Friday, September 6, 2013

What might happen in next visa bulletin ?


October 2013 Visa Bulletin is of special significance as it will be the first bulletin for Fiscal Year 2014. 

October 2012 Visa Bulletin had 01 SEP 04 as cut-off date for EB2 India. September 2013 Visa Bulletin had date of 15 JUN 08.

Now, for EB2 India, I can think of 3 possible scenarios:

1. It stays the same 15 JUN 08 and starts moving in last quarter of FY 2014.
2. It moves back to some date, say, 01 MAR 05 and starts moving depending on the porting trends.
3. It moves back to 01 SEP 04 and starts moving depending on the porting trends.

First one will be the best case scenario. Second is the most likely. It totally depends on what strategy DOS wants to adopt next fiscal year. Over the past few years, they have different strategies. I believe they have settled on one like the scenario 2.

For EB3 India, I believe it will keep going forward. It should move at one or two weeks per visa bulletin. It will move at a faster pace if there is more porting from EB3 to EB2. 

March 2005 has 2848 applicants as per July I-485 pending inventory data on EB3 India. This might be a significant number for EB2 India cut off date. The new updated inventory expected to release next month, should give better idea on pending data for EB3 and EB2 and porting. 


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64 comments:

  1. But last month bulletin says it might not move fwd and some point in new fiscal year may go back. I think they may stay for another few months

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hey Ambals,

    My PD is Oct 2010. Would it take another 4-5 years of those dates to get current? Whats your take. Just to get an understanding of how long the wait will be.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Current trend is around 6 years from your Priority Date.

      Delete
  3. Is there a chance of the PD being Current for India...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't think so. As per last pending inventory there are more than 28,000 applications after June 2008 for EB2 India. So, they have enough inventory.

      Delete
  4. Ambals,

    Heard from some people that there are less people filling GC between 2008 to 2011. Is that true? Can that help moving dates fast for EB2 India?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This theory is based on the fact that the economy was down during this time, and some big corporations esp in Finance sector were not filing GC's. However, the theory will be proved/dis-proved by the demand data which will be out soon. So have to wait and watch.

      Delete
    2. I-485 pending inventory and LCA data suggests it is very less different over the years. Also, with porting it will be pretty much be the same.

      Delete
  5. Ambals,

    If my priority date gets current and is there any possibility my employer/lawyer don't file i-485 for personal reasons?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Employer can decide how they want as it is employment based petition.

      Delete
  6. Hi Ambals,

    My PD is 04/04/08 and as you are aware it became current again last month. I had already filed for my I-485 a couple of years ago (when it was current for a brief period of 3 months, after which it got retrogressed), have had my finger printing as well as replied to an RFE (all happened 2 years ago). My question is what steps should i take now? WHat happens if they retogress again in the next bulletin? Am i stuck again for eternity?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The good news is, your priority date is current in October as well.
      From your side, you can call and talk to USCIS and ask if your case is pre-adjudicated and confirm if your address is correct.
      You can also contact your local congressman or senator's office and see if they can check your application status.

      Delete
  7. once you have I-140 approved, then its no more upto the employer. You can file your own I-485

    ReplyDelete
  8. Priority date is june 31st 2008. when will it be current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mostly July 2014. May be earlier with the DOS trying different strategy.

      Delete
  9. My pd is dec 2008 eb2 india. Any chance if it becomes current this year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes. Very high chance in September 2014.

      Delete
  10. Hello,

    Based on your prediction with scenario 1 above for ocotber 2013,do you think the USCIS will not run out of the visa numbers by the end of this month?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They are doing their level best to use all the visa numbers for this fiscal year, by the end of this month.

      Delete
  11. Is it true that eb3 to eb2 porting creating a problem
    for eb2 category people ???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don't worry will not cause any delay as there are more visa# under EB2

      Delete
  12. Well Oct VB is out..All dates are same as Sept...

    ReplyDelete
  13. Oct visa bulletin is out...
    India EB-2 Remains same: 06/15/2008

    ReplyDelete
  14. Thank you Ambals. Your first case prediction was correct. The date stayed the same for Oct-2013 bulletin too.

    ReplyDelete
  15. So Looks like its 15-JUN-2008 best case scenario!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  16. Hi Ambals,

    My priority date is Sept 2007 EB2-I. Does it mean that I would get my GC this year itself since the dates are current continuously for 3 months?

    Thank You for your assistance.

    Regards,
    Raj.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wow its been current for sometime now.Did you try calling them and opening a Service Request.People with PDs after you already received them.

      Delete
  17. October Visa Bulletin Released

    India EB-2 Remains same: 06/15/2008, China: 09/15/2008
    India EB-3=09/22/2003

    ReplyDelete
  18. Yay- what are the chances of getting GC for first time filler PD is August 2007

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You should get by end of October. The chances becomes even more brighter, if the dates stays the same in November as well.

      Delete
  19. Great!!! 1st prediction came true and good job. What are the predictions for the EB2 and EB3 priority dates for the last quarter of 2014(Aug-Oct 2014)?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Both totally depends on porting.
      As per today's available data, in the last 5 years, EB2 India has got minimum 10,000 GCs and maximum 24,000 GCs. Assuming 6000 porting and if 10,000 are available for EB2 India, then it will go to about 01 OCT 08 by Sept 2014. Assuming 3000 porting and if 25,000 are available, then it will go to about 01 DEC 09 by Sept 2014.

      Delete
  20. and chances of getting GC for first time filler PD is May 2008 .. Please?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If the date stays current for one more bulletin, there is a very high chance.

      Delete
  21. Based on the October Visa bulletin it Stays as it was which is Jun 2008. Is it ok to expect to stay like this till end of FY 14 as Ambals predicted as Option 1..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes. It can stay the same as long as porting is under control.

      Delete
  22. Check out the October 2013, visa bulletin. The date is June 2008.

    ReplyDelete
  23. My PD is Dec 2007. I am porting from EB3 to EB2 now and just got my Labor eb2 approved. But the stupid Lawyers are taking some time in reviews. All docs have been collected. If the filing happens this months how soon can i get the EAD or say the GC? Sometimes the GC could be sooner if numbers are available? Am i right?
    It has been a frustrating wait of 6 years.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EAD should come in regular processing time, say 60 days, irrespective of whether your date is current or not. From the time you file, if your date is still current, you can expect GC in 3 about months. That depends on time it takes to review and process your case.

      Delete
    2. My new I-140 is going in premium so that will get done in 2 weeks hopefully. Does that helps the EAD case too?? I mean can that come before 2 months? I have a good offer from another company and only holding up for this EAD and GC to be completed. I was hoping if i get my GC by Dec 10 at-least i can give them a start date.

      Delete
    3. Six? Our PD is March 2011....2.5 years into it and 7 years from it - so close to 10 years. It is a joke!

      Delete
  24. Hi Ambals,
    Thanks for your wonderful work,you are doing such an awesome work.I have a question about my wife work visa.She is on a H-4 visa,she has finished her Masters in Nursing in India and going to finish the nursing exams here.What visa she needs to get to work here in US? or does she need to get EAD ?

    ReplyDelete
  25. )
    Employment- Based

    All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed
    CHINA- mainland born INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
    1st
    C

    C

    C

    C

    C
    2nd
    C
    15SEP08 15JUN08
    C

    C
    3rd 01JUL10 01JUL10 22SEP03 01JUL10 15DEC06
    Other Workers 01JUL10 22SEP04 22SEP03 01JUL10 15DEC06

    ReplyDelete
  26. Good Job Ambals your predictions are 100% accurate,Could you please provide your Analysis on the Oct 2013 Bulletin.

    Also when the EB2I PD Oct 2009 current next time?

    Thanks in advance for your time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is a possibility it might be current Sept 2014.

      Delete
    2. Thanks Ambals,Appreciate your quick feedback.

      Hope you will continue to manage this blog for a long period of time.

      Delete
  27. OCT 2013 visa bulletin is out. Please post your analysis.

    ReplyDelete
  28. My PD is Jun 2008. I spoke to L2 officer and she said my case was preadjucated and assigned to officer for review.
    Any thoughts on how long it will take from the time it assigned to officer.any chance of file being leftout even at this stage with the reason of visa number non availability.

    do they assign the visa number before the officer review or after the completion of final review ?

    And also with the Oct bulletin also become current for June 2008, Is FY 2013 Spillover going be used in October month also even though it falls under FY 14 ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you don't get it this month, you have a very high chance of getting it next month. You being current next month is big good news.

      Delete
    2. Hey Ambals,

      I got CPO email last friday, Thanks very much for your replies and superb work by providing lot of information to GC seekers. Great going.

      Delete
  29. Any chances of getting GC this year for first time filers?
    Please see the SR response below. It looks like 2013 visas seem to be exhausted

    The Department of State has informed U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) that all employment-based immigrant visas have been distributed for fiscal year 2013.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Hey Ambals thanks for the great updates guys! Btw can anyone tell me how to get hold of a human when calling USCIS cusomer service. Everytime I call I just get an automated status update and no options of getting a live person. My PD is feb 2008 and I didn't get my GC yet! Looks like people with PD after me already got theirs! Any idea when mine wud come? Thank you! Kannan

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Try this method -- http://immigrationroad.com/resource/check-uscis-case-status-phone.php

      Delete
  31. Hi Ambals,
    Thanks for all your help with predictions and giving hope to some of us. I have a PD of 2006 and was current since August. I got an RFE in the 3rd week of August which I responded to in the first week of Sept itself and it turned to RFE review. In your experience how long does it take them to review an RFE case? The dates are still current in October, but its been three weeks since RFE has been submitted and nothing has budged. Latest is that there are no visas for FY13. So losing hope right now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You might still get the RFE cleared and get your GC in October. Call USCIS and check on your RFE status.

      Delete
  32. Hi Ambals, I need your help here please..

    Could you please help me understand this? Very confused.The website below says that the dates for EB2I could move in the Nov bulletin to August. Is that possible?
    http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/visa-bulletin-predictions-work-sponsored.php

    Also my PD is June 20, 2008 EB2. Any idea when it could get current?
    Please respond...thank you! Meghna

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My feeling is that, it will stay the same in november and depending on numbers, it might retrogress in Dec.
      June 20, 2008 hopefully will become current in July 2014.

      Delete
  33. In Nov 2013 VB - do u think EB2 India will stay at June 15 2008 or progress to Aug/Sept 2008 or retrogress?

    ReplyDelete
  34. Hello Ambals,

    In Nov 2013 VB - do u think EB2 India will stay at June 15 2008 or progress to Aug/Sept 2008 or retrogress?

    ReplyDelete
  35. Hello Ambals,

    Have you read this article from Murthy.com. As per this, there is going to be a severe retrogression. I wanted to check if you have heard anything about this - http://www.murthy.com/2013/10/24/newsflash-eb2-india-retrogression-in-december/

    ReplyDelete