Wednesday, November 7, 2012

December 2012 Visa Bulletin and analysis


December 2012 Visa Bulletin was released today, surprisingly 2 days earlier than expected. Dates for EB2 India is 01 SEP 04 and EB2 China is 22 OCT 07. The cut-off for EB2-ROW, EB2-Mexico and EB2-Philippines is Current.

There are quite a few things in the visa bulletin, that we must pay attention to. One, there is a future prediction section which says there won't be any movement for EB2 India for some months to come. Two, they say there might be a cut-off date for EB5 China in the future. Both are bad news for EB2 India. Increase in demand for EB5 and EB1 directly means less visas for EB2 via spill over.

The demand data is not available yet for this month. So, its hard to predict how many EB3 to EB2 porting happened last month.

There is a very good article in Murthy.com. It basically says that -- Mr. Charles Oppenheim, the Chief of the DOS Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division, has predicted that by Sept 2013 the best case scenario for EB2 India will be early 2008 date. One interesting fact there is that, in FY12   EB2 India  received about 19,000 visas but it is expected to be much much less in FY13.

Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 01 NOV 02 and EB3 China is 01 JUL 06. As expected, EB3 India is moving at one week or two weeks per month pace. For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change. The reason being there is no spill over to EB3 India category. Hence only about 2800 green cards are given for this category every year.

To view the December 2012 Visa Bulletin -- Please Click Here

To read the Murthy.com article -- Please Click Here

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69 comments:

  1. Hello All, Can someone please explain what this "The cut-off for EB2-ROW, EB2-Mexico and EB2-Philippines is Current." means.can I submit I-485? My PD is Aug2010.How long does it take to get EAD?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Whats your nationality?

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    2. Indian.I'm looking for information like how long it take to get an EAD status with my priority date as Aug2010.

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    3. Unfortunately, you are atleast 1.5 to 2 years out. Yuor PD has to be current for you to file ead. Now the date has rolled back from may 2010 to sep 2004. You will have to wait for the bulletin from USCIS that has the aug2010 date current. Until then, only option you have is to figure out if somehow you can apply in eb1.

      Delete
  2. Ambals,

    The demand data has been pulished and gives visibility into number of cases that are pending for 2005,2006 and going forward. Can you please predict when EB2-I June 2005 priority date might become current? Thank you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes. It is good data. Unfortunately, it looks like there won't be any movement for next couple of months -- as per the law firms meeting with DOS.

      Delete
  3. http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

    Demand Data available.... pre Jan 2007 decreased

    ReplyDelete
  4. Demand data for prior to Jan 2007 is 1300, which was 1100 last month(as per your blog as I have no access to that now). This means there were around 450 cases ported from EB3 to EB2. Also, Demand before Jan 2005 is 225 so Dec 2012 allocation should assign GC to all before Jan 2005 and into 2005. Before Jan 2006, there is demand for 575 so total of 350 for year 2005 (with no porting). This means June 2005 should be available by Feb 2013. (Dec 2012 will complete demand till Jan 2005, Jan 2013 will complete some demand of 2005 and few porting cases).

    ReplyDelete
  5. thank you.... But, do you see small movement for Jan 2013 and Feb 2013 visa bulletin to take the PD dates to mid 2005 or do you see standstill until 2nd Half FY2013 for even this small movement ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Unfortunately, I feel the movement will be only in June 2013. But, I am hoping it will move.

      Delete
  6. Just like you have predicted for EB2-I June 2005 priority date becoming current in Feb 2013, Can you predict when will it be for EB2-I Jan 2010 priority data becoming current(I am assuming it will be a long way also keeping the limited visa number for every fiscal year), also applying the demand data Appreciate and Thank you!

    ReplyDelete
  7. Any predictions for EB2 I Jul 2008 PD?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It will happen in May 2013

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  8. Any predictions for Eb2 I Nov 2007 PD?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It will happen in April 2013

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  9. Hi

    My priority date is 29-Oct-2002 under EB3 category. Dec-2012 visa bulletin date for EB3 has advanced to 01-Nov-2002. What do I do now?

    Thanks,

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you have already applied for I-485, you don't have to do anything, you will get your green card automatically. If not, you have to file the I-485 and related formalities.

      Delete
  10. The most probable reason why EB2 dates aren't moving forward is because of DACA (Differed Action for Childhood Arrivals) workload that has swamped all USCIS offices. Note that the conservative estimate is 0.8 million (minimum) to 1.5 million people have filed for DACA. The USCIS officials didn't see this coming until POTUS announcement in June 2012.

    Second, as a repeat of 2007 fiasco and followup, the dates will remain unavailable/retrogressed for 9-10 months and leap forward by 2-3 years during the last two visa bulletins of the fiscal year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. you are absolutely right sir. Uscis hasn't dedicated additional resources for deffered action. I think we will see some big movements in july2013 and beyond. USCIS also needs money to balance their budget so it would be beneficial to have more people on ead in 2014.

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  11. My PD is September 1, 2004 filed under EB-2. Am I current since the visa bulletin states cutoff date for India EB2 as September 1, 2004? I ask because I have not heard anything from USCIC as my I-485 has been pending and the visa bulletin states that visas are available for applications earlier than September 1, 2004. Have asked many lawyers and no one can give me a definite answer. Please respond with your interpretation.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Unfortunately, you are not current. The PD has to be earlier than the date in the Visa Bulletin to be current.

      Delete
  12. My priority date is 25 Aug 2004, EB2 india.
    I upgraded from EB3 to EB2 recently.
    Still waiting for them to pick my file up.
    Wondering what I should do?
    Create a SR?

    ReplyDelete
  13. Please take some time out to view this petition and sign it. Would be very helpful if you could forward this to others as well and get 25,000 signatures before Dec 1st, 2012.

    Any person applying for Greencard (GC), or in the process of GC, or in the final stage (I-140 approved) and waiting for their priority date to get current, all of us and even people who would be applying for GC in the future, this petition might be very helpful in allowing us to file for EAD as soon as I-140 is approved so that we can continue working without any extra stress of waiting for our priority date to get current and renewing our H1B status every year(s).

    Greatly appreciate it if you could spread the word out and sign it.

    For signing it please click on the link below, it will take you to the petition page on the White-house.gov web page, there if you do not already have an account please create one ( a very simple process of just signing up for free) and then sign the petition.

    Short URL: http://wh.gov/98wq


    https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/allow-filing-i-765-ead-and-i-131-ap-upon-i-140-approval/FBSVvfQh?utm_source=wh.gov&utm_medium=shorturl&utm_campaign=shorturl

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please sign this one as well.

      Advance EB2 and EB3 priority dates for India and China
      This petition is for those who are here legally in the country working hard and paying taxes but are still in darkness and do not know how much more they have to wait to get their green cards.

      The current priority dates for EB2/EB3 India are 01SEP04/01NOV02. We have been living in uncertainity all these years with a small hope that our priority dates would move forward.

      It feels like a slap in the face to see the government give away green cards/citizenships to others while we wait for them indefinitely. We are highly skilled professionals who add value to the country and help the companies that sustain the economy. We have self-respect and deserve to be treated well. We kindly request the Obama administration to expedite the green card processing, for current and future applicants.

      https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/advance-eb2-and-eb3-priority-dates-india-and-china/Bm9zqfdP

      Delete
    2. Please sign this one too.

      URL - https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/advance-eb2-and-eb3-priority-dates-india-and-china/Bm9zqfdP

      Advance EB2 and EB3 priority dates for India and China

      This petition is for those who are here legally in the country working hard and paying taxes but are still in darkness and do not know how much more they have to wait to get their green cards.

      The current priority dates for EB2/EB3 India are 01SEP04/01NOV02. We have been living in uncertainity all these years with a small hope that our priority dates would move forward.

      It feels like a slap in the face to see the government give away green cards/citizenships to others while we wait for them indefinitely. We are highly skilled professionals who add value to the country and help the companies that sustain the economy. We have self-respect and deserve to be treated well. We kindly request the Obama administration to expedite the green card processing, for current and future applicants.

      Delete
    3. the link is expired...can you check ?

      Delete
  14. Please Advise! My H1B expires oct next year and I have about 2.5 months of time accrued outside the US on h1b. I found a new employer willing to sponsor Perm. Am i too late. Ive heard the 365 day is not a rule, its a suggestion. Since LC's are being adjudicated with 2-3 months and with an express I140 will I be safe?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please help! I did not recieve any response from anyone regarding this. My h1 expires in 11 months + i have like 10 weeks of recoup. The company has called me for one final interview. Is Perm processing still a possibility. Please help!

      Delete
    2. You will be cutting very close ! It will on depend on how long it will take for the labor department to process your LCA at the time you apply. Also, the company has to start it immediately, the ads have to go on time and the resumes reviewed and if required, interview conducted on time. Sooner the better !!!

      Delete
  15. Giving EADs for I-140 approved petitions should be reasonable given the impasse in priority dates movement. Why can't this be done and is there a reason for this to be a bother for the U.S. govt? Does this require enacting a new law or a simple procedural change from USCIS would do? Request Aditi and Ganesh to please comment on this.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The White House said it needs a change in law: https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petitions/!/petition/allow-seriously-backlogged-eb2eb3-beneficiaries-their-i-140-approved-file-i-485-and-apply-ead-ap/d3D62yTt?utm_source=wethepeople&utm_medium=response&utm_campaign=eb2eb3
      But, few law firms website disagree.

      Delete
  16. Please sign this one as well.

    Advance EB2 and EB3 priority dates for India and China
    This petition is for those who are here legally in the country working hard and paying taxes but are still in darkness and do not know how much more they have to wait to get their green cards.

    The current priority dates for EB2/EB3 India are 01SEP04/01NOV02. We have been living in uncertainity all these years with a small hope that our priority dates would move forward.

    It feels like a slap in the face to see the government give away green cards/citizenships to others while we wait for them indefinitely. We are highly skilled professionals who add value to the country and help the companies that sustain the economy. We have self-respect and deserve to be treated well. We kindly request the Obama administration to expedite the green card processing, for current and future applicants.

    URL - https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/advance-eb2-and-eb3-priority-dates-india-and-china/Bm9zqfdP

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The so called illegal immigrants may not add as much value as EB workers do but they are a good source of taxable income. Politicians might have realized that due to such heavy unauthorized employments, there must be a lot of tax evasions. And also they are there since there is a huge demand for such cheap workers for certain type of profession. So they instead increase the profitability of the businessmen without having to pay taxes. In this economy, it seems the politicians are trying to find all the ways to generate revenues and they found this one as killing multiple birds with one stone (vote bank, encouraging younger generations, some hidden agenda, revenue, ability to measure how much such unauthorized employment prevails since there is no such census to measure this as it was not possible earlier, etc.). US job market seems to be driven by demand and supply (as it does in EB based GC too) and it seems that there is a huge demand for these illegal workers (un/fortunately) and they better acknowledge that. The only sad part is that most of the illegal workers will come from the countries who share boundaries with US.

      Delete
  17. Hi Ambals,

    The demand data for Dec shows that there were only 225 visa prior to Jan 2005 which was used in the determination of Dec cut-off date. It also says in the last line that the data is as of Nov 6, 2012. This means that they are currently processing these 225 visas. If they process ~230 visas every month, then would it not mean that date should move at least by a few weeks since they will not have much inventory to process in Jan 13? Then why did they state in the bulletin there will not be any movement for India in coming months? There might be some unreported cases and there will be some porting, but would that be sufficient to clog it so much in one month? What am I missing here? Please provide your perspective on this.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes What you say is theoretically right. Traditionally, DOS has kept the dates as it is till June/July and then move it pretty fast. This had helped them get a good idea on spillover. Last year was anomaly. So my guess is, they will start moving from June 2013.

      Delete
  18. This has started to look very hilarious as EB3 (~47K) inventory is almost the same as EB2 (~42K) in the 485 inventory released recently. The difference is ~5K which is still too much but the backlog in 40Ks does not look very good. Another difference is that most of EB2 backlog is due to 2007-2010 priority dates where as EB3 is due to 2003-2006. So if the EB2 dates stagnate, it will become even closer to EB3 backlog and take the hope away even further for 2007 and beyond (not that porting is bad, it is just an observation).

    ReplyDelete
  19. Porting rate seems to be around 2K per month. So 25K portings will be done in a year which will completely eat the spill-overs. At this rate, most of the portings ( out of that 40k backlog ) will be completed at the end of 2014. EB2 will be able to move only in 2015 again.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2k, wow where did you get this number from?

      Delete
    2. Hey dude, if it was 2k per month, eb2 wont move in the next 6-9 years. Where did you get that number from.

      Delete
    3. Now check the demand data this year. The total number before Jan 1 2010, is increased by around 1200. That's the nnumber I was talking about. May be not 2K but 1200 is very bad too

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    4. 1200? Look at the latest data and look at your statement. You said 2k per month. Total pending 485's are approx 1600-1700 till end of 2008. That includes people who haven't ported. Please don't give people a heart attack by saying 2k portings a month

      Delete
  20. Here are the porting numbers for India...

    The number of EB3 to Eb2 portings in FY12 are 51,758 - 47354 - 2800 = 1604.
    Which is the total number of pending eb3s in Oct/11 - pending eb3s in Oct/12 - number of EB3 visas allocated per year.

    So 1604 porting visas is not a big deal.

    The deal is, USCIS says in FY12 India received 19000 spill EB2 visas. If that is the case, the pending EB2 visas should roughly go down from 40K to 20K at least, but it is still around 40K.

    I think that USCIS is playing hide and seek game. Its the time to wake up guys.


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes you're right. Porting is not the biggest deal. I think at the end of this year, the PD will be end 2008 or jan 2009. Hopefully they'll open up dates of 2010 next year for more people to get ead's. I know someone whose pd is 2007 and has been current twice but hasnt had his 485 processed because of retro

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    2. 19K EB2 visa is not solely for India. Apparently China's PD is in a better position than India. So it's possible China has consumed some from that 19k.

      Delete
  21. Well you may want check the murthy bulletin(2/3 months back ones). At least they said that 19K eb2 for India, meaning excluding China.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yes, you're right. 19k was only for eb2 india. Hopefully we may have more this time, since row is consistently current.

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    2. There must be some lie here from USCIS. If there was 19k only for India EB2, then how come the EB2 dates are so miserable?

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    3. Thats because no one wants to go back, lol. 19k for India is far less than what's added every year. That's why dates for India are so miserable. There is some porting too, but no proof yet what so ever thats its that heavy to clog the line

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  22. My EB2 India priority date is Jan 19th 2012. How sooner or later can I expect/hope to get EAD on hand and then the GC.

    Will it be 2014 or 2015 or later?

    Thanks in Advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Unfortunately if there is no reform or 3012, you're looking end of 2015 at its earliest. Could be worse

      Delete
  23. My EB2 India priority date is Jan 31, 2009. How sooner I can get the GC.

    ReplyDelete
  24. My PD is sep 15 2009 ; when can i expect it to be current

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If it's EB2I most likely 4 years to 6 years from priority date. Sep 15 2013 to Sep 15 2015. This assumes there is no immigration reform passed by OBAMA. There is likely to be some action within 2 years which will affect H-1B visa wait times positively.

      Delete
  25. My PD is September 22 2012, when will be my PD current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EB2 will likely take 4 years at the minimum and more likely 6 years. September 22 2014 to September 22 2016.

      Delete
  26. My PD is December 2010.? When can i expect ?

    ReplyDelete
  27. Looking at the demand data for this month's bulletin it's unclear how is it possible that there are still 275 cases before Jan 05? I understand there are portings but the how could portings be so evenly equal every month that only around 250-275 numbers remain before Jan-05 in every month ? Also numbers for other years keep increasing every month. If the priority date is sep-04, then how can newer 485s get added in before 06 or before 07 or 08? It's totally confusing to me. Some sort of USCIS scheme I believe

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dude, they had 2 million illegals file for deferred action. If they haven't hired significant resources, how will they keep up with deferred applications+EB2 India workload. EB2 will move either in March or April when chunk of defered action applications are done processing. BTW does anyone know the last date of deferred application filing?

      Delete
  28. My priority date is feb 18th 2005 EB2. Can you guys guess when it will be current?

    ReplyDelete
  29. My PD is Feb 2012, when can i expect GC or atleast EAD.

    ReplyDelete
  30. My priority date is Feb 12th 2012 EB2 India.When can i expect GC or at least EAD.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. wait for another 10 years you will get it.

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    2. LOL! Funny yet tragic.

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  31. It is 4 years from PD correct? So, my PD is Sept 2012 I can expect GC in Sept 2016 looks like

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 4 Years? Are you talking about EB1 or EB2-ROW? If you are India EB2, it's 10 years at current rate.

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    2. I am going to Canada

      Delete
  32. Does anyone really know how does priority dates calculation work? The demand data for Feb is published today. As you see there before Jan 2005, the count is same as last month = 275. But other years are increasing. The total count before Jan 2010, is increased by around 700. The question is how did this 700 applications get added? If the priority date is really 07/2004, any 485 application after that will not be entertained isnt it? Looks like they are still accepting 485s that means still we can still apply for EADs with a later than the priority date? I am totally confused

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  33. Best solution - once you have your 140 approval just put it in the filing cabinet and move on with life. No point even discussing this. I have totally given up. If something good happens, great else well, time will tell. Annoying!! Terrible.

    ReplyDelete
  34. I was talking about EB2I.10 Yrs that's lot of time :(

    ReplyDelete