Wednesday, April 9, 2014

May 2014 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


May 2014 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India is 15 NOV 04 and EB2 China is 15 APR 09. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

The good news is EB2 China keeps moving forward, more than a month this time.

As expected no movement for EB2 India. I think EB2 India dates is going to stay the same till June 2014 Visa Bulletin. It might start moving big from July 2014.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:



EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 01 OCT 03 and EB3 Philippines is 01 NOV 07 and all other countries is 01 OCT 12.

Good news here is EB3 India date has moved 2 weeks and EB3 Philippines date has moved 4.5 months.

It is good to see the EB3 India date moving forward. Hopefully, it will move one week or more every visa bulletin from now on.

I-485 Pending inventory:

New I-485 inventory was released in Jan 2014. For EB2 India, there are 31,242 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. For EB3 India, it is 32,066 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. 

There should be another update on the inventory data. We will keep you posted once it comes out.

Demand Data:

There is no demand data yet corresponding to May 2014 bulletin.

Links:

You can see the official May 2014 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-may-2014.html

You can see the official Demand Data here -http://www.travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

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100 comments:

  1. Whats your prediction for July bulletin EB2-I dates? A conservative and realistic calculations would be reassuring. Thank you very much!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not sure what the DOS strategy is this time. I think they can move to 01 JAN 08.

      Delete
    2. Ambals, What is your basis of predicting Jan 08?

      Delete
    3. We can't say for certain what it will move to in the intervening months of July, august and september. But by October's bulletin, I am predicting the dates will move to atleast June 2009/July 2009

      Delete
  2. Any chance for July EB2-I 2009 priority date to get GC this year? If not GC any chance for EAD? Appreciate your response. Great Work for the immigration community.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Only if there is a law change or executive order.
      Mostly likely it will be 2015, say around June.

      Delete
    2. Hi Ambals,

      I love your work and many thanks to do this work for all of us. But I just want to know what makes you so sure that the dates will not move to June 2009. I think there are high chances for this date to come this year it self. The reason I am so positive that the dates will move very very aggressive is :
      1. China is moving along till that date.
      2. Earlier the spill overs were getting divided with China, now it wont.
      3. In past we have received 20K of spill overs, which were divided and not now (Since only India will get all the numbers).
      Now if we look at the demand data, there are only 32K till May 2010, but till June 2009 it will be around 20K.
      So I think this date will be current this year and in next year (So that DOS will know how many are there in queue), if not current, USCIS will go back to their original plan and move the dates by 2 years.

      Please correct me and let me know what am I missing here.

      Thanks!

      Delete
    3. Wishful thinking buddy!! I hope it still happens though.....mine is same PD June 09

      Delete
    4. Got a question.. Generally speaking whihc Visa category provides maximum spillover to India?

      Delete
    5. I think possibility for dates moving to june 09/july 09 is high for the same reasons the other poster pointed to. I have had similar numbers with my analysis.

      Delete
  3. EB3 Philippines PD for May 2014 is November 1, 2007 and it has moved 4 months!

    ReplyDelete
  4. http://www.americanbazaaronline.com/2014/04/08/dhs-proposes-allow-limited-number-h4-visa-holders-work-permits/
    is this true?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They have been proposing. Not sure when it will get implemented.

      Delete
  5. Dear Aditi and Ganesh,

    I got my Labor (EB2 category) approved few days back and my company is in the process of applying for I-140. My Priority Date is December 2010 (based on my previous EB3 application).

    Looks like the processing time for I-140 is around 3 months. Now, do you think that the I-485 dates can move up to Dec 2010 this year before my I-140 gets approved?

    In that case I would go ahead and apply in premium mode? Is it worth spending an additional amount of $1000? Please let me know your thoughts.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At this point, I don't think it will move to 2010 this year. Depending on how far it goes in Sept 2014, it might move to Dec 2010 next year.

      Delete
    2. Thanks for the response

      Delete
    3. Why not just apply I-140 normally. I think you can always apply I-485 before I-140 is approved. If the date becomes current, and you apply I-485, I guess you can change your I-140 to premium processing may be. I am not sure if that is allowed, but that would work perfect if possible.

      Delete
    4. Congratulations on becoming a EB2 from EB3. Because of people like you EB2 is in this s****y situation.

      Delete
    5. I know being EB2 makes you say this, but imagine what kind of experience an EB3 applicant should have if they are getting their GC approved in 2003. Definition of EB3 and EB2 dont really coincide with the timings how they get approved. Who knows if EB2 gets back logged ppl may be eligible for EB1 by the time EB2 gets approved. Just my thoughts...

      Delete
  6. Sorry to disappoint you but little to no chance of your date being current this year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for the thoughts.

      Delete
  7. whats ur opinion on 2008 Nov EB2 India.?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Depending on DOS strategy this year, I think, it can become current as early as June 2014.

      Delete
    2. I am confused :)

      AnonymousApril 9, 2014 at 11:25 AM

      Whats your prediction for July bulletin EB2-I dates? A conservative and realistic calculations would be reassuring. Thank you very much!
      Reply
      Replies

      AmbalsApril 9, 2014 at 1:13 PM

      Not sure what the DOS strategy is this time. I think they can move to 01 JAN 08.

      Delete
    3. Ambalas mean Nov 2008 should be current this year and Depending on DOS Strategy it can be any time between June and end of year quota

      Delete
    4. Hello,

      My priority date is Aug 4 2008. I guess this june - september i will receive my GC as predictions. Do you suggest if i move to full time at this juncture and invoke AC21 is a stupid mistake? I am not getting any contract positions and got the fulltime offer....not able to decide what to do? Any suggestion may help

      Delete
    5. If you already have I-140 approved and EAD in hand and I-485 pending for more than 6 months, you can use AC21 and move to same or similar job. Shouldn't be any issue. But, please do check with good immigration lawyer and explain your situation before you move.

      Delete
  8. Hello Aditi, Ganesh

    I-485 pending inventory for EB1for the year 2013 is 15,076 and 2012 is 1586. Will this impact the movement of EB2 priority date ?. Also I am wondering about the drastic increase in EB1 filing. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes this will affect EB2 a lot. It will get very less spill over.

      The reason for this huge demand in EB1 is that there are lots of Indian companies who are sending H1B's (even better L visa as well) as manager here in US and then they file their GC under EB1 application. They get GC in 1 year of time (Much faster than a guy who does the MS here, pays the taxes here for 6-7 years on H1B, waits for more than 8 years to get the GC).

      Hope USCIS make some laws to identify people who are taking advantage of this loop hole and fix this broken system.

      Delete
  9. At this speed, prospects of EB3-I moving beyond Dec' 2003 in 2014 look slim to none! :(

    ReplyDelete
  10. By this USCIS FY 2014 (ie., by Sep 2014)...how far do you think the EB3 I will move? say...
    30-Nov-2003
    or
    15-Dec-2003
    or
    31-Dec-2003

    Any predictions?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My best guess is that it will be between October 15th and Nov 8th for September 2014 Visa bulletin! Cutoff dates are always set at 1st, 8th,15th or 22nd of every month!

      Delete
    2. Considering that it is last quarter we can expect Mid November. But again anybody here is just going to speculate. Just like stock market, past performance does not guarantee future returns. :)

      Delete
  11. Hi,
    My PD is Oct 2010 on EB2. Do you think there is a possibility that it till be current next year?
    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
  12. Ambals, My PD is Dec-17-2008 in EB2 India, Do you think i can get GC or at least EAD this year based on the current information?
    Thanks for your analysis.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for your response Ambals, Can you give me some more details. If i have chances, is it for only EAD or GC as well?, In what month my PD might be current, This will help me to plan properly for collecting the necessary documents.

      Delete
    2. Whenever you apply for EAD, you should get it your EAD within about 60 days. If you are priority date is current for about 3 months, you have high chance of getting GC.

      Delete
  13. Hi Ambal,

    Around 1 1/2 years ago you replied to my question that my EB2 Jan 25, 2010 will be current in early 2015 and I can expect my GC in early 2016. Is this statement still holds true? Some of the online GC prediction links shows that my PD will become current in2016 Feb only. Could you please tell me what is your current prediction about my PD become current.

    Thanks for all your support and answering the reader's questions.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Ambal,

      Highly appreciate if you can reply to my post above. Checking if at least a ray of hope still remains.

      Thanks

      Delete
    2. Current trend is 6 years from your priority date. We can get a good picture after seeing how long it moves in Sept 2014 visa bulletin.
      EB2 India, it is dependent on 2 major variables the number of spillovers it gets and the number of applicants porting from EB3 to EB2. These keep changing every month.

      Delete
    3. Thanks So much Ambal's. Crossing my fingers now.

      Delete
  14. Hi,

    I moved from EB3 to Eb2 and my new labor application is pending since October 2013. My priority date is May 2008 based on my previous EB3 application.
    When can I expect my labor application be approved? Do you think I will be able to get EAD this year?
    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Current trend for Labor is 8 months. So, hopefully, you can get in June and apply for I-140 premium and can apply for I-485.
      While you are waiting, please do keep all the documents ready from your side.

      Delete
    2. Thank you very much for your response!!

      Delete
  15. Any chance of march 2009 EB2-I priority date to be current or get EAD this year? Thanks in advance

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is a possibility if spillover is more and/or porting from EB3 to EB2 is less.

      Delete
  16. Eb3 India June 2004 any chance this year????

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Absolutely no chance! We will be lucky if it reaches January 2004.

      Delete
    2. There are about 8200 applicants in front of 01 June 2004. They can give only about 3000 green cards for EB3 India this year. At this rate, it will take about 2.5 years more. It will move faster if there is more porting.

      Delete
  17. I am relatively new to this blog and don't understand the terms Demand data and I-485 pending inventory. Are there articles in this blog that can explain these terms? I did search in the blog but could not find. Thanks in advance and appreciate help.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Same here...any chance of Mar '09 to be current this year ?
    Appreciate your response. Thanks in advance...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is a possibility if spillover is more and/or porting from EB3 to EB2 is less.

      Delete
  19. Hi ambals, are there any chances of May 2011 to be current this year? because you have mentioned there would be a big movement after june. Does that movement jump to 2011? can you please let me know? Appreciate your help.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Before you ask, read the comments. In one of the above comments, Ambals replied that there is no hope for Dec 2010 in this year and you are asking about May 2011?

      Delete
  20. Any chance for eb3 phil with a Sept 2009 to be current this year? Thanks!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At this point, we don't have I-485 inventory data from Sept 2007. Only when we have that, we will get an idea of how far it can move.

      Delete
  21. Guys,

    As per my understanding, from your PD it takes around 6 years to get your GC, in EB-2 category. I have been on the same boat as quite of few you. During the big jump in 2012, I could not get my EAD. My PD is Nov 2010. Ambals, do I have a 1% chance of even getting EAD? Please reply, thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When the EB2 India Priority date comes closer to May 2010, they will open up the dates to get I-485 inventory.

      Delete
  22. My PD is EB2 India Nov. 2010. What are the chances for this year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is a chance if there is a law change or executive order.

      Delete
  23. Hi Ambals

    My PD is June 2010. Last year I quit my job with the employer for a better prospect. My employer assured he will not withdraw my application. My new employer will start the perm process only in Dec this year. When the PD becomes current, can I file for 485 based on previously approved 140? Please let me know if / how this will work

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry but you cannot apply for I-485. You need to apply again for PERM, once that is approved, you will have to apply for I-140. However, if the date is current for you, when the PERM is approved then you can file for new I-140 (retaining old PD) and new I-485 together (concurrently). The only thing you can use from your last application is the Priority Date (PD).

      Also your employer cannot do any harm to you. I-140 is yours to keep (that will be useful to you, to get H1B for 3 years every time and you will also have the PD).

      Hope this helps.

      Delete
    2. what happens if we don't have a copy of I 140

      Delete
  24. Any chance for EB2-I with priority date Aug-2011 getting current this year ?
    Your answer will be very helpful.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Hi Ambals
    Can you throw some light on the H1 spouses getting authorized to work?> when do you think that will come into effect/ what are the chances? what is the process for it to come into effect? thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not sure. It has been in proposal for long time now. You should check this -- http://www.murthy.com/2014/04/09/shedding-light-on-planned-proposal-for-employment-authorization-for-select-h-4s/

      Delete
  26. I-485 applied, have EAD and waiting.. What are the chances for EB2-I PD Nov 2008 becoming current this year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As early as June 2014, it can be current.

      Delete
    2. Ambals- Im a little confused. For the first post on this blog, you say that July bulletin could show "01 JAN 08" PD. But here you say that NOV 2008 PD could get current as early as June 2014. I might be missing something. By the way- by "June 2014" Do you mean June 2014 bulletin or July bulletin? Thank you!
      -valli

      Delete
    3. Ambals- Could you please help understand my previous question? Thanks

      Delete
    4. Let me write a blog on that to make it more clear.

      Delete
  27. EB3 India (PD-Nov 2003): I received a RFE for the following:
    1. Currently dated letter verifying employment & if the job offer continues to exist.
    2. Proof of continuous employment authorization in US from date I-485 was filed to present.
    3. Form I-693 Medical Examination & Vaccination Record. I filed my I-485 in July 2007, according to the notice, I-693 expires in 1 year. *They were accepting that I-693 beyond its validity. But, that policy is expiring on May 31,2014. So, now we will have to get the Medicals done unless they extend that policy.

    I have 84 Days to respond.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Just as a head-up to others here. My PD became current in this bulletin and I got an RFE to Employment Verification as well as new Medical (I-693). If your I-485 applications are more than a year old, and are filed at Texas, there is a chance that you will get an RFE too.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. what makes you think this is a general trend? may not be....

      Delete
    2. My wife and I received RFE today on our EB3-I I-485 filed in August 2007. Don't have the details of RFE yet. Looks like it will be employment verification and medicals. Our PD is Oct 2003. During these years I had a title change due to promotion and an address change for which we submitted AC21.

      Delete
    3. Please check this link -- http://www.murthy.com/2014/04/23/uscis-issuing-rfes-on-i-485s-for-updated-medical-exams

      Delete
  29. Hi ambals, my eb2 India PD is in June 2010.when can I get my GC or at least EAD?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When the dates comes closer to May 2010, they will open it up, that time you should EAD.
      For GC, current trend is about 6 years from yours priority date.

      Delete
  30. PD - June 2007 EB2-I. I-485 Applied - Sept 2013, EAD received. Can i expect my GC for SURE this year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If there is no issues on application -- like RFE -- you should get it soon after it becomes current.

      Delete
  31. Quick Question. - If PD is to be ported, can 140/485 be filed in parallel? For e.g. PD July 2009, Assuming it gets current in October, and my new labor gets approved at around same time, can they file 140/485 at same time? or they first have to file 140 and then port the date and then file 485?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is better to check with your lawyer.

      Delete
  32. Do we need to re-do the medical exam/finger printing etc if the I-485 is pending for more than 2 years, waiting for dates to become current?

    ReplyDelete
  33. Hello Guys! My PD is Feb 2010 under EB3 Philippines. Do you think it will be current late this year or early next year?:-) just hopin! Thanks a million! :-)))

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For EB3 Philippines, not sure at this point. We don't have I-485 inventory past August 2007. So, we cannot predict anything at this point.

      Delete
  34. My priority date is Sep 24, 2003 EB3 India. In May 2014 Visa Bulletin cutoff date is Oct 1, 2003 for EB3-I. Does this mean , I can expect a decision been made on my I-485 in May 2014 or will it take longer than May to get my green card. Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you have already filed your I-485 and all the application materials are good, then yes, you should get your card in May itself.
      If you don't see any update on USCIS case status by may 17, you should call them and check your status.

      Delete
  35. Folks,

    I & My spouse also got an RFE email & txt msg update for I485. FYI Our PD is 11-December-2003 EB3 I.

    I will update in this thread once I know receive actual letter.

    BTW, I am with a large IT Services & Consulting firm and our GC case related submissions are usually being handled by the Paralegal team (not a specific lawyer). So, I have few questions in this context. Can someone please clarify?

    1) Will the USCIS send the RFE to - Paralegal team or me or both?
    2) Preferably who should be responding to the RFE - Paralegal or me?
    3) My wife is a derivative applicant and has been working since the time we filed I485. So, if it is RFE requesting for EVL for me & my wife....I guess even the derivative applicant also needs to send the EVL response right?
    4) Should the RFE response for Self & wife be sent in one packet together or separate?


    ReplyDelete
  36. My PD is EB2 India 1st week of January 2009. What are the chances for this year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Exact PD date is 6th January 2009

      Delete
  37. I have read your Blog about PD movement. I got answer.

    Thank you So much

    ReplyDelete
  38. Hi Ambal,

    Firstly, thanks for helping out.

    I got I-140 approved from employer A. My priority date is August, 2011. I switched to a new employer B, they are about to file the PERM for me(done with advertising and all). Now I have a question. Employer A is offering me to come back to the same position/role. If I go back, do I have to repeat the Perm and I-140 process again? or Is it as if I have not switched the employers and can apply I-145 when it gets current.

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  39. hi Ambal, I read in lot of internet forums that many candidates whose PD is in the month of Oct, Nov and Dec 2003 are getting RFEs. Is there a possibility that EB-3 India dates may move to 2004 in July or August bulletin similar to what happened last year?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  40. Bad News for EB2 movement : By Chris Musill

    http://blogs.ilw.com/entry.php?8038-VISA%20BULLETIN%20PREDICTIONS%20FOR%20SUMMER%202014

    ReplyDelete
  41. Its very frustrating how they are giving a step motherly treatment to EB3 India, I guess its time for people who are filed in EB3 to leave US. Look like we are not required anymore!!.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Can you let me know where I stand. My priority date is Oct 2010, any guess when it can be current.

    ReplyDelete