Wednesday, March 11, 2015

April 2015 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


April 2015 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India moved from 01 JAN 07 to 01 SEP 07. EB2 China moved from 01 SEP 10 to 01 APR 11. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is that EB2 India have started moving earlier than expected and it is moving fast. Another, good news is EB2 China is moving forward.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 01 JAN 04 to 08 JAN 04. EB3 China moved from 22 OCT 11 to 01 JAN 11. For all other countries the date moved from 01 JUN 14 to 01 OCT 14.

Good news is the dates for most of countries have moved. There is a retrogression in EB3 China number.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was released last month.

Current I-485 inventory shows, For EB2 India, there are 21,082 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. This number was 20,263 in the previous edition. For EB3 India, it is 27,472  applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. It was 29,422 in previous edition.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:
I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India:
I expected the dates to stay the same till June. But, DOS is using a different strategy this time. They have moved a little in Feb Bulletin and they moved more than an year in Mar Bulletin and 8 months in April Bulletin. I am hoping they keep the forward movement trend. 

Links:

Read on Executive Action related to employment based - http://www.uscis.gov/immigrationaction#4

You can see the official April 2015 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-april-2015.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

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130 comments:

  1. June 2009 PD EB2 India any chance this year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Did not you get EAD? Calrify what you are asking for GC or EAD chances?

      Delete
    2. I hope it will become current around August 2015.

      Delete
    3. GC, have my EAD since 2012.

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    4. F3 category for india is running real slow... My PD is april 2006... How long will it take... Pl answer.

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    5. F3 category for india is running real slow... My PD is april 2004... What r the chances of this PD to became current...

      Delete
  2. While I am particularly looking for when Jan 2009 EB2 becomes current, could Ambals, or readers run analysis on PD movement based on these trends and available inventory?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I hope it will become current around July 2015.

      Delete
    2. Thanks Ambals!
      So assuming July 2015 is when my PD (jan 2009) becomes current, is it reasonable to assume that I shall get GC this year ? (I already have the EAD)

      Delete
    3. Yes, assuming no more inquiries like new medical.

      Delete
  3. Due to heavy porting from EB3, it will stop at JAN 2009 for this year. USCIS Need to put a limit on Porting from EB3 to EB2 like 100 per year. Otherwise EB2 guyz End up waiting for more than 7-10 years. No value for advance degree professionals.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think people with advanced degrees should submit a petition to stop this madness of porting from EB3. This is preposterous.

      Delete
    2. Agree. Either a limit on porting or take a new PD when one is eligible to port. The system right now is not reflective of a true first come first serve model.

      Delete
    3. This was funny

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    4. Do you really think aquiring advance degrees should give you green card faster...and if you really have "ADVANCED" degree then why are you seems so worried.. its all related to demand...there is more demand for low skill jobs

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    5. It is worth noting that porting option is not available to just any applicant, only applicants with advanced degree or otherwise eligible can port.

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    6. So now real eb2 Indian crabs here understand that you are enjoying the spillover half to be given to EB3 India desi organization 1v bribed and reinterpreted the law : result jab 2004 eb3 India still waiting so all eb3 Indians should port port and port baby port

      Delete
    7. Since EB2 people are extremely smart people, they should port to EB1, and stop whining about the lowly EB3 folks.

      Delete
  4. Hello Ambal,

    This progress looks promising. Do you think that August 2011 PD can get EAD by this year end?
    As of today, China EB2 is 01 april 2011. That means if there is any spillover, that will go to india mostly to EB2 category. Because other country and categories are ahead of EB2I.
    Also, USCIS knows how many people are in waiting to get GC till May 2010, since they have moved the dates in 2012 and hopelly all of them gotten EAD.
    According to my research (Matt's Theory excel sheet), Conservative Spill over for this year could be 15k and inventory also says almost 15k is waiting for GC till May 2010.

    Am i correct on the concept of inventory building, Which USCIS perfomrs to find out how many people waiting in line to get GC for a particular date. If so then they move the dates and find out exact number and creates inventory.

    Right now they have exact inventory till May 2010 and if spill over clears up the inventory then it will be Zero. If my understaning is right, Should not they move dates after May 2010 for atleast 12-18 months from July'15 onwards to build the inventory for future Numbers?

    I am just trying to validate my theory here. No Pun Intended and welcomed :)

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mine is march 2011. I am not seeing that much light.

      Delete
    2. When the dates get closer to May 2010, they will open up to get more inventory. I am hoping it will be around Nov 2015. How long they will open up is totally up to them. I am hoping they will open it up for another year or more.

      Delete
  5. @ Puneet you are not considering the heavy porting and plus you are assuming that everyone till May 2012 applied for I-485. Thats not true. Also you should count folks who probably are married and have kids will consume additional visa numbers. Sorry for the bleak picture buddy. My best guess this year we will prolly touch Dec 2009

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Kartman : I am not talking about getting Green with PD Aug 2011 this year. Your guess is that People with PD Dec 2009 will be Greened by this year, Right? Means they already have EAD, Right? I do not know how you predicted that but i personally know 2 people with Aug 2009 PD got GC. My guess is by June 2015 VB, Upto Dec 2008 will get GC and before Quota opens for FY2016, PD upto March 2010 will get their GC. And they will move the dates to create Inventory.

      I am trying to Validate my theory on Inventory Building. Also, I believe the current inventory that has been released includes the Porting People + Family till May 2010 (Whoever has applied, Their loss if they did not). However, Number from Inventory till May 2010 is accurate so the spillover will cover those number (15K) and those pending cases will get GC.

      What i am more interested in is getting EAD for Aug 2011 PD. If the existing Inventory clears up with Spillover then don't you think they have to build inventory to know how many GC applications they have to do for FY 2016. The question is how far the dates will be open after May 2010 (18 months may be historically) and when they will start moving dates beyond May 2010?

      Delete
  6. I thought their inventory accounted for family members that will be beneficiary.

    ReplyDelete
  7. My PD is 21st May 2009--EB2 India. I am hoping that my priority dates will be current in the June 2015-July 2015 visa bulletin. Is my assumption correct?

    ReplyDelete
  8. My PD is Feb 2009. Got EAD Dec 2014. Any chance of getting the GC this year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I hope it will become current around July 2015.

      Delete
  9. PD is Dec 2010. Any chance that it will be current in 2015?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hopefully around Nov 2015. We have to wait and see how far they go by Sept 2015, that will give an idea.

      Delete
  10. My priority date is 12-may-2014 EB2-I

    Will I get my GC this year ?

    When will my date be current ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EB2-I ?? May 2014 ?? And wants to know if you can get GC this year ... All you have to do is say "abracadabra" and you will get your GC this year...

      Delete
    2. Current trend to get GC is about 6 years. With that, roughly it will be May 2020 to get your GC.

      Delete
  11. PD is Sep 2010. Any chance of getting EAD in 2015?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We have to wait to Sept 2015 to see where the dates go. If it goes far enough, they will open up for more inventory. My guess at this point is, about Nov 2015 is when it will happen.

      Delete
    2. @ Ambals: If the dates go far enough, then is there a change that Jul 2011 PD may also get an EAD by end of the year?

      Delete
    3. Thanks Ambals!!!

      Delete
    4. If it becomes current, say Dec 2015, then you have to apply for EAD, then it will take like 75 days to get the actual EAD.

      Delete
  12. Any chances of seeing June 2014 Priority Dates this year? if not this, when could be the best possibility?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not this year but definitely 2024 there is some possibility.i think this prediction helps....

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    2. Current trend is 6 years. With that rough assumption, it will be about June 2020 to get your GC.

      Delete
    3. Sorry, I meant to ask June 2011 not June 2014

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    4. June 2011 may be. We need to see how far the dates move in Sept 2015 and from that point, how long they want to move.

      Delete
    5. Thank you @Ambals

      Delete
  13. Is there a chance for EB3 India to get spillover, if EB3 ROW become current by June or July? Since EB3 ROW had 10000 pending application, as of Oct 2014 inventory and had only 8000 remains in Jan 2014 inventory list. If ROW becomes current by June or July, means there is low demand for GC in EB3 ROW. Does it mean unused GC quota from EB3 ROW can get spill over to EB3 India?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes. If there is spillover from EB3, as per rule all of them will go to most retrogressed, this case EB3 India.

      Delete
  14. Any idea dec 29 2009 EB2I will be current?
    Any hopes this year for EAD?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I sincerely hope it will become current by Sept 2015

      Delete
  15. My priority date is May 2012. When will I get the GC.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For GC current trend is 6 to 7 years. For EAD we have to wait till the dates reach may 2010.

      Delete
  16. Hi, My PD is July 2008, got my EAD Sep 2014, any idea when we'll see my PD becoming current?
    Also, from the time PD become current, how long for the 484 decision?
    how long for GC to be in hand once the decision is for approval?

    ReplyDelete
  17. Ambals, Should we hope for any implementation soon after the teleconference for - Employment-based Reform Parts of Obama Immigration Actions on 03/19/2015?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. H4 EAD for spouse took more than a year. I am guessing this will be the same as well.

      Delete
  18. Morning my PD is 11 nov 2011 i'm in the F2B so i'm wondering you think it will take?

    ReplyDelete
  19. My PD is April 22 2004 with EB3, will be getting GC by Oct 2015? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At one week per month, it is tough. Also, roughly there are 2250 folks in front of you. So, it will be like another 8 months. Spill over and Porting can make it advance faster.

      Delete
  20. Hi Ambals,

    My pd is April 7 2008, do you think I can be current in next month bulletin?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hopefully by next month. By worst case in June.

      Delete
    2. Apr 9 2008 PD here.. Hello mate! :)

      Delete
  21. Hello friends:
    My PD is MAY 2008. Let's assume that the date becomes current in May bulletin. If I apply I-1485 in May, when do you think it will get approved? This year or next year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In 2016 , YOU WILL GET IT

      Delete
    2. Forgot to mention: EB2 India

      Delete
    3. If it becomes current in May, you will get by September.

      Delete
    4. Thanks Ambals

      Delete
  22. My PD is May 2004 with EB3 india, will be getting GC by this year 2015?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At one week per month, it is tough. Also, roughly there are 2250 folks in front of you. So, it will be like another 8 months. Spill over and Porting can make it advance faster.

      Delete
  23. Ambals, Will the EB2 India dates move steadily with out retrogression this year because of the early movement? My PD is Dec 2008 in EB2I, i applied in Aug 2014. Looks like my PD will be current again in June or July VB,
    1.Do i have fair chances of getting GC this year?
    2.I did my medicals in July 2014, will i be getting RFE for Medicals to redo again?
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ambals, Will the EB2 I dates retrogress this year? if so, Aproximatily in which month?

      Delete
  24. Hi FRINDS,

    MY PD IS - OCT 2009 and have EAD.
    Will I get GC in 2015 ? I mean what is chance?

    ReplyDelete
  25. My PD is x, will I get my gc in y?

    People need to read the question already answered.

    Btw, my internal sources say that everyone will be current by November.

    Internal sources = feelings in my gut

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I love your internal sources....Be optimistic...!!

      Delete
    2. "I love your internal sources" That's disgusting!

      Delete
  26. Eb2 I first time july 2014 filer with a priority date july 2008. Got EAD in sept . Online status shows fingerprint ready. Anyone else in the same boat ? Do you think pd will move to july 2008 in a month or so ?

    ReplyDelete
  27. Hi Ambals
    I am hoping my PD become current by September and would be able to I file for I-485 this September. If the PD later regress, will that affect approval of I-485 application, (which means do I still have to wait for PD again to become current to get my GC). I know I can apply for EAD, but question is regarding GC.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes. PD has to be current to get GC.

      Delete
    2. Ambals

      Then how does it work for those whose PD has regressed after applying for I-485? Some of them may have to wait one year or even two years to see the PD become current again. What would happen PD stays currently only for one month only after I-485 is approved and then regress again? Will they issue GC within that month?

      Delete
  28. Hi Ambals,
    My priority date is March 24th 2008 - EB2-I.
    Is there a possibility of receiving my GC this year? I opted out of applying for an EAD. Medicals and fingerprints we submitted in June 2014, and I-485 was filed on July 2nd, 2014.

    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you, Ambals. Approximately, what month should i expect the GC?

      Delete
  29. Hello Ambal,

    When do you think EB2 22 June will be current ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hai Le, Saal toh bolbe nahi kiya, puch raha hai kab milega, kab milega ... Saal toh batao Bhaiya, Sab jyotish baithe hai idhar.. exact date and time bata denge ki kab milega :)

      Delete
  30. Hi Ambal -

    My PD is June 2007 and I applied on July 1st 2014. My data is current from April 2015. When do you think I can get my green card?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You should get in April itself.

      Delete
    2. Hello Ambals ,

      When do you think EB2 22nd June will be current ?

      Delete
    3. Thanks a lot Ambals, keeping my fingers crossed.

      Delete
  31. Hi Ambals, My PD is Feb 10 2010 EB2, waiting to file 485, any idea when my PD will become current?? anytime this year??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Before FY 2016 Quota, My Best Guess.

      Delete
  32. Hi Ambals, My PD is Jon 2011 EB2, waiting to file 485, any idea when my PD will become current?? anytime this year??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Probably, Dec 2015 if Dates started moving to build inventory.

      Delete
  33. I am new here and I have a question. Why do we have demand data only till 1st May, 2010? What happens to people who applied after that?

    Thanks a lot!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No after that Priority date for EB2 India has applied for I-485 yet. Thats why there are no numbers there.

      Delete
    2. Interesting. Thank you so much :)

      Delete
    3. Because, USCIS has moved the dates to 01 May 2010 somewhere in Feb or March 2012 Visa Bulletin by mistake and since then they are regretting and not moving dates after because of unavailability of VISA numbers. As soon as this clears up hopefully this FY's spillover dates will start moving for another year or two.

      Delete
  34. Hello,

    my PD is 04/2008 EB2 India.

    1) When will my dates be current
    2) How many more months after that will i get GC
    3) any idea when retrogression start
    - Geeth

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. is H1B not good enough currently?

      Delete
    2. 2008 Dates was current last year, what happened last time. So, you have not applied for i-485? What were you doing, Man?

      Delete
  35. I think you should stop this prediction. No one can predict what DOS is going to do. Anyways you have been wrong since 3 -4 months now already.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Hi ambals
    any chance for eb2 oct 2010 to get current this year?
    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You may get EAD but not GC for Sure.

      Delete
  37. Hi Ambals,

    I was hoping you could help me with a question.

    I have an approved I-140. My PD is current, but I have not yet filed for my I-485. I have used up all 6 years of my H-1b, but just received a 3 year extension as a benefit of the approved I-140 and AC21 law. Can I change my job now and get a new H-1b?

    Thanks a lot for your help.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes. U can. but will hv to re start the gc process from perm. U get to retain your priority date. im in the same boat like you.

      Delete
  38. Hi,

    I'm on EB2-India, Jan 10, 2010 as Priority Date and never applied for my I-485.

    1) Any chances of getting current in 2015?

    2) What are the regulations of leaving the current employer and joining a new one after turning in your I-485? Can I do AC-21 as soon as my date becomes current?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1. Yes, By Sept 15.

      2. You have to wait atleast 180 Days is for applying AC21. Employer can revoke i-485 before 180 Days.

      Delete
    2. Thanks for your reply, which was comforting. From all the comments and replies within this blog post, a lot of folks have assumed that during this year (2015), the latest EB2-India will go to is May 2010 Priority Date. How is this assumption made? It seems you are pretty certain that Jan 2010 PD for EB2-India will be current in fall 2015. How are you getting this data?

      Delete
  39. EB2-I Feb -2010 ! Any chance of getting GC this year?

    ReplyDelete
  40. Hi Ambals,
    EB2 India
    My PD is May 2007 and filed I485 on Oct 30th. Any thoughts on when to expect GC ?
    Thanks for all you are doing here..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think you're current in APril 2015.

      Delete
    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  41. Hi Ambals, my priority date 22nd April 2009 EB2I. Got my EAD last year when i filed i485 in sep 2014. will i get my GC this year ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ambels where is your response ????

      Delete
  42. Hi Ambal- what happens to GC when you are changing job with a PD of May 2010 and I-140 approved since 2011. Can you use AC21 with new employer letter and not go through the Perm? Can you start with I-140 (using AC21) and continue. Specifically since you are on H1B extension for last 4years. Please advise/suggest. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Even if u have approved I-140, when u switch employer, your new employer need to file for PERM and I-140 once again. Only thing when u file for I-140, u can carry fwd ur PD date.

      Delete
  43. HI Ambals,
    Thanks for your great help. My PD is Dec, 2012. Do you know when approximately will i get my 1. EAD and 2. GC?

    ReplyDelete
  44. My pd is jan 2012.. Any ideas when would I get EAD?

    I guess there were No labor filings for few months in late 2011

    ReplyDelete
  45. Anyone,
    My EB2 PD is Nov-2010 - any chance of date becoming current this year? Looking at April bulletin - the dates moved 9 months - so can we expect Nov-2010 to be current in another 4 months?
    This wait is killing.
    My friend has PD - Dec-2010 and hes EB3 - wants to convert to EB2 (but has no masters) would there be any chance? Hes been working in US for past 8 years...
    any help of advice is appreciated.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For your priority date you need to wait till Aug'17 and for your friend another year.

      Delete
    2. EB3 PD Dec-2010 and you are suggesting Aug'18? LOL

      Delete
  46. Hi Ambal- could you share the current timeframe for a Perm process on EB2 with a PD of May'10 ? This is a job change situation. Please no guessing people, looking forward to your inputs Ambal. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  47. Hi , my question is regarding GC card holder spouse entry in US.
    My husband is GC card holder n currently in US. We recently got married and I am in India. He has filled my GC recently.
    Can u suggest what are the different ways to go to US before my GC.
    Generally how much time it takes to get Spouse GC?
    Can I expedite my GC process?
    Your Suggestion wud surely be helpful.

    Thanks!!

    ReplyDelete
  48. Hi Ambal, my PD is eb2 May 10th 2010. In 2012, we missed it by 10 days. Can I expect green card or EAD this year. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete