Thursday, January 10, 2013

February 2013 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


February 2013 Visa Bulletin was released yesterday. Dates for EB2 India is 01 SEP 04 and EB2 China is 15 JAN 08. The cut-off for EB2-ROW, EB2-Mexico and EB2-Philippines is Current.

The good news here is that the EB2 China date has moved about 6 months from the start of this fiscal year (from Oct 2012). All the other countries are current. This means, we can still expect the bulk of visas from spillover to go to EB2 India category at the end of fiscal year in September 2013.
This does not mean the dates will go very far. The indications are clear from the demand data released today that porting from EB3 to EB2 is happening every month. Demand is still 275 for folks with priority date before Jan 1, 2005 -- which is same as last month irrespective of immigrant visas being given. Also, comparing last month's demand data to this month's, the cumulative demand prior to Jan 1, 2009 has increased from 23,175 to 23,550 for EB2 India.

Now the question is, when the dates will move for EB2 India and how much. I still feel there won't be any movement at-least till June visa bulletin. Then, it might move till early 2008 date in September 2013 visa bulletin.

Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 15 NOV 02 and EB3 China is 15 NOV 06. As expected, EB3 India is moving at one week or two weeks per month pace. For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change. The reason being there is no spill over to EB3 India category. Hence only about 2800 green cards are given for this category every year.

To view the February 2013 Visa Bulletin -- Please Click Here

To view the Demand Data -- Please Click Here

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73 comments:

  1. I have my I-140 approved and applying for EB2 Germany. I am about to apply for I-485.How much time does it take to get my green card since Germany is Current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you file your documents as per requirements, you should get your Green Card in 4 months.

      Delete
  2. Mr.Anonymous, it would max, at the very max, take an year. But 3 months is what I have heard.

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    Replies
    1. Will the EAD be immediate? as GC can take 3 months to 1 year.

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  3. Hi Ambals
    The question here is on the line 'prior to Jan 1, 2009 has increased from 23,175 to 23,550'. How does the number increase when the cutoff date is sep 2004? This clearly shows they are accepting 485 applications beyond the cutoff.
    My priority date is in 2008 June. I missed applying for 485 last year. Do you think I should give it a shot now?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You cannot apply now. You can apply only when your priority is current as per Visa Bulletin. The numbers are increasing because, folks have already applied for 485 when their PD was current, now porting.

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  4. The increase from 23,175 to 23,550 is happening because of people porting from EB3 to EB2.
    So, say if a person who originally filed under EB3 in 2003 now "upgrades" to EB2, he is now eligible to file for I-485 since he is current.

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  5. Your example is not correct. 2003 is well before cutoff date - sep/04. My question was why total numbers upto 2009 is increasing. Note that the number before 2005 is staying static at 275 every month. The other years - 06,07,08 are increasing. HOW?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As per your explanation, EB3 porting happening in the 2006,07,08 after 2005 are increasing. So that explains your question.

      In this case by (23,550 - 23,175 ) = 375 - Toal no. of porting cases as of Feb 13

      Hope I am right.

      So happy porting, happy spillover and happy waiting ?? :-)

      Delete
  6. Thanks for writing this blog. After reading the disappointing numbers every month, your blog provides something different to look at. Keep writing.

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  7. my PD is may 2012 when do u guys think that i can get my gc

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dont worry you will get it in 10 years...

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    2. LOL....looks like it is really gonna take 10 yrs with the current "incredible"movement of the dates
      (pun intended)

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  8. My PD is Jul 2008 and I guess I have another couple of years wait time.

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    Replies
    1. Your number should come near the end of fiscal year, in this case august-sept 2013 or worst case nov-dec 2013. When things go bad everyone just talks negative. When they were good everyone was flying high. This is a practical number based on inventory shown on USCIS website. There will probably be no movement until mar-apr bulletins this year so the negativity will continue.

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    2. You will get your EAD in Aug 2016.

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    3. Wow do you work for USCIS, since you dont have any basis for saying that this person will get ead in 2016. The person above you makes some sense since he's talking based on numbers. EAD can actually come anytime, it may even be this year since thats just based on how uscis will open the dates. He may not get 485 processed until 2-3 years from now, but may still get ead. My friend has ead and his dates were current twice but still on ead. I understand you are sad does not mean you spread your sadness everywhere.

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  9. Great Job aditi and Ganesh....Great analysis..keep up the good work on Green card

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  10. Good Job Ambals. You blog is very useful.

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  11. Great job analyzing. That's something not many people do very well. What you're saying makes sense, it provides hope AND it makes a lot of sense Ambals. Thank you!

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  12. So no one knows the answer to my question :) or is it too obvious that only I am missing it? How are the numbers in 2006,2007,2008 and 2009 increasing even though the cutoff date is Sep 2004? What am I missing ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Those numbers are increasing because people from EB3 have ported to EB2. The numbers you see in the USCIS website are the ones that have an approved I140. So that inventory will keep on increasing for dates even after cut off of 2004 since it has to do with I140 approval.

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    2. Very nice job in putting all the analysis forward! How many spillovers are expected per year to EB2 India in general (based on prev years' numbers)?

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    3. This year, ROW seems to be current and China doesn't have much balance (since more chinese people are going back to China). Hopefully it will be clear up 22-24k from EB2. I think the last 3-4 year average is 20k per year. This year there is a possibility of more spillover. I think porting is just as much as last few years, it just looks uglier since everyone's so desperate.

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    4. I agree with you on chinese people going back to China. I have been to Shanghai, and you gotta say that its already decades ahead of many US cities

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  13. When you say 'Also, comparing last month's demand data to this month's, the cumulative demand prior to Jan 1, 2009 has increased from 23,175 to 23,550 for EB2 India.' , does it mean 375 cases were ported from Eb3 to EB2 in 1 month period?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, not one month. Till Jan 1 2009

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    2. OK, thank you for your analysis, 375 portings in 3 months is not that bad. My PD is March 2008 and was not able to file 485 last year. So I am waiting for it to get current this year, hopefully. Thanks again!

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    3. @Satya: Good luck ! Hopefully you will be become current this fiscal year. Porting is 375 cases in one month, whose PD is before Jan 1, 2009 -- that is right.

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    4. Satya will definately be current and should be able to process his 485, if we have good spillover according to aditi/ganesh's analysis, pd might be close to your date

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  14. What is probability that the eb2 dates will retrogress even further ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Zero to None. If that happens, people will look at other alternatives.

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  15. My pd is August 2010 and guess for when I will get EAD? Or GC?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hopefully mid next year you might become current.

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    2. Probably by end of 2014 or beginning of 2015. You may get an ead but dates might be rolled back again. So dont expect 485 approvals, that might be worst

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  16. When the PD became current last year for 6-8 months for people in 2008 did anyone get GC or just ead?

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    Replies
    1. I know some people who have aproved I 485's. These people were smart, they had all paperwork ready. For example, one guy i know had his birth certificate and still had an affidavit from his parents ready. Most of the people got RFE because their birth certificates were not clear/confusing..Just like birth certificates are in our country

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    2. Yea, but did anyone get their GC's with PD 2008/2009?

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    3. GC only comes after you get an interview scheduled at the consulate in home country or through USCIS. The latter takes a lot of time. I personally know people who had 485 approvals with PD in 08. Getting a GC also depends on personal decision

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    4. Check http://www.trackitt.com -- there are lot of folks who are under EB2 India with PD in 2008, who have got their green card.

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  17. my pd is 2010 march and I got my ead but since I am doing my mba I want to change my job profile ...what is the best way to deal with this situation?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. you need to consult an immigration lawyer highlighting your specific scenario -- current job, future job, current company, future company all that...

      Delete
  18. My PD is June 2012, When do you think this date will be current :)?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As of now, the trend is people get their green card 5 years from their priority date. With the porting, we have to wait and watch.

      Delete
  19. My PD is July 2010, based on the current situation, when my date can become current under worst case scenario?

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    Replies
    1. Ambal,Thanks for replying. by when do you expect me to get an EAD based on current movement?

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    2. Probably sometime in 2014 you may be able to get EAD, if they open up dates like they did earlier. But anything is just speculation at this point. Wait for the Oct 2013 bulletin.

      Delete
  20. Hi Ambals,

    I keep asking this question but looking at the new demand data when do you think a PD of June 2005 (EB2 India) would become current? Thanks as always for for your feedback.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. With the current trend, it looks like July is when they will start moving the dates. I sincerely hope it would be earlier.

      Delete
  21. Hi Ambals
    Your work is really appreciated. I was reading about Comprehensive immigration reform that MIGHT start this year. Do you think there is any chance they will look into the EB2/EB2 backlog issues? Or is it only going to be all about illegal aliens? It's a shame that Eb2+Eb3 combined India has 50 thousand people waiting in the backlog. No one really cares about it. Soon China will clear their backlog and join what is called ROW. It will only be Indians struggling around. Do you think Obama administration are really going to do anything about it as part of CIR?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We sincerely hope there will be a provision for legal folks who are in EB backlog in the CIR. But, end of the day it is all politics. We have to wait and see. Last year, we came so close in recognizing cap-exempt through HR 3012, but eventually it didn't pass. There were STEM bills approved by House never went to Senate floor. Anything can happen !!!

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    2. One thing is sure, CIR will be the last time anyone will look at immigration issue. If EB backlog does not make it there it can never be fixed. I wonder why a bill cant be initiated again after it fails, meaning why cant 3012 be brought up again this year?

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    3. Trust me, pray that CIR does not happen, since it will benefit the guys who broke the law first. This will cause our dates to roll back or stuck in 2004 like they are because of defferred action. We are not many in numbers to cause a change of attitude politically. Hell, no one listens to us in our home country, i guess we dont own the right to express our frustration anywhere.

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    4. So you are saying the reason dates are not moving is they are busy processing deferred action? Then how is china moving or eb3 india moving slowly? Why do they choose only EB2 india not to move?

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    5. Because EB2 India is the chunk that's the most labor intensive for USCIS. USCIS may have its own reasons for moving EB3, and again its not like EB3 is moving by months. You're looking at handful of applications being processed. If EB2 date is moved say to a realistic date, 2006 or 2007, they will have 10k+ applications to be processed in 3-4 months

      Delete
  22. Hi Ambals
    I have a strange case here. I am EB2 India with PD 2009. I am based in London. Company wanted me to relocate and therefore started the Consular Processing mode GC. As you know in 2012 the dates became current they filed the last stage of CP which is called Immigrant Visa (IV) application. NVC took the payment for the application and I assumed they started processing that. Then the dates retrogressed. As it appears the dates wont become current for a long time now, it significantly delays my planned move to the US office. If company proposes me to move with H or L visa will that be safe? By 'safe' I mean, will I be able to apply EAD immidiately since my IV application is filed? The PD is not current so in theory EAD cannot be applied but in this case, since they have started IV application, will it be considered equivalent for EAD? If not then it means company has to cancel the IV process and wait for EAD. Isn't it? Your comments are highly appreciated

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I was also in similar situation, tried to initiate CP when I was in India. Dates restrogressed and now I am back in US on H1B. You can still file for I-485 when you come back to US and cancel your Consular Processing. Talk to your attorney and he/she should be able to help you in that process

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    2. Thanks Satya. If you dont mind could you please suggest on the below too?
      1. when you entered US in H1 again, was your PD current?
      2. Was immigrant visa applied, meaning in my case , date became current once, then I applied the visa ( final step) and then date retrogressed.
      3. When you say apply 485 again, that means it's only the 485 applicaiton, not the EAD. Right?
      4. Lastly, canceling CP and applying AOS again must have been cost sensitive to the company. How did you convince them to do that?

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    3. 1. When I entered US, my PD went back, it was no longer current
      2. CP was initiated, but it took 3 months for I-824 to be processed. By that time, dates retrogressed back
      3. I-485 and EAD are the same. When you apply for I-485 you will get an EAD as the first step and next you will get the GC.
      4. Totally depends upon your relationship with the company, in my case it worked out. Just tell them you don't want to risk Consular Processing.

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  23. I really want to see some change in our backlog.With the CIR coming in effect, is that only for the illegals, or still do we have a chance?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, they say people with MS and PhD from the US will be able to get a gc. Seems like a dream, but if they can give amnesty to illegals, people with education here deserve to be treated better. If that happens, pretty sure will clear up like 85% of eb2/eb3 queue. So if not directly hopefully will indirectly benefit from CIR. Again, this is just being optimistic since the main goal is to give illegals the benefit of CIR

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    2. The latest news says that the proposal created by 8 senators do have mention about backlog clearance and higher educated people's priority. But again, CIR might face loads of blocks by several political interests and eventually take years and years to complete.

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    3. Actually end of page 2, in the 5 page draft clearly says that all those who are legal here and waiting for a gc, will be given gc's before the ones that broke the law. read it on cnn.This means that 485 waiting inventory wil be cleared first. This should include eb3/eb2 row, india, china, etc. Frankly this inventory looks microscopic in front of the illegal numbers

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  24. Our pd is dec2004 in eb2...when can we expect our green card....?? Pls advice

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    Replies
    1. folks, this is a nice blog. thanks for all the insights.

      I too in the the same boat. My PD is Dec 14 2004 EB2 India, any chance dates will be current in March Visa bulletin/

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    2. I sincerely hope it will be current in March. But, in all reality it looks like July is when they will start moving.

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    3. Hopefully CIR will pass soon. If you have read the bill, it has various proposals that will make eb2/eb3 current. Frankly legal inventory looks like an ant in front of illegal numbers

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  25. Brace for retrogress for eb2-i ....

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  26. Hi,

    I am working for a company and has 3 year contract with them. Indian by citizenship. I am getting an opportunity to apply for my green card, but I am not willing to stay with this company for more than 3 years. What are the steps for green card application? and after what step I can change my company? Please reply. Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Hi,

    My brother's lawyer made mistake in early 2000 and filed for EB3. Everything was current at that time so we did not care too much. His PD is Nov 26, 2002 for India, which is current. His 485 was filed back in July 2007. he just told me taht even his PD is current fro April 2013 buletin, his file is not opened yet. My father is a heart patient and already has high BP after hearing this. Because he ws supposed to have his greencard in 2003 should the category had not retrogressed to 1996. Whatever it is, I am trying to find out what is the next step and what do we expect now. If someone is writing the story about how working of INS is affecting life of people by all this buerocracy, amazing results would be found. My question is what next? We are just keeping our fingers crossed that everything goes ok this time and does not go in backlog again. How long do we have to wait again?

    ReplyDelete