Wednesday, February 12, 2014

March 2014 Visa Bulletin and analysis

March 2014 Visa Bulletin was released last week. The Department of State has updated their website and it looks much better. We are still getting used to it with the navigation and new updated links.

EB2:

Date for EB2 India is 15 NOV 04 and EB2 China is 15 FEB 09. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

The good news is EB2 China keeps moving forward. One more month this time.

I think EB2 India dates is going to stay the same till June 2014 Visa Bulletin. It might start moving big from July 2014.

The prediction section under the visa bulletin says that, there won't be any movement for EB2 India for now and there will be 3 to 5 weeks movement for EB2 China.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:



EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 15 SEP 03 and EB3 Philippines is 01 MAY 07 and all other countries is 01 SEP 12.

Good news here is all countries except India and Philippines are at 01 SEP 12. Also, their corresponding dates have moved 3 months from last Visa Bulletin. For Philippines it has moved 2 weeks. Finally, we have seen 15 days movement for EB3 India.

The prediction section under the visa bulletin says that, EB3 Philippines will move 3 to 6 weeks. They inform that there will be very little movement for EB3 India in the coming months. They also inform that this might the case for rest of the countries as well. 

I-485 Pending inventory:

New I-485 inventory was expected last month. There is no update yet on that. I-485 data will tell us a lot more about the number of applicants. It will also help us predict the date movements. We will keep a watch on that.

Demand Data:

Finally, the department of state has released the demand data this year. It shows that the demand is 10,550  under EB2 India category. For EB3 India, the number is 2,775. 

Links:

You can see the official March 2014 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-march-2014.html

You can see the official Demand Data here -http://www.travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

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133 comments:

  1. Please guide us how demand data (for example, EB-3 India has 2775 before Jan 1st 2004) is different from pending i-485 inventory and what is more correct measure to figure out when GC will be approved

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I-485 pending inventory gives the number of applicants. Typically, I-485 applicantion comes in demand data if it is assigned a visa number.

      Delete
  2. Thank you for the blog. Good night.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Surprising thing is some folks who filed 485 last time are getting approvals now even if their date is not current. This is happening only for TSC. NSC is just stuck

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They are? What priority date is that?

      Delete
    2. 2006,2007 PD is what i saw on Trackit.

      Delete
  4. Hello Ambals, I have a EB2I PD of June 17th,2008. Given the EB5/1 category filling up , EB3 porting, do you think my PD will get current in june/july of 2014? I will be applying for my I485- couldnt apply when it got current in 2012. Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I hope it becomes current in June 2014. If you apply I-485 within the first week, you should get it by Sept 2014.

      Delete
    2. Thank you for your reply. I hope so too. Truly appreciate the time you take to answer our questions.

      Delete
    3. Hello Ambals, How many visas are needed for the EB2I PDs to move into say July 2008? Is there any way that can be calculated or do we need to wait for the 485 inventory to come out.

      Delete
    4. As per Jan 2014 inventory, atleast 4400. Hopefully they will make July 2008 current in July 2014.

      Delete
  5. Hello Ambals, How are you saying that by June visa bulletin the EB2 India dates will move big time? Is it based on demand numbers or some other analysis? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DOS has been following different strategies over the years. Recently, they are following a strategy wherein, they keep the dates as it is for most of first, second and third quarters of their fiscal year and then, they move it big in the last quarter -- based on the spillover.

      Delete
  6. Hi Ambals,
    I have H1b valid till 2015. I applied for my 485 in november, and ead/ap are approved and in mail now.

    Some one said if I use my h1b and move,then i can move right away without affecting my green card process, is that true? or
    do i still to wait till june ( when i would be get the 180 days complete for portability) for moving to companies with similar job description?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is safer and cleaner to AC21 once all 3 conditions are met -- I-140 approved, EAD in hand, more than 180 days after I-485 notice date.

      Delete
  7. Eb3 with PD June 2004 - when can we expect GC? Any thoughts

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For EB3 India, they just started moving the dates. According to latest I-485 pending inventory data, there are about 10,000 applicants in front of you. So, we are talking about another 3 years. Assuming there is lot of porting, then it is will be earlier.

      Delete
  8. I find this blog quite helpful, Do you know when can I expect an EAD for a PD of Sep 2011 for EB2 India?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Current trend is about 6 years for EB2 India.

      Delete
    2. Ambal what about EAD

      Delete
    3. It is hard to tell about EAD. When the dates come closer to May 2010, they will open it up for increasing the I-485 application. We will get a better idea that time, on how close they come to Sept 2011.

      Delete
  9. Any idea how big the movement will be in June? My PD is Aug 2011 and I am sick of waiting. This whole process is so frustrating with the current pace it will take me 7 more years to get to 485 stage.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My friend you applied in Aug 2011 and you are already sick in 2-3 years ? really ?

      People who applied in Eb3 in 2004 are still waiting and 2007 Eb2 guys are still waiting.

      Don't be sick give it soem time you will get it and I wish all ou us get it ASAP but all we can do is wait.

      Delete
    2. current trend is about 6 years for EB2 India unless there is an immigration law change that is favorable.

      Delete
    3. trend is 6.5 to 7 years minimum for eb2. Not 6 years. I have dec 2007 pd for eb2 and dont have my gc approved yet. only ead. dont want to discourage anyone but thats the fact.

      Delete
  10. Please let me know about eb3 india. What is happen for big movements

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EB3 India will move only at the same phase. Big movement will be for EB2 India based on spillover.

      Delete
  11. Hi Ambal,

    Based on the current inventory/Demand data do you still think PD EB2 Jan 20, 2010 will get GC in 6 years, that will be Jan 2016?

    Thanks,
    Rick.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hi Ambal,
    EB3 ,PD Jan 2004. when we expect GC Pls.

    thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Assuming Jan 2014 I-485 inventory data is correct, there are about 4000 folks in front of Jan 2004, for EB3 India. With this, hopefully it will become current in Feb 2015. I am sincerely hoping it will be sooner with more porting.

      Delete
  13. Hi,

    My priority date is april 2009, EB2 India. DO you think I will get my EAD this year end ?

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hi Ambals,
    we are on Eb3, Jan 2004 PD. what are our changes on Eb3.
    Do we have to port to EB2 ?. pls let us know your thoughts.

    thanks so much

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Assuming Jan 2014 I-485 inventory data is correct, there are about 4000 folks in front of Jan 2004. With this, hopefully it will become current in Feb 2015. I am sincerely hoping it will be sooner with more porting.
      Even if you start your porting process now, it will become that long. So, it is better to wait.

      Delete
  15. Eb3 Philippines , PD Sept 2009. When can I expect my gc? Thanks..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not sure at this point. Hopefully around August, they will open up the dates to increase I-485 inventory. That should give you EAD. Then, once they release the new inventory, sometime in November, we will get a better idea.

      Delete
  16. Hi Ambals,

    My priority date is October 2009, EB2, India. When do you think I should expect to get my EAD?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At this point it looks more like, July 2015.

      Delete
  17. My PD is June 23, 2008. I have applied for I485 in 2012 itself but never made it to the GC. What are the chances of me getting current this year? Since my I485 is already pending and I have done my fingerprinting too. Do I have to do anything once the date becomes current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hopefully July 2014. Once it becomes, you shouldn't have to do anything, you should automatically get the GC.

      Delete
  18. pls. write a blog for AC21 and how to invoke it.
    also mention pros and cons when compared with h1b.

    thanks

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hi Ambals. I 1485 inventory is already out. Any thought? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In this link -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory -- I see only Oct 2013 data. can you please provide the link for new data ?

      Delete
    2. Is this what you are looking for? http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB-I-485-PendingInventory-2014-Jan.pdf

      Delete
    3. http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB-I-485-PendingInventory-2014-Jan.pdf

      Delete
    4. Jan 2014 Pending Inventory is released. Any insight?

      Delete
    5. Here you go:
      http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB-I-485-PendingInventory-2014-Jan.pdf

      Delete
    6. http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

      This has the 2014 Jan data. Can you provide your analysis based on this ?

      Delete
  20. Hi,

    I have a priority date of Jan 15, 2009 for EB2 India. Any chance of getting the GC this year.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No you will not

      Delete
    2. I believe there are really good chances that the dates will move up to Feb 2009 in the FY 2014. Ambals, you could shed more light on this.

      Delete
  21. Hi Ambals,

    My PD is Feb 2008. I have my EAD since I applied for I140 and AOS concurrently. Any chance of getting my GC this year?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is a good chance that you will get GC this year.
      I am also in similar situtation, so lets hope !!!

      Delete
  22. Hi my pd feb 2009 eb2i ...when can my dates will be current..any chances to move eb2i this summer....

    ReplyDelete
  23. what are the chances for EB2 INDIA Aug 21st, 2008 in 2014?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Ambals, Did you infer this based on the 485 inventory that just came out? I also see that EB1 category has increased by a large amount..way more than last year..so there wont be spillover from that category right? Also EB3 porting has increased. Im new to these statistics- please correct me if wrong.

      Delete
  24. Oct 2008 EB2 - Any luck in June?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Very good chance it will become current.

      Delete
  25. The much awaited inventory is out. Can you share more insights on the Eb2 India movement or even a blog for that would be great.

    http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

    ReplyDelete
  26. Hello Ambals,

    Pending Employment-Based I-485 Inventory for January 2014 available now.

    http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB-I-485-PendingInventory-2014-Jan.pdf

    http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB-I-485-PendingInventory-2014-Jan.xls

    Could you please post your analysis when you get a chance.

    Appreciate your support to the Immigration community.

    Best Regards,
    Raj

    ReplyDelete
  27. Hi Ambals,

    In the Oct 2013 I-485 Inventory, there are 885 EB3I cases for the month of Dec 2003.

    Now, in the Jan 2014 I-485 Inventory, there are 1304 EB3I cases for the month of Dec 2003.

    How is this possible? Any thoughts? Would greatly appreciate your insights.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think it is data issue, not sure which one is correct.

      Delete
  28. Now that I485 Inventory data (as on Jan 2014) is out, can you give any indication when the PD will become current for 11Dec2003 EB3I?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hopefully Sept 2014. Assuming new inventory data is correct, there are roughly 3200 folks in front of you.

      Delete
  29. Hi Ambals,
    What are the chances of EB2-India July, 2009 becoming current this year?

    Do you think it will become current next year if not this year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At this point it looks more like July 2015.

      Delete
  30. Hi ambals, based on the new inventory what are the chances of oct 07 eb3 p? Tnx in advance

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hopefully, it will become current around June. Then, depending on how many applications of I-485 they get for Aug, Sept and Oct, it might come this year.

      Delete
  31. MY PD is 22 jun 2008 India. What are the chances to get EAD this year out of 50% to 100% ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ambals- My PD is EB21 July1st 2008. Applying for I 485 for first time. Im guessing the above estimate holds good for my PD when applying for 485 and not just for EAD right?

      Delete
    2. First, the date has to become current for your PD, then you can file the I-485. If all the documents with I-485 are filed satisfactorily, then, it will get approved within 3 months. Only catch is the date has to be current till it gets approved.

      Delete
    3. Thanks Ambals..Do you know when this year my PD (july1st,2008) could get current?
      Can we predict when movement will take place from the 485 data?

      Delete
  32. May 2009 EB2 India any chance GC this year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Very less chance this year. Most likely July 2015.

      Delete
    2. July 2016 for sure.

      Delete
  33. how much % chances for EB2-I Jan 30,2009 to become current in this year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. only 50%, even though it might have applied in 2012 when dates were current?

      Delete
  34. Hi Ambal,

    What is the prediction for Feb-2011 EB2 India ??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. current trend is about 6 years from your priority date.

      Delete
  35. EB2I....PD: Feb-2007, RD: Oct-2013....what are the chances to get greened by this year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If the review is done on time, you should get in the last quarter of this fiscal year.

      Delete
  36. Hello Ambal,

    Thank you for your time. Appreciate your help.

    ReplyDelete
  37. So how many EB2 cases get approved on a average each month? I have Dec 2007 EB2 PD and see around 1500 folks before me in the demand window. Any idea how many months more to get GC approved.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. hows that possible with 1500 folks ahead of me?? how many approx approvals per month

      Delete
    2. About 240 every month. But, for EB2 India, they start applying spillover sometime in the last 4 months of the fiscal. Hoping that will start in June 2014.

      Delete
  38. Good work! with the website.

    My situation - EB3 Priority Date - May 2008 (140 approved);

    EB3 to EB2 in progress. EB2 PERM was filed in Aug 2013; Any chance I can concurrently file for 140 and 485 this summer? If so, what is your prediction for EAD and GC for me?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is taking about 8 months for PERM to get approved. Once it is approved, you can file for I-140. I suggest you do premium processing. At that time, if your PD is current, you can file I-140 and I-485 concurrently. If all the documents with I-485 are filed satisfactorily, then, it will get approved within 3 months. Only catch is the date has to be current till it gets approved.

      Delete
  39. Hi Ambals,

    I have filed for my I140 and 485 concurrently. It is regular processing. I filed for it on November 2013. How soon do you think my I140 will be processed. Does it take 4 months? or is it taking more if its not premium processing? I already have my EAD and my PD is Feb 2008.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. About 3 months. You should be good.

      Delete
  40. My priority date is Dec 2008, What are the chances of getting a GC by end of this year ?

    ReplyDelete
  41. Hi Ambals,

    Jan-2014 I-485 Inventory for EB3-India shows numbers from 2002 and before. What 'could' be the reason for these applicants to still be on the list? And if they have not got their GC yet then is it safe to assume that 'potentially' most of them will still stay on the list for quite some time?

    Thanks!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. May be it is a complicated Case with RFE, they are still working through it. We cannot really tell anything about when it might get resolved.

      Delete
  42. What are %chances to get EAD with eb2 I feb 2009 PD....

    ReplyDelete
  43. I have a previous I140 with a priority date of April 2008. My company got acquired and I had to do the whole GC process from scratch. My attorney told me that they can file PERM early April.

    Based on this, I had a couple of questions -
    1. How long does a PERM typically take?
    2. Do you think I should be able to file my concurrent I-140 and I-485 before this financial year in October? If so, how long does it take to get an EAD and GC?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1. about 8 months.
      2. If PERM comes approved by october, sure, you can file concurrently. After that you can get EAD in about 60 days. For GC, you can get in 3 months after you file I-485, if your PD is current and you have filed everything properly.

      Delete
  44. Thanks for the info.. My PD is sept 2009, can you let me know when can I get EAD.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Hi Ambals...I have a PD of July 1st,2008 EB2I. Can I assume I can get current this year? Also when can dates move? Thank you!

    ReplyDelete
  46. EB2 India :-

    Any Month 2008 = 2014
    Any Month 2009 = 2015
    Any Month 2010 = 2016
    Any Month 2011 = 2017


    Thats the prediction..........................

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And

      Any Month 2012 = 2020
      Any Month 2013 = 2022

      ( Courtesy EB3 to EB2 porting)

      Delete
  47. Hi Ambals,

    My priority date is EB2 Dec 2010, any idea when this date would be current so that I can apply for I485?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When the date comes close to May 2010, they should open up to get I-485 inventory, that time should be able to apply for I-485.

      Delete
  48. Folks have some sense and try to read the thread.

    ReplyDelete
  49. Hey Ambals - what is the likelihood that they will try to build out inventory for the remainder of 2010 and move the dates beyond May 2010 in July - September this year? Is there any historical precedent for that? My PD is May 7 2010 EB2I and I'm trying to see if there is any chance at all of filing I-485 this year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can file your I-485 now also.
      Worst case, USCIS will reject it. But that should not prevent you from filing your I-485.

      Delete
    2. Mostly it will be around June 2015.

      Delete
  50. Is there any website that lists out all the prior PDs over several years rather than having to open up every document from the visa bulletin page?

    ReplyDelete
  51. can you also please provide any status on the labor certification process? what do you think about the labors filed in month of december - what would be the situation?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Official site is here -- https://icert.doleta.gov/ -- they say it is June 2013 as of Feb 5.
      Unofficial tracking is here -- http://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigration-trackers/atlanta-perm -- it shows July 22, 2013 as of March 5, 2014.

      Delete
  52. Hi Ambals, This is what someone in a forum said about the I140 approvals
    It really depends on which officer your application was assigned to and what's his workload. October is still basically untouched for both Texas and Nebraska, so November is quite far ahead.

    My I140 was filed in November 2013. Are they still taking 4 months or are they taking longer now? I am starting to get a little worried.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not sure. If you see here -- http://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigration-trackers/i140 -- the range is pretty wide.

      Delete
  53. April visa bulletin is out (just wanted to be first :))

    ReplyDelete
  54. Lookin forward to ur analysis about the latest visa bulletin and I485 inventory report

    ReplyDelete
  55. Thanks everyone for your interest in this site.We appreciate your support.

    I think we should give some time for Ambals to give his analysis on the April VB and predictions for the next few VB.

    ReplyDelete
  56. Looks like Ambals have lost interest in analysing any EB2-I predictions.
    Its going nowhere.

    ReplyDelete
  57. Hi Ambala - any guess for EB2 india with Dec 30 - 2009 priority date. in this Year 2014 or 2015 ??/

    Regards,
    Rhl

    ReplyDelete