Friday, January 9, 2015

February 2015 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


February 2015 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India moved from 15 FEB 05 to 01 SEP 05. EB2 China moved from 01 FEB 10 to 15 MAR 10. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is that EB2 India have started moving earlier than expected. Another, good news is EB2 China is moving forward.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 15 DEC 03 to 22 DEC 03. EB3 China jumped from 01 MAR 11 to 01 SEP 11. For all other countries the date moved from 01 JUN 13 to 01 JAN 14.

Good news is the dates for all the countries have moved.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was released in october.

Current I-485 inventory shows, For EB2 India, there are 20,263 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. This number was  31,234 in the previous edition. For EB3 India, it is 29,422 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. It was 30,018 in previous edition.

We are expecting another inventory to be released this month. Will keep you posted on that.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:
I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India:
I expected the dates to stay the same till June. But, DOS is using a different strategy this time. They have moved the little this Bulletin. I am hoping they keep the forward movement trend. They say in this Bulletin that they are expecting it to move forward four to six months.

Links:

Read on Executive Action related to employment based - http://www.uscis.gov/immigrationaction#4

You can see the official February 2015 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-february-2015.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

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132 comments:

  1. Hi Ambals,
    My priority date is September 22, 2009 EB2 India. Any chance that this date will be current this year?

    ReplyDelete
  2. My case is a bit complicated.
    I was in US pd aug 2011. I moved back to india last year. Employer has not revoked 140. If I have to go back what are my options?
    1. Go back to same employer - employer has to file new non exempt h1? my previous 797 is valid till sept but h1 was revoked when i quit.
    2. Go back to diff employer- employer has to file new non exempt h1? start gc process again but retain PD? Will i need to all the documents like experience letters etc again?

    Any information will be appreciated. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is complicated. It is best to consult a good immigration lawyer and explain your situation.

      Delete
  3. Ambals

    1 Jun 2009 , hopefully June 2015? EB2 India

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Ambals,
    My priority date is October 23, 2009 EB2 India. Any chance that this date will be current this year?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi Ambals,

    My priority date for EB2 India is March 6, 2011. May I please know when I can expect this date to be current approximately?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You will get it this year Priyanka. Enjoy!

      Delete
    2. Current trend for GC is about 6 years from your priority date. For EAD, there is a possibility end of this year. We can tell more after we see how far they go in Sept 2015 Visa Bulletin.

      Delete
  6. How far do you think they will move the dates forward to build an inventory of ead's. Priority date is early 2011 and hoping to get my ead this year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I hope they move till end of 2011, this year end may be.

      Delete
    2. If the rule will published on EAD for approved I-140. Then do you think it may be earlier than end of this year for early 2011 PD?

      Delete
    3. If the rule will published on EAD for approved I-140, then do you think PD of early 2011 may get EAD sooner than end of 2015?

      Delete
    4. I disagree to Ambals here the inventory will be karke to Handle so they may not

      Delete
    5. Hi Ambals, I am interested learning how EAD's are issued Vs GC's. Will I get an EAD first and then the GC?
      I have a PD of July 11 and am interested in knowing if I can get my EAD this year.

      Please let me know and thanks for all your help

      Delete
  7. Hi Ambals,

    MY PD is June 2009 EB2I
    Do you think it is possible that due to this slow and continuous movement in EB2 India category, the EB3 to EB2 porters will have a longer period to apply and there may not be many GCs left for EB2 category? That would be certiainly bad news for us.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agree. I also think slow and gradual date movements will benefit the porters more. We will wait have to wait and see if this policy affects the the extent to which the PD can progress for this year.

      I have PD of SEP 2009, so am anxious just like you.

      Delete
    2. My PD is June 2009 too in EB2I. It really depends on how many applications they get this time. If less...the dates will move faster...if more...bad luck AGIAN!!

      Delete
  8. Hi Ambals,

    Any comments on the immigration action? Will really help if you could shed some light

    ReplyDelete
  9. My priority date is June 2010 EB2 category .. What do you think are the chances of it getting current this yr so I can apply for 485 ? .. I am keen on getting my EAD this year hopefully ..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For EAD, there is a possibility end of this year

      Delete
    2. For EAD, there is a possibility end of this year

      Delete
  10. Hi Ambal - now that they are predicting to move EB2I by 4-6 months...do you still feel June 2009 would be current in August? Feels like they may be taking a different strategy and avoid retrogression?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes it will move big April ur date will be current.

      Delete
  11. Dear Ambals,
    My priority date is Feb 2011, EB2I. I saw your reply to one of the questions above that there are chances of getting EAD this year. Do you mind telling why do you think they may move dates so far to build the inventory?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They will not ur pd will be current Feb 2017

      Delete
  12. Latest Immigration News seems to be accurate. The said in their last news that eb2i may start moving earlier this year than last year. But at the same time Ambals comments are motivating.
    So both tools in the inventory are adding flavor.

    ReplyDelete
  13. I have 2004 July EB3 Priority date. When do you think it be current at this rate? Should I port it to EB2. I is worth porting to EB2 at this time? Please help!

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hi,
    EB2 India; PD: 01/05/2009; 485 filed: 02/08/2014; Receipt Notice: 08/15/2014; RFE for Initial Evidence received: 10/24/2014; RFE response USCIS received: 11/18/2014 and under review. Received EAD and AP
    - When can I expect GC
    - Can principle applicant do second job
    - When can principle applicant change job
    Appreciate your response.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. June 2015
      I would suggest no for second job as they may ask for employer letters
      after 180 days you can change

      Delete
  15. PD June end, 2010, EB2. Do u think it will become current end of this year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. little chance of June 2010 becoming current. Most likely next financial year.

      Delete
    2. Ambals, please share ur thoughts as well

      Delete
  16. Hi Ambals, My PD(EB3 12/1/2003) went current DEC 1 2014. I still havent heard anything. Should I continue to wait?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 12/1/2003 EB3 India became current this year. You should see the change status online anytime this week or next.
      You can also try contacting your state's senator's office and see if they can check your application status.

      Delete
  17. Hi Ambals,
    My PD date is Dec 29, 2009 EB2 India any chances this year.
    I see DOS ha changed the date movement strategy so I worry my date may not be current this year. Please post your thoughts.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Current trend for GC is about 6 years from your priority date. For EAD, there is a possibility end of this year. We can tell more after we see how far they go in Sept 2015 Visa Bulletin.

      Delete
  18. EB2 India PD Sep 2010- Any chances to be current this year? Any educated estimate when it could be current?
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Current trend for GC is about 6 years from your priority date. For EAD, there is a possibility end of this year. We can tell more after we see how far they go in Sept 2015 Visa Bulletin.

      Delete
  19. Ambals,

    PD Sep 2008 EB2 India. received EAD in Nov 2014. When do you think we will be able to get the GC??

    Thanks.....

    ReplyDelete
  20. My PD is July 2011 EB2. Do you thin I can receive my EAD this year 2015.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Current trend for GC is about 6 years from your priority date. For EAD, there is a possibility end of this year. We can tell more after we see how far they go in Sept 2015 Visa Bulletin.

      Delete
    2. I am interested learning how EAD's are issued Vs GC's. Will I get an EAD first and then the GC?
      I have a PD of July 11 and am interested in knowing if I can get my EAD this year.

      Please let me know and thanks for all your help

      Delete
    3. no first GC will come then EAD will. s-t-u-p-i-d.

      Delete
    4. Guess, you dont have to be rude. If you want to help or if you can, please help. Else you have the right/choice to remain calm.

      Delete
  21. AnonymousJanuary 11, 2015 at 12:55 PM

    I have dec 22 2004 EB3 Priority date. When do you think it be current ? Should I port it to EB2. Is worth porting to EB2 at this time? Please suggest

    Thank you



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yes port it to eb3 or wait another 2 and a half year.

      Delete
  22. Current trend for GC is about 6 years from your priority date. For EAD, there is a possibility end of this year. We can tell more after we see how far they go in Sept 2015 Visa Bulletin.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Dear Sir!
    I am with P.D Oct.2006 under EB3, any possibility of current
    by this year? Please reply.
    regards.
    Franklin





    f

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. no way. 2019 it will be current.

      Delete
  24. my pd.Oct.2006 under EB3 India, any possibility of current this
    year? please reply
    regards
    Prameela

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. go for porting. it may take you another 4 years otherwise.

      Delete
  25. PD EB3 Dec 2004. Do I expect this year current ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. nope 1 and half year.

      Delete
  26. My priority date is Feb 2010 and already have EAD. However I am planning to visit India. But I dont want to miss / be late for replying for queries. Any idea on which bulletin we have a chance to move to Feb 2010???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. next bulliten

      Delete
    2. that is unknown. you may or may not get a query. go to india and bring some sweets also.

      Delete
  27. 1 Thing i dont understand is that if total I-485 inventory is around 114,000 and there are 140,000 GC given in a year in Employment category then how come there is a backlog?
    Some people might think "oh another idiot" after reading this question ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  28. AILA has reported after talk with Mr. Oppenheim of the State Department that unlike previous years, EB-2 India visa numbers may move up from four to six months or even faster, but may not go beyond summer of 2009. Apparently, this is determined by the two factors. One is active implementation of Obama's immigration actions beginning May 2015 affected visa demand changes and the other is inscreasing rate of convering from EB-3 to EB-2 by Indians. Frustrating news in a way for the late starter Indian EB-2 professionals.

    Obviously, passage of H.R. 213 of 2015 sponsored by Rep. Jason Chavetz removing per country limit for employment-based immigration will change this prediction, but fate of this bill is questionable at the best.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wooow ... So 6 years wait time for EB2I will now start to increase ... hmm . Honestly, there is no end to this tunnel .....

      Delete
    2. correct beyond 2009 sept it is a little difficult.

      Delete
    3. It is not what Charles says. It is how the numbers are consumed that counts. Think of this we are retracing the path of previous year. The question is we will go further than previous or not. We will definitely go. Here are the reasons.

      1. A lot of people in EB2 in 2008/2009 have already got green cards. I personally know 2.

      2. The number of labors filed in 2008 -2010 was less due to recession.

      3. Compared to previous year this time we are already ahead. Last year it was stagnant at 2004. We have already reached end of 2005 indicating eb3 to eb2 conversions are not happening as frequently as last year.

      I will take a bet it will go till end of 2011 this team.

      Delete
    4. I485 pending inventory says there are atleast 20000 people until Apr' 2010 waiting for hands on their GC. I think last year arnd 15000 EB2I got their GCs ... At this rate I think we may go max until Jan 2010.

      Delete
    5. Let me come back to inventory in a minute. The *key* thing the last year's path is being retraced. The key *question* is how much farther than last year we will go this time. To answer this question, we should not look at this year numbers in isolation but compare this year's numbers with last year numbers. In every sense this year numbers are better than last year. Last year the eb2 I inventory number on OCt 31 2013 was 32K. The eb2 I inventory number on Oct 2014 is 20k. In relative terms this year looks much better than last year. This year we will go far.

      Let us talk in absolute numbers. There is 20K inventory as of now. There are two types of inventory here. Old inventory: that couldn't capitalize last year, New Inventory: The one that got added recently due to eb3 to eb2 conversions. The old inventory is existing there because there are technical issues there (my friend Apr/2009 got GC last year) such as having broken rules, not replied RFEs, got laid off, left country after I485 etc. A signifcant fraction of the old inventory won't materialize this time also. What I am saying is being proved because dates are moving faster now than last year.

      Don't look absolutely. Compare last year states with this year state and the question we will go farther than last year.

      2011 is my bet. I would not be suprised if we hit 2012.

      Delete
    6. Hope u r correct my friend!! I missed mine by one month last year. My PD is June 2009

      Delete
    7. Nice to see people talking about bet here. So funny!! our life has become like gambling each day with political fights...

      Delete
  29. Hello Experts!!....PD 12/23/2009.. any chance of it becoming current this fiscal year (2015)?

    ReplyDelete
  30. My priority date is Feb 2010 and already have EAD when my date will be current.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Ambals, your take on the latest AILA update? My pd is july 13th 09 Eb2 I, I'm hoping I'll be current.

    Mr Charles says movement up to summer 09, does that mean dates might move to Sep or Oct 09??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. it will be 2029............so, go sleep.

      Delete
  32. "Immigration Innovation ("I-Squared") Act of 2015, Bi-Partisan Bill Sponsored by Sen. Orrin Hatch

    Employment-Based Nonimmigrant H-1B Visas
    Increase the H-1B cap from 65,000 to 115,000
    Allow the cap to go up (but not above 195,000) within any fiscal year where early filings exceed cap and require the cap to go down in a following fiscal year (but not below 115,000) if usage at the end of any fiscal year is below that particular year’s cap
    Uncap the existing U.S. advanced degree exemption (currently limited to 20,000 per year)
    Authorize employment for dependent spouses of H-1B visa holders
    Increase worker mobility by establishing a grace period during which foreign workers can change jobs and not be out of status and restoring visa revalidation for E, H, L, O and P nonimmigrant visa categories
    Student Visas: Allow dual intent for foreign students at U.S. colleges and universities to provide the certainty they need to ensure their future in the United States
    Green Cards:
    Enable the recapture of green card numbers that were approved by Congress in previous years but were not used, and continue this policy going forward through the roll-over of unused green cards in future fiscal years to the following fiscal year
    Exempt certain categories of persons from the employment-based green card cap:
    Dependents of employment-based immigrant visa recipients
    U.S. STEM advance degree holders
    Persons with extraordinary ability
    Outstanding professors and researchers
    Eliminate annual per-country limits for employment based visa petitioners
    Adjust per-country caps for family-based immigrant visas
    U.S. STEM Education & Worker Retraining Initiative: Reform fees on H-1B visas and employment-based green cards; use money from these fees to fund a grant program to promote STEM education and worker retraining to be administered by the states" ....



    For sure these guys know how to keep us waiting and watching ... Another bi-partisan bill while the previous ones have never made it to the Presidents desk ..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Every year they introduce bills but no actions...!!

      Delete
  33. My Priority is Nov 2009 , what are chances of being current this year??

    ReplyDelete
  34. My priority date ts december 28 2009 .. Any changes of getting EAD in 2015 ?

    ReplyDelete
  35. My PD is Nov 2012 . Is there any possibility in this year to be current

    ReplyDelete
  36. My priority date is blah blah blah EB2I .......................................................what is your prediction of it becoming current ????blah blah blah..........................



    Its 7 years + your priority date


    Did you hear me ????????????????????????

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Unless you have uploaded your voice, how can someone hear it you moron.

      Delete
  37. My priority date is March 24th 2008. I-485 filed in July 2014. When can I expect my Green Card? 2015 or 2016?

    ReplyDelete
  38. My priority date is March 24th 2008. I-485 filed in July 2014. When can I expect my Green Card? 2015 or 2016?

    ReplyDelete
  39. Why there is no provision for India eb3, in president's executive action? Is there any hope?
    regards
    Franklin

    ReplyDelete
  40. how many pending applications from EB2 India category before PD July-2009?

    ReplyDelete
  41. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Eb2 india. Pd aug 2011. Any chance to get EAD this year 2015??

    Thanks,

    ReplyDelete
  43. Any Predictions to get EAD by end of this year for early August 2011 PD??

    Please let us know...

    ReplyDelete
  44. Hi All,

    I have come across this blog http://www.murthy.com/2015/01/19/analysis-predictions-and-trends-on-february-2015-visa-bulletin/

    Looks like date will till end of summer 2009 by the end of fiscal year 2015.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Hi Ambal
    My PD is 11/7/2008. I am in EAD now. What do you think about my GC ?

    Thanks
    Victor

    ReplyDelete
  46. Hi Ambal,
    My PD is 11/30/2009. Any chance of getting EAD this year?

    Please let me know.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Any predictions for March 1st 2004 EB3 India.......

    ReplyDelete
  48. We will get some insight on the eb3 movement once the January 2015 inventory date is out which is expected any time now.

    ReplyDelete
  49. It's been 2 months now but there is no action/movement on Obama Executive Action. Where and how does it called executive action?

    ReplyDelete
  50. Hi!

    My priority date is July 2010 for EB2. I do have a slight chance of getting it done in the EB 1(b) category but it will cost about $14,000. I am expecting to change employers in 2016 July. Do you think I should go for the Eb1 category or wait for my Priority date to be current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are you serious ?. Dont even think about waiting. You have like 1.5 years before you are going to change your employer. I wish I were in your shoes. I could get my GC in 3 months and then keep changing jobs. 14k is nothing for a EB1 GC.

      Delete
    2. If I were you, I will wait considering following facts
      1. New employer won't file your GC right away. it will take at least 6 months to get the process started. Another 6 months [Optimistic view] to get it approved. With current state, I strongly believe that you will be current by mid year 2016 worst case.

      2. Uncertainty about GC process and new employer risk. if you are with current employer, you don't need to prove yourself and work hard for nothing. regular work hours and more fun time with family. when you have new work, people work hard to prove that there are worthy hire. In that case, you need burn your family fun time....


      Delete
  51. News flash
    http://www.murthy.com/2015/01/22/newsflash-usics-director-says-h-4-ead-rules-close-at-hand/

    ReplyDelete
  52. Eb3 India pd2004 dec any predictions please?

    ReplyDelete
  53. It is not what Charles says. It is how the numbers are consumed that counts. Think of this we are retracing the path of previous year. The question is we will go further than previous or not. We will definitely go. Here are the reasons.

    1. A lot of people in EB2 in 2008/2009 have already got green cards. I personally know 2.

    2. The number of labors filed in 2008 -2010 was less due to recession.

    3. Compared to previous year this time we are already ahead. Last year it was stagnant at 2004. We have already reached end of 2005 indicating eb3 to eb2 conversions are not happening as frequently as last year.

    I will take a bet it will go till end of 2011 this time.

    Let me come back to inventory in a minute. The *key* thing the last year's path is being retraced. The key *question* is how much farther than last year we will go this time. To answer this question, we should not look at this year numbers in isolation but compare this year's numbers with last year numbers. In every sense this year numbers are better than last year. Last year the eb2 I inventory number on OCt 31 2013 was 32K. The eb2 I inventory number on Oct 2014 is 20k. In relative terms this year looks much better than last year. This year we will go far.

    Let us talk in absolute numbers. There is 20K inventory as of now. There are two types of inventory here. Old inventory: that couldn't capitalize last year, New Inventory: The one that got added recently due to eb3 to eb2 conversions. The old inventory is existing there because there are technical issues there (my friend Apr/2009 got GC last year) such as having broken rules, not replied RFEs, got laid off, left country after I485 etc. A signifcant fraction of the old inventory won't materialize this time also. What I am saying is being proved because dates are moving faster now than last year.

    Don't look absolutely. Compare last year states with this year state and the question we will go farther than last year.

    2011 is my bet. I would not be suprised if we hit 2012.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2015/01/latest-uscis-visa-bulletin-predictions.html#more

      Delete
  54. I am reading few times that there is Possible EAD for 2011 end PD candidates by year end?

    Is this with the assumption that Obama EO will be in effect or based on inventory data available?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not for this year for sure, but may be next year, But for sure in 2017.

      Delete
  55. E3 IND Priority DEC 1 2003. Did infopass and the officer said "pending." I cannot give additional info b/c file is being adjudicated @ Texas Service Center. Just going to have to keep waiting? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  56. My priority date is 22nd Dec 2003 EB3 India, is it current as per feb 2015 bulletin?

    ReplyDelete
  57. Hi all,

    My PD is June 2011 EB2 India, When can i apply for EAD and When can i get GC. Thanks in advance

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You will get your EAD by Sep 2015.
      Be ready with your health check up.

      Delete
    2. Practically it will take at least 2-3 years from now.

      Delete
  58. Does anyone here see any hopes on executive action on - Modernize, improve and clarify immigrant and non immigrant visa program this year?

    ReplyDelete
  59. http://www.gtlaw-insidebusinessimmigration.com/visas/january-2015-visa-bulletin-some-good-news-but-executive-action-benefits-cannot-come-soon-enough/

    can anybody throw light on article in this link. especially the Spring 2015 part..

    ReplyDelete
  60. My priority date is Nov 17th 2003 India EB3, I filed 485 on nov 7th 2014 for first time and got my EAD/AP last week. Any idea about when can i get me GC?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think, you will get it at any time

      Delete
    2. Thanks, hopefully i can get it next 1 or 2 months.

      Delete
  61. Looks like EB2 India will be 8 years +
    and
    EB3 India will be 13 years +

    What a wastage of career and time......................

    ReplyDelete
  62. Indeed a waste of time for all EB categories...

    ReplyDelete
  63. USCIS Finally Submitted Today H-4 EAD Final Rule for OMB Approval: A Final Step for Implementation of Legally Binding Rule !!!

    I'm glad something is happening w.r.to immigration ...

    ReplyDelete
  64. Hi Ambal,

    My PD is Apr 02 2012. When do you think I will get me EAD?

    Thanks,
    Pooja

    ReplyDelete
  65. based on trackitt there is a lot of current PDs in EB3-India who are stuck at TSC. I am one of those. Any idea what's going on there ?

    ReplyDelete
  66. March 2015 VB released

    http://www.travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-march-2015.html

    EB2 advancement for India from 9/1/2005 to 1/1/2007

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Does anybody know why we some movements in march ?? Ideally, we see it around Aug/ Sep when new Visa numbers become available ...

      I'm happy that its moving fwd. Just curious why it is different this year ..

      Ambals, can you please share your thoughts ?? Also, how far you think this may move until it goes back ??

      Delete
  67. hope it moves faster in next few months. h4 ead is also moving in right direction. Really appreciate the good work of ambals

    ReplyDelete
  68. unjustied with EB3 India. Please remove backlog EB3 India. My PD is July 2006. please let me know. when would be current

    ReplyDelete
  69. unjustied with EB3 India. Please remove backlog EB3 India. My PD is July 2006. please let me know. when would be current

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Looking at visa bulletin waiting in eb3 is waste of time. Port to eb2 or else wait 6years.

      Delete
  70. unjustied with EB3 India. Please remove backlog EB3 India. My PD is July 2006. please let me know. when would be current

    ReplyDelete
  71. unjustied with EB3 India. Please remove backlog EB3 India. My PD is July 2006. please let me know. when would be current

    ReplyDelete