Wednesday, April 16, 2014

What to expect - FY 2014 EB2 India Priority Date Movement and Analysis


Estimated 150,000 Green Cards are expected to be given this year under Employment Based Green Card category.

Last few years EB2 India has received good amount of spill overs. Unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case).

The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

Average of the above numbers is 17,632. Last year number is 17,193.

First question is, when will the dates start moving again ?
Typically, the movement for EB2 India is expected from June visa bulletin as it is the start of the last 4 months in the fiscal year, where spillovers can be applied. But, last year, DOS moved the dates only in August Visa Bulletin. So, depending on which strategy they use, the EB2 India dates can start moving as early as June 2014 Visa Bulletin or as late as August 2014 Visa Bulletin.

Next question will be, how much will it move ?
Again, depending on the DOS strategy, whenever they move, they can move all at once or in stages every visa bulletin -- which, I think can be between 01 JAN 08 (to move in stages) and as late as 01 OCT 09.

Next question will be, What are the scenarios for Sept 2014 visa bulletin EB2 India date ?
Best Case Scenario:
The best number in the previous few years is 23,997. Assuming that number and assuming very less porting that leaves about 23,000 visas. Then, according to numbers in Jan 2014 I-485 pending inventory, the date will move to 01 OCT 09.
Worst Case Scenario:
The least number in the previous few years is 10,106. Assuming that number and assuming there is lot of porting that leaves only 6000 visas. Then, according to numbers in Jan 2014 I-485 pending inventory, the date will move to 15 AUG 08.
Most Likely Scenario:
According to me, the most likely scenario is 01 MAR 09 -- assuming about 16,000 visas available and 2400 porting and few pending for more time due to RFE and other scenarios.

Data Sources:
I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

Annual Limits and Spill Over rule for FY 2014 --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

119 comments:

  1. Thank you so much for the analysis and information, very detailed and it also keeps the EB2 India hopes up! Fingers crossed for the best case scenario, I am hoping the porting number is as minimal as can be.

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  2. I just want to appreciate and thank you for the time and effort you put into this. Great work. I have been religiously following your blog for many years now.

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  3. Very good Analysis. Thanks for the information.

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  4. Is Porting legal......i mean..people file in EB3 cause they are not qualified for Eb2 and then how can they convert in to EB2....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Porting is legal. when you live in a foreign country you abide the laws, the laws lawmakers made.

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    2. Legal ?? Qualified ??
      Not sure exactly what this means. What is it ???

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    3. Definitions of EB2 and EB3 :

      EB2: Members of the Professions Holding Advanced Degrees or Persons of Exceptional Ability

      EB3: Skilled Workers, Professionals, and Other Workers

      After applying for EB3 and waiting for 6+ years, due to the experience (of this 6+ years), this EB3 candidate is already a "Persons of Exceptional Ability". So he is eligible for EB2 (again, with 6+ years of experience, he belongs to EB2).

      I would urge others to look at the porting cases, as the people who just re-apply with current resume (and not as the person with the intend of taking away the EB2 seats). Please think about how it feels to wait for such a long time and then to hear about the comments for porting.

      It is like saying, if you have more experience you will ask for better salary/ benefits when you apply for a new job; similarly here - people are just applying again for GC with EB2 qualifications, which they have right to do.

      I am against the people who are applying for EB1 directly within 6 months (without really having any extra qualification, except for showing them as managers in some of the consultancy company), if you look at the demand data you will realize that EB1 guys have started to use a lot of GC (which could go to EB2 with spillovers).

      P.S I have too applied for EB2 and waiting in EB2 line like others, but I do welcome EB3 guys who are waiting longer than me.

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    4. I think my issue is just with being able to carry the earlier (EB3) Priority date. Because its only after 6 years that they become eligible for EB2. If a person with 6 years experience arrives freshly to USA, they will be given this year's priority date. In any case though, I hope for everyone to be out of this waiting game soon.

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  5. You also have to remember, eligibility for EB2 is based mostly on experience & education. Person who filed for EB3 at that time would have worked on getting qualified on both those fronts just like the person who was not in US during that time and getting qualified. EB2's should not consider themselves better then EB3. Its all about situation & timing. FYI - I have filed under EB2 and not EB3!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is not entirely true. Eligibility criteria for EB2 is job requiremetns. You can have 10 years experience with PhD but if your job does not need it then you can not file under EB2.

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    2. That goes without saying..

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    3. I have no issue with EB3 converting to EB2.

      I only want their priority date to reflect when they actually become eligible for EB2.

      If working as EB3 for 6 years made them eligible for EB2, then their priority date should be 6 years later than original.

      Using priority date when they were eligible only for EB3 and asking for EB2 is complete cheating.

      Delete
    4. Your perspective is wrong. From USA's perspective, they want to give permanent residence to a well qualified person ASAP. It is for the benefit of the company the candidate works for.

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  6. Can you Help....my Date is 16 OCT 2011, leave green card,I know it's round 6 years, but when to expect EAD....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We need to wait and see how far it goes in Sept 2014 visa bulletin. That will give us a better idea.
      Basically, when the priority date for EB2 India comes closer to 01 May 2010 date, they will open it up to get I-485 inventory.

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    2. hi ,
      my PD is May 4th 2010 EB2, based on your knowledge can you estimate and tell me, when my date will be current

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  7. http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=201310&RIN=1615-AB92

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for the link. But, that seems to be Fall 2013. Is there anything latest ?

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    2. My pd eb3 india july 2006. I'm still waiting last 8 years. Please let me know. Why eb3 india pd isn't taking a big jump?

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    3. Its a simple equation - Demand > Supply.

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  8. Great inputs.You are assuming the fact that the spillover's being applied. What happens when they decide to apply the annual quota for EB2 INDIA around last quarter October which is technically 1st quarter for 2015. Will the dates move a little over March-October 1 2009?

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  9. wat if the spill over is around last yr say 17,250? will take date move to April 1 2009? I ask coz my priority date is March 25th 2009.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yes, "if" that happens, the PD can move to April 2009.
      But there's a BIG "if", and I dont think that will happen.

      Delete
  10. Aditi and Ganesh:
    You have assumed 16000 visas will land in EB2, but what is the basis of calculation. The pending inventory of EB1 is more than 5000 and they are allotted only 3000. EB1 will probably suck all the unused visas from E4 and E5 and nothing will be left for EB2. Can you please elaborate on your assumption?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Basis is last few years of data.
      Also, if you see EB1 inventory for all countries are about 18,000. But, 40,000 is available for EB1 for all countries.

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    2. The previous year also EB1 for all countries was 13000, that means about 25000-27000 visas should have fallen down to EB2, was that the case?

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    3. Sorry. Not sure where you are looking the numbers. If you look at Immigration Statistics section on DOS website, it says last year EB1 number of visas (green cards) issued was 39,058.

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    4. I looked at I-485 Pending Inventory as of Jan 2013, says 12898 for EB1. If 39058 green cards were issued under EB1 last year, only 1000 trickled down to EB2. Then, how do you assume 16000 will fall down to EB2 this year?

      Delete
  11. Do you think at anytime CO might make the dates unavailable or not move them at all?

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  12. What are your thoughts on this article?

    http://washingtonexaminer.com/article/2547280

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. lip service and idle rhetoric -that's all i can say- n talk abt legal immigration either

      Delete
  13. My PD is Jan 2008. I got my EAD recently. Worst case situation when do you feel the GC will be approved? I am awaiting a job change and dont want to hop on EAD as the new job i am pursing is in a different category. I have completed 6 months from filing date of 485 but dont want to risk anything if its just 2-3 more months of waiting.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am also in same boat. Once the date is current...can we file an SR with USICS?

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    2. No idea :( I am thinking with this stupid delays we might not get the GC within next 2 months for sure. Many folks must have ported also. I am pissed with the waiting for the last 7 years.

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    3. If you have filed your I-485 and all the documents are in order, you can get it as soon as it becomes current, right from first date.

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  14. My priority date is Jan 5th 2011. When can I expect my EAD based on the numbers you have provided.

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  15. Hi Ambal, thanks for good analysis. My date is Oct 30, 2010. I've a good offer from another company and they are ready to do my GC (EB2). What do you suggest, should I wait or switch?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please talk to a good immigration attorney, explaining your specific details and then ask the question of if you can switch.

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    2. Hello, I am also sailing in the same boat. Can you please share your email ID so that we can talk offline. Mine is markvedprakash@gmail.com

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    3. Hi,

      I am in a similar boat too. Please share your thoughts of either to start the new job.
      I ask that because we'll have to restart our PERM and I-140 process if we join the new job.
      You can contact me at salve.parag@gmail.com

      Delete
  16. Hello Team - I wanted to understand how does the China EB2 Movement is good for EB2 India Movement ?? If there is a Correlation between the two dates do you think India EB2 will match China EB2 by Sep 2014. (My PD is March 26th 2009 - do you think I will get the GC this year)

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  17. Hello - Team, I wanted to understand how does the China EB2 Movement is good for EB2 India Movement ?? Is there any Correlation between the two dates ? or just Gimmick ?

    ReplyDelete
  18. You are saying estimated 150,000 Green Cards are expected to be given this year under Employment Based Green Card category. When we sum EB1+EB2+EB3 = 17547+44747+52826=115110 pending I485 for all countries. So won't everyone get Green Cards ? Just a thought.

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  19. Hi Ambal, thanks for your analysis, it helps lot for people like me waiting for GC.

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  20. Any thought on this one below?

    04/22/2014: We Urge the USCIS to Consider Acceptance of Updated I-693 Proactively Without Waiting for RFEs

    It is not certain exactly when a new policy will be released announcing that I-693 on file with the USCIS which will be older than 12 months as of June 1, 2014 will be invalid and the I-485 applicants should submit the updated medical report of I-693. We hope it is released as soon as possible. We also urge the USCIS to accept the updated I-693 proactively without RFE to prevent the delays in final adjudication of I-485 applications when the visa number becomes current in the Visa Bulletin. This is particularly true with EB-2 and EB-3 Indians and Chinese whose EB-485 applications have been pending for a long time because of the visa number regression for those countries. Most of I-693 which are on file with the Service Centers must be pending a way over one year and they may suffer from the forthcoming policy change on the expiration of I-693 after one year. That new policy will take effect on June 1, 2014, the timing of which can affect them negatively in that there was a prediction that potentially their EB-2 visa numbers might move ahead during the 4th Quarter which starts on July 1, 2014 and ends before October 1, 2014 not to waste unused visa numbers for FY 2014. Assuming hypothetically that some of their EB visa numbers would move ahead and they would have to wait until the Service Centers issue the medical report RFEs, some of them would be concerned as to whether their long-pending EB-485 applications could be timely adjudicated during the period. Allowing submission of their updated I-693 will definitely serve the public interest in that it would save the time and tax money for the agency's RFE processing. Without doubt, it would serve tremendously the EB-485 waiters as well in that it can prevent any delays in the adjudciation of their long pending EB-485 applications when their visa number becomes current. For this reason, we urge the USCIS to take the following two actions: Firstly, release the new policy as soon as possible. Secondly and more importantly, adopt a new policy to permit submission of the updated I-693 for the I-485 waiters without waiting for the RFEs. This is important in that traditionally, the USCIS has been discouraging or even rejecting submission of any evidence without a request from the USCIS.

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  21. Nobody after 2008 Jul in EB2-I is going to get GC this year.

    So guys, go and start working.

    Too much predictions are not good for health.

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  22. My takes on the EB2 number is that, EB1-C category is making big dent to the EB2 spill over. It's gonna get worse and worse year by year. There are so many eligibles from BIG BROTHER companies waiting and ready to kill the line. So shouldn't be 16000 like last year, must be less than that.

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  23. Hi Ambal,

    Firstly, thanks for helping out.

    I got I-140 approved from employer A. My priority date is August, 2011. I switched to a new employer B, they are about to file the PERM for me(done with advertising and all). Now I have a question. Employer A is offering me to come back to the same position/role. If I go back, do I have to repeat the Perm and I-140 process again? or Is it as if I have not switched the employers and can apply I-145 when it gets current.

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please check with a good immigration attorney by giving specific details of companies and job details.

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  24. Dear Sir: Madam,
    Your statement is the movement from June visa bulletein onwards. Do you think the movement starts from July visa bulletein, since the spill over can take place in last quarter? Please correct me if I am wrong

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. According to news from various lawfirm websites, it might start moving from August visa bulletin.

      Delete
  25. Hi ,

    Thanks for the your analysis

    My PD is July 2010 , what are the chances getting an EAD this year or Next year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For EB2 India, when the dates come closer to May 2010 dates, they will open the dates to get more I-485 inventory. Hopefully that will happen next year. That time, you should get your EAD.

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  26. Thank you so much for your analysis. Wish more Indians are like you. Wish i could be like you. To serve the community without expecting returns.

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    Replies
    1. Well said! copy that

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    2. Job well done Sir ....

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    3. Well said...Great Job Sir...!!

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  27. 485 inventory data shows that there are pending eb3 applications with 2007 priority date? How do we explain this given that priority date for India eb3 is still 2003?

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  28. Ambals, thank you for this article. My PD is Nov 07. If it becomes current this June I will not be applying for I-485 (again!). I am not yet married and want to keep the option of marrying an Indian citizen open. My Q: if the dates do retrogress later in the year, to what date do you think it will go back to ? Last year it retrogressed to Nov 04, do you think it could go back to 05/06.. ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think it will go back to Nov 04 again.

      Delete
  29. Please have a look at the Chris Musillo comments on EB2 India

    http://blogs.ilw.com/entry.php?8038-VISA%20BULLETIN%20PREDICTIONS%20FOR%20SUMMER%202014

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is worse than the worst case scenarip predicted by Ambals !!

      Delete
  30. From Cilaw group website - Looks like the SO will be around 5000 or more.

    EB-2 India. This is the major headline from Mr. Oppenheim’s comments – EB-2 India is likely to move forward to January 1, 2008 during the August or (more likely) September Visa Bulletin. This movement will aim to utilize all of the available visa numbers for the fiscal year that may be unused by other categories (possibly 5,000 or more, but fewer compared to prior years).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wow this is definitely bad news. Instead of the earlier expected 16000 spillover now we can just expect about 5000. Seems like India EB2 is not going to move beyond Jan 1 2008.

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    2. Check this -- http://www.murthy.com/2014/05/01/official-predictions-on-priority-date-movement-for-fy14/ -- they say atleast Jan 1, 2008.

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  31. What are your predictions for F2B India in coming months?

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  32. I forgot to file a AR 11 form when my apt number changed. Can my EB3 petition get denied?

    ReplyDelete
  33. Just read a post in murthy - bad news - looks like the date may not move past Jan 2008.

    http://www.murthy.com/2014/05/01/official-predictions-on-priority-date-movement-for-fy14/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ambal what is your prediction after Murthy comments for dates moving to only Jan 08 for priority date of Feb 09?

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    2. I still feel it will go to 2009 PD in September.

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    3. Ambal.. The prediction from Charles Oppenheim for EB2 India is that by Sept 2014, it might move to Jan 2008. My EB2 India PD. Why do you think it may move to 2009 PD despite Charles O's prediction?

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    4. 1. If you read the Murthy.com link, it says atleast Jan 1, 2008.
      2. They have done similar predictions last year, but they moved to June 2008 in Sept 2013 bulletin.

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    5. Ambals, I see in trackitt forum titled "2014 EB2I Mass RFE" which is hot right now. Lots of people are getting medical and EVL RFEs. Perhaps in anticipation of dates becoming current in July or August visa bulletin? So far date until Sep 2008 have received RFEs according to trackitt. My PD is Nov 2008.

      Delete
  34. There is very high chance date will move to beyond Dec 08 by sep bulletin.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Noel may be right. Latest update. Lots of people with EB2I 2008 PD from TSC are getting medical and EVL RFEs. Normally this happens if USCIS anticipates forward movement in those dates. Check out the thread in trackitt for EB2I Mass RFE. They have a spreadsheet with list of people who got RFEs. So far the max date was till Sep 2008. But there is one poster who has Feb 2009 PD got RFE for medical too. Which means there is a possiblity dates may move beyond or until March 2009 in the next few bulletins.

      Delete
  35. Can we expect a PD change in coming month Bulletin?

    ReplyDelete
  36. My priority date is April 2009. What is the expected date for Green card? please advise.

    ReplyDelete
  37. I forgot to file a AR 11 form when my apt number changed. Can my EB3 petition get denied?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I doubt that! If you haven't already, file it immediately. And keep a watch on your Case Status for any activity. So, if they have sent a RFE and u have not received it in 10 days, you can call their customer service.

      Delete
  38. Mr. Oppenheim, the chief of the office responsible for issuing the monthly visa bulletin, predicted the following:
    The DOS predicts that by September 2014, the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category for India will advance to at least January 1, 2008. "

    So that means all prediction about moving in june july 2014 is not going to happen. What do you think ambals?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes. Looks like it is going to move only in August.

      Delete
  39. http://www.dhs.gov/news/2014/05/06/dhs-announces-proposals-attract-and-retain-highly-skilled-immigrants.

    Does this require congressional approval or not?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No. Check this -- http://www.murthy.com/2014/05/06/newsflash-dhs-releases-details-on-proposed-rules-for-h-4-employment-authorization/

      Delete
  40. http://www.dhs.gov/news/2014/05/06/dhs-announces-proposals-attract-and-retain-highly-skilled-immigrants

    ReplyDelete
  41. Hi,
    My PD is April 2004, EB 3. When do you think I will get my GC? Give me best and worst case.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please answer the post.

      Delete
    2. Before 01 APR 04 date, there are 5875 applicants according to latest I-485 inventory for EB3 India. About 4337 applicants between 15 OCT 03 and 01 APR 04. With these numbers, it can take anywhere from 17 months to 24 months from now. If there is more porting, it can come earlier.

      Delete
  42. Will the new rule of work authorisation for H-4, come into effect soon? Ambal, please share your thoughts on this.

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I hope it will come in effect in 1 Oct 2014. But, please do check this -- http://www.murthy.com/2014/05/06/newsflash-dhs-releases-details-on-proposed-rules-for-h-4-employment-authorization/

      Delete
  43. http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-june-2014.html

    ReplyDelete
  44. Hi,
    My PD is April 2004 EB3 India. When do you think I can realistically expect my GC? Give me your best and worst case.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please answer this post.

      Delete
    2. Before 01 APR 04 date, there are 5875 applicants according to latest I-485 inventory. About 4337 applicants between 15 OCT 03 and 01 APR 04. With these numbers, it can take anywhere from 17 months to 24 months from now. If there is more porting, it can come earlier.

      Delete
  45. My PD is April 2009 EB 2 India. When do you think I will get my GC. best or worst case. please reply

    ReplyDelete
  46. It seems lots of EB2I are getting RFE for medical and EVL. Precursor to PD movement in next bulletin? Check the discussion titled "2014 EB2I Mass RFE" in Trackitt. It looks like peope with PD until Sep 2008 got RFEs so far.

    ReplyDelete
  47. My PD is May 2008 in EB2 . Any hope to get GC for this year.

    ReplyDelete
  48. My PD is May 4 2010 in EB2. As everybody predicting dates might move till Early summer 2009 by Sep Visa Bulliten, what can be expected in Oct,Nov, Dec Visa Bulletins ,after that Any chances for my PD to be current or the date will retrogress again back if so when they will start moving beyond March 2009

    ReplyDelete
  49. hi ambals ,
    can you please check my above post and please respond
    here is my query

    My PD is May 4 2010 in EB2. As everybody predicting dates might move till Early summer 2009 by Sep Visa Bulliten, what can be expected in Oct,Nov, Dec Visa Bulletins ,after that Any chances for my PD to be current or the date will retrogress again back if so when they will start moving beyond March 2009

    thanks
    Ravi

    ReplyDelete
  50. Hi Ambals,
    can you please respond to my below request
    My PD is May 4 2010 in EB2. As everybody predicting dates might move till Early summer 2009 by Sep Visa Bulliten, what can be expected in Oct,Nov, Dec Visa Bulletins ,after that Any chances for my PD to be current or the date will retrogress again back if so when they will start moving beyond March 2009

    thanks
    ravi

    ReplyDelete
  51. Visa bulletin for July out:
    India EB2 : 01 SEP 08
    India EB3 : 01 NOV 03

    ReplyDelete
  52. Hi Ambals,

    EB2 Ind priority date has now moved to Sep '08 (July VB). Are there any chances of more movement in Aug and Sep VBs?


    ReplyDelete
  53. Hi Ambals,

    My PD is May 2008. I moved from EB3 to EB2 and filed my new perm application in September 2013. Unfortunately, I got an RFE on it ,this May. How much time would it take to get my perm approved in this situation? Is there any chance that I will get EAD this year or do you think the dates will retrogress before I get my EAD?

    Please reply,
    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you get RFE on Labor, It can take a lot of time. These days processing Normal Labor itself is taking 6 months. Incase of RFE's I have seen cases taking 2 years time but don't get disappointed , this was past figure of my friend. Hope it gets cleared soon.

      Delete
  54. I believe that dates can move till 1st Nov 2009 because of so many RFE's issued till October 2009 and PERM is taking long time, so less porters and 2009 less applications are there.

    ReplyDelete
  55. I think your predictions are better than any - way back in Apr. Great analysis. Thanks and keep coming.

    ReplyDelete
  56. Thanks for this blog, it is very accurate.
    Can you please give any idea when my date can be current? i applied in EB2(india) and my priority date (june 2012).
    I will appreciate if you suggest something as to how long i have to wait to get EAD?

    ReplyDelete
  57. Hello Ambals,

    As per your below comments,Any chances for EB2I to move till Oct15th 2009 in Sep/Oct 2014 Visa Bulletins.

    Next question will be, What are the scenarios for Sept 2014 visa bulletin EB2 India date ?
    Best Case Scenario:
    The best number in the previous few years is 23,997. Assuming that number and assuming very less porting that leaves about 23,000 visas. Then, according to numbers in Jan 2014 I-485 pending inventory, the date will move to 01 OCT 09.
    Worst Case Scenario:
    The least number in the previous few years is 10,106. Assuming that number and assuming there is lot of porting that leaves only 6000 visas. Then, according to numbers in Jan 2014 I-485 pending inventory, the date will move to 15 AUG 08.
    Most Likely Scenario:
    According to me, the most likely scenario is 01 MAR 09 -- assuming about 16,000 visas available and 2400 porting and few pending for more time due to RFE and other scenarios.

    Appreciate your inputs.

    Best Regards,
    Ambals Fan

    ReplyDelete
  58. When would date move beyond may 2010 ? and If it moves then for how many years would it move ? I dnt want to predict but want to know about chances of getting an EAD

    ReplyDelete
  59. Hi,

    EB2 date has moved to May09. Mine is July 09. I have heard that dates don't move forward after September bulletin until next year. Is that true? What are the chances?
    Best,
    Nishi

    ReplyDelete
  60. FY2016- ???
    FY 2015 - 7,235
    FY 2014 - 23,527

    ReplyDelete