Tuesday, December 9, 2014

January 2015 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


January 2015 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India stays at 15 FEB 05. EB2 China moved from 10 JAN 10 to 01 FEB 10. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

As expected EB2 India stays retrogressed. Good news is EB2 China is moving forward.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 01 DEC 03 to 15 DEC 03. EB3 China jumped from 01 JUN 10 to 01 MAR 11. For all other countries the date moved from 01 JUN 12 to 01 NOV 12 to 01 JUN 13.

Good news is the dates for all the countries have moved.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was released last month.

Current I-485 inventory shows, For EB2 India, there are 20,263 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. This number was  31,234 in the previous edition. For EB3 India, it is 29,422 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. It was 30,018 in previous edition.

This tells me that there were atleast 11,000 EB2 India GCs given last fisal year. Interesting EB3 India inventory reduced only by 600. Also, given that there are more than 11,000 folks still waiting to get GC who has priority date of 15 FEB 05 or earlier in EB3 India category, EB2 India date might very well stay the same till June 2015 Visa bulletin. Theoretically, all these folks are eligible to "upgrade" to EB2.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:
I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India:
Now that the dates have retrogressed back, I think it will stay the same till June. I think, it will start moving big from July 2015 Visa Bulletin.

Links:

Read on Executive Action related to employment based - http://www.uscis.gov/immigrationaction#4

You can see the official January 2015 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-january-2015.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

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87 comments:

  1. Hi Ambals, I am in EB2 India with PD Dec 2008, I applied for i-485 on Aug 1st 2014 and got the EAD. Based on the pending inventory, do i have chances to get GC next year?? if the dates move from July 2015 VB, can i expect GC some time around Sep 2015?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yes, you will get GC in 2015. Depending on processing backlogs, you may get your GC in 3-6 months.

      Delete
    2. If there are no more queries, then yes.

      Delete
  2. i am awaiting for EAD since i am on H4 cant work. whats your thought on when the rule will be passed and your comments on below news
    http://resultsocean.com/2014/12/05/breaking-news-h4-ead-rule-approved-final-effective-date-march-2015/

    ReplyDelete
  3. There is a waitlist data as per Nov'14 in the link http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingListItem.pdf

    ramesh

    ReplyDelete
  4. One of my friend(EB2I PD Mar 15th 2008) who ported from EB3-EB2 in Aug 2013 filed I-485 in Sep 2013 did not get the approval when the dates were current between Sep- Nov 2013 and July - Oct 2014.

    He opened SR and contacted the local Congressman but they sent RFE for the medicals in September by that time date the visa numbers are unavailable.

    Lot of factors will come for the GC approval,Which Service Center,Priority Date,Receipt Date and USCIS Theory.

    Sorry for not giving the perfect answer.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Ambal, Do you think that dates will move forward around Nov 2015 to build the inventory ? if yes then how much period do you think it will cover ? I did some analysis and it seems , It can move up to 2-3 years , Am I correct on that analysis ? Appreciate your response on the same.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Completely depends on DOS strategy and how much they want to build the inventory.

      Delete
  6. Hi, I have a question. I am currently on H1-B Visa and approved I-140 in EB2 Category. If I plan to go on H4 visa due to year long maternity leave and with rule implementing that people on H4 visa can work with EAD for any employer, will I be able to use my I-140 on H4 visa after this rule is in action? Or my I-140 will be void after coming to H4 Visa?

    ReplyDelete
  7. No. You have to keep working or you will loose your I-140

    ReplyDelete
  8. yayyy my PD is current... pheww...what a relief...welll if everything goes smoothly with the next step now

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You hope 'not'??? lol...jealous or what?

      Delete
  9. Ambal,

    When the dates will move forward beyond may 2010 to build the inventory ? Would it be in 2015 or in 2016 ? whats your thought from pending inventory data ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. May be around Nov/Dec 2015. But, we have to wait and watch how far it reaches in Sep 2015 bulletin.

      Delete
  10. For EB3 PD of May 2004, chance of becoming current please?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There are about 3300 folks in front of you in 2004 itself. Depending on the number of porting, there is a chance you might by end of 2015.

      Delete
    2. Wish You and Your Family Very Happy New Year 2015...Thanks for the reply.
      What would be the next steps once my PD become current? I am in India and it believe it is Consular Processing.How long it will take to get authorization to work and take my family there after my pd become current. Please advise. Eagerly waiting for your reply

      Delete
  11. Hello there Ambal,
    I have an EB3 Philippines petition with a priority date of Jan2014, is there a chance that i will be current this fiscal year? what's your take on my case? if ever that i'll be current anytime soon and i finish all the papers and unluckily retrogress. what will i do aside from waiting for my PD date to be current again? thank you very much for your help. god bless you. -nath

    ReplyDelete
  12. is there a big chance for eb3 worldwide to be on a current status soon?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You have got to be kidding me!!!

      Delete
    2. very soon in 2015

      Delete
  13. INDIA EB3 INCREASE IN NUMBER OF PENDING CASES: Does anyone know why the no of pending cases INCREASED in the months Mar and Apr 2003. For example in the July Pending Inventory Report Mar and Apr'03 had 19 and 16 cases pending. But in the latest October Pending Inventory Report the Mar and Apr'03 pending cases actually went upto 497 and 304 respectively. Wondering how is this possible?

    ReplyDelete
  14. Please read this,

    http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c113:H.R.2131:

    ReplyDelete
  15. Hello Ambals,

    FY 2014 - EB visa stats released.

    India EB consumption

    EB1 - 12,978
    EB2 - 23,527
    EB3 - 3,465

    Source:
    http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2014AnnualReport/FY14AnnualReport-TableV-PartII.pdf

    Any comments on the EB2 India PD movement in FY2015.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. interesting! It is not consistent with Pending Inventory published in October 2014 Month.

      Delete
    2. No October pending inventory just shows the reductions in August/September, so we may see more reductions in Jan 2015 pending inventory.

      Delete
    3. Yes.
      See this link:
      http://www.murthy.com/2014/12/24/analysis-predictions-and-trends-jan-2015-visa-bulletin-update/

      Delete
  16. https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/when-would-legal-immigrants-stop-suffering/p7yG9zCJ

    ReplyDelete
  17. Hi Ambal,

    My PD is Sept10th 2009 under EB2-India. Do you see any possibilities in my PD would be current in 2015, please share your thoughts.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Absolutely yes. go party dude!

      Delete
    2. Thanks Dude...it makes me feel better :)

      Delete
  18. When will I get my green card

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. if EB3-I then after 12 years.
      If EB2-I then after 7 years

      Delete
  19. My pd 2004 feb, eb3, any chance of being current??

    ReplyDelete
  20. Hello Ambals .... Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you and your family ....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you so much dear!

      Delete
    2. Thank you. Wishing you and your family the same.

      Delete
  21. In I-485 step - medical exam is no fun. be ready to be poked a few times :(

    ReplyDelete
  22. Hi Ambals,

    My PD is Feb 9th 2010 under EB2-India, ported from EB3 to EB2, Do you see any possibilities in my PD would be current in 2015.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Never! It is because of people like you that there is such a huge backlog in EB2. Why don't u guys stay where u belong?

      Delete
    2. Current trend is about 6 years from priority date.

      Delete
    3. Thanks ambals for the reply. Whoever replied in Anonymous name, don't hurt others without knowing nothing, I didn't come to USA recently, I have been in USA since 2004, my company applied in EB3 only in first time and I started my GC almost end of my 6th of H1B, so don't think that we are ineligible for EB2 for the first time itself.

      Delete
    4. Take it easy guys. If the Anonymous@Dec30 1.33pm gets an opportunity, he will also port from EB2 to EB1.

      Delete
  23. Ambals, Any comments by you from below article?

    https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2014/12/30/2014-30641/immigration-policy

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They are looking for comments from public. Based on that, they will come up with new rules. Lets wait and watch.

      Delete
  24. Wish you a happy new year ambals

    ReplyDelete
  25. Submitted 485 in July 2014 ( first timer ) priority date july 2008 EB2 , Case status still showing as "fingerprint received " although got my EAD end of sept. Anyone else in the same situation of case status not being updated ? Thoughts on when dates would move forward and when to anticipate gc ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When you submitted your I-485 application, how long does it take to get the (1) receipt confirmation and (2) to get the appointment for fingerprinting?
      Sorry, I do not have the answers to your questions but asking you other related questions instead. My PD just became current. Thank you!

      Delete
    2. Thank you for your reply.
      In regards to the questions:
      Got my receipt notice a week later after submitting and the fingerprint appointment about 3 weeks later.

      Delete
    3. Thank you, Anonymous for the prompt reply. I'll be sending mine soon.

      Regarding previous addresses, visas, i-94, etc. that are required on the i-485 forms...i wonder if they really go through all that and how accurate they need to be. I wonder who's going to remember all those specifics??? It worries me :(

      Ambals - Any input/advice plz...

      Delete
  26. Hi Ambals,
    I'm based out of New york and want to move to san francisco within my current company. I have my I 485 already filed.
    Will I have to go through the entire GC filing process again?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I-140 Approved, EAD in hand and I-485 pending for more than 6 months. If all these conditions are met, you can move to same or similar job and file AC 21. Then, you don't have to go through the process again. You can retain your Priority Date.

      Delete
  27. Hi Ambals,
    My prioritydate is June 2010, any idea if my date would become current this year? I went throught some posts in your blog but couldnt get a idea about the date movement.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Happy New year all and Ambals. I have priority date of 17 June 2010 eb2. I am also wondering. Would be great if we get some idea about date movement after May 2010 for eb2. looks like this year at least

      Delete
    2. We have to wait and see where it goes in Sept 2015 Visa Bulletin. If it comes closer to May 2010, they will open it up to get more inventory.

      Delete
  28. Hi Ambals

    I am on EB2India with priority date September 2013.. Can you possibly project by when will I be lucky enough to get my green card in the current situation??
    Thanks in advance

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dude, I am in the same boat as you... by the current trend, we will get our priority date as current in 2019 and GC in 2020.

      Delete
    2. Current Trend is about 6 years from your priority date.

      Delete
  29. Mine is eb2i April 2009 as priority. Filed in October 2014 and received EAD.


    When do u think I will get my GC?
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How long did you have to get to get the fingerprint appoitnment after submitting I-485 application?

      Delete
    2. They say it takes 4 months on average to get the GC. Since you filed in Oct 2014, it hasn't been 4 months yet. I hope you get it soon. Keep us posted!

      Delete
    3. Ambols why August 2015? why not Feb or March 2015?

      Delete
  30. EB2 india February 2015 VB - No movement... :-(

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. patience, my friend!

      Delete
    2. The Feb 2015 VB has'nt been released yet.

      Delete
    3. See this - http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2015/01/february-2015-visa-bulletin.html?utm_source=fb_twtrfeed

      Delete
    4. That's just a prediction, you should check the official visa bulletin here.

      http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin.html

      Delete
    5. It should be like last year.... until June there was no movement, but after that, a very big leap.... hopefully the same pattern continues. If we are lucky, it might move by May.

      Delete
  31. Thanks for the service this blog does to the immigrant community. I've been following for a long time now but this is my first post. My case is EB2 India with priority date of Aug 2010 with approved I140. I am looking to switch employers and was very hopeful to hear Obama speak to improvement in this aspect of green cards during his executive action speech 2 months ago. Unfortunately, there seems to be little to no movement on specifics and how this will impact people like me all this while. Any advice from Ambals or others on moving employers in the current scenario?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My suggestion will be to wait for the rule to be published on EAD for approved I-140. Then, you can decide.

      Delete
    2. Ambals, when do you forsee the rule will be published? Any idea? Appreciate your response.

      Delete
    3. I was thinking 6 months. Given that there are lot of government agencies involved, we really can't say for sure.

      Delete
    4. Do you mean 6 months from announcement of November 20?

      Delete
  32. I am Eb2 with priority date 2010 March. Could you please let me know when would be the d-day to get my green card.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Hi Ambals,

    PD: 30-AUG-2006
    I-140 EB2 APPROVED with date captured after switching from EB3 to EB2 in July 2014.

    Any forecast from your perspective in 2015?

    Thanks Ambals for your time.

    ReplyDelete
  34. My priority date is March 24th 2008. I-485 filed in July 2014. When can I expect my Green Card? 2015 or 2016?

    ReplyDelete
  35. Ambals, as per below information, do you think registering for this even should be helpful?

    Employers, DOL/ETA is Scheduling Listening Session by Conference Call on PERM Program on January 22 from 4:30 to 5:30 p.m. EST

    This session intends to seek feedback on the PERM program's role in employment-based immigration, its current regulatory framework and any general concerns of the stakeholder community to develop DOL part of Obama's Immigration Actions, which has been outlined by the DOL in the form of Fact Sheet. The session will be led by Assistant Secretary of Labor for ETA, Mr. Portia Wu and Deputy Chief of Staff, Ms. Seema Nanda. As a listening session, these leaders of the DOL will listen to opinions and suggestions on the current PERM program as a feedback which will be considered in developing the immigration action program by the leaders. To participate, please RSVP no later than January. 19. To register, please click here.
    Employers and labor certification practitioners, it is very important to participate in this session and address your opinions and suggestions to improve the current PERM program as part of the ongoing Obama immigration action initiatives in the areas of employment-based immigration modernization.

    To register -

    http://webapps.dol.gov/DOLEvents/Event/View/347/PERM-Public-Listening-Session

    ReplyDelete
  36. EB2 - 1 SEPT 2005

    ReplyDelete
  37. Hi Ambal, My PD is Mar 2006. When do you expect my dates to be current - EB2 India.
    Thanks much.

    ReplyDelete
  38. My pd is june 2009 eb2. Did medical as they asked me last year in Aug which was my second time after ead. Can they ask again this year for medical if my pd is current in Sept 2015?

    ReplyDelete