Earlier this month, DOS updated the Visa Statistics links, thus giving the official FY 2012 numbers.
According to this, these are the number of Green Cards EB2-India folks have got:
FY 2012 -- 19,726
FY 2011 -- 23,997
FY 2010 -- 19,961
FY 2009 -- 10,106
FY 2008 -- 14,806
In FY 2012, these are the numbers:
EB4 -- 7,478
EB5 -- 7,641
EB1 -- 39,387
EB2 -- 50,593
EB3 -- 39,549
Total -- 144,648
Generally, the spillover works this way --> EB4 to EB5 to EB1 to EB2. In EB2 , all the EB2 ROW excess numbers going to EB2 India and China. Also, the law is in such a way that numbers has to go to most demand country. So, EB2 India will get all the spill overs till it reaches EB2 China PD date. Then, they will go hand in hand.
Let us do some extrapolation. Lets assume there will be about 300 porting per month. So, it will be 3600 there for full FY 2013. Also, from the above data EB2 - India has got about 39% of total EB2 numbers.
I think the best case scenario will be, if EB2 India gets the same as last year about 20,000. In this case, the PD will go as far as 01-AUG-09 in Sept VB, based on the Jan inventory data. But, from various lawfirm websites we are hearing that this is not possible -- as EB5 demand, EB1 demand and EB2 ROW has increased tremendously. If we assume, there is same number of immigrant visas are given for EB4 and if EB2 India gets about 25% of total EB2 number (45,188), with spillover total EB2 India will be about 15,000. This will make the PD move to 01-APR-08. I feel this is more optimal and can happen. According to me, the worst case scenario will be, EB2 India getting 15% of the total EB2 number. This still will bring the number to about 10,000 and moving the dates to 01-JAN-08 by Sept 2013 Visa Bulletin.
Of course, there are lot of assumptions here as in the number of porting, EB4 demand staying the same and EB2 ROW's spillover. We need to wait and watch how it spans out.
To view the Visa Statistics at DOS website -- Please Click Here
To view the Jan I-485 inventory data at USCIS website -- Please Click Here
To view the latest predictions from Capitol Immigration Lawgroup -- Please Click Here