Wednesday, December 9, 2015

January 2016 Visa Bulletin and Analysis

January 2016 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today.

EB2:

Cut-off dates for EB2 India moved from 01 JUN 07 to 01 FEB 08. EB2 China stayed at
 01 FEB 12. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is the EB2 India is moving forward.

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 22 APR 04 to 15 MAY 04. EB3 China moved from 15 APR 12 to 01 JUL 12. EB3 Philippines moved from 01 AUG 07 to 01 NOV 07. For all other countries the date moved from 01 SEP 15 to 01 OCT 15.

Good news is there is forward movement for all countries.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was released in October. For EB2 India, there are 18,814 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. For EB3 India, it is 20,207 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date.


What is new ?:

From October visa bulletin, they introduced two different dates. The above dates you see reflect the cut-off date for getting Green Card. They have introduced a new chart of dates. If your priority date is before the cut-off date, then you can apply for I-485, EAD and AP.

More information is here  -- http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo#New Visa

EB2:

Adjustment of Status (AOS) filing cut off date for EB2 India is 01 JUL 09
. For, EB2 China it is 01 JAN 13. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

EB3:


Adjustment of Status (AOS) filing cut off date for EB3 India is 01 JUL 05. For, EB3 China it is 01 OCT 13; For EB3 Philippines it is 01 JAN 10. For all other countries it is 01 JAN 16.

After this, they recently introduced another complexity to this whole puzzle. Now, you see this date on DOS visa bulletin and then, you have to go verify if the same chart is applicable or not on USCIS website. USCIS will determine according to its inventory, whether they want to introduce a new chart. That info can be filed here -- http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo 

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:

I am hoping EB3 India will keep moving forward 2 to 3 weeks, every visa bulletin.

For EB2 India:

What will happen will depends on DOS Strategy. From the looks of it, they are keeping the AOS date as it is and moving the Green Card date slowly forward. It will change based on EB3 to EB2 conversion.


If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:


The above links are for reference only. Please check with your lawyer and check the USCIS website for official latest list.

Final Notes:


I am still trying to wrap my head around why DOS has to introduce this chart and then USCIS has to decide whether this one or new one. Why not USCIS release it directly ? I don't have an answer.

This fiscal year has been very dramatic. From the time DOS introduced the new chart, with very high numbers and then retrogress back, even before October. Then, they decided, DOS will introduce it and USCIS will decide and introduce another chart. I am expecting more to come as they try new things to implement President's Executive Order. We will keep a watch.

For all EB2, EB3 India folks -- 
Unfortunately, if we want to be here, we all have to go through it. Yes, it is a tough long frustrating journey. Hang in there. It will get over soon.


Links:

You can see the official January 2016 Visa Bulletin here -http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-january-2016.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

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258 comments:

  1. Yes, good to see the service back. Thanks Ambals!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks Ambals for coming back and providing us the moral support needed .

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  3. Good to see you back Ambals. Please keep this running

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thanks for coming back! Missed you!

    ReplyDelete
  5. What is the point of your blog I do not understand. The information you provided is merely a text version of what is available in Visa Bulletin. I just wanted to say it before I stop coming to this blog. What did I gain reading your blog is what I am trying to wrap my head around. Sorry if I hurt your feeling but this is what I honestly think. Please add more details, projections, analysis if you want more readers for your blog.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Exactly. I followed Ambals blogs for a while but since few months (close to a year actually) all this blog states is a text version of Visa Bulletin. Ambals, if you are bored and do not know how to continue this blog, write something else (just a suggestion)...

      Delete
    2. Be grateful for what others do. I missed their blogs. There was much information provided by them. Do you find the filling details, medicals, etc together in any site. If you think you can find in other multiple site, stop visiting this site but don't discourage them. Previously, the comments were so informative too till mid of this year and later some started commenting non-sense that I stopped reading comments. It's a request to maintain dignity and encourage free service provided. If you cannot then let others like me. Thanks ....

      Delete
    3. we Indians are quick in giving suggestions, show some respect and love sometimes, just cribbing like a 3 year old and poking your nose in everything will not solve anything, if you dont like there blogs - please dont bring your stinking ass here, value your time and respect others

      Delete
    4. Words like Stinking ass and respect do not seem to go together, my dear Indian. Criticism is needed to make this blog useful to all. Whats wrong with suggesting Ambals to do more analysis and write something useful for the readers? Copying information from Visa Bulletin isn't going to help. Telling me not to visit the blog is neither a solution nor your business unless you are one of the blog writers...

      Delete
    5. The message is simple, EB-2 India will wait for a greencard for a long long time, but the jumping dates will keep all entertained ;-)

      Delete
  6. Glad you are back Ambals! Do you think date of filing will move forward any soon?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. May be the last quarter. I think they are still trying to figure out the whole date of filing. They might try few different scenarios over the months.

      Delete
  7. to Anon @7:22: Learn to be grateful

    ReplyDelete
  8. what is this blog ? what analysis has been made ?

    ReplyDelete
  9. How do we read the pending inventory? What does the inventory number mean? Do I need to compare it against some other number? Sorry, can you please explain?
    Its just that, my PD is Sept 2011 and I have lost that 140 due to job loss and new job. Now I am trying to decide should I file for EB1A (only little chance for me) or should I file EB2-NIW (better chance than EB1A) OR both and spend a fortune.
    Seems like understanding the pending inventory is key to understanding the progress of cut-off date. Please explain if you can.
    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  10. For people with PD dates in April to June 2009, I expect Green cards to be give in next 6 to 8 months. I see each year around 18k or so GC's are given to EB2I. With the inventory at hand, I think the entire 2008 and half of 09 can clear even with heavy porting from EB3. Ambals, what do you think ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rampy, if the 18k number is till May 2010, I see entire 2008 and 2009 to get GCs this fiscal year, till Oct 1, 2016. Also, by then, hopefully all I-140 approved folks will get EAD either based on the Date of Filing or the I-140 EAD rule that may come out in May 2016.

      Thanks

      Delete
    2. How do you know that this ruling is supposed to come out in May 2016?

      Delete
    3. @Rampy Sri - Totally depends on Spillover and porting. I expected that to happen last year. You know what happened :)

      Delete
  11. it is not getting over soon

    ReplyDelete
  12. Checking the EB2I more closely, the inventory till 2009 year end is only 14k. Unless something changes drastically, I hope that will clear.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The number of EB3 from 2004 to 2008 will be in 30K+ range, so with expected porting it is going to be a tough battle for EB2 to plough through 2009. Its a sad story that EB2 that is suppose to be a faster path is getting squeezed from porters on one side and the unethical consulting companies filing EB1 on the other side. Neither sides are going to give up.

      Delete
    2. EB3 poting is hurting but in my opinion it is really not that easy to port from EB3 to EB2, otherwise all EB3 upto 2010 would have ported to EB2 and we may not see anyone in EB3, because techinally to apply on EB2 you need Grad + 5 Years of exp. and being in wait they gain that 5 years exp. So, blaming and asking to stop EB3 porting is not really a solution to solve. but may be Eb1c.

      Personally i am not in EB3, and having PD in Mid-2011.

      Delete
  13. If you haven't signed this petition , please do. At the minimum we can take a shot at trying to stop the crooks.
    http://www.petition2congress.com/6398/stop-eb1-c-abuse-fraudulent-filing/

    ReplyDelete
  14. How much does porting take away every year from EB2I ? I would assume not more than 5k. There is no escape from this mess for next decade. I hope by next year USCIS will start issuing EADs for I-140 holders.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes typical porting would be around 5-7K but the fact is each EB based country has an approximate quota of 2800 GC's. Between Jan and OCt 2015, EB2 India queue drained by 2000 whereas EB3 drained by 7000+. So essentially all the EB2 quota are essentially going towards porters while we get no spillover from Eb1.
      There are 2 possibilities. We wait till Eb3 and Eb2 queues close in or the government wakes up to the consulting companies that hand out GC's like Halloween Candies.

      Delete
  15. I am trying to estimate when will be my priority date ( EB3 Jan/11) be the current one. Please let me know if the calculation below sounds right:

    There are curretnly ~20K application waiting till 09/07. Since there is no data available for India for half of 2007 and 2008/09/10 , I am blindly picking up the data from the "All employment based for all the countries" for 2007/2008/09/10 and add that to this the India data.
    http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I_485_Pending_Inventory_10202015.pdf

    total = 20207 - 2720 + 3672 + 1249 + 1158 + 785 = 24351. (removing India 2007 and adding all world 2007)

    Can I assume this is the final number of Green card that needs allocation before my case? Do I need to multiple 24351 by lets say 2.2 to take care of families?

    The speed of GC in each categories is given at following:
    http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2014/01/eb-and-fb-green-cards-alloted-in-fiscal.html

    EB2 India 2,802 17,193
    EB3 India 2,802 7,816

    Assuming no porting , and no family change it would take 24351/7800 ~3.12 years?
    Assuming no porting and 2.2 ratio for family = 2.2 *24351 / 7800 = 6.87 years?
    Assuming porting of 5k and 2.2 ratio for family = 2.2 *24351 / 13000 = 4.12 year?

    I am not sure if it is correct otherwise why has it been so slow? ( Big back log from 2003 or 2004).

    I have a choice to move to EB2 and I will probably do as it seems this could actually make it available in a year ? ( but if we add 2.2 factor it mght take 2 year as well?)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think in the i485 pending inventory shows the Number of APPLICATIONS not APPLICANTS. Just my opinion. It shows that how many people are in queue to get GC, and i believe when you file for 485 (EAD), there are separate Application for each applicant. Can someone correct this one for me, please?

      Delete
  16. Ah I actually realize my mistake. The I-485 inventory only counts the people who have gotten I-485. There is no way to know (?) how many applications are yet to go to I-485 in 2008/09/10. So my calculation is only valid till 2007. Though I assume # of applicants with PD in 2009/10 would be smaller.

    ReplyDelete
  17. I did some digging online and the EB3 porting is around 10k ( as it includes dependents and spouse). With that average, I think people with PD in early 2009 may get Green cards issued in 2016. Really depressing plight of affairs is your in EB2I line.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What about the analysis provided by Charles Oppenheim that EB2 India will move up to 8 months every month in FY2016. Jan 2016 already saw a 7-8 month forward movement for EB2 India. It's now on Feb 1, 2008, don't you think we may reach around Jan 2010 by May 2016 and then start porting?

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    2. Some blogs mentioned that it will move 6-8 months for the next 3 months. Which will bring to spring / summer 2009 and by that time porting will be ripe and everything will retrogress back to 2006. That is what is the expectation. We will know more after this months briefing which should come out in a week or so. Having hopes and being dashed is the norm for EB2.

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    3. In the grand scheme of things, that doesn't make too much sense, because in FY2015, we saw EB2India to up till summer 2009 I think. If it's the same prediction for FY2016, what kind of a system is this?

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    4. Well unfortunately that is what is going on. No one can make sense , even the USCIS folks. Rewind back to 2012, priority dates were May 2010. Forward to 2016, Priority dates are Feb 2008!! People who know to game the system get what they want and those who abide by the law are treated to nonsense.

      Delete
  18. Two basic questions:
    1. What are the predictions for the "date of filing" for EB2 India (not final action) in the coming months?

    2. Where are we on the I-140/EAD ruling?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1. NULL
      2. Not going to happen in near future. May be by end of 2016.

      Delete
    2. Looks like the I-140/EAD rule is going to be more restrictive. "Further, the requirement that one must be in valid, work-authorized status and have a priority date that is within one year of the visa bulletin cutoff date in order to renew the EAD is perplexing." -- from -- http://www.murthy.com/2015/12/23/newsflash-draft-revisions-to-i-765-reveals-details-of-i-140-ead-proposal/

      Delete
  19. Hi all,

    I'm in some trouble. My PD is Jan 10, 2010 for EB2 India and I have an approved I-140 only. My company might sell by spring or summer 2016. I can get another job no problem, but I have to restart PERM and I-140 again with a new employer if I need to. Is the I-140-EAD rule in comments phase? When will it be implemented and will I benefit from it considering my situation in the next 5-6 months?

    Any advise from anyone will be greatly appreciated.

    Thank You

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would not put too much hope on the I-140 EAD rule happening any time soon (IMO). You have an approved I-140, so your I-140 will need amendment. This process will take 4-8 months as there is not Premium Processing allowed.

      Just hope and pray that filling dates touch Jan 10, 2010 in the upcoming 2 visa bulletins, then file 485 and request your company to continue to run your payroll for till 6 months are up, if your company sells. That way AC21 can be used. Best of Luck!!!!!

      Personally I would wait and see what happens and hope for delay in the sale of your employer. Finding a new job will result in guarantied 2 year delay. Believe me I have gone through that...

      Delete
    2. Looks like the I-140/EAD rule is going to be more restrictive. "Further, the requirement that one must be in valid, work-authorized status and have a priority date that is within one year of the visa bulletin cutoff date in order to renew the EAD is perplexing." -- from -- http://www.murthy.com/2015/12/23/newsflash-draft-revisions-to-i-765-reveals-details-of-i-140-ead-proposal/

      Delete
  20. I have changed jobs twice and done this crap of reapplying for PERM under Eb2. Just focus on your career. If you are in EB2, you should be able to make a case to keep your PD intact. Most of us want career progression and change but its not going to be a easy decision to change jobs. Even if you get I-140 EAD, I am sure under AC-21 you would have to evidence that's its the same or similar job. My advise is to wait but if you have a solid offer with pay hike, take it as good jobs don't come at the time when you need them

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks. So basically, most people with PD for EB2-India 2009 and beyond who have never filed I-485, are all effffd?

      Delete
    2. correct..its not over..we will be efffd even more in upcoming year. 2017 maybe the year for > Jun 2009 EB2 filers to receive a gc

      Delete
  21. Yaay...Ambals is Back !!

    ReplyDelete
  22. Ambals, you have shared format for most commonly required affidavits. Do you know if I need one for my case (details below):
    My wife who is going to file as dependent on my 485 has her mother's name incorrectly spelled on passport vs correct one on her birth certificate. There is an extra "a" added to my mother-in-law's name in my wife's passport.
    Do I need any affidavit or go with correctly spelled name on my spouse's birth certificate.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes. It is better to have affidavit.

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    2. what is the format of the affidavit?

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    3. You can try this -- http://ambals.blogspot.com/2013/06/affidavit-of-birth-along-with-i-485.html -- but is best to confirm with the immigration lawyer who will file your I-485.

      Delete
  23. Hooray! OMB Approved I-140 EAD/Portability Proposed Rule

    ReplyDelete
  24. Well its still 4-6 months away before anyone can reap any benefits. No one knows the details on eligibility. Fingers crossed!!

    ReplyDelete
  25. People posted link on trackitt regarding I-140 EAD Portability. It says people under compelling circumstances based on discretion of DHS would be provided EAD. Not of any help at all.

    ReplyDelete
  26. I saw some links on Trackitt regarding the I -140 EAD/Portability Rule. It says "compelling circumstances discretion to DHS" will be provided EAD. Not of any help.

    ReplyDelete
  27. There are two troublesome conditions for EAD in this proposed rule: (1) Requirement of proof of "compelling reasons" and (2) For EAD extensions, priority date is within one-year of the Visa Bulletin cut-off date. It thus appears that the proposed rule which was just approved for I-140 portability/EAD reform indirectly demands the I-140 approved foreign workers to maintain nonimmigrant status rather than EAD when they change employment based on the new 140 portability under the forthcoming reform rule. The reform thus appears to give opportunity to change employment in a same or similar occupations before they file I-485 without losing the approved I-140 but will require that the foreign worker maintain the nonimmigrant status when they port to another employer. It appears this restriction may be intended to accommodate the pressures from the employers that oppose this reform.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Hello Ambals,
    I have a very simple question.
    From your initial post above:
    ------
    EB2:

    Adjustment of Status (AOS) filing cut off date for EB2 India is 01 JUL 09.
    ------

    My PD is Mar,2009. Recently,I got my EB2 PERM approval from my current/new employer. So, am I elligible to concurrently file my I-140/485 as per the current 485 dates chart?

    ReplyDelete
  29. You can file for I-140 but not for 485. As per USCIS for Jan 2016, you have to follow Final Action Dates chart For Employment-Based Preference Cases not the other filing date chart.

    http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

    ReplyDelete
  30. Folks:

    What do you think about the executive order that President Obama is proposing this year? Does it help EB2 India in any way.
    ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What executive orders in 2016? Were there any?

      Delete
    2. On 12/30/15, President Obama announced that he will issue an executive order for immigration. It was on all news channels.

      Delete
  31. With current predictions in visa bulletin , do you think EB2 india will move to 2011 by end of this year or mid of next year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are you talking about Final Action Date to reach 2011 or Date of Filing to reach 2011?

      Delete
  32. Hi Everyone, Happy New Year!

    My PD is Jan 10, 2010 on EB2-India. Not sure what to look for the first few months of this new year, three options ...

    1) the PD to become current based on a max of 8 months movement per month,

    or

    2) the EAD based on my I-140 which I have since about 5 years,

    or

    3) the "date of filing" to come for this PD of Jan 2010 so I can apply for the EAD for myself

    I’m stuck in an amazing limbo status based on my priority date of Jan 2010, can anyone help clear this out?

    Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1. Are you expecting GC because of expected 8 months movement? Are you serious? It would be a wishful thinking but in reality i think it may be hard to predict that entire 2009 filers will get GC by end of FY 2016.

      2. So, you still do not have EAD? Right?

      3. I was reading blogs in Ala or somewhere that, CO said that jumping the FAD to Jul 2011 was bad move but he said, that by the FY 2016 progress he forsee that the FAD will be Jul 2011, Something like that. If so yes you can apply EAD and i believe you can apply for EAD yourself.

      Thanks.

      Delete
    2. Great, thanks for your reply, I appreciate it. No, I have never applied I-485/EAD/AC-21 yet and quite frankly, that's the only thing I'm waiting for this year so I have job portability (stuck in my company since 4 years, of course many people stay and are stuck much longer).

      Because of that "bad move" that you're referring to, my lawyers had already prepared everything to file for EAD/AC-21 based on the July 2011 date, but Sept 25th, 2015 was a BAD BAD day (FAD went back to July 2009).

      So yes, I'm eagerly just waiting for the FA dates or the EAD/I-140 rule to be implemented so I can switch jobs (I'm in the SF bay area and I'm stuck with a 2011 salary and folks in my position are getting up to 30-50k more). In this amazing economy and job market, it's best to capitalize on a good compensation now.

      Thanks

      Delete
    3. May i ask you a question if you don't mind? I heard this from those many people who have PD prior to May 2010, have not EAD. Like you as an example having PD of Jan 2010 still not have EAD. What is the reason not to having EAD when dates were current for your PD? Reason i am asking because i want to be prepared when my PD comes close and i want to avoid all those mistakes to not to have EAD. Please share your experience so that we can learn from your lesson learned.

      I wish you get your EAD before end of this FY 2016.

      Thanks.

      Delete
    4. He may be right, his PD of Jan 2010 could be current or eligible for "Date of Filing".

      As per CO, he said that 8 months increment for Jan-Feb visa bulletin and later 4-6 months.
      And CO also said that "The Dates for Filing Visa Application in the revised Bulletin are where I estimated the Final Action Dates to likely be for each category in the next 8to 12 months." You can find this exact statement (Google it).

      So even if we are conservative on movement of dates, here is what i see and assume that there will be always a gap of 12 months between FAD and DOF. If there is no gap of atleat 1 year between these two dates then what is the point of having two dates. We can confirm this theory once Feb Visa bulletin published, Right now FAD is Feb 08 and DOF is Feb 09 exact gap of 1 year, if dates progress in Feb VB, Lets say FAD is Oct08 as per 8 months movement prediction from CO then the DOF must be progress to Oct09, Isn't it?

      So assuming all of these, here is what may happen.


      VB Month FAD DOF

      Jan16 Feb08 Feb09

      Feb16 Oct08 oct09

      Mar16 Feb09 Feb10

      Apr16 Jun09 Jun10

      May16 Oct09 Oct10

      Jun16 Feb10 Feb11

      Jul16 Jun10 Jun11

      Aug16 Oct10 Oct11

      Sep16 Feb11 Feb12

      So if we follow what CO said then recahing DOF for Jul11 will be somehwre in Jul-Aug'16.

      But, CO said that he is expecting DOF to reach FAD (likely to be) by End of this FY2016.
      FAD can not move upto Jul11 which was he expecting, its not possible at all and also he has no inventory after May10.
      Again if we get great spillover then whole 2009 + few 2010 filers can get GC this FY.

      Please, Stay Positive People.

      Delete
  33. Hello,

    I am following your blog for sometime now. A question - Do you know by any chance if the Inventory report from Oct 13th, 2015 is actually showing the EB2 wait numbers after applying the Spill Over before FY2016 started?

    Also, what is your opinion if All Applicants upto 2009 will get GC this year including SO that we get this year till Oct 2016.

    What is your opinion on "Dates for Filing" can move upto somewhere in 2012 after the quota opens for FY 2017 in Oct 2016.

    EB3 poting is hurting but in my opinion it is really not that easy to port from EB3 to EB2, otherwise all EB3 upto 2010 would have ported to EB2 and we may not see anyone in EB3, because techinally to apply on EB2 you need Grad + 5 Years of exp. and being in wait they gain that 5 years exp. So, blaming and asking to stop EB3 porting is not really a solution to solve.

    Personally i am not in EB3, and having PD in Mid-2011.

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Porting to EB2 is for granted in most cases. IF you have bachelors + 5 yrs + experience, big companies (GOOG,MSFT etc.) will hire them in Eb2. That's how most of the porting occurs (through job changes). That is a bargaining people do while changing jobs. Porting is not illegal and nobody is blaming them. Its just that people in EB2 get screwed by that which is the reason for venting. At the most EB2 should get spillover from EB1, but again the big consulting companies misuse them and EB2 again gets screwed. If you read the monthly VISA updates with AILA, you can see that porting is the one of the biggest wildcard that even DOS cannot estimate the impact and that is the primary reason EB2 is stuck.

      Delete
    2. Just to give another view of porting. Based on stats, 2/3rds of visa numbers are consumed by dependents. So even if 4 people port on average every day, the entire EB1 quota for the fiscal year will be finished (4*3(Dependents)*200days) =2400 visa numbers. Of course we are left with a generous 400 more visas for true EB2. The only way there can be improvement for EB2 is if the USCIS rejects 90% of L1 Blanket petitions there will be spillover from Eb1. Today the rejection rate stands only at 56%.

      Delete
    3. And on top that a guy/lady who was bachelor when his/her EB3 was filed 10 years back is now a married person having 2-3 kids.
      When he/she ports, its going to consume at least 4 numbers from EB2 for each EB3.

      And let me tell you, the 'so called lawsuit' was an eye wash.
      To make DHS more determined not to advance the filing date.
      Its like big brothers are joined and playing with your fate in a sugar coated way.

      Delete
  34. Friends, this may not be the time to ask for when will our priority date become current. The main issue for now is to get the correct version of draft (work portability for one whose I-140 is approved) which is currently open for comments.
    Many of us may not even know that this draft if becomes rule as is then it will not give you EAD (unrestricted work authorization except under certain circumstances). May be many lawyers, employers and anti-immigrant lobbyist working hard to modify this draft to create negative impact on immigrants and US Citizens.
    So not for others, but for yourself follow "immigration.org" along with this blog for more information. Probably out of your knowledge many people are working hard to update the comments on the draft.
    Spend some time out of your busy schedule to read 181 page long draft and send your comments to USCIS before February 29th (end of comment period).
    Many US citizens also do not know that current immigration policy is against them also, since immobility of immigrant worker makes immigrants more favorable to employers compare to US citizens.
    Also let us bring some issues from the draft (along with the page numbers)into this blog for discussion and raise comments to USCIS. Until comment period is open, we have all legal and authorized chance to update our comments. If we do put efforts reading this draft who else will? And at the end, we will have to accept any left over for our future. So let us use chance given by USCIS to send our pain in the form of comments.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, totally agree. Let's use this opportunity to shed some light on our struggle (perhaps tell our side of the story) with this backlog and lack of job mobility and try to get them to realize that our circumstances are indeed compelling enough to grant us an EAD.

      Delete
    2. In any case, using reverse engineering logic, looking at the last inventory report 8K applications (April 2009) pending for EB2-I and 10K (August 2007) applications pending for EB3-I. Theoretically the year quota for "I" is 2083 visas. so it will take 9 and 10 years respectively to get to April 2009 for EB2-I and August 2007 for EB3-I. That takes us to 2025 and 2026 respectively.

      Now we don't know how many applications will be filed past the above dates. Based on historical data let's say 800 a month. So if dates were to be current today

      EB2-I will received 68 months times 80 = 54,400 and EB3-I will receive 100 months times 80 = 80,000 applications for I-485. Assuming quota is still 2083, EB2-I will finish backlog in additional 27 years and EB3-I will finish back log in additional 40 years. SO EB2-I will take us to 2051 AD and EB3-i will take us to 2106 AD.

      What this essentially means is an application filed today PERM or I-140 will only process in 2051 AD for EB2 and 2106 AD for EB3. Which basically means never. I believe this is willful and intentional and is use and throw and abuse of people. Some people will die waiting, some will reach retirement but will have leave country since there is no status after retirement, some will leave voluntarily after being laid off because we believe in the rule of law. We won't stay undocumented. In all cases we have gained nothing.

      Delete
    3. People, instead (or) in addition to speculating about when your priority date would become current, lets act. Please post your comments on regulations.gov. Explain your problems and ask them to change proposed regulations.

      Delete
    4. How do you know people who are asking or speculation about when their PD become current are not posting comments about that new good-for-nothing rule which you are refering.
      How do you think comments are increasing day by day on that rule, how do you think the signatures for petitions are increasing.

      Don't try to be a Smart-A, Everyone is anxious and trying to pursue every avenue which can give peace of mind. Hope is what keep all alive.

      How do you think these anxious people should get peace of mind? By commenting on the good-for-nothing rule, Calling to Gov Officials, emailing, sending flowers, doing campaigns.

      Nothing has changed, Tell me a one single thing changed by doing that. I have done all of the above, what changed.

      I hate people when they lecture others what to do, everyone has their own way finding peace.

      Like people try to chill and enjoy in different ways, some goes to beach and party, some stay home watch movie/drink beer and some goes to State Park with family.

      So don't lecture.

      Delete
    5. Spoken like a real dumb a**. Evidently, you don't have the intelligence to understand even basic english. So, I'll attempt to help you understand what I said. I said, instead of or in addition to engaging in speculation, post your comments. I haven't discouraged anyone from participating in discussions on any forums. I understand the benefits of asking questions in these forums or having discussions. I was merely trying to urge people who already know about this proposal and the process, to post their comments and create awareness among other visitors to this forum.

      This proposal is a sick joke and therefore we must use this opportunity to express our feelings. I'm sure this is a better way to communicate than to send flowers or a bag of sh**.

      It makes me wonder if you have ever listened to a lecture or if you understand what it means. Just grow up (i.e.: mentally).

      Delete
    6. Oh God! So much hatred? You all should leave this blog if you can't fathom bad advise or just simply "comment" on current immigration affairs. Someone somewhere is paying a lot of attention to these affairs and reporting it "FREE" of cost (Ambal and other contributors). Respect that, or simply walk out.

      Delete
  35. So, here are the current situation and future predictions:-


    1. DHS is NOT going to move a Filing date a single day because a lawsuit is pending.
    If they intended not to move this date before ( may be some chance of moving forward someday) , then they have become determined now not to move.
    You go to court, everything stops until court decides.

    2. There are more -ve comments for i140/EAD with demand for investigation and ethics etc. That's going to bite the EB communities. DHS will close their eyes to all these comments and stop doing anything positive.

    EB3 porting is eating up all EB2 yearly quota ( 300 per month)
    There is no spill over from EB1 to EB2 as EB1 is moving towards a cut off date now.

    So,
    1. EB3 has to come close to EB2 so that porting will stop and EB2 will start moving a bit
    2. EB2 will not move beyond 2009 June for for coming 3-4 years until EB3 date equals EB2.

    So, good luck.

    I think we are trapped in honey trap.
    Lawsuits, investigation, and then EB3.

    ReplyDelete
  36. In any case, using reverse engineering logic, looking at the last inventory report 8K applications (April 2009) pending for EB2-I and 10K (August 2007) applications pending for EB3-I. Theoretically the year quota for "I" is 2083 visas. so it will take 9 and 10 years respectively to get to April 2009 for EB2-I and August 2007 for EB3-I. That takes us to 2025 and 2026 respectively.

    Now we don't know how many applications will be filed past the above dates. Based on historical data let's say 800 a month. So if dates were to be current today

    EB2-I will received 68 months times 80 = 54,400 and EB3-I will receive 100 months times 80 = 80,000 applications for I-485. Assuming quota is still 2083, EB2-I will finish backlog in additional 27 years and EB3-I will finish back log in additional 40 years. SO EB2-I will take us to 2051 AD and EB3-i will take us to 2106 AD.

    What this essentially means is an application filed today PERM or I-140 will only process in 2051 AD for EB2 and 2106 AD for EB3. Which basically means never. I believe this is willful and intentional and is use and throw and abuse of people. Some people will die waiting, some will reach retirement but will have leave country since there is no status after retirement, some will leave voluntarily after being laid off because we believe in the rule of law. We won't stay undocumented. In all cases we have gained nothing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Man, it looks so damn true.........

      Delete
    2. Bravo for the analysis. My only hope is to win a lottery or cheat the system

      Delete
    3. "Catty" - Your post states EB3-I quota as 2083. I thought the annual quota for EB3-India is 2802? Is that a typo? Thanks for the analysis though! .

      Delete
  37. In case you have not posted comments on regulations.gov yet, please do so at the following URL:
    http://www.regulations.gov/#!submitComment;D=USCIS-2015-0008-0001

    Here is a nice version that highlights our issues and explains why this change is necessary:

    This proposal does very little to provide relief to legal immigrants who are stuck in EB-2 and EB-3 backlogs. Most of us have been in the US legally for over a decade and have been working for the same employer. Regardless of the circumstances at our current jobs, we cannot change jobs without losing our place in line for a green card. We cannot make any meaningful progress in our careers without jeopardizing our green card application. We cannot make any major decisions in life while we are stuck in this state, such as investing in the US or purchasing a home or starting a business (which would create more jobs in the US), and there doesn't appear to be an end in sight for our ordeal. Having experienced this for over 10 years and not knowing when this would end is extremely stressful.

    Based on the guidelines provided in the executive order issued by the President in 2014, we were hoping to be set free from the clutches of our employers soon, but it all came crashing down when this regulation was published. The 'Compelling Circumstances' requirement is extremely restrictive and would hardly help anyone affected by current regulations and backlogs. Would you not consider our circumstances to be compelling enough to warrant a meaningful change?

    I think granting an EAD for those with an approved I-140 petition would help legal immigrants who are stuck in the backlog and US workers alike, as it would provide individuals with approved I-140 much needed job mobility, confidence to invest in the US, start companies, which would in turn spur economic growth, stabilize wages in the US and discourage employers from giving preference to H1-B visa holders over US workers.

    I'm hoping that you will be able to see the merits of granting EAD to petitioners with approved I-140.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Hi
    i have filed application to renew my EAD its been around 120 days still in process i have called and they started inquiry about
    but

    my PD is oct 2008 also about to current what if its get current and my EAD still in process to renew

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dhinal bhai, kem chho ?

      Delete
  39. You should be fine ...if your GC is approved EAD get void anyways !

    ReplyDelete
  40. And on top that a guy/lady who was bachelor when his/her EB3 was filed 10 years back is now a married person having 2-3 kids.
    When he/she ports, its going to consume at least 4 numbers from EB2 for each EB3.

    And let me tell you, the 'so called lawsuit' was an eye wash.
    To make DHS more determined not to advance the filing date.
    Its like big brothers are joined and playing with your fate in a sugar coated way.They must be smiling among themselves.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Now Married person having 2-3 kids, if they have US-born child why they consume 4-5 numbers? Mostly people here wants to have US-Born child so that they can have Strings attached with USA.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Its usually they already had kid(s) when they came on EB3. At the least first one , but second and more are born here. Typically EB3 are mainly filed by Indian consulting companies because they are the ones that cannot prove that a Masters degree is really required for their job profile. Those people tend to be nomads for a while (affording a family with what TCS / Infy pays is way difficult) until they switch to better jobs with US companies and that is when they port and get their family along , and of course they retain their priority date. To be honest this is based upon what I have seen plus the official stats that more nearly 60%+ visa numbers goes to family. Put everything together you get the picture.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Catty's calculation is so much like bitter truth.........

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's the worst case scenario though. For the optimist side you can count on spillover for other countries unused quota. That's the only ray of hope. People have had hopes in the past only to be dashed so having expectations low might surprise.

      Delete
  44. EB2 India goes to Aug 2008.
    https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-february-2016.html

    ReplyDelete
  45. check out the Feb bulletin..., no big suprises

    ReplyDelete
  46. April 2009 is the key.
    The moment it will hit April 2009, it will either stop/retro-gate OR move in days.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. @ Catty - Why do you think April 2009 is the breakpoint? Thanks.

      Delete
    2. The last inventory shows that there are 8K prior to April 2009 and they are not able to cross this date since last 2 years.
      Once this 8K is gone, they may start think about the inventory.

      Delete
  47. Hey Guys, Do you think I will be current next bulletin?. My priority date is EB2 Dec 2008.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. looking at the current trend, looks like they are advancing the dates by 6 months every cycle.. so high chances of EB2 Dec 2008 being current..

      Delete
  48. Hi Friends,

    I am new to GC world and seeing so many discussions here and there.

    After 4 years in USA, my employer finally agreed to file my GC in EB3-I. Its in advertise stage now.

    Can you please let me know when should I expect my GC in hand ? I am in E-V-V-C mode.

    Thanks,



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My dear friend, is your employer a desi consultant ?

      If yes then find a full time job and start your GC again.
      You have no idea where you are getting into my friend.

      Delete
    2. Also, my dear friend, most of us are in EB2 or EB3 "suffering" categories. You have no idea (will never do) about what we're going through. It's like you're shooting arrows at us by asking such questions about EB1 in this forum.

      Thanks, but no thanks.

      Delete
    3. In EB3-I, you won't get a green card in this lifetime.

      Delete
    4. You better marry (if bachelor ) and have a kid, your kid will probably sponsor your GC when he's 18, this way it's faster than filing in EB3.

      sorry I'm not discouraging but its truth, desi companies screw our lives, people waiting on EB3 for decades.

      Delete
    5. super idea man. Actually that's true :)

      Delete
    6. If you wish to enjoy the following
      -Job immobility
      -H1 renewals and stamping every 3 years
      -Heart burn from arts graduates and just out of school kids getting gcs through indian consulting companies
      -Pay for your own GC and renewals through your consultant
      -Thinking twice about travelling out of the country
      -And happy to endure many other pains that you can ask people who are going through..

      Then by all means please Eb3-1 is for you

      PS: Don't get disheartened. This is not to give you a grim picture but sadly that is reality.

      Delete
    7. Thanks everyone for your reply.

      In fact I am a B.Comm ( 3 years degree) graduate having done NIIT course.

      My employer told me that I can transfer to EB2-I after another 3-4 years and get my GC soon.
      For now, to start with EB3-I is fine.

      Is that correct ?

      Delete
    8. Man, you can go back to India, become a manager in CTS,TCS, Infy etc.
      Then come back as manager and file in EB1.

      You no need to go thru this BComm, BA stuff.

      Delete
  49. I have a friend who came to US with a BA degree. Working in gas station.
    He filed his GC in EB3-I in 2008.
    Then he ported to EB2-I doing some online course here.
    He got current last month.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Seems like a cheater filing a EB2 category. Report your friend to DSA or your green card dream will see only red light . Sorry pal, those are essentially the reasons why the very legal candidates are ducking behind the lines

      Delete
  50. Hi, My priority date is 03/01/2011 EB2I. When can I expect an EAD atleast. Any guess? Thanks for the reply.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Why don't you guys use Trackitt or other forums as Ambals does not have time these days to review visa bulletin. We are waiting last 5 days for his comments on the Feb visa bulletin and future predictions for the cutoff dates.

    ReplyDelete
  52. One one side its the lawsuit, on other side it is the protest and then the no-move intent.

    Killing EB2-I.

    ReplyDelete
  53. I think it is on one side the porting and Eb1 abuse and other side it is anti-immigrant stance within USCIS. The remaining is what we get for Eb2 (boat loads of BS)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes.
      It is multi-directional screwing.

      One side the porting and
      other side Eb1 abuse

      One side it is anti-immigrant stance within USCIS
      other side the very own desi's ( who already got GC & citizenship) & desi consultants opposing any initiative for legal immigrants benefits

      One side it is lawsuits forcing uscis/dhs to stop thinking moving filing date
      Other side, irresponsible statements, allegations etc. makes them angry

      etc. etc.

      Delete
  54. Ambalam,
    Where are you?
    Please don't leave us in this hour of dire need.

    ReplyDelete
  55. I wonder what is Ambal going to Anyways. I don't think anyone is going to do anything except the government.
    Looks like even to get H-1 extension, it is taking 6 months and I think in the next few years that will also have some retrogression dates like EB2 or EB3.
    It's just a frustrating time for all and we can't do anything which is not in our hands. I am also in queue for the last 5 years under EB2 category!

    ReplyDelete
  56. Not sure what is going on today, but scores of people signed petitions today. Looks like it has been depressing day for most of Eb2. Everybody's pain I listed in this.
    http://www.petition2congress.com/6398/stop-eb1-c-abuse-fraudulent-filing/

    That said, we don't know what good this will do. One encouraging bit of news is L1B blanket for India gets rejected at 56% rate, which if goes to 90% then we have light. So keep pushing.

    ReplyDelete
  57. Folks, do not get attracted to priority date guess discussion, signing any petition (for now) or any other discussion. The reason for this is no one has control on them except until rule gets implemented. This is for the people who are waiting to file their I-485 and I-140.
    For now, focus only on writing comments on the draft issued by USCIS. Dead line is February 29th, 2016.
    See the table of content in the draft and pick a topic and write a comment, since most of the topics needs improvements.
    Page 3-4 gives you an idea of where and how to submit your comments that is by mail, e-mail, courier.
    you can modify the comment if you are copying someone else comment. This is required for your comment to be accepted and not to get trashed. Also it may not be a bad idea to send two comments, you and your spouse. After all he/she also in the same boat.
    Spend some of your important time for your own future.

    ReplyDelete
  58. Hi,

    Our GC was filed under EB2 with priority date April 2008 with approved I-140 and pending I-485. We have renewed EAD twice so far. At this time I am switched to EAD fow work and abandoned my H1b.

    With all the noise and upcoming changes to EAD/i140, will it cause any trouble around next EAD RENEWAL (around Dec'16, planning to file around Aug'16)? Also I may change my employer around Mar/Apr time.

    Any piece of advise.

    Thanks Ambalas. Keep up the good work.

    - paras

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Your PD is current as per Feb 2016 right?

      Delete
    2. Correct, Seems like he is current, why the heck he needs EAD? Get your GC man unless you meant to say you are in EB3 which doesn't make any sense from your query.

      Delete
  59. That should not be a problem. Go ahead.

    ReplyDelete
  60. Hi

    I am just updating my greencard status...if it could help anyone

    Priority date april 1 2004 eb3 india
    Recieved rfe in July 2015
    Submitted RFE October 2015
    Status changed on January 7 2015
    Recieved greencard by mail on January 14 2016

    ReplyDelete
  61. U mean like a ***

    It is multi-directional screwing.

    One side the porting and
    other side Eb1 abuse

    One side it is anti-immigrant stance within USCIS
    other side the very own desi's ( who already got GC & citizenship) & desi consultants opposing any initiative for legal immigrants benefits

    One side it is lawsuits forcing uscis/dhs to stop thinking moving filing date
    Other side, irresponsible statements, allegations etc. makes them angry

    etc. etc.

    ReplyDelete
  62. I think FY-15 is going to be a tough year for spillover. EB2I will be royally efd again mainly because of EB2 ROW and EB1 India. EB3 Porting crap will be the usual and will take the 10k. Its unbelievable that since last two years all forums and great pundits have been forecasting that PD will move to atleast June/SEP 2009 and here we are in Feb 2016 will still 2008 not able to clear. Really a sad plight where we are treated like dogs from USCIS. I regret being here all these years in this line but have no choice but to wait. Going to India and starting all over will set me back by another 3 years.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. But at least you can go to India, join CTS/TCS/PCS/Infy etc. etc. as manager and come back after 1 year and file in EB1.

      That way, you will be certain to have it in 2 years rather than waiting for indefinite years.

      Delete
  63. HI My PD is 12/29/2009 and i have a pending I485. I have renewed my EAD once before. How will this new rule affect me. I have to renew my EAD again in Jan 2017, At that time if the cut-off date retrogresses to 2007, will i be not able to renew my EAD. I am not sure if a pending I485 are getting effected the same way as approved I140.

    Thanks for keeping the discussion alive. Good luck to all.

    ReplyDelete
  64. so,

    we filed our motion saying 'Hi'
    then the govt files its answer saying 'Hi'
    and
    we filed our motion saying 'Hi'
    then the govt files its answer saying 'Hi'
    and
    we filed our motion saying 'Hi'
    then the govt files its answer saying 'Hi'
    and
    we filed our motion saying 'Hi'
    then the govt files its answer saying 'Hi'

    and it continues.............

    And the fools thought something is going on.
    Good News.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And then they say "At least the Govt said 'Hi' because of the motion. Otherwise they were not even talking to you :)

      Delete
  65. So here is the calculations in case you become a US citizen and vote in future :-

    1. Democrats -
    Only for illegals and DACA,DAPA etc.
    Fight for them in court.

    Nothing for legals. Just say something But do nothing for them and if possible fight against them in court.

    2. Republicans :-
    Against illegals and sometimes legals.
    This time they are against both.

    ReplyDelete
  66. Thanks for the reply. Yeah, just noticed that the dates are current for me. Well, that still doesn't mean GC will be issued (chances are there). In case if that doesn't happen and dates went backward in that case I will still need to apply for EAD. Hence the question.

    ReplyDelete
  67. there is a strong indication that filing date may move till July 2011 on/before Oct 2016.
    So guys, be ready.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. by any probability of mathematics this can not be true.
      The numbers and calculations don't support this hypothetical statement.

      Delete
    2. Please list what are the strong indications.
      Let alone 2011, USCIS is reluctant to even accept filing dates (Jul 2009). By every measure that feat sounds least probable.

      Delete
    3. I also think that FAD may move upto Jul'11, Because that is what Mr. CO originally predicted, and that is why he moved dates to Jul 11 in the first place and later he moved back to Jul 09 and also one of his statement supports that "The Dates for Filing Visa Application in the revised Bulletin are where I estimated the Final Action Dates to likely be for each category in the next 8 to 12 months." May be because of Lawsuit they are not able to move the dates but likelihood is CO will keep up with his statement.

      Delete
    4. It will be great if the FAD moves to any date in 2011 or even 2010, and a small win in my perspective for a lot of people including me who's PD is EB2-I Jan 10, 2010. Back in Sept, I had my company lawyers to prep all of the paperwork for filing the I-485 and the EAD/AC21 but was absolutely shocked on Sept 25th when the FAD date went back to July 2009. I'm quite desperate to switch my employer so the EAD first is a must.

      Thanks

      Delete
    5. You have to understand that there is a strong opposition between USCIS and DOS on dates moving as far as 2011. The reason is they both have no clue as to how much new demand that will generate and how may more porting applications they have to take in. The move is likely to generate 10's of thousands of new AOS applications which the USCIS doesn't want to deal with at this point. So even though Mr CO had good intentions there are other departments that oppose that. So the very likely outcome is there is no effect of having the application filing dates until a point comes where Eb3 dates move closer to 2007 and EB1 fraud reduce. Until then Eb2 is a toast.

      Delete
    6. If that is the case then this lawsuit is holding it back.

      Sab mile hue hain...........

      Delete
    7. They have to move the FAD date to at least July 2010 to see the demand, isn't it?

      Delete
    8. Yes that was the idea. Move dates forwards so they can estimate demand. But the issue is when AOS application is filed with USCIS, they take about 180 days to adjudicate it and then they ask for visa number from DOS. So essentially there is so much lag as to what happens that they are clueless as to how much pending applications are out there and how much should they take. Think about this .. DOS is still giving visa numbers to people who have EAD for more than 2 years. They are still trying to clear that backlog.

      The fact is one department handles one part and other issues visa and both don't communicate very well. That is what this lawsuit is trying to bring out on terms of inefficiency and of course they don't like that and they are trying to cover up. At the end who are the losers ? What gives?

      Delete
  68. Hey, hope some of you had chance to read the draft and write comments.
    Dates can move forward to anywhere to retrogress quickly.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Got from trackitt:-

    The latest Inventory shows it would need the following number of approvals to clear all EB2-I cases to certain Final Action Dates:

    01JUL09 - 7,851 (up to July)
    01AUG09 - 8,849 (clears July)
    01SEP09 - 9,681 (clears August)

    In reality, you can add several thousand porting cases to that number, but deduct a number of cases since the FAD won't suppose that all cases are actually approved or otherwise completed.

    One huge figure missing at the moment is whether any spare FB visas are available to EB in FY2016. These are incredibly important.

    If we take CO's estimate that EB2-I received about 7.5k approvals last year as correct, then EB2-I received 4.7k more visas than the initial allocation of 2.8k if 140k had been available.

    We know EB total visas available were 144.8k.

    Let's assume further that EB2-I had access eventually to those extra FB visas allotted to EB4, EB1 and EB2-ROW/M/P, as well as those allotted to EB2-I itself (EB5 is excluded as having used all available visas, EB2-C used their allotment and EB2 has no access to those allotted to EB3).

    That amounts to an extra 0.1k to EB2-I by right plus a further 2.9k that were received via SO. 3k (62.3%) of the extra 4.7k visas received were directly attributable to the the 4.8k extra FB visas received.

    Put another way, without extra FB visas last FY (i.e. 140k total EB allocation), the underlying SO was only 1.7k.

    That should give some food for thought.

    Currently, the outlook for FY2016 isn't looking a whole lot better. As Matt says, that's subject to change if more data becomes available.

    As 2015 was a complete waste year for EB2-I, 2016 will also be an waste year.
    Unless porting stops and huge ( really huge) spill over comes from EB1.
    ( Both are very less likely) :(

    ReplyDelete
  70. looks like this will be a new trend.. eb2 will be stalled going fwd , the days of spill overs are gone. Eb1c will consume all the visa.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Yes, with what happened last year and what is GOING TO HAPPEN this year, it is pretty evident that until EB3-I reaches EB2-I AND EB1-C slows down,
    EB2-I will not cross 2009 July/Aug/Sep ( maximum) for the Final action date.

    Filing date is a mere joke now with pending lawsuit.

    ReplyDelete
  72. Hi Ambals
    Why no updates? I always rely on your blog update to know more on the priority dates prediction. Even if it is just a few lines, I wold really appreciate you taking some time to tell us your views. It would help many folks including me. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  73. Hi Ambals
    What is your say on this:
    http://www.murthy.com/2015/12/24/january-2016-visa-bulletin-official-insights-and-predictions/
    Murthy predicted way back in December that the visa bulletin will see ( according to Charles Oppenheim) 4-6 months movement every bulletin and as said, the Jan and Feb bulletin did see 6 months movement.Unlike a couple of years ago, where no movement happened in Dec- april,and things go forward only during the start of new fiscal year, this time, there has been movement..so what do you think could happen in the coming months? Will there be 4-6 months movement every month ? will the PD ever see the light of 2010? 2011 this year? Kindly tell.Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They are moving the dates during Jan-Feb because of Obama executive active to modernize visa allocation. They are not waiting till June.
      But that's not the solution.
      If you read Charles Oppenheim's prediction, he very clearly told below :-
      Specifically, as EB2 advances, this generates demand from what are known as EB3-to-EB2 "upgrades." The eight-month advancement in EB2 will only be possible in the absence of anticipated volumes of EB3 "upgrade" requests.

      This has been a trend since last 2 years.

      EB2-I advances till 2009 April and that creates lots of porting from EB3-I to EB2-I.
      And that's it.
      EB2-I either retrogates OR stops movement.

      I think the above 'AnonymousJanuary 24, 2016 at 8:33 PM' prediction is pretty much accurate.

      Delete
  74. EB-3 India is a Curse, seems like there is nothing will help for now. Obama's 2014-November news kept lot of hopes so far, but recent USCIS news about the EAD options for I-140's is very restrictive. It sucks now.

    ReplyDelete
  75. Did anyone read this yet? Good news or just a farce? -- http://immigrationgirl.com/what-to-expect-in-visa-bulletins-this-spring/

    ReplyDelete
  76. Guys, the lawsuit is the only hope.

    Win or Loss, at least we fight.

    And now tell me , how can I increase my twitter followers from some hundred to thousands ???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Start with publishing your twitter name

      Delete
    2. he he he............

      Wolf in sheep's clothing............

      Mutual benefits to hold filing date via a lawsuits.
      More H1B renews, more twitter followers, more marketing for some
      More H1B renew cum amendment plus premium money for uscis.




      Delete
  77. http://www.petition2congress.com/6398/stop-eb1-c-abuse-fraudulent-filing/view/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They are not abusing EB1-C.
      They are playing as per the law and using the loopholes in the law.
      The guys who are helping them are the lawyers.

      Now let's talk about this petition.
      Before doing anything ( if at all), POTUS office will ask to review this by a bunch of lawyers. And they will say, no abuse is happening as its happening as per the law.

      You keep on writing these petitions, nothing will happen.
      More amendments, more extensions, more transfers, more cases, more money.
      Where does this money go ??????
      Think, think.........

      Delete
  78. EB2 India moved only 75 Days for March VB. It is now Oct 15, 2008.

    https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-march-2016.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And Filling date is still rock solid.
      Thanks to our lawsuit.

      Delete
    2. How lawsuit is hampering the movement of Filing dates? The lawsuit was not for putting dates back from 11 to 09 for Indian Nationality, as far as i understand it was for all countries whose dates were moved back, even it is small difference still.. Now if Lawsuit is stopping to move FD's how come other countries FD are moving?

      Delete
  79. http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-march-2016.html

    ReplyDelete
  80. Thanks for very cleverly helping DOS to keep filling date as 'no change' until foreseeable future.
    Thanks the lawsuit.

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  81. copied from Catty :-

    April 2009 is the key.
    The moment it will hit April 2009, it will either stop/retro-gate OR move in days.

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  82. This is a great outlet for all you and me to vent, isn't it?

    Yeah whats up with the Filing date, it's been rock solid since Sept 25th (Black Friday for most of us EB2 Indians).

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  83. What's bad is USCIS keeps on sending RFEs when dates are not current. My PD is August 20, 2009 and they issued RFE on December 21, 2015 that I need to undergo medicals and submit proof of employment. Now its almost certain no numbers are available. They did same in 2014 and issued and rfe for medicals and employment. Similarly I got an rfe for employment in June 2012 (2 months after getting original EAD). Each time it costs money to do medicals and pay lawyer fees as employer says I have to go through company lawyer but I will be responsible for payment. Too bad every year I am spending on RFE and ead renewal every year and it still is a mirage. Thye lawyer suggests there is no point in suing USCIS as it wont help with anything. My guess is I will be spending money like this till 2020.

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    Replies
    1. Same boat. Have Jun 09 PD Eb2, and since last 3 years sick and tired of RFE's on medical, EVL letters and AC-21 explanations. No end is sight and they keep playing this game every year costing money and time. There are lot of people venting here and to all Indians, I say we stand together ; create a website and lay down some basic rights we want and try to create some change. I know some people are upset of the recent Visa Gate court case etc. but should we just sit on our a** and do nothing when majority of us treated like this despite having good degrees, solid jobs , respect at work , paying taxes and being good citizens for all these years. I am tired each year of dates moving till 2008 and then retrogressing. Don't have any hopes this year either.

      Delete
    2. The fact is we are screwed not only by poor policies, but also our fellow Indian citizens using Eb1 loophole. If the latter stop there is a fair chance that dates can progress. Even though we know the source of the problem what the hell can we do ? The government has closed it eyes and ears. It will rather help people who blatantly lie and game the system than law abiding people waiting patiently.

      Delete
  84. Any chance Ambal will write review about March 2016 Visa Bulletin.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Like many folks pointed out, there is nothing for me to write other than what is there in Visa Bulletin. I am waiting for I-485 pending inventory report and last year's visa issuance report. Once that is released, I can give some meaningful projections.

      Delete
    2. Ambals - I have always appreciated your writing. Don't let any moochers of this blog stop you from providing valuable input, however little it might be.

      Delete
  85. @Rampy, nothing is going to change with another website. There is alredy a group called immigration voice who have been performing rallies and tried changing few things 2-3 years back. Nothing worked. No one is going to listen to legal immigration issues. Only solution, yes unfortunately the only solution is Indians give less importance to United States. That is sort of a mass exodus. There are no less opportunities in India at the moment. If someone wants to be abroad there are countries with much better immigration rules. Why do we keep sticking to US? I have decided to leave this year after plenty of frustration with EB2 dates. Let US companies enjoy with so called MNC managers. They clearly dont need people with IIT/REC and then Master degrees. They can live with managers. So let them be. Only way Indians can make a difference is just vacating the country. All sillicon vally companies will go bankrupt if that happens

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    Replies
    1. While it is a good though but in reality this is never going to happen, are you expecting people to start leaving?

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  86. nope. no one will leave US but keep crying day after day that US is unfair. That is our nature and let's live with it

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  87. Guys with priority sate after July-2009 :-

    Just hold on to whatever job you have OR going to have.
    In any case dates for you are not going to be current in coming 3-5 years.
    3 for 2009
    4 for 2010
    5 for 2011

    Just hang on.
    If it is not possible start looking for alternates like Going back to India, moving to Canada or may be Mexico.

    Don't waste your time in thinking too much on these dates.



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for the information, would appreciate if you let us know how you got to these numbers?

      Delete
    2. So,
      1. EB3 has to come close to EB2 so that porting will stop and EB2 will start moving a bit
      2. EB2 will not move beyond 2009 June for for coming 3-4 years until EB3 date equals EB2.

      Delete
  88. There is a massive layoff rounds going on in the market with onsite inspection increasing..........

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Can you tell us which massive layoff are you talking about as mass layoff is a norm these days ? I applied for GC during the peak of recession in 09'. The PD was 07' back then. Turns out American companies in-fact filed for more ( if not less) GCs in 09, 10' and 11' and beyond. It tells you how important Indian skills and salary's are here :). Another recession will only add to more GC's being filed in EB3i and EB2i.

      Delete
    2. V**n, A**t, Y**o, A**n, G**l, C**t to name few

      Delete
  89. If you will read many nice analysis done by many others in this blog above, you would know that 3-5 years are really optimistic calculations.
    It could be more.

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  90. When will March 10 - 2009 become current. Will I get done this time in 2016 ? I have been waiting for 2 years now. Empathize will all fellow folks on how painful this process is..

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  91. Murthy says 3 months per month movement for EB2 India till June 2016. So a max date of July 15th 2009 in June 2016.

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    Replies
    1. That's it. Thats the end of the story for 2016 and coming years until :-
      1.EB3 comes close to EB2 so that porting will stop.
      2. OR, EB1-C abuse stops.

      Otherwise,
      moving -> approaching July 2009 -> stops moving -> retro grate -> stops moving -> moving -> approaching 2009 July -> done -> retrograte...............
      this story will continue for years to come.

      Delete
    2. its not murthy , uscis visa bulletin says 3 months until june 2016.

      Delete
    3. Years means ?? How many years ??
      10-20 ??

      Delete
    4. USCIS doesn't say 3 months of movement every month, but it just says we can expect 3 months of forward movement. So drumroll... we will stop as they predicted at the max of July 2009. The only variable here is whether USCIS might think about moving filing dates. If they don't then I think it is hopeless as above "Anonymous" post is we will retrogress to 2006 and again start.

      Delete
    5. Wish they freaking abolish this whole L1B and no perm required thing. If those MNC managers file for a perm. I'm pretty darn sure 90% will get rejected or get RFE

      Delete
  92. Murthy says nothing. They just repeat what somebody else ( OR USCIS) have already said.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. correct , they have no opinion of there own ,they talk like $$ lawyers.

      Delete
  93. https://medium.com/@rish_misra/this-is-what-waiting-for-an-employment-based-green-card-looks-like-81ecd73408e0#.774azv5hl

    Look at the graph :-

    moving -> approaching July 2009 -> stops moving -> retro grate -> stops moving -> moving -> approaching 2009 July -> done -> retrograte...............



    this story will continue for years to come.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Five thumbs up for the story....

      Delete
  94. I'm EB2 India PD of Jan 10, 2010, never applied for EAD/AP/I-485. Should I switch my employer? I have a great opportunity, close to home and pays 25% more.

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    Replies
    1. My Friend.. here are my 2 cents. Make the most of opportunities that come your way. EAD/ Green Card are not going to change your career progression overnight. What makes difference in end is how well you utilized opportunities that were presented to you. Technically by changing jobs you can still utilize your first priority date. However the point I am trying to make here is getting a Green Card 2 years early and 2 years later wont matter if you keep passing on opportunities hoping for some miracle after your immigration limbo is cleared. And finally best part about whole job related immigration process is.. System does not see any difference between donkey and horse. Its is up to you at what speed you want to run !

      Delete
    2. Great advise, whoever you are, I could buy you a drink if I knew you. Thanks!

      Folks may have realized after my first note, that why didn't I apply for my I-485 back in Feb 2012 when the dates almost went to April 2010. I switched my job in Dec 2011, thinking this EB2 limbo won't clear (back then in Dec 2011, we were still in 2007/2008 or something).

      Point is, I made the "horse" leap in 2012, the GC came and went away from my hands. Should I take another chance?

      Delete
    3. very very tricky situation.
      Jan 2010 is like on the edge.

      Delete
  95. Unfortunately, no immigration-voice.com, no immigrationgirl.com, no theohlawfirm.com, no Ambals, no murthy.com and lastly, not even the best immigration lawyer can advise me on this.

    Life is a box of chocolates, you never know what you're going to get.

    ReplyDelete