Monday, February 11, 2013

March 2013 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


March 2013 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. Date for EB2 India is 01 SEP 04 and EB2 China is 15 FEB 08. The cut-off for EB2-ROW, EB2-Mexico and EB2-Philippines is Current.

After a very long time, the visa bulletin offers prediction. The prediction for April to June is as follows from the Visa Bulletin link given below:


Employment Second:
Worldwide:  Current
China:  Three to six weeks 
India:  No movement.  Despite the established cut-off date having been held for the past five months in an effort to keep demand within the average monthly usage targets, the amount of demand being received from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) Offices for adjustment of status cases remains extremely high.  Should the current rate of demand continue, it is likely that at some point the cut-off date will need to be retrogressed in an effort to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit.  


The good news here is the rapid movement predicted for EB2 China. But the bad news is, it says EB2  India might retrogress even back. We sincerely hope that does not happen. Other than that, the no movement for EB2 India till June is pretty much in alignment with what we have been thinking all along.

The demand data for this month has been released earlier. Even that show higher demand than last month. In this case, even the cumulative demand prior to Jan 1, 2005 has raised to 300 and the cumulative demand prior to 1 Jan 2009 is 23,975.

What will happen next ? Like mentioned in the earlier posts, USCIS/DOS has gone back to their earlier strategy -- where in they wait till last quarter of the FY to determine the number of visas to give for EB2 India and China. Given this, I expect lot of movement in July. Going by today's data, it might go to 1 Jan 2008. But it will depend on the spill over and the number of porting.

Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 22 NOV 02 and EB3 China is 22 JAN 07. As expected, EB3 India is moving at one week or two weeks per month pace. For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change. The reason being there is no spill over to EB3 India category. Hence only about 2800 green cards are given for this category every year.

One thing that is different this year -- there is revived talk about Immigration everywhere  -- in the media, in Washington, in House and in Senate. Lets all hope, at least one of the bills getting introduced gets passed that will help clear this backlog.

To view the March 2013 Visa Bulletin -- Please Click Here

To view the Demand Data -- Please Click Here

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52 comments:

  1. Ambals - Thanks for your posting. I wonder why you think and I quote from your post "Given this, I expect lot of movement in July. Going by today's data, it might go to 1 Jan 2008."

    If the visa bulletin states that we may have retrogression meaning the date may move before Sept 2004 for EB-2 India, what data are you looking at to still predict that it might go to 1 Jan 2008 by Sept. I don't doubt your analysis, just curious to know and hopeful that what you are saying is still true.

    Can you please explain? Thanks much!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is my thought process: Last few years EB2 India has got about 20,000 GCs. This year, there is more consumption in EB5 and EB1 category, leading to less spill over. For the sake of it, lets assume it will be 9,000. Then, typically, USCIS/DOS will give 3000 in July. Going by today's demand data -- it might go to 1 Jan 2008.

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    2. Spillover is unlikely to help the situation. The porting numbers are extremely high. At this rate ported applciations will consume majority of the spillovers. Unless laws change, going forward portings will continue at this rate every single year. The future for EB2 India is really gloomy. Now we feel it was better to be EB3:)

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  2. Hi Ambals,

    Thanks for your blog. You provide very useful information.

    I've one question about the demand data and its allocation:

    If we assume a spillover of let's say 21k this year for eb2.

    With an average family size of 3, only 7k entries will be serviced by the end of this year then.

    Please correct me if I misunderstood it.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Right... but in most cases the family size of 3 is already included in the demand data....

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  3. From the last 4 months demand data, it looks like following are the monthly total cumulative incements.
    Jan bulletin - 1175
    Feb bulletin - 675
    Mar bulletin - 525
    If USCIS is really processing every month around 250 applications, then the porting numbers are staggering! Already total amount of porting has reached very close to yearly quota - 2800. That perhaps has prompted USCIS to think of a retrogression. There is a possibility that USCIS actually didnt look at EB2 india last few months because they were busy doing dream act stuff. I think that was the case because the demand numbers before 2005 was static at 275 for the last 2 months which is suspicious. Now they had a chance to look at EB2 India and that blew their minds off :). In any case the porting number is extremely high. At this rate EB2 will longer be EB2. It's going to be EB1 and 'lower EBs' which is mix of EB2 and EB3.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. I think EB2 India is still far better than EB3 India. Nowhere close. See the demand and the I-485 inventory numbers. We are seeing 40,000+ just till Aug 2007.

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    2. Despite the heavy porting as mentioned by you in Jan, Feb and March, the numbers before 2005 have only increased by 25 to 300 so then with a quota of 2800 for EB2I, why does USCIS think it would need to retrogress the Sept 2004 date further back?

      Any explanation?

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    3. I think they meant the total porting number, not only the cases before 2005. Total number is going close to 2800, yearly limit. It's also possible that contrary to the popular belief about Dream Act, they might be actually processing EB2 India every month and it's so happening that they are only being able to process portings with date before 2005. The monthly quota is 2800/12 = 233. So, just imagine there were actually 233 more portings ( all before 2005 date ) everymonth in addition to the ones listed above.

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  4. Is there a way, we can find out if our cases have been pre-adjucated and only waiting for visa numbers ?

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  5. Ambals - as always, great analysis. Couple of quick questions:
    1. When uscis says " chance of retrogression" , do they mean after applying the spillover or now in the next 2-3 months ?
    2. what happens in Oct 2013 ? Will the date remain stagnant at the "date after applying spillover" or will it move @ small pace e.g. 233/month ?
    3. Wont pre-adjudicated cases consume all spillover which will leave first time filing people with earlier PD no chance of getting a GC even though they had earlier PD than the pre-adjudicated case guys.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1. I think they mean in next 3 months, before applying the spillover.
      2. It is too early to talk about next FY.
      3. I don't think so...

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    2. aditi, ganesh - thoughts/answers on these q's please?

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    3. I think in Oct 2013 (which is the start of FY 2014), the dates will go back again. Look at the current rate of I-485 filings. They say they are not able to meet the demand and may have to retrogress. The case will be the same even in 2013 Oct, because Portings will never stop and the available quota at the start of FY is only 2800. They will keep on coming. I am very certain they have to move the dates back to keep the number of 485's in check. Very unfortunate, but this whole GC process is a big mess!

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  6. Hi Aditi and Ganesh..

    Thanks for the updates from time to time. I enjoy reading them.
    A request - when you have some time. could you write a blog for using AC21. I have EAD but dont want to invoke it for fear of getting RFE.

    your tips might help many ppl.

    Thanks again..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, Aditi & Ganesh, can you please write something about this. Since a candidate is on his own while changing jobs on his EAD (since he cannot ask his current company lawyers about this), is it recommended that he hire his own lawyer. So get a lawyer's help with verifying if the new job position fits in the "similar job description" category and all the way till invoking the AC-21.

      Thanks.

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    2. I have used AC-21 and I am currently on EAD. Yes, we need to have our own personal immigration lawyer, that is always better. That is what I have done.

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    3. Thanks for the quick reply.

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  7. Do you have historical data of how many spillovers happened over the past 3 or 4 years? That may help us get an approximate idea of not accurate. My PD of March 2008 looks dim now with all these portings eating up the numbers :(

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    Replies
    1. I believe 19K last year. Not sure about years before that.

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  8. this year USCIS expects to allocate only 13k of spill over VISAs to india + china.... Assuming India gets 7k of the spill over + 2.8k or original allotment -- appx 10k of EB2 for 2013 EB2 India....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Where did you get this information of 13K from? If it is 13K India will get all the 13K, because China is already forward at 2008.

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  9. http://uscis.topimmigrationnews.com/2013/01/updated-visa-bulletin-prediction-for.html -- 13k availability for spillover in FY13

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am not sure how that author got the 13K number. He/She has not given any source.

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    2. Also, India and China will not have same spill over number this year since China is already Feb 2008. So it is more likely Inida will get majority of spill over.

      Correct me if I am wrong Ambals.

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    3. They have updated the source of 13,000 spillover in that link above.

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    4. I don't think 13,000 is right. See both the links below does not say anything about 13,000:

      http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/10/24/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-24-2012/

      http://www.murthy.com/2012/10/25/visa-bulletin-predictions-for-eb2/

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    5. Please check this link regarding estimated 13K spill over by DOS.

      http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/priority-date-predictions-for-fy13/

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    6. Thanks for the link. I agree with one of previous comments, China has moved to Feb 2008 already, which means EB2 India is going to get most of the spillovers if not all.

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    7. Wow that will be really surprising. This document is dated last year November. They can predict the spillover numbers so easily? 13K minus China, is far too less to help any movement. Portings itself will be around 5-6K this year.

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  10. The DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) has consumed almost all of the resources at USCIS for FY 2013 and hence the EB2 India priority date is static at Sep 2004.

    With amnesty for 12 million illegals next on the agenda, do you think that this retrogression is advanced notification that the EB2 India is what EB3 was from the last decade. In other words, the EB2 priority date is being retrogressed, lack of visa numbers due to porting, lack of resources use to DACA and amnesty, will EB2 India will be new EB3.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't think it is a resource issue. It is more how USCIS/DOS operates on EB2 India issue. Except last FY, this has been trend for many years -- opening it up in last quarter.

      Even with porting, as long as there is spillover, EB2 India will not become EB3 India anytime see. See the numbers, we are talking about 40,000 even before 1 Sept 2007 date for EB3 India.

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  11. Hi Aditi and Ganesh,

    Thanks for your great blog. You provide very useful information and great analysis.

    I have one question:
    My I-140 Priority Date is June 2007 in EB2. Yet, I did not apply I-485, since the date is not current. When is the tentative date to file my I-485?

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  12. Hello Ambals,

    Any news on immigration reforms which can help us ?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. From the looks of it all the new immigration proposals has something for high-skilled. It just has to pass the houses and become law. We don't know when that will happen.

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  13. I am not sure if there is a resource issue at USCIS. Based on DOS VISA bulletin the dates have not moved because of demand in EB2. I think July is the earliest one can get a decent look at spill over because most of the I-485s applied in july or later in this FY will not get adjudicated in this FY. If there is a spill over, which I think we will get some idea in july then DOS will allot them based on what is already pending with them as requested by USCIS and the priority dates, which might go more to India or might be comparable to China. In past, DOS, moved dates dramatically like in early 2012 and then in the mind of FY 2012 they retrogressed and then made it unavailable. With that in mind I think they are playing safe this year and also the above normal porting from EB3 to EB2 has the impact.
    It surprises me that they want to play so safe that they don't mind retrogressing the current Sept 1 2004 date let alone moving it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes I agree. I think it is not a resource issue.

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  14. Very good article. Can you please comment, your expectation of when March 2008 priority date will be current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At the current rate, it is more likely in later part of 2014.

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  15. Any possibility for Oct 2007 PD, in September 2013?

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    Replies
    1. Yes. Absolutely. I am hoping it will be earlier than that.

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    2. Ambals - I am confused why you feel confident PD of oct, 2007 will be current only in sept 2013 but not PD of 2008. Any reason why you sure PD 2007 will clear this year ?

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    3. This is my thought process: Last few years EB2 India has got about 20,000 GCs. This year, there is more consumption in EB5 and EB1 category, leading to less spill over. For the sake of it, lets assume it will be 9,000. Going by this month's demand data there are 7,300 folks before Jan 1, 2008. Given that they might have given about 1,200 GCs till date and giving some buffer for more porting, I am confident about 2007 but not 2008.

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    4. ambals - agreed but do take into account the porting of atleast 300/month based on history. That will likely take another 300*9 months = 2700 or 3k visas. Given that, do you still think it will clear entire 2007PD or only half of 2007PDs?

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    5. Ambal,

      I think Inida Eb2 should get more than 9k, conisdering last year spill over got split between India and China equally. This year it will not be the case.

      Also, Do you know what is this 7,300 number means? Is it mean that many I485 had been submitted to USCIS or that many i-140 had beed approved and expecting to submit i-485?

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  16. Hi...Any idea for Jun 2010 PD?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Too early to tell now... will get a better idea after Sept 2013 Visa Bulletin is released.

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  17. Thanks for the wonderful analysis, Ambals! I follow your blog regularly and your calculations are reflected in each and every VB. What is the probability of Nov 6, 2007 becoming current this year? Any hopes?

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  18. Does anyone know where to get the number of VISA alloted to a country in the current FY. I am not sure why AILA has not requested DOS to publish this along with demand data.

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  19. Hope is only light which guides our lives at all times. Without it many would end depressed - Proverbial Saying

    This whole thing has become like a Hollywood Drama with twists and turns in the story.

    Thanks Ganesh and Aditi for providing insight. Keep up the good work.

    ReplyDelete