Thursday, November 13, 2014

December 2014 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


December 2014 Visa Bulletin was released last week. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India stays at 15 FEB 05. EB2 China moved from  08 DEC 09 to 10 JAN 10. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

As expected EB2 India stays retrogressed. Good news is EB2 China is moving forward.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 22 NOV 03 to 01 DEC 03. EB3 Philippines moved from 01 JUN 12 to 01 NOV 12. EB3 China jumped from 01 JAN 10 to 01 JUN 10. For all other countries the date moved from 01 JUN 12 to 01 NOV 12.

Good news is all the countries have dates moved.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was released earlier this month.

Current I-485 inventory shows, For EB2 India, there are 20,263 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. This number was  31,234 in the previous edition. For EB3 India, it is 29,422 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. It was 30,018 in previous edition.

This tells me that there were atleast 11,000 EB2 India GCs given last fisal year. Interesting EB3 India inventory reduced only by 600. Also, given that there are more than 11,000 folks still waiting to get GC who has priority date of 15 FEB 05 or earlier in EB3 India category, EB2 India date might very well stay the same till June 2015 Visa bulletin. Theoretically, all these folks are eligible to "upgrade" to EB2.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:
I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India:
Now that the dates have retrogressed back, I think it will stay the same till June. I think, it will start moving big from July 2015 Visa Bulletin.

Links:

Interesting Read on Executive Action -- http://online.wsj.com/articles/white-house-considers-timing-of-executive-action-on-immigration-1415912319

You can see the official December 2014 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-december-2014.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

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98 comments:

  1. When do you expect the 5/15/10 to become current? Can we expect it in July or August bulletin? Ambal please share. Do you suggest a person to move from current company in this 9 month if the new company files the GC labor? Do you think it will get cleared?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. May be Dec 2015 it might become current. We need to wait and see how far it goes in Sept 2015.
      For your other question, please consult a good immigration lawyer and ask questions specific to your case.

      Delete
  2. Hi Ambal,

    What is your opinion about the maximum the dates can move in this fiscal year then USCIS opesn the gate?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Given current trend, I am thinking 01 Oct 09 for EB2 India. We might know better once we get the Visa Report next year.

      Delete
  3. what is your estimation for " it will start moving big from July 2015 Visa Bulletin" ?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hello Ambal,Thank you for wrting the Analysis on Dec VB.

    What is your prediction for the FY2015.

    my PD Oct 2009(EB2 India),Any chances for the dates to be current in the FY2015.

    Appreciate your time.

    Best Wishes,

    Ambal Fan

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hopefully. At this point it totally depends on number of porting.

      Delete
  5. My PD became current in Jan 2012, filed all the paper work then dates retrogressed. I am on EAD since 1 1/2 years. I don't understand how this system works or am I missing something since I still didn't get my GC. I am with the same employer as well. Not sure what I should be looking into. Any suggestions would help.

    Thx for the help!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What is your priority date?

      Delete
    2. this year it was current till May 2009 , then it retrogress to Feb 2005. So you need to wait for next year to reach Dec 2009.

      Delete
    3. Depending on porting and spillovers, it might become current in Sept 2015.

      Delete
  6. My EB2I PD 02/09/2010, when do you think my date will be current to file 485??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. May be Dec 2015 it might become current. We need to wait and see how far it goes in Sept 2015.

      Delete
  7. Hi Ambal,
    EB2 with PD of Oct 2010...when will it become current? any chance in 2015? Thank you!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. May be Dec 2015 it might become current. We need to wait and see how far it goes in Sept 2015.

      Delete
  8. Not Big compared to preious years...

    Numbers from your posts..

    EB2

    FY2014 12,000
    FY 2013 - 17,193
    FY 2012 - 19,726
    FY 2011 - 23,997
    FY 2010 - 19,961
    FY 2009 - 10,106
    FY 2008 - 14,806

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am telling atleast 12,000 from I-485 numbers. We don't know the porting numbers yet. We have to wait till the Visa Report to see how much is actually given.

      Delete
  9. EB3 (ROW - Rest of world/All other countries): What's the prediction for the next visa bulletin January 2015?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. With the current trend, it might move another 5 months.

      Delete
    2. thank you, ambals!

      Delete
  10. What does executive reform mean in terms of addressing the EB2 retrogression. My PD is Oct 2010. Will it become current if President signs the executive order next week?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not Sure at this point. All we know is here -- http://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2014/11/14/will-president-obama-help-legal-immigrants-too/

      Delete
  11. EB2 INDIA Sept 2012 priority date - when do you think it gets to current? thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Current trend is about 6 years from your Priority Date to get Green Card for EB2 India.

      Delete
  12. Hey Ambals, my PD is Dec 1 2003 EB3. Do you think I will get my GC before the end of the year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hopefully it will be become current in next visa bulletin. If so, you should get in Jan.

      Delete
  13. My priority date is Feb 2010 Eb2 India. According to your previous comments you think that eb2 India may reach Feb 2010 in December 2015. The past few years the trend was movement from July to September and stay there for 1-2 months and retrogress. Do you think it will keep moving forward after September 2015 and reach Feb 2010 in December 2015.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When the EB2 India date comes closed to May 2010, they will open it up to get more inventory. We have to wait and see what strategy they use to do it. It might be when it comes closer to Jan 2010, they might open for full 2010 or it might be they will wait till may 2010 date and open it, say one month at a time. We don't know. We have to wait and see.

      Delete
    2. Thanks for your reply. And this is a great blog.

      Delete
  14. My priority date is April 2010 EB2 India. When do you think it will become current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Current trend is about 6 years from your Priority Date to get Green Card for EB2 India.

      Delete
  15. Hello ambals,
    What are your thoughts on eb3 India getting some spillover from eb3 row by the end of fiscal year.

    ReplyDelete
  16. My PD is Mar 2011, EB2 India. May I know your predictions of when I will get EAD and GC?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Current trend is about 6 years from your Priority Date to get Green Card for EB2 India.

      Delete
  17. Hi,

    What is your prediction for Feb 2011 EB2 India ?

    Thanks,

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Current trend is about 6 years from your Priority Date to get Green Card for EB2 India.

      Delete
  18. Interesting commentarty:

    Finally, the administration is working with the State Department to "recapture" unused employment-based green cards from the past 20 years. That could clear the green-card backlogs of some legal immigrants who are living here on endlessly renewing H-1B visas waiting for a permanent visa slot to open up. Under the law, only 140,000 employment-based green cards are allowed per year, which makes for long waits for many foreign workers.


    Source: http://www.nationaljournal.com/next-america/population-2043/obama-s-proposed-executive-action-doesn-t-touch-the-roots-of-immigration-dysfunction-20141117

    ReplyDelete
  19. To appease the tech community, the president is likely to make some 250,000 additional employment-based green cards available, but once they are exhausted, the long backlogs for green-card applicants (many from India and China) legally here would remain.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If this will happen then all categories for all the countries will be current for coming 2 years.......

      Niakl padegi....

      Delete
  20. Hi Ambals
    My priority date is march 8 2008. I applied 485 on oct 22, 2014. When can I expect to get my green card. Early july or late july or august 2015

    ReplyDelete
  21. Hi Ambals,
    I applied my EB2- I-485 first time on July 1st (as receipt date) (NSC), PD is Apr-2008 and completed my biometric on Aug 19. Still waiting, no updated on my case. Could you please let me know what will be the chance of getting GC by next year timeframe.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are you waiting for EAD or GC or both? If you did get your EAD when was it?

      Delete
  22. Hi ambals,

    Filed adjustment of status august 6(tsc),under eb3 phillipines when do you think I could get my gc? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  23. Here is Obama's executive order :-

    "Current trend is about 6 years from your Priority Date to get Green Card for EB2 India"

    ReplyDelete
  24. Ambals,

    Do you know if there are executive actions of to be announced tomorrow for legal immigration ??

    If the past 20 years recapture gives an extra 250K visa numbers, do you know if the priority dates will become current for India (both Eb2 and Eb3) ??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Let us wait till thursday evening, we will know better -- http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/19/politics/obama-immigration-announcement-thursday

      Delete
  25. Our PD is July, 20.. 2008
    Filed for 485 on 7/1/2014 for our EAD end of Sep
    We just received RFE few days back asking employer tax info etc..
    What's the general timeline when they respond back to RFEs and does getting an RFE mean if everything is good you get the GC or we still have to wait until the dates move forward again?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You need to see the notice for the dates. Yes. You need to wait for the dates to move forward to get GC.

      Delete
  26. Hi Ambals
    Now that the President is going to announce the executive action on Immigration, do you think it would have anything good to do with EAD for H4 spouses? and also is there any advantage of this executive action to the non immigrants who are in the process of getting their green cards but not yet have their priority date current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2014/11/20/siskind-summary-the-immigration-accountability-executive-action-iaea/

      Delete
    2. That article is a bouncer to me..is there a way you can put that in simple words? Thanks

      Delete
  27. Hello Ambals,

    Deeply appreciate your service to all the possible immigrants....
    My PD is June 2006.
    EB2-India
    AOS(I-485) filed on 9/9/2014
    EAD/AP combo received - 11/17/2014.
    Any chance to get GC this year?
    What is best possible prediction here....
    Hope there is a good news from executive order today....

    really appreciate your time.

    Thanks

    cheers...
    Congrats

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. thanks for your time Ambals....

      Do you have any model that you follow for such predictions?

      Will there be any surprise from Obama's executive action?.....I didnt find anything alluring in his EA for EB immigrants... :-(

      Delete
  28. It looks like Obama is doing something about legal immigration. But details were scarce in his speech. Does anyone have links to any details?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2014/11/20/siskind-summary-the-immigration-accountability-executive-action-iaea/

      Delete
    2. Except from the following source:

      http://www.uscis.gov/immigrationaction#4

      "Work with the Department of State to develop a method to allocate immigrant visas to ensure that all immigrant visas authorized by Congress are issued to eligible individuals when there is sufficient demand for such visas."

      Not sure what this means at this point.

      Delete
    3. What exactly is "pre-registration" ?

      Delete
    4. From immigration-law.com, "It appears that exectuve actions will cover more reforms for employment-based immigration system than what was previously released by other media. For instance, the plans will include pre-registration for application for adjustment of status once labor certification and I-140 petition are approved such that while they wait for their priority dates current in the visa bulletin, they can work with EAD and travel, the benefits which I-485 applicants enjoy while they wait for the visa numbers available for them. Reportedly, 410,000 foreign workers get this benefits. On top of this benefits, the Executive Action plan will expand and loosen up so-called AC 21 change of employer."

      So, with an approved I 140, we should be able to get an EAD.

      Delete
  29. is there any good news in immigration plan..as i am aware my PD is Nov-2012 i need to wait for many years to get GC

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes. But, we need to wait for USCIS and DOS to come up with the final rules and timing of the rules.

      Delete
  30. Hi Ambals

    Request that you come with a more clearer version of president's executive order today for legals with pending green cards

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am still researching to get some more clarity on the USCIS points. I will write a post after that.

      Delete
  31. Hello Ambal, I read this on http://www.uscis.gov/immigrationaction :
    "portability to remove unnecessary restrictions on natural career progression and general job mobility to provide relief to workers facing lengthy adjustment delays"

    My question is: does this rule come in to effect for only those who switched their jobs after the rule come into effect or for any guys who have I-140 approval and already changed the job in the recent past?

    Just want your guess! Thanks a lot!

    -Sandeep C.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We need to wait for USCIS and DOS to come up with the final rules and timing of the rules. Only then, it will be clear.

      Delete
  32. Hello,

    New rule changes:
    pre-registration for application for adjustment of status once labor certification and I-140 petition are approved.

    I just switched my job 20 days back. I have a I-140 approval from my previous company. Will I be eligible for this pre-registration? :( :(
    Please let me know
    Regards,
    Samrat

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We need to wait for USCIS and DOS to come up with the final rules and timing of the rules. Only then, it will be clear.

      Delete
  33. Ambal,

    From USCIS website, I found the below,

    "Work with the Department of State to develop a method to allocate immigrant visas to ensure that all immigrant visas authorized by Congress are issued to eligible individuals when there is sufficient demand for such visas."

    Does the above mean the re-capture of the unused visa numbers ?

    Please clarify when you get a chance !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We don't know that yet. Lets wait for them to come up with the final rules and timeline of those rules.

      Delete
  34. Ambal, I think we all are used to read your opinion in much simpler way so everyone is expecting you to come up with your vision. Appreciate your help and time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks will do soon. I am still researching on for some more clarity on the USCIS points.

      Delete
  35. http://www.fragomen.com/SnapshotFiles/73b8b39e-232f-4f14-b1a6-1a9e975a47dc/Subscriber.snapshot?clid=477c113e-0038-4340-9119-014b889a79c5&cid=3ccf2836-2f31-40fc-af0a-01e14738c4d9&ce=iHKOWjeviRsW%2b0LtU1QIRKtLc4P4lHrV

    ReplyDelete
  36. I got a I-140 approval from my previous employer. Do you guys still think that I would be eligible to apply for EAD?

    In other words, the mentioned 400,000 people are ppl who have 140 approved from any employer or just those who have 140 approvals and working with the same company waiting to file for I-485?

    Can anyone please tell

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://www.happyschools.com/faq-high-skilled-immigration-reform-interview/

      Delete
    2. I would hope there is greater clarity on the issue. While the Prez has the legal authority, lets hope this does not get undone by Republicans, Supreme courts and gets implemented in the next few months.

      I too have an approved I-140 and moving to a new job soon...H1b has been filed. Hopefully I can benefit from this. Also does anyone know if you'd get the EAD+Parole for spouse? My husband has a approved I-140 at his current employer...

      Delete
  37. watch this video: its informative

    http://www.happyschools.com/faq-high-skilled-immigration-reform-interview/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good info on this link, thanks!

      Delete
  38. I found the information on the following link about how to read pending i485 inentory very helpful. Thought others may benefit from this as well...

    http://immigrationroad.com/green-card-tracker/how-to-read-pending-i485-inventory.php

    KP

    ReplyDelete
  39. Hi Ambals. If my i485 gets pre approved, do i still need h1b?
    Do i need h1b , to move to a new company if i485 gets approved?

    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If I-485 is approved, you got your green card. So, you won't be needing your H1b.

      Delete
  40. Why no reponses??? Be quick bro to attract ppl to hit your website !!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. wake up dude! at some point you hv to, why not now, why wait for shit to hit the fan

      Delete
  41. Somebody looking this?
    Please share your experience.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Dear Ambalas,

    My PD: 5th Jan 2009; 485 applied in August 2014; EAD received: 1st week of November;
    RFE for initial evidence Notice date:10/28/2014; Response received by USCIS:11/19/2014. what are the chances of getting green card if everything is ok with RFE and original application or do I need to wait till the dates move forward to receive GC. Please advise.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Jan 2015 VB will probably be released next week on Monday, Dec 8th. Good luck to all of us!

    ReplyDelete
  44. Nov 2013 priority date. This from Fragomen law firm...

    "There is no indication at this time that priority dates for the EB-2/India subcategory will move ahead within the next few months.

    Regarding the proposed federal immigration reform, very few of the business-based provisions will be available soon.  Inter-agency coordination and regulatory review is required in most instances, and this can be extremely lengthy."

    ReplyDelete
  45. Take it easy man. Ambals CAN'T COOK information for you.

    ReplyDelete
  46. My I140 and 485 still pending. But got my EAD. priority date Aug 2008.
    Dude unable to use EAD coz of the I140 pending for more than 5 months.
    Crazy situation.

    ReplyDelete
  47. I bet he will come back with info before Xmas and we all will have a good Christmas!!

    ReplyDelete
  48. My PD July 2006 EB3 India.When I have a chance to get Green Card.My I-140 is approved. Plesase let me know

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, in the current VB which is December 2014, the cut-off date for India EB-3 is 01DEC03 and your PD is July 2006. So, there are 3 years gap and as per the latest prediction, the date will move by a few weeks only for India EB-3. Looks like there's quite a long wait. Try to upgrade to EB-2 if possible so you get the GC sooner.

      Delete
  49. hope Jan 2015 VB gets released today Mon Dec 8!!!

    ReplyDelete
  50. Yes January 2015 Visa Bulletin Released today.

    http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-january-2015.html

    ReplyDelete