current.

Looks like DOS is taking the caution approach, by making the EB2 India date the same as last visa bulletin. It makes sense after the last year's debacle - having to go to "Unavailable". The good news is that EB2 China has moved 15 JUL 07 to 01 SEP 07. Also, all other countries are current. If the trend continues, this will help later in the year to get the spillovers to EB2 India.

I think there is bad news from the Demand Data. It says the cumulative demand prior to Jan 1, 2007 is 1100, which has come down from 1350. But demand prior to Jan 1, 2008 is 5800 which has gone up from 5500. Prior to Jan 1, 2009, the demand is 21,275 - up from 20,000. What this tells me is, they have allocated 250 for the month of October, so the demand has gone down from 1350 to 1100. But, prior to Jan 1, 2009 - the number has gone up by 1,275, even after 250 allocation. That might be the number of porting happening, which is a lot. If this trend continues, I am not sure if it will even reach Jan 1, 2009 in Sept 2013 visa bulletin.

Now, the next question is what will happen over the next month/months. It can go 2 ways. One DOS might consider adding some spillover prediction number for this quarter and move the dates in December. Or, they might decide to wait and add the spill over number later in the year. My guess will it will be the second way, which means no movement or very less movement for next 6 visa bulletins.

Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 22 OCT 02 and EB3 China is 15 APR 06. As expected, EB3 India is moving at one week or two weeks per month pace. For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change. The reason being there is no spill over to EB3 India category. Hence only about 2800 green cards are given for this category every year.

To view the November 2012 Visa Bulletin -- Please Click Here

To view the Demand Data -- Please Click Here

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58 comments:

  1. Thanks guys. You are doing an amazing job. Couple of questions.

    1. Since USCIS seem to have allocated 250 this month, if they keep moving at same pace, PD will reach Jan'07 by March 2013 at the earliest?

    2. How does spillover in EB2 category work at present?

    3. How will spillover help in consuming demand of 21,175 prior to Jan'09?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1. I hope so.
      2, 3 -- we have to wait and watch.

      Delete
  2. Very good analysis.

    Thanks
    Sriram

    ReplyDelete
  3. Ambals Great job.You level of analysis is pretty good. Thanks for sharing your ideas

    ReplyDelete
  4. Ambals, you guys are doing great job.

    The only unclear point of this analysis is, how can demand increase by 300 visa numbers (from 5500 to 5800), when priority dates are Sep-04?

    In other words, if candidates from Jan-07 to Dec-07 can't apply for their AoS right now, then how can demand increase?

    Do you have more insight?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe I-140 application will give them the demand numbers. When applying for I-140 it is mentioned that the applicant is porting using the same A number.

      Delete
  5. The good news is that since row is current, we might get good amount of spillover if it continues like this. I read in other forums and articles that because of deffered action they are keeping this date in 04 to balance their workload. When is the last date of deffered action application? What is the approximate time it takes USCIS to complete application process for deffered action? Its a sorry sight that we have to depend on how soon illegals can be served

    ReplyDelete
  6. Good analysis. It has been practice of DoS to go cautious as there is disconnect with the USCIS and DoS demand forecasting for visa numbers. Resulting in the PD advancement and retrogression witnessed in 2007 and 2011

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi
    Can you please help understand how to read the numbers? Is the number cumulative? In other words,
    prior to jan 08 = 5800
    prior to jan 09 = 21275

    what is the count between jan08 to jan09 = 21275 or ( 21275 - 5800) = 15475 ?

    ReplyDelete
  8. Good Analysis.

    When can we expect the Bulletin with Eb2 2007 Sept date?

    -Ramesh

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I thinking more like August 2013

      Delete
    2. Hello ambals-
      What are your opinions or predictions based on this below?

      http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/10/24/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-24-2012/

      Delete
    3. It all depends on porting and spillover. Like I said in the post -- my most optimistic number is Jan 1, 2009 by Sept 2013. The most pessimistic number will be Jan 1, 2008 -- when the spillover is too less and porting is too high. We need to wait and watch over the months.

      Delete
  9. Guys, any idea on june 2005 EB2-I date would be current?

    ReplyDelete
  10. One small correction in the above analysis. The addition of numbers post 2008 is not porting but USCIS adding processed 485 applications that they got last year into the demand data. Also if u look at may 485 inventory there are now no applications pre Sept 2004 after they have allocated 250 numbers in oct and now some in nov. So for decemeber they dont have any numbers pre sept 2004 to assign. They have scrubbed it clean. so they will move the dates only if they have to allocate 700 visas per quarter. This is cause they think they will get new applications due to porting starting this October.

    ReplyDelete
  11. 01SEP2004 makes no sense though right. Who are they giving this months 250 visas? they should have moved the date a little bit. I wish uscis clarified whats going on.
    USCIS wont have to answer anyone?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For India, EB2 date will not be moved at least till April 2013. This is the agenda of USCIS to make money.
      There are 45 thousand applicants who are on EAD now. Most of them have to renew their EAD/AP by Mar/Apr 2013.
      If USCIS waits till they renew their EAD/AP, they can make around 40+ millions. This is the first benefit to US govt.
      It creates some employments also in Attorney offices. That is the second benefit for US economy !

      Delete
  12. As per my understanding, porting numbers from EB3 to EB2 have increased (as EB3 PD is almost standstill). DOS is considering that. If EB2 PD does not move, more pre2004 EB3 to EB2 cases will be into EB2 bucket and that will affect EB2 movement.

    ReplyDelete
  13. For India, EB2 date will not be moved at least till April 2013. This is the agenda of USCIS to make money.
    There are 45 thousand applicants who are on EAD now. Most of them have to renew their EAD/AP by Mar/Apr 2013.
    If USCIS waits till they renew their EAD/AP, they can make around 40+ millions. This is the first benefit to US govt.
    It creates some employments also in Attorney offices. That is the second benefit for US economy !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please get your facts correct. The EAD/AP renewals are free!

      Delete
  14. My PD is 18th Apr 2011 .So is my wait time is like in the range of 2 digit years ? :) ..
    I need to really start thinking about my priority if this is the case ?

    Any rough estimate on my PD based on the current trend ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Very very tough to estimate. Current trend for EB2 India is about 4.5 years from your priority date. But, now with more porting and less spill over, its changing.

      Delete
  15. My PD is Oct 2007. Any possibility for next June/July?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I thinking more like August 2013

      Delete
    2. Based on this article (see below link) I dates will not move till Oct 2013 atleast.

      http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/10/24/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-24-2012/

      Delete
    3. Yes. It is there in Murthy.com as well. It all depends on porting and spillover. Like I said in the post -- my most optimistic number is Jan 1, 2009 by Sept 2013. Most activity will be July, august and Sept 2013 bulletins.

      Delete
  16. Very good analysis, with ROW PD current there will be less spillover + more porting; PDs will NOT move faster.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Does the PD date applies to the ones have already submitted?

    I have PD Mar 2008 and have submtted AOS Jan 2012.

    When they have PD of Spet 07 in EB2 China case, does that mean they will still process the ones submitted with PD date greater than Sept 07 and not accept AOS with PD not current. or they won't process anything greater than Sept 07.

    In another word, does it make any difference for the ones that already submitted AOS with a later PD date.

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Adiit and Ganesh,
    I want to thank you for doing this. This is a real service to folks. And your analysis is detailed and very well done. You both are quite amazing. Thanks again.

    ReplyDelete
  19. when do you think PD of Jan 2005 will be current ?

    ReplyDelete
  20. Guys...great analysis...any chances (i.e guesstimate) of May-2008 PD becoming current by Sept-2013 end? Positive side is that I don't have to pay for "EAD+AP" renewal fee (applied in early 2012).

    ReplyDelete
  21. Hi Aditi / Ganesh,

    Good job guys..My PD is June 2011..what do you predict for this date.

    Also with so much complications here in US, should one start looking outside like Canada.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. end of 2014/or beginning of 2015. Some of my friends are actually going thru the canadian point system currently. I would say if your job is at risk, go ahead before its too late. It takes more time and effort to do this from India

      Delete
  22. Hi Aditi/Ganesh.my PD is June2010 EB2.can you tell when do you think i can current? thanks so much.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi,
      Our PD's are the same and you're as unlucky as I'm since we missed the boat by a few weeks. I believe that by the end of this year, Jan 2009 485's will be processed based on inventory calculations and hoping ROW's will be current. What that means is we may or may not get an ead by that time. USCIS has a budget and they will need revenue, so to maintain $35-45m they will need people on EAD. So hopefully we may get an EAD by end of next year of like between may-aug 2014.

      Delete
    2. Hi.Thanks for the reply. that was helpful.hopefully we don't have to wait that long.what are the chances on getting EAD by next year.?

      Delete
    3. I hope we get it next year, since I will be out after Jan 2014. So will have to sit until ead kicks in. My attorney told me dont expect anything before May 2014, though with USCIS you never know.

      Delete
  23. My PD is NOV 2006.Can you tell when do you think i can current.I have applied this through spouse.As per my knowledge i have submitted all the documents.Suppose when the dates are current,will they send the Permanant card immediately,or Is there any possibility to send an RFE.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Great job guys! When do you expect Nov 2010 EB2 to be current? Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Probably end of 2014 or beginning of 2015. getting an ead still possible earlier

      Delete
  25. My PD is NOV 2006.Can you tell when do you think i can current.I have applied this through spouse.As per my knowledge i have submitted all the documents.Suppose when the dates are current,will they send the Permanant card immediately,or Is there any possibility to send an RFE.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you have submitted all the documents right, you will get the GC, soon after you get current. At this pace, my guess is around April 2013, for you to get current.

      Delete
    2. Hi,
      Ambals is correct. I've heard people getting RFE's since they did not submit birth certificate or it was not legible. I would say go ahead and get an affidavit from your parents and your paternal/maternal uncle. Primary beneficiary may be asked for that. Even if you get an rfe it should not be a problem, you will have sufficient time to respond.

      Delete
  26. Ambals, I stumbled upon this blog and have a question related to this. I am also porting. Do you know what the process of interfiling is? can you provide some insight?

    ReplyDelete
  27. My PD is NOV 2006.Can you tell when do you think i can current.I have applied this through spouse.As per my knowledge i have submitted all the documents.Suppose when the dates are current,will they send the Permanant card immediately,or Is there any possibility to send an RFE.

    -- For the above case..I have filed my I-485 on November 2011,I got my EAD as well by February 1st.
    Due to some issues My husband filed divorse on April ..
    Any possibilities not get my GC in the above scenario.
    If suppose i can drag the court case to more than can i get my GC..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry to hear about your situation. I knew someone who was in this situation but the difference was that the spouse was a citizen. Consult an attorney right away. She was able to keep her gc

      Delete
  28. Hi Ambals
    Reading that cilawgroup.com prediction link it seems that they dont count spuse/children in the demand data. Is that right? The statement -" if often includes two or three (because many primary beneficiaries have married and have children)."
    Does that mean that the number 5800 in demand data, actually will be 2 folded to include spouse/children. At that rate we are looking at 30 years !
    Please suggest. I ( PD 2009 EB2 ) may have to decide to go back if that's the case. There is absolutely no point.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The quota only counts primary beneficiaries. Otherwise there is no sense of living here.

      Delete
  29. Hello All, MY PD is July2010.Are there any chances that I get my EAD by next year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hopefully next year's visa bulletin.

      Delete
    2. This is so disheartening. Problem is eb3 to eb2 porting w/ very little risk to eb3 application

      Delete
  30. My Priority date is Nov. 2006 EB2 India. Any idea when the VISA bulletin gets current for my my priority date. your response is appreciated.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. since you have already waited for so long you should have developed patience by now. Use ur EAD card & dont forget to renew it.

      Delete
  31. My EB2 India priority date is Jan 19th 2012. How sooner or later can I expect/hope to get EAD on hand and then the GC.

    Will it be 2014 or 2015 or later?

    Thanks in Advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. get married & have kids, by the time they graduate the university you may probably have it , provided everything goes in your favour

      Delete