Wednesday, June 10, 2015

July 2015 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


July 2015 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India stayed at 01 OCT 08. EB2 China moved from 01 JUN 13 to 01 OCT 13. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is EB2 China is moving forward.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 22 JAN 04 to 01 FEB 04. EB3 China stayed at 01 SEP 11. EB3 Philippines became UnavailableFor all other countries the date moved from 15 FEB 15 to 01 APR 15.

Good news is the dates for most of countries have moved forward. 

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was supposed to come out couple of months back. Nothing yet. We will keep a watch on that and will keep you all posted.

Current I-485 inventory shows, For EB2 India, there are 21,082 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. This number was 20,263 in the previous edition. For EB3 India, it is 27,472  applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. It was 29,422 in previous edition.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:
I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India:
I thought the dates will move to 01 FEB 2010 by September visa bulletin -- http://ambals.blogspot.com/2015/03/what-to-expect-in-fy-2015-eb2-india.html. I was hoping they will start applying spillovers from July Bulletin and it will move faster. But, what has happened is totally opposite. The EB2 India forward movement stopped. The date stayed the same. Over the last few days, they have indicated that there is a very high sudden demand for other EB2 categories. This directly affects the spillover to EB2 India. I hope DOS is just being cautious and keeping the date the same to watch the demand this month. Now, the dates movement will totally depend on demand for other EB2 categories. I hope the demand stabilizes and they move it forward in August.

Links:

Read on Executive Action related to employment based - http://www.uscis.gov/immigrationaction#4

You can see the official June 2015 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-july-2015.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

208 comments:

  1. Seems to me, worst case scenario is kicking in. Demand in EB2 ROW has gone up and by moving Pr. date early this year, USCIS has opened the can of worms :) EB3 to EB2 upgrades are very high. I know in my friend circle 9 people have upgraded from Eb3 to EB2 in last 3 months...and couple of my friends with early 2009 date are waiting eagerly the dates to be current so that they can upgrade. I can imagine in entire USA how many people would have already been upgraded from EB3 to EB2. My best guess, this year spill over would be around 10-15 K max and EB3 to EB2 upgrades will consume almost whole spill over. There are 27K pending cases for EB3 I up to 2007 and add up another 15k-20k EB3 I cases up to Oct 2008. Total would be around 42-47K pending cases in EB3 I before OCt 2008. My guess, dates will not move anymore this year. Next finance year 485 pending inventory in OCT 2015 will still show 20-25K pending cases for EB2 I and if USCIS follows the same approach next year (Move dates early), you will see the same movements :). Hope this will not happen and my P date (2010 June) would be current next year.....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe worst is going to happen.., and we need to wait for Obama's I140 EAD to kick in some time next year. My PD is also in 2010 June....

      Delete
    2. My PD id Sep 2010 EB2 and look like every one in EB3 is upgrading to EB2.. So, my PD is not going to be current until next 70 years... So much frustrated by this VB...

      Delete
    3. Any progress on obama regulation for giving EAD to h1b holder whose i140 is approved? I guess that is the only hope can make the stability.

      Delete
  2. what are chances of EB3 India getting spill over from EB3 ROW ?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Do you guys think because of H4-EAD applications high volume they suspended the Premium process and they don't have enough resources to take care of new I-485 applications. So they did not moved this month and they move next month builten?

    ReplyDelete
  4. No Worries,Be prepared to go back home and at least to enjoy the rest of the life and moving forward this place is going to be more worst.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why don't YOU go back ?? Enjoy the Rest of YOUR LIFE

      Delete
  5. EB2 not moving is a shock

    ReplyDelete
  6. Waiting on I-485 Inventory that will tell the actual story about the demand and they are playing games manipulating 485 inventory and delaying it no transparency or consistency in I-485 inventory.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Seriously !!! why they don't publish the Inventory yet ????

      Delete
  7. When you say other countries moving forward is "good", is it good for us because then less demand from other countries means more spillover available to us??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. spillover available to us .. to match with thr PD.

      Delete
  8. My PD is April 2009 (EB2) and my wife got an RFE (bonafide marriage) on her I485 in April 2015. I just checked the case status and USCIS responded to the RFE (The case status was not available until yesterday). I have a good feeling that USCIS will move the dates forward in the next 2 bulletins. Anyways, only time will tell. Good luck everyone!

    ReplyDelete
  9. EB2-I is in big trouble.....No spillover to EB2-I this year.....

    Employment-Based Immigrant Visa Projections for the Coming Months

    State Department officials project that EB-2 India will not advance further this fiscal year. Because immigrant visa demand from other countries has doubled, it is unlikely that unused visa numbers from other categories will be available for application to EB-2 India, as had been the case in prior years.

    http://mail.fragomen.com/newsresources/xprNewsDetailFrag.aspx?xpST=USAlerts&news=3173


    ReplyDelete
  10. Friends, Let's have HOPE.

    Without hope we will have high blood pressure.

    ReplyDelete
  11. They should post consistently I-485 inventory so that they don't cook visa demand ,specially delaying for 5 to six month .
    Once I-485 is out it easier to figure out spillover more accurately and predict future movements.

    ReplyDelete
  12. DOS cannot do this actually.. Its being 3 rd year consecutive that EB I didn't cross the 2009 barrier. Strangely they don't release the I-485 as well.. seriously its kind a Dead end situation. But nothing can be done from our side only thing we can wait and watch ...

    ReplyDelete
  13. Guys, Any idea Dec 2008 Eb2 India will be current in next couple of bulletins?. or i need to wait till next year?. Please let me know.

    ReplyDelete
  14. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Surprising, shocking, frustrating!!... can't express in words how disappointed I am along with many of us. Somehow I feel that if porting from EB3 to EB2 is allowed, then there should be some porting from EB2 to some other higher category.. EB1 Managerial category probably... I mean with the increasing amount of porting, there should be someway to vent the original EB2 applicants. Doesn't seem right that original EB2 applicants and the "portants" should be in the same pool... anyways thats just my thought. Porting just extends the vicious circle to an infinite blackhole of unpredictability. Something seriously needs to be done!!... otherwise it is going to be an infinite wait.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They Should Stop Porting....EB3 to EB2

      Delete
  16. They Should Stop Porting....EB3 to EB2

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You have to understand certain things..All the employers started applying on EB2 from 2010 onwards. Prior to that, every body shoppers applied on EB3 to hold the candidate. Even I was eligible for EB2 but my employer forced to apply on EB3 citing unnecessary queries. In 2011, I ported to EB2 and no queries came. My employer purposefully dragged and cried to port to EB2. Many, like me got trapped. So EB3-EB2 porting is fair enough. The main culprit is EB1 Multinational Manager

      Delete
    2. agree with you 100%

      Delete
  17. Please STOP EB3 to EB2 Porting

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please stop giving green cards

      Delete
    2. I don't know who you are man. But your comment is hilarious!! you made my day!

      Delete
    3. Boss, I have a master's with 13 years of experience. Had to do Eb3 on the insistence by my firm. Had no choice to go back leaving the American dream. Ported in 2014 Dec got gc in April 2015. Pd for Eb3 was 2006. You don't tell not to port, you may have come to usa in 07 or 08 or something like that. Hum yahaan 2003 se jhak nahin Mara Rahe. After 2010 every Tom dick and Harry applies on eb2, you should have come to usa in 2002, 2003 or 2004. Beta tab pata chalta aapko Kitna g**nd lagti hai and how everyone weathered the recession. You are just FOB after 2010 and trying to preach . So just keep quite and enjoy the wait like lot us did.

      Delete
  18. atleast dates are just stalled and not retrogressing.. so if things don't turn south.. we may possibly see further movement during end of fiscal year for left over visa.keeping finger crossed.

    ReplyDelete
  19. My priority date is 2009 May EB3-I

    Will the date for EB2 become current this year ??
    I am waiting to port and get my GC.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Start your porting process now, why are you waiting to become current....

      If you start porting now at least it may take a year

      Delete
  20. I'm in EB2, PD Dec 2010. I came to this country in 2003 for MS. It is indeed frustrating.

    But, please stop suggesting that eb3 ro eb2 should be stopped. It's like turning on ourselves. It is indeed frustrating, but it is also selfish to push fellow iIndian ndians down for us to come up. They were waiting f9r a ling timw too. Luclonger than eb2 and we all nnow it. It's simply not right and most of you know it too.

    Let's hope for the best and prepare for the worst. We know how the immigration syse works in this country.
    1. Live with it, or
    2. Find a way to be happy or
    3. Do something about it that's helps all immigrants to support the cause.

    Stop bitching about the inevitable and think positive. Because that's the only thing we can pretty much do.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry about the spelling errors. It take a toll to write long sentences on the phone when you are half awake in the morning :)

      Delete
    2. When supplies run short, even Americans turn on each other. We saw that in Katrina Hurricane. So to expect these egocentric desis to behave any better is hilarious!

      The vast & varied experience of ported-EB2 (some bad apples apart) brings so much more worth to the industry, than the freshly minted MS-EB2 (some exceptional apples apart), that EB3-to-EB2 porting should almost be a right!

      The only fraud, I believe, is the EB1-multinational manager, where desi firms are artificially tagging a super-duper title to secure future employment based GCs

      Delete
    3. Like your post dude..

      Delete
  21. I think in next few month they will start applying spillover visa numbers and EB2 I may move few more months before they retrogress again.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This assumption doesn't look correct after USCIS confirmed that there will not be any movement for EB2-I this fiscal year. Let's wait will June/July next year (2016), to see any movement.

      Delete
  22. when do USCIS will release the 485 inventory ??

    ReplyDelete
  23. After this news
    http://mail.fragomen.com/newsresources/xprNewsDetailFrag.aspx?xpST=USAlerts&news=3173

    Do you think any chance for EB2 I date will move further during this fiscal year??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In current situation, it looks like true. Even if EB2-I gets 10K SO, EB3 porters will eat it. Situation may be clear with 485 pending inventory but it looks like H4 candidates have flooded EAD applications in thousands and they don't have work force to tackle the situation and that's why they are holding the 485 inventory too :)

      Delete
    2. 180K H4 EAD Applications to be more specific ...

      Delete
    3. H4 EAD has nothing to do with I-485 inventory .I-485 tracks or matches number of visa available for a year to application or priority dates getting current for that year or month in various categories.

      Delete
  24. Thats the thing. There is nothing to be against the "porters".. the system allows it and so its all fine. The system should be amended to give a priority to the original EB2 applicants because I think they have earned it (advanced degrees earned in US, publications, research etc..). However the majority of porters (easily 80%), are porting just out of their experience and skills (And 90% of them are IT based analysts who may have done a PMP/Black belt certificate to upgrade..cant even call them a Techie)... that they have gathered over the years working. Thats not a bad thing at all. And when EB3 is similar to being a lifelong wait, everyone has the right to move ahead and rightfully when you have worked hard and attained certain skills, you should be allowed to move higher in the order...

    May be, the system should be amended, so that whenever there is a porting, what may be the case, you dont retain your old PD (even if you had an approved I140). That way you are not taking advantage that is not earned by you. Thats a fair thing to. Otherwise the day is not far when EB3 will be phased out or backlogs for both of these categories will be same and hell will let loose!!.. :) :)...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Or USCIS should impose a Rule if you Have EAD with EB3 you cannot port to EB2... There were thousands of people who have EAD with EB3 (thanks to 2007)..

      Delete
    2. I am in your boat too. EB2 with Masters and so called "special skills" and "special certifications".
      I am really good at what I do in my job (like most people here regardless of their education, EB category, background etc).

      I understand the frustration on the dates, but your suggestions are short sighted (to stop or limit porting). It is reality of life (and legally allowed process) and it feels unfair for the most part. So is most things in life.

      There will be bad apples everywhere. We cannot start to differentiate us (EB2) and think we are extra special. we are not. Some people have better luck than others, but for the most part we are all going through the same pain of lengthy immigration process.

      Stop giving suggestions that are self centered and short sighted and stop making this process more painful than what it is.

      Take inspiration from all the H4 folks and their fight with their delay
      https://www.facebook.com/H4visaacurse

      In the midst of all these, one thing we can do is stay positive. Lets hope for the best and lets stop pulling fellow immigrants down for personal gain.

      Delete
    3. No comparison between EB2 and EB3.. every one is great .... but the truth is, every time the date moves till mid and retro to 2004/2005 and next year again same situation and expert says Due to heavy porting have to take this decision. Point is if Porting is the issue fix the loop hole.

      Delete
    4. What you are referring to is frustration, which I share with thousabd others. That doesn't make porting the issue and a lophole. Its legal.

      Will you agree your argument if you were in eb3 and eligible to port to eb2? This is what I refer as short a sighted view.
      I am thankful for where I am despite the long waits and let's hope for the best.

      Delete
    5. Porting is legal. If you are complaining about the system, complain about the system that grants citizenship to children born on this soil irrespective of the parents nationality. Would you say to change those rules too ? Very few western countries grant citizenship by birth. I am EB2 Feb-2012. I would want the system to go faster, but have nothing against porting.

      Delete
  25. We need to get US to change regulations. They want us to work for them....we are giving what they want....it is time they give us what we want!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. let me know if we collectivally are planning to do something..one problem is common american does not know about the issues problem faced by us ( us means all waiting for green card)
      it can be simple as wearing a T shirt saying ..i lived in America for 10 years still i am not permanent....some slogan or some thing of that sort..

      Delete
    2. Get a tattoo on your forehead

      Delete
    3. r u guys r ******** idiots? I can't believe u people talking like ths .. its LAW .. follow the law n get wat u want .. just to let u know .. I am in queue frm last 9 years .. anyways .. stop begging like ths .. it makes u as well as us look very bad.

      Anyways .. Ambals .. Thank You very much for ur service. Please let me know .. if u need any finical assistance to maintain ths blog or taking it for proper full-fledge website.

      I would be more than happy to contribute. Thanks again for ur service.

      And plz don't bother to reply to above 2 *****.

      Delete
    4. I see a f****ing frustrated entrepreneur here. If you following the LAW what f**k are you doing here? You should check the Visa bulletin and file GC when your date get current.

      Delete
  26. can we ask for pending i -485 inventory list.. under FOIA act? i smell something fishy there.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Exactly under FOIA should get information consistently about I-485 inventory list.

      Delete
  27. Maha Chut**yapa :- IV

    ReplyDelete
  28. Looks like EB2-I is in catch 20 situation.
    All allocated quota for EB2-I are eaten up by EB3-1.
    And
    EB-1 is now taking its full quota, so very less spill over.

    Until, EB3-I comes close to EB2-I, its not going to cross 2008.

    Expected trend for EB2-I is 10+ Years.

    2008 = 2018
    2009 = 2019
    2010 = 2020
    2011 = 2021
    And
    after 2011, it will be 15+

    2012 = 2027
    2013 = 2028

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So 2012 Eb2-I will get GC via there kids sponsorship in FB

      Delete
    2. Kids can only apply for parent's GC at the age of 21.

      So a kid born in 2006, can apply for his/her parent's GC in 2027. This is almost the time when a 2012 EB2-I will get his/her EAD.

      Not bad......

      Delete
    3. If you can maintain your H1B until then.. :)

      Delete
    4. "Porting" hume (EB2-1) is modh pe le aayaaaaaaaaaa........aaaaa..... ke dil kare haye HAYEE.. koi (OP) ye bataye kya hoga!!!...

      Delete
    5. Sakhi saiyan toh khoob hi kamaat hai,
      Degree paper shaper bhi khoob jamaat hai
      par jab Green Card ki bari aave,
      To..
      "Porting" Daayan khaye jaat hai!!

      Delete
  29. Would dates move forward in FY 2016 (to say upto May 2009) in October/November 2015? Any guess, predictions anyone?

    ReplyDelete
  30. Bhai kuchh to bolo............

    2028 tak wait karna padega kya ?????

    Sabr ka phal mitha hota hai.........................................................................................................................

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have couple of friends who are almost approaching 45-50 years of age.
      By 2028, they must be looking for another EAD !!!!!

      Delete
  31. i think Immigration Voice is screwing with us...they lobby with this PD movement game....they were pushing for getting the PD movement starting early...so that they always have a good pool of people who may have their EAD but no GC....they are pushing for their agenda..

    ReplyDelete
  32. I don't think ANYBODY really wants a genuine solution to happen.

    IV :- Let this game on. So that their bread n butter will continue. If the problem is solved then their 'dookan' will be closed.

    things will go 10+ years for EB2-I till 2011 Sep. priority date.
    After that it will be 15+ years.......

    Bhai log, forget about this and be happy.

    ReplyDelete
  33. bhai log look like after mind 2009 there will be super long wait.. as thats the time when recession was almost over and business came back in full swing to start sponsoring gc and h1bs.. so there is a heavy rush after that period.. i wont be surprise if it will take couple of years from now on to clear mid 2009 back logs itself.. so bhai log ye sab bhul jao.. savings karo $$$ aur return for good and live like a first class citizen in home country with king size life.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Guys, whether EB3I takes any numbers by porting or not is immaterial. Porting does not exceed 3K per year, and that number is barely enough to move EB2I by a couple of months. Without spillovers exceeding at least 15K, EB2I simply will not see the light of the day. If you want to blame someone, blame the Chinese investors and Indian EB1C managers.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. good point... consulting companies are flooding eb1c with software leads and slave managers.. chinese have now so much money that investing couple of M dollars for gc is not a big deal.

      Delete
    2. I agree with you ... they should take a serious step against this eb1 c filling. surprisingly they never blame this category always says heavy porting from eb3 -> eb2 .... everything is politics

      Delete
    3. My PD is May 2012 .. I was hoping for a EAD around 2018. But now, I think its better to wait another 8 years and hope the new president will be successful in passing a bi-partisan bill that solves the GC issues and I finally get a EAD in 2024 ...

      Delete
    4. May 2012:

      Things can change. Predictions were dire back in 2008. In 2007, everyone rushed to file their GCs. The years from 2010-2014 were damn too good for spillovers. EB2I consumed about 100K visas in those 5 years...averaging 20K an year! And still, the dates did not move well past 2009. That was the kind of demand in the heyday of green card rush of 2006/7.

      It is a possibility going forward, EB2I doesn't get enough spillover. Unfortunately EB1 is the key. As I wrote in the original post here, porting is immaterial. With EB3-ROW almost becoming current, even the 3K porting will eventually disappear. EB1 is the category that is capable of consistently providing 20K falldown visas if it was managed properly without any fraud.

      EB2-ROW can also come around. If EB3-ROW becomes current, that will automatically alleviate EB2-ROW demand.

      EB5 for the forseeable future looks locked.

      Again, anything is possible. With I140 EAD, you may not even need a GC. Good luck,

      Delete
  35. 06/15/2015: EB-2 India Visa Bulletin Prediction by Oppenheim of DOS

    AILA reports that according to Mr. Oppenheim, Unexpectedly, during the past few months, the EB-2 demand for worldwide increased more than doubled, and therefore the EB-2 India cut-off date had to hold steady in July 2015. Should this trend continues, Oppenheim predicts that EB-2 India may not move forward duing August and September 2015. Ouch!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mr Oppenheim should post 485 inventory so that everyone knows what they are doing in the back and that way they are accountable if it is really a demand increase tracking becomes very easy and transparent..Historically they have done errors in predicting demand.

      Delete
  36. Hi Ambals.... Do you have any idea when we can expect the 485 inventory data? It was supposed to be released month of April ...
    Please respond.
    Also, AILA reports, Eb2 worldwide demand increased but at the same time They are saying EB2 ROW dates will be current ... How many visa granted to this category.. Can you provide any numbers for the same?

    ReplyDelete
  37. Aare bhai ab bhi kuchh dekhna, padhna, likhna baaki hai kya ?

    Iske baare mein socho mat. BP badh jayega.
    Ghar mein jhagda honge.......Bachchon ko danthoge......

    Koi phayda nehin.......

    70/30 Jindabad And care for position, work as a contractor......

    ReplyDelete
  38. Are there any laws in US similar to RTI or Transparency of Information types through which we can demand publication of the inventory? It is insane not to publish it...atleast some logical prediction can be carved out from there. Right now, its all based on OPPenheimer dictat and some shooting in the dark.
    And to people who suggest not to think or likewise, each one of us has invested a lot of time and effort in this, atleast I have... to not think or worry about it. Would you have similar attitude with any of your personal investments or businesses? Green Card is similar to a personal investment... where you have invested time, money and your headache. It is a choice that each of us in this forum has made... and people who speak about not worrying or having patience or going back to India... they are just two faced people who have the mentality of "agar yahaan nahi to wahaan hi sahi".... common guys, we know somehow we are helpless... but cant we see that what is going on is INSANE? EB3 has a lifelong wait, EB2 is now becoming a 10-15 yr affair!!.... and on the other hand, there are programs to give legal residency to illegal cross border residents?... Cant we do anything? Dont we have any right to protest or atleast put the word forward?... Hath pe Hath dhare baithne se kuchh nahi hoga... aur na kuchh kabhi hua hai... THIS IS JUST NOT RIGHT..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Check out http://www.foia.gov/

      Delete
    2. people who says "chinta mat koro .." go home and live like a first class citizen and king size life... Why don't they go back and do that... and top of that if they are 4 members family USCIS can save 4 GC :) .

      Delete
    3. tere ko mirchi lagi to mai kya karu.. ROFL

      Delete
    4. Isiliye to sasura bolot hai ki chinta mat karo..........

      Kauno phayda nehin hai........chita karwe, tension hawe Aur hona kuchh nehin babua.....

      Tumne itna likha, phir kya hua ?? Ghanta........

      Bottomline :-
      When we do know that we can NOT do anything in this broken system
      When we do know everybody just acting as doing something But really just taking advantage of us
      When we do know that these predictions are just predictions and nothing is final until you get your GC in hand....
      Then
      why to waste time in that ?

      Delete
  39. Abe oh Bihari time ane par sab ko nikal na hai yaha se, i mean America se.Why you are behind saving GC's for USCIS

    ReplyDelete
  40. Hi Guys,

    I hope this gives some relief and hope to all my fellow countrymen;

    http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2015/05/22/its-official-uscis-begins-rulemaking-process-on-i-140-eads/

    At least we can breathe freely ... if ths rule gets implemented. :)

    Cheers ...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you so much for the link. There is a light at the end of the tunnel. Thanks again.

      Delete
  41. http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2015/06/17/visa-bulletin-updates-from-mr-charles-oppenheim-june-2015/?utm_source=Capitol+Immigration+Law+Group+Newsletter&utm_campaign=9736354119-Weekly_Newsletter_Jun_18_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1074141ca5-9736354119-390869517&mc_cid=9736354119&mc_eid=1fa513d735

    "EB-2/EB-3 India

    As a result of the significant forward movement in EB-2 India earlier this year, additional forward movement for the next few months is unlikely mainly due to EB-3 to EB-2 upgrades. Additionally, because demand for EB-2 ROW has more than doubled unexpectedly over the past few months, EB-2 India cut-off date had to be held steady in the July 2015 Visa Bulletin. Unless there is a significant decline in EB-2 ROW demand, Mr. Oppenheim does not anticipate any forward movement in EB-2 India for the rest of this fiscal year (September 30).

    EB-3 India is expected to continue to advance by one to two weeks per month. This has been the recent trend over the past several months."

    *********************
    This is really depressing :((. Ambals do you have any thoughts on if the dates stand any chance of movement (to end of Dec 2008) beginning of the fiscal year FY2016/Oct-Nov or will they usually wait a few months?

    ReplyDelete
  42. Hi,

    My priority date is 2012 EB2-I.

    When should I expect to have my GC ??

    Thanks,

    ReplyDelete
  43. around PD+6-7 years now. we all hope and pray its sooner.

    ReplyDelete
  44. For PD 2012 , it will be 2020 or more .
    Cannot be earlier unless law changes ( which is unlikely )

    ReplyDelete
  45. EB2 India Jan 10, 2010. I thought EAD will come this year. Disappointed completely.

    ReplyDelete
  46. my PD is Jul 2012-India. When do I hope it to be current? its already been ~3 years and things are so disappointing for this seems an endless wait.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Assuming that there is no change in law .. ( I think it is very unlikely that law will change anyways )
      1. If you are EB3 India at July 2012 as PD , you are looking at 20 plus years wait .
      2. If you are EB2 India with July 2012 as PD , expect 2019 earliest if you are lucky otherwise realistically 2022 or so .
      Do not complain of endless wait . You are waiting for 3 years . There are people here who are waiting much longer .

      Delete
    2. lol at wait time.. i have been waiting 11 years already..

      Delete
  47. Hi,
    Hope everyone is doing wel.

    I-485 details:
    Priority Date -June 30, 2008
    Receipt Date -July 01, 2014
    Notice Date -July 03, 2014
    Texas Service Center
    I hope I get through this time (fingers really crossed).

    EB3 to EB2 in 2012. Got my EAD last year and got current again this time. When do you think I should see a change in status update on USCIS case tracker? It's been 22 days and I don't see any change yet. Any insights?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Also, my medicals was done June Last year. This worries me. Any suggestion is greatly appreciated.

      Delete
    2. you need to see a doctor for anxiety disorder and not this forum.

      Delete
    3. Thanks, I will do it sometime soon, but do you or anyone have an insight because the doctor cannot answer questions to immigration matters? ;). How long should I wait to raise a service request or talk to a congressman.

      Delete
    4. Also, 7 years of wait, stagnant career (because of no GC yet), finishing up MBA next month, other aspirations, crucial timing all of them definitely contributed to disorders stemming from working hard and staying positive no matter what! Do you have a good doctor who is knowledgeable in both fields?...lol

      Delete
  48. EB2 India May 02 2011? when will it be for EAD?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2017/2018 to get current. Current trend is about 6 years or more from what I have read on this forum.

      Delete
  49. Ambals..

    any new update regarding Eb2 I ?

    ReplyDelete
  50. Going to be current for everyone by next month.Start preparing for celebrations.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ur are really funny dude ... Good that u din't post ur name ...

      Delete
  51. Then we get cases like these!!!..
    http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1569219297/greened-filed-in-april-2015-approved-6-24-nsc-eb1c
    Heartiest Congrats but at the same time... adds to our frustration.
    EB1-C!!!!.. seriously

    ReplyDelete
  52. Don't you guys think we should raise our voice by doing something to end this endless wait? I am sure there are so many innovative people who read this blog. Let's fight for our rights....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do you think politicians don't know about the broken immigration system ?? They know it very well .. Either they are refusing to act or unable to act ... Raising your voice/ hands/ legs, nothing is gonna change ... Hope POTUS goes ahead with I140 EAD and gets us all an EAD (atleast) next year ...

      Delete
  53. Guys, Govt needs money. So they will make all current this year. They want filing money and EAD renew money. So......get ready.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This can be a joke of the year!!

      Delete
    2. EAD renewal and filing doesnot need any money... its free. only attorney fees .

      Delete
    3. What are you smoking? ;)

      Delete
    4. Yes, there bread n butter will stop without our filing/renew money.

      Delete
    5. Yes...they are more smart than we think... but, I hope they will understand our situation and will come out with some positive outcome...

      However, loved your positive approach and really hoping to have it happen

      Delete
  54. My prediction is that the we will get no spillover so around 2800 visas for EB2 which we normally get for a fiscal year. If everyone has a spouse it means 1400 visas ,which means technically based on inventory report from Jan 2015 the date should go to around 12/31/2008.

    Now what spillover we get for EB2 just depends obviously it will not be 0. EB2 has got approximately 15k for the last 3,4 years, even if the we consider EBROW and porting to be 50% more we may get 7k in spillover...worst case scenario another 3.5K in spillover which puts us at 3.5k to 1.5k extra visas. So date could potentially go to Mar to May 2009.

    If USCIS cannot tell us EBROW and EBPorting numbers we can only guess.....like I did.

    ~JSK

    ReplyDelete
  55. 11 yrs for me too..on ead since 2007 ..wait cont.. :) cannt believe it!

    one should just move on and enjoy with friends and family. one day u will see bright day and then again will wait for next one USC..:)

    ReplyDelete
  56. What is your prediction for priority date - june 2009?

    ReplyDelete
  57. What is your prediction for eb2 priority date - june 2009?

    ReplyDelete
  58. Probably early 2017

    ReplyDelete
  59. That's crazy.... If priority date is June 2009 and you are expecting to get green card in 2017.. 8+ years is way too much...

    So, basically we come US on H-1B... when we freshly come on H-1B, we don't have that much knowledge about this process (as we are not even that much concern as we are not married or just married ) that we need to ask our employer to start GC process for us..so, count 2-3 years after we come in US... So, You come in 2007---> Priority date in EB2 is 2010 --> Get GC --2018... So, total 11+ years to get GC is totally crazy....

    I came in here in 2007, my PD is 2010... So, if trend will continue this way.... I am not expecting GC until 2018-2019.... that's really crazy... My cousin went Australiya in 2009 and he is already having PR , he settled down his own business, owns house there.... So, where am I? Bound in backlog!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Correction - not "we" you come to US on H1B. There are many of us who can be called "we" who came on F1 Visas... to study for either Bachelors or masters or PHD - Struggle hard to get scholarships, assistantships, or on campus jobs to survive. Then we wake up nights after nights to publish papers, finish our Thesis dissertation and yeah did I mention we also publish a thesis book which gets placed in the library (So proud.. I went back to my university this spring and found my book)... anyways, and then we get placed again in the H1-B loop (Struggle for OPT and then Struggle to find a job that would sponsor H1B - unless you go to Fraud Desi IT consultants) and then comes the Green card loop for which you are worried.. my friend!!...

      You came in 2007 and have a PD of 2010...
      I am here since 2003 and my PD is 2009!!...

      Be happy where you are; be happy that you never had to struggle in US... , and yes...grass is always greener on the other side.

      Delete
    2. Well... I said "we" was not for all H-1B community. "We" was for me and my spouse....Read properly, I said my story... Grow up dude!

      Also, whatever struggle you did here to study, I did in India to earn my master degree..I also woke up nights to get my master degree... I also struggled to get industrial project, worked in company in India as part of last semester without any pay, wrote 400 pages book for that project to clear final semester.... So, don't think that they just give you degree without any hard work or qualification from any reputed university in India....


      Not just me, everyone here is frustrated with this backlog....we are not even able to predict when we will get greencard and when will start setteling down... So, I was just comparing this to other country system... Also, I never though to come here and it was not even my dream... But, it's just destiny that I came here... And now, it is very very difficult to go back and start from zero again in my home country. And if situation will always be like this, it doesn't look like backlog will clear even in next 20 years and I cannot live another 20 years like these many limitations. So, if I have to go back home country tomorrow, I will go back today....


      Grow up dude! Do not show your smartness here, every one is smart and educated here and everyone worked hard to get their degrees and just because of their smartness, they got H-1B visa....

      Delete
    3. I think comparing a Master's degree from India and the US is ridiculous. A lot of H1B holders don't have any "smartness" and are in the US after faking their experience and resumes - the same way they got their diploma after cheating in exams, labs and projects.

      Delete
    4. I can understand how you feel but there are a number of problems with your rant.

      1. You took a calculated risk to come to the US, and despite all the green card nonsense, it's still quite a sensible risk. Your brother might be one out of 10 who is successful in Australia, but in general, Indians have found the xenophobic society problematic. On the other hand, the strong desi community here makes it easy to establish roots.

      2. Comparing yourself to your brother etc. is just an exercise in futility. People really need to be happy with what they have. The people who are working in the US even without the green card are in the top 10% globally income and wealth wise. Learn to appreciate good things in life.

      3. Having said all this, the green card wait sucks. But consider that your spouse is now eligible for an EAD, which we did not have back in the day. Also consider that H1B holders themselves might get I140 EAD and some job mobility. If you don't have the overhead of stamping the H1B visa, it becomes very easy to travel. Life in general will ease with some of these changes even without the green card.

      In the 1990s, the H1B visa could not be extended beyond 6 years, so if you didn't get a GC, you were out of luck. AC21 changed all of that, and in fact, the ability to extend H1B indefinitely is what created the long wait.

      The easier it becomes for you to stay, the longer the wait will be because more people will compete.

      Just chill and take it easy.

      Delete
    5. I got my masters degree from the US too (a top 10 college in Electrical Engineering). If you had an assistantship, getting the masters was a piece of cake. There were 0 costs involved, you got to involve the life of a US as a bachelor, and got paid for it! I fooled around in my masters, also published papers (got to go to Australia, Spain and Hawaii to present them), and also wrote a "thesis book". It's all a waste. No one cares or reads what you publish. The university system forces you to do it because the professors have to justify their tenure and always chase funding.

      Masters in the US is not that hard to get - not even from the top competitive schools like Berkley and Stanford. I would not necessarily look down on someone who got the masters from India.

      In the IT, getting the right break in the right technology is important. Curse Indian IT giants all you want, but the fact is that they own the consulting side and they have legions of people trained in almost any cutting edge technology. In the hindsight, getting the right break in the right IT consulting company back in India could have been better for my career. Whatever knowledge I obtained in my Masters has gone to dust. I learn to code and do it on the right things, and if I had done it sooner, I would have been that much ahead in my career.

      My $0.02.

      Delete
    6. for your US degrees you already got awarded with 20% h1b quota.. getting h1b for general quota was a nightmare.. remember those days when u have to win lottery to get in here.. so dont compare apple to orange.. struggle is almost same on both side.

      Delete
    7. Thank you guys! You said what I wanted to say!

      Dude, I am not comparing education of any country. It is not education, it is student who are smart or dumb... But.... I am just wondering , are you proud of the place from where you are from? You.... yourself putting your place (where you born and brough up ) down.. That's really really shameful. Cheating happens, everywhere, but with cheating.. you can only pass the exam, cannot get good score or will not be successful in your carrier with cheating. People who did masters from India are not dumb at all..... Heard of IIM? No, because people like you only can study by spending good amount of money from parent's help... For, IIM, you actually have to be smart... Just chill man... Students from India who cannot afford to come US for doing masters are not dumb at all.... And man....people on H-1B are not dumb either... they struggle and get good job with so many limitations... I have seen U.S. citizens (of course Indian) having computer science degree in hand with no limitation for looking for job in their field are working in walmart.... just chill man ,,and come on back on earth...

      Delete
  60. i think my case is the worst then. in this country from 2003. finished 2 MS+PhD. PD in EB2-I is Jan 2013.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. how come u r in eb2 with PHD degree?

      Delete
  61. do you think all phds are eb2? no it depends a lot upon your stream of research. less citations which makes for eb2.

    ReplyDelete
  62. We ignored the clue If you look closely at the Jan 2015 Pending 485 there is some clue unlike the previous 4-5 years there is an unusal huge EB2 pending for the preceeding 2 yrs(13/14) for countries other than India/Chi/mex/Phi. It is ~16 k this Jan 2015 compared to 6400 in Jan 2014 13 k in 2013 and 11 k in 2011 and 7 k in 2010. I bet may be Desi's just crossed the border got Canadian PR and they are applying using EB2 now with candian passports.


    It is all pervasive Indian folks.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Endless wait ! Zero hopes with my Oct 2010 PD in EB2 to dream about even an EAD. Life goes on and dreams will fade away as a few guys in DOL and USCIS decide my destiny. Biggest mistake coming here 12 years back and getting myself two masters degrees during this time. Should have stayed in India or went for higher education to some other country where immigrants are given better rights and pathways to naturalize. I have a decent job and life here but having limited freedom to move jobs, start a business or even travel is not the way to live life.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Completely agree... Feeling same at the moment that this is my biggest mistake coming here.. my PD is Sep 2010 and I am frustrated the same way you are...

      Delete
  64. another year :) !!!

    http://www.murthy.com/2015/06/26/visa-bulletin-analysis-predictions-and-trends-eb2-india-stalls/

    EB2 India is not expected to advance beyond the current cutoff date of October 1, 2008 during FY15. The reason for this is that demand in the EB2 worldwide category more than doubled in the past few months. Therefore, the extra visa numbers expected to be available to EB2 India did not materialize. EB2 India advancement cannot occur this fiscal year, which ends on September 30, 2015, unless there is a significant drop in EB2 worldwide demand.

    ReplyDelete
  65. Folks, My PD is Sept 2009 and I've been waiting to file I-485, Do you guys think that we can appeal in court to get atleast EAD & AP since USCIS has anyways accepted an applications till 2010. There is no point keeping 2009 people on wait while 2010 people already have a EAD in hand. I would appreciate any serious thoughts on it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. why did u not apply when there was time

      Delete
  66. Looks like after 2011 May ( PD ) it will be at least 12 years of wait for EB2-I.
    Till 2011 May ( PD ) will be 9 years of wait.
    And that is for EAD.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thats correct.
      During 2012, 2013 era when Desis' again strated flooding GC line, both EB2 ROW and EB2-I, EB3-I and EB1 got over flooded.

      God bless 2012,2013 and on wards...........

      Delete
  67. we are like bunch of gladiators here , away from frnds/family and fighting a daily battle out there and getting tough everyday knowing any day it can be it.. while on the other side awaiting freedom and desire to break free from slavery..
    event this blogs will ask if i am a robot.. oh well may be i am the robot and living a monotonous life...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My name is Desi Consultant , commander of Production Support and loyal servant to the TRUE DESI Owner . Father to a U.S. Born son, husband to a frustrated wife. And I will have my vengeance, in this life or the next.

      Delete
    2. ha ha good going mate.. any one else got something?

      Delete
    3. Gladiators ? Awaiting freedom ?? Who is stopping you from going back ? You want a Luxurious car, an awesome villa and thats why you are here .. You are not here to make your ends meet ...

      Don't crib and be thankful to what you have ..

      Delete
    4. geez, EXACTLY! go back to India if you think you have it so bad..

      Delete
    5. This dude at 10:05 AM sounds like the one whom you feel like slapping crossing your way.

      Delete
    6. thats correct the dude at 10:05 am .. some dude live and smoke shit and live in dream land..

      Delete
  68. Latest news :-

    06/25/2015: Liberia/Guinea/Sierra Leon TPS Registration Deadline Extended from 05/20/2015 to 08/18/2015

    ReplyDelete
  69. http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i140/1500351199/obama-eo-ead-for-approved-i-140/page/359

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. if this really happens.. it will be a game changer for US immigration and business looking for skilled foreign folks.

      Delete
  70. Hi Friends.On 6/29 we get a USCIS that your case of I-485 is suspended (me and my wife) since we need more informations...(RFE). On 6/30 i get a USCIS mail of case status UPDATE that on 6/30 a new card is ordered (Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production).Is it GC itself? Can anyone comment.No idea why they would send this message after 1 day of RFE message. My PD is 6/2008.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Just now got a welcome notice mailed update from USCIS.
    Looks like in these 11 yrs i have lost my sense to accept some good news. Good luck friends.Hope you all get it soon too.Thanks Ambal.

    ReplyDelete
  72. From oh law firm

    It is very interesting that there were massive filing of EB-1 in 2014, resulting in total of 26,849 EB-1 investories as of April 1, 2015! This was particularly noticeable in 2014 when 17,629 EB-1 priority date cases filed in a single year. Most of these could be EB-1Cs.

    ReplyDelete
  73. http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_of_04-01-2015.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  74. based on this for Eb2:
    2009 10600
    2010 6400
    2011 710
    2012 1039
    2013 6348

    Looks like 2011 and '12 were the lowest. Arent dates supposed to move faster for these PDs?

    ReplyDelete
  75. Can some one analyze the inventory ?? Amblas Can you please put your comments after analyzing

    ReplyDelete
  76. disappointed to notice EB2 India's inventory is not yet relased. I can see EB1 category is getting slammed in the first few months of 2015. I can only assume that this is what's slowing the EB2 India down because there could be no more spillovers left. I am not Positive anyway. I will leave this to experts.

    ReplyDelete
  77. We have to consider porting issue . Plus spillover from EB1 and EB2 ROW is minimal due to high demand .
    Don't kill yourself overthinking . Just enjoy life .

    ReplyDelete
  78. wont the spillovers (whatever we get) go to EB1 category which now has massive demand? Does that mean EB2I will see slower movement?

    ReplyDelete
  79. Based on the inventory can you suggest when my dates will b current?. Eb2 I Dec 2008

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hard to tell really. Google charles oppenheim posts. He says this is it for this year. But don't lose your hopes. If the demand decreases from worldwide, your date could be next. If not this year, you are inline next year.

      Delete
  80. I would say for Dec2008 , it would by around early 2016

    ReplyDelete
  81. https://www.change.org/p/u-s-department-of-homeland-security-give-the-indian-h-1b-professionals-a-chance-to-live-the-american-dream

    ReplyDelete
  82. Inventory Data is just out.

    ReplyDelete
  83. Just for the sack of having a comment.

    ReplyDelete
  84. just for the sack. oh my gawd.

    ReplyDelete
  85. Can somebody please enlighten?
    based on this for Eb2:
    2009 10600
    2010 6400
    2011 710
    2012 1039
    2013 6348

    2011 and '12 were the lowest. Shouldn't dates move faster for these PDs?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wrong.

      The numbers you are citing in 2011, 12, and 13 do not have any EB2I numbers at all. They belong to the rest of the world. Unfortunately, the USCIS did not break down the inventory data per country. They used to do it in the past, but this time, they aggregated the data.

      No one from EB2I with PD >= May 1, 2010 has ever sent in their 485s. Not to scare you, but typically, EB2I easily generates some 25K demand numbers EACH year. So approximately, 100-120K EB2I 485 applications have never been filed, and this number continues to grow every day.

      EB2I is guaranteed only 3K numbers each year. These numbers are largely consumed by the pending upgrade demand. The pending upgrade demand is another unknown and is possibly increasing every day too.

      The dates are going to crawl...literally. If nothing changes, EB2I will achieve a real movement of at most 3-4 months every year, and in all forms and respects, it will resemble EB3I. Get ready for 1 week movement every month just like EB3I.

      Delete
  86. Ambala any prority date movemen prediction after 485 data release.

    ReplyDelete
  87. tel laga ke nach

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ke pag ghunghroo bandh meera nachi thi

      Delete
    2. nachi thi ki leti thi.. khi khi

      Delete
  88. IV will announce something big soon !!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Get ready with your papers..........

      Delete
    2. After all the things, do you guys still believe in IV?

      Delete
    3. IV Gaya Bhad mein....

      Delete
    4. Guys, what is there to believe in IV or not. It is just a body of volunteers trying to get something done. It is not a profit making organization. So they share what they know, sometimes things go for a toss like last time.

      Delete
  89. Guys, wait for coming Monday for a BIG announcement from @@@@@.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. wtf dude.. another KLPD.

      Delete
    2. Guys, If you care to give a news, why can't you provide links for the readers. There is just too much speculation going on around already in immigration community.

      Delete
    3. There is no news, he just had a couple of bottles of beer.

      Delete
    4. Here is the news :-

      07/08/2015: Rule-Making Agenda for Modernization of Employment-Based Immigration System

      Record reflects that the Obama Administration has been following the rule-making agenda for administrative immigration reforms which are published in the Spring 2016 Rule-Makiing Agenda. As scheduled, USCIS published final rule for the wage methodology for H-2B program in the form of a final rule recently. Today, 07/08/2015, USCIS submitted its "proposed" rule for provisional unlawful presence waivers of inadmissibility as schedule for July 2015 in the agenda. It is thus anticipated that the USCIS and DOL will initiate or complete its rule-making process for modernization of employment-based immigration system in the following sequence:
      August 2015: Submit to OMB a proposed rule for significant public benefit parole for entrepreneurs
      October 2015: Submit to OMB a proposed rule for modernization of employment-based immigration system including so-called pre-registration of adjustment application for those with the approved I-140 petition
      December 2015: DOL will submit a proposed rule to modernize PERM program including premium processing of PERM applications
      January 2016: Release of final rule and implementation of reform of H-1B1, Cw-1, and E-3 nonimmigrant programs and reform of EB-1B outstanding researcher or teacher immigration program.
      We will keep track of these rule-making agenda for the employment-based immigration reform.

      Delete
    5. Long way to go :-

      Since proposed rule making agenda is set at October 2015, it will take a while before a final rule is completed, published, and implemented. Our site followers may remember our earlier posting on the rule-making steps, beginning from (1) draft of proposed rule; (2) submission of the draft to the White House OMB for review and approval; (3) OMB review and approval from 30 to 90 days or longer; (4) Release of the approved proposed rule in the federal register from 30 days to 90 days for public comment; (5) Review and study of public comments by the bill sponsor with no fixed deadline; (6) Draft of interim final or final rule with no fixed deadline; (7) Submission of the draft of final rule to the OMB for review and approval without fixed deadline; (8) Completion of OMB review within 30 to 90 days and approval; (9) Publishing in the federal register the approved final rule in the federal register: and (10) Implementation of the final rule on effective date which is fixed in the final rule. Only "binding" and enforcement rule is an interim final or final rule. Readers can thus imagine what kind of timeline they have to see the implementation of the binding final rule of EB Immigration Modernization Rule.
      One good news is that the I-140 EAD or Preregistration plan will indeed move into the rule-making process, even though they will have to keep patience to see this final rule at the end of the rule-making tunnel and light in the next year. Congratulations to the approved I-140 waiter for the propects for EB-485 pre-registration opportunities with accompanying EAD and Travel Documents as well as opportunities to change employment without its effect on the ongoing green card proceeding just as what they for their colleagues who have filed I-485 applications when their priority dates became current and changing employers and go into the free labor market.

      Delete
  90. with consulting companies filing eb1 left and right.. and EB3 mass porting in progress.. EB2 is pretty much useless and hopeless now.. its just a hook to keep your h1b extension on..

    ReplyDelete
  91. http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i140/1500351199/obama-eo-ead-for-approved-i-140/page/366

    ReplyDelete
  92. Thank God.
    I will be in EB1

    ReplyDelete
  93. Aug visa bulletin is out. No changes for EB2 I.

    ReplyDelete
  94. Ambal,

    August visa Bulletin released today.

    http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-august-2015.html

    ReplyDelete
  95. Bulletin baba is out...

    ReplyDelete
  96. Bulletin baba is out..
    Please don't crowd to get darshan. Kindly form a single line and wait for your chance to receive darshan.

    Bulletin baba ki jai ho!!

    ReplyDelete
  97. August Bulletin was just released now.
    China is moving forward. I don't think this factor alone should be considered as good news. Accept the facts at least now!
    EB2 India is Stuck for this year! Live and Prosper!


    ReplyDelete