Thursday, January 9, 2014

February 2014 Visa Bulletin and Analysis

February 2014 Visa Bulletin was released yesterday.

EB2:

Date for EB2 India is 15 NOV 04 and EB2 China is 08 JAN 09. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

The good news is EB2 China keeps moving forward. One more month this time.

I think EB2 India dates is going to stay the same till June 2014 Visa Bulletin. It might start moving big from July 2014.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:



EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 01 SEP 03 and EB3 Philippines is 15 APR 07 and all other countries is 01 JUN 12.

Good news here is all countries except India and Philippines are at 01 JUN 12. Also, their corresponding dates have moved 2 months from last Visa Bulletin. For Philippines it has moved 2 months. No movement for EB3 India.

We have to wait and see when they will move EB3 India dates. From the inventory data, they have 1637 applications pending for 2003 alone, whose dates are before 01 SEP 03. That explains why the date is 01 SEP 03 as for the whole FY they can give only 2962 Immigrant Visas to give for EB3 India.

New I-485 inventory is expected this month. That might throw some light on EB3 India movement. We will keep a watch on that.

Demand Data:

There is no demand data yet. The demand data has not be released after Oct 2013.

Links:

You can see the official January 2014 Visa Bulletin here - http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6242.html

You can see the official Demand Data here -http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

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105 comments:

  1. A really unfortunate state of affairs for EB3-I.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thank you for the analysis ambals as always doing a great job. What is the chance for july 2 2009 EB2 I this year? Sure shot in early 2015? appreciate your inputs.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Surely by Sept 2015. There is chance, it might happen Sept 2014 as well.

      Delete
  3. Ambals, I saw the below notes in visa bulletin, can you explain us what is this about, does it effect on EB2 India movement in FY 2014. Thanks for your efforts.

    "the 10,000 EW numbers available for a fiscal year are to be reduced by up to 5,000 annually beginning in the following fiscal year. This reduction is to be made for as long as necessary to offset adjustments under the NACARA program. Since the EW cut-off date reached November 19, 1997 during Fiscal Year 2001, the reduction in the EW annual limit to 5,000 began in Fiscal Year 2002. "

    ReplyDelete
  4. When usually approval comes after case is assigned to adjudicating officer and does that means that all checks and reviews are done except final review by officer? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes and the date has to become current.

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    2. How long it takes to get an approval after date is current and case is assigned to adjudicating officer?

      Delete
  5. Ambals,

    I visit your blog page almost every day to see your responses to questions and also looking for some updated analysis. You are doing a great job.

    My PD is 11Dec2013-EB3I. What is your gut feel regarding when I will get GC in my hand?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. his gut feelin is, u ll never get gc unless immigration reform is done.

      Delete
    2. If the priority date is 11 DEC 2003 EB3 India, then I am hoping by the end of this year.
      If the priority date is 11 DEC 2013 EB3 India, then it is preferable to look for porting to EB2.

      Delete
    3. Hi ambal

      when do u expect for eb2 india may 2011 pd date. can you please let me know a prediction.

      Delete
    4. Thanks Ambals. I meant to write 11Dec2003 (by mistake I wrote 2013).

      Delete
    5. Ambals...when you said "by the end of this year" did you mean end of calendar year (Dec 2104) or USCIS FY (ie., Sep 2014)

      Delete
    6. Ambals...when you said "by the end of this year" did you mean end of Calendar Year (ie., Dec 2014) or end of USCIS FY (Sep 2014)

      Delete
  6. For EB2 India -- may 2011 -- we don't know yet. We have inventory data only till April 2010.
    Generally, it takes about 6 years from your priority date to get GC for EB2 India.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. HI Ambal,

      one more doubt. since it moved to april 2010, does it have any chance in 2014 to move till may 2011 for a short period with spillover.

      Delete
    2. Yes. When the date comes closer to April 2010, they might open it up for one year to get I-485 inventory. May be late 2015.

      Delete
  7. EB2 India with Priority date of Sept 2008. Any chance of getting GC this year?

    ReplyDelete
  8. I read from another website that the october demand data only include inventory until aug 2007 although data says til jan 2013.how true is this ambals? Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For EB3 India, applicants who have proririty date of Aug 2007 or earlier have filed I-485. It never became current for applicants whose priority date is after that.

      Delete
    2. Is it also true for eb3 phils demand data? Do you think movement in eb3phil will continue throughout fy 2014?thank u ambals.

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    3. Yes. I think EB3 Phils should move throughout.

      Delete
  9. Hi ambal,

    I havd my priority date in july 2013 in eb3 row category. When do u think it would be current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is moving at a pace of 2 months at a time. We need to wait and see how the demand is.

      Delete
  10. Any predictions for Spill overs to EB2 India in 2014? Also what are chances of June2009 EB2 I in Late 2014?

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hi,

    My Priority date is EB2 Jan 2011...Please let me know when can I get my EAD??????...I'm not worried about GC..Just wanna leave my fu....current company....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi, my case was approved in Octo ,2007 EB3 status, what would be my PD?

      Delete
    2. It is hard to predict when it will be come current. For GC, the general trend has been 6 years for EB2 India applicants.

      Delete
  12. Hi,

    My Priority date is EB2 Jan 2011...Please let me know when can I get my EAD??????...I'm not worried about GC..Just wanna leave my fu....current company....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When the EB2 India date comes closer to May 2010, they will open it up for inventory. So, may be late 2015, you should might current to get EAD.

      Delete
  13. Is October 2008 EB2 India a lock this year? I am hoping to finally get through this year.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hello Ambals, Great Job helping us understand stuff in simplified language. Please keep it going. Your blogs are lifeline many like me. Thank you!!

    That said, you mentioned that in a FY only 2962 visas are available for EB3-I. And currently 1637 applications are pending with dates before 01 Sept. 2003.

    Q1: Will this 1637 applications be part of the available 2962 visas for YR-2014?
    Q2: I pray not but, do you foresee any possibility of further retrogression of EB3-I dates?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A1: Yes.
      A2: I don't think so. I sincerely hope they double check their inventory data and remove all who have ported from EB3 to EB2.

      Delete
    2. Based on your answer to Q1. Would it be wrong to say that all the available visas from 2014 would be used up by people with Priority Dates of 2003? And may be some from 2003 will still endup pushed into 2015 quota?

      Delete
    3. Yes. Unfortunately, if the inventory is correct and no porting by folks in 2003. That will be the case.

      Delete
  15. Hi.. thanks for your input by creating this blog.. our priority date is Oct 2010.. u think we should start collecting documents needed to file l485..? Still, wen u think it will go current..?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Once they reach May 2010 date, they will open it up to get inventory. It is better idea to start collecting documents now and keep.

      Delete
  16. Thanks for your block Ambalas, its great and informative. Quick question -

    People who have EID receive priority in receiving/processing GC? (Eg. Person 1 Priority Jan 2009 (Converted from EB3 to EB2) without EID, Person 2 priority March 2009 with EID – if dates are current for both who will get priority in GC processing and receiving?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. GC processing is suppose to happen based on I-485 receive date.

      Delete
  17. Hi Ambals, been a regular reader of your blog. Only place I could find which relied purely on numbers. Thanks for your time in writing and researching. My priority date is May 2010 EB2 I. Any predictions on when can we be current ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Current trend is about 6 years. We have to see how far it goes in Sept 2014 and then, we can get a clear picture.

      Delete
  18. My priority date in 23rd Sept 2003 in eb3 India category. When do you think it would be current? Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hopefully, within next few months... You are almost there.. Sit back & relax! :)

      Delete
  19. Ambals, Thanks for ur blog.

    My EB3 priority is Oct 2008, recently converted to EB2, don’t have EID and need fresh I-485 when dates are current, what is ur expectation on my GC.?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EB2 India, hopefully it will become current in June 2014 and you will get your card in 3 months.

      Delete
  20. Hi Ambals,

    I have got a very perplexing question to ask.
    My priority date is Jan 20, 2010. trackitt.com has a GC predictor. When I used that in Sep 2013, my GC date was showing as Mar 2015, in Nov 2013 it showed as April 2015, in December 2013 it showed NOV 2015 and when i checked today it is showing DECEMBER 2015..

    Is this right? I posted a query on this in trackitt but they have not responded.

    What is your guess on my Priority date to be current.

    Thanks for your time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Current trend is around 6 years from your priority date for EB2 India.

      Delete
  21. If some of below in a piece-by-piece fashion has been taken care then what would be the help for EB2 india?

    1. Increase the employment-based green card quota beyond the current 140,000 a year limit, counting only principals toward the quota, eliminate the per country limit for employment-based immigrants and exempt from the annual limit foreign nationals with a master’s degree or higher from a U.S. university in a STEM field.

    2. Increase the annual H-1B visa cap and expand current exemptions from the cap for highly skilled foreign nationals.

    3. Establish a visa category for immigrant entrepreneurs.

    4. Create a temporary visa category for agriculture that is far easier to use than the current H-2A category.

    5. stablish a temporary work visa category that will allow full-year (as opposed to seasonal) work in the jobs typically held by unauthorized immigrants in fields like construction and hospitality.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Jan 30 2009 Priority Date. What is the chance this Year ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hopefully, Sept 2014. If not, June 2015, assuming they follow the same strategy.

      Delete
  23. EB3 2008. Any chances of GC and how long? Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please let me know the country of charge-ability and month for priority date.

      Delete
  24. Ambal, Neenga enna periya poojariya? Makkal vandhu kekaraanga neengalum "date"'sa vaari vari vazhangureenga!

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  25. Dear Ambals,

    EB3 India October 2003 - Waiting for ages now. Wonder when shall, I expect the GC realistically. I am dejected and wondering whether it makes sense to return back to India rather then waste any more time.

    Please advice.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry to hear that. I can totally understand. Hopefully August 2014.

      Delete
  26. Hi ambals, my pd is dec 2007. I ported from eb3 to eb2 and recently got my EAD. any hope of getting GC soon???

    ReplyDelete
  27. Hi Ambals, My Pd is May 2004, chance of Current on which month? ..Is it advisable to port to EB2 at this point of time? Could you please advise basic docs required once it become current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This should give you some insight on docs -- http://ambals.blogspot.com/2013/07/getting-ready-to-file-i-485.html
      According to latest inventory, there are about 8500 folks before May 2004 in EB3 India. So, it will be like 2.5 years before you get your GC. It might speed up if more people in front of you port.
      If there is an opportunity to start your porting soon, you should do that.

      Delete
  28. when should I expect EAD for my priority date on jan 2011?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. May be later half of 2015, when the EB2 India priority date comes closer to May 2010.

      Delete
  29. EB2 India with Priority date of May 2010. Any chance of getting GC this year?

    Let me know please, thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Current trend is about 6 years from your priority date.

      Delete
  30. EB2 India Sep 2012 priority date !! When to expect GC for my PD?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Current trend is about 6 years from your priority date for EB2 India.

      Delete
  31. EB2 India - PD: Sept 11 2008. What are hopes of GC in 2014?

    ReplyDelete
  32. How are we in the eb 3 phil gonna be affected by the july fiasco? Tnx ambals

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When it comes closer to Aug 07 date, they will open it up for get more I-485 inventory. We have to wait and see how much they open it.

      Delete
  33. for EB2-I, the current calculation is 6-7 years from your priority date.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Will any of below would help EB2?
    --Legalization of undocumented immigrants without (Oops!) automatic citizenship path;
    --DREAMer legalization relief with the green card and citizenship path
    --Lower skilled workers immigration program reform
    --High skilled worker immigration program reform

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Frankly I dont expect any kind of immigration reform happening Bud. I'm in a bad situation, my visa just expired and my perm processing is pending. Hopefully it gets approved, or I wil have to wait for my wife's PD to be current. Hers is Jul 2010. I guess if there is no reform, i will seriously consider finding a job in Canada.

      Delete
  35. EB3 India October 2004 - I have been waiting for almost 10 years now and there is no end to it. How long would you think its going to take? 4-5 years? Would it make sense to leave this country after investing nearly 14 years.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I can totally understand your frustration. As per the latest I-485 inventory, there are about 13,000 applicants in front of you. With 3,000 applicants per year, we are talking close to 4 years. I am hoping it will be faster with more folks porting.
      If there is an option for you to port, you should do that.

      Delete
    2. Just following up on the same issue. For the FY13 a total of 7800 EB3 GC were issued to Indians. Assuming the trend continues would it be reasonable to expect the GC by 2016 - 2 years from now.

      Delete
  36. When can I expect an EAD for a PD of Sep 2011 for EB2 India?

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  37. EB3 with PD Jul 2004. When can I expect it to be current?

    ReplyDelete
  38. so when you say 6 years timeframe for EB2, you refer to getting GC in your hand or PD becoming current or getting EAD? I filed in July 2010 EB2, what is your prediction for getting current/ EAD. thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is for GC. It is very hard to predict becoming current as it happens many times depending on I-485 inventory.

      Delete
  39. Hey, I find this blog quite helpful! My EB-2 PD is April 2010. When do you think this date will become current again?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For EB2 India, it is about 6 years from your priority date.

      Delete
  40. EB2 with PD Oct 2009. When can i Expect it to be current ?

    ReplyDelete
  41. I find this blog quite helpful, Do you know when can I expect an EAD for a PD of Sep 2011 for EB2 India?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At this point, it is about 6 years from your priority date.

      Delete
  42. My Priority date is EB3-I MAY 2004, could you please suggest me when i can i get my green card?

    ReplyDelete
  43. Hi my pd is feb 2009 eb2i ..when can I expect my EAD... Are there any chances for eb2i to move forward this June

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is a slight chance you might get current in August 2014.

      Delete
  44. Hello Ambals,

    Pending Employment-Based I-485 Inventory for January 2014 available now.

    http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB-I-485-PendingInventory-2014-Jan.pdf

    http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB-I-485-PendingInventory-2014-Jan.xls

    Could you please post your analysis when you get a chance.

    Appreciate your support to the Immigration community.

    Best Regards,
    Raj

    ReplyDelete
  45. Hello Ambals,

    My husbands PD is May 2010,any chance if we can get GC by 2014, else I would have to ask my employer start initiating my G.C otherwise my H1B cannot be extended beyond 6 years unles I have labor approval.Kindly let me know.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please do ask your employer to start GC process.
      At this point, it looks like it might become current only in 2016.

      Delete
  46. Hi Ambals,
    My PD is EBAY 18 Feb 2009, what will be the chance for GC in CY 2014?

    ReplyDelete
  47. My PD is EB2I 18 Feb 2009. What will be my chance for GC in CY 2014? Appreciate your input...

    ReplyDelete
  48. Hi, my Pd is EB2 I Nov. 2010. When can I expect i485 to be current?

    ReplyDelete