Friday, March 10, 2017

EB2 and EB3 India Latest Numbers


April 2017 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. The EB2 India dates for getting Green Card stands at 22 JUN 08. The EB3 India date is at 24 MAR 05.

Estimated 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2016 and 30 September 2017 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.

DOS also released the complete annual report for FY 2016. The EB2 India numbers from there are 3,930 and EB3 India number is 4,583.

Comparing this to the previous years, the number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2016 - 3,930
FY 2015 - 7,235
FY 2014 - 23,527
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

EB2 India receives 2,809 immigrant visas (Green Cards) every year. On the top of it, it receives spill over from EB1, EB4, EB5 and EB2 - ROW. Typically, unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case).

The numbers released confirms what was suspected all along. The spill over to EB2 India has almost vanished -- 3,930 Vs 2,809. Given the fact that, EB3 to EB2 porting is increasing and it consumes almost all of EB2 numbers, explains the very very slow movement of EB2 India number in each visa bulletin. Please note the availability of EB2 India Green Card was 23,527 in FY 2014 and only 3,930 in FY 2016.

Given this, I think EB2 India will move only at the same pace -- couple of weeks to a month per bulletin -- depending on spill over and porting. On the other hand, EB3 India might move little faster once it crosses 31 MAR 05. If the latest inventory we have as of october 2016, has to be believed, there are only 1729 I-485s pending for 2005. Hence, the faster movement expectation.

If this trend continues, the future for EB2 and EB3 India looks very gloomy. Law change is the only way to make it move forward faster.

Data Sources:

I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

April 2017 Visa Bulletin --https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2017/visa-bulletin-for-april-2017.html



136 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  2. So, the choice is very clear :-

    1. Have a baby and wait for 21 years
    2. Apply EB GC now and wait for 21 years to be current

    ReplyDelete
  3. Why spillover to EB2 so low in 2016

    ReplyDelete
  4. Pending Inventory released for Jan 2017.

    https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_of_January_2017.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  5. Thank you for the analysis!
    What is the annual quota for ROW EB2 or EB3? Is it 20,000 ?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Why is March 2005 EB3 inventory so high? Thats what is delaying EB2 progress. This inventory should have moved to EB2 by now.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Why Philippines got 6,366 under EB3 while India got less even though India has huge backlog? Shouldn't the country limit apply to Philippines too?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is unfortunate (not because Philippines got more and India did not. Would be better if rules were followed in proper manner), but that's how it is!! Consider this as empirical equation.

      Delete
    2. Considering the fact that EB1 India walked away with 11k green cards, we can't complain much can we ?. This means India is producing so many Einsteins. Eb2 and Eb3 folks, come on, you are not an Einstein - so pls wait.

      Delete
    3. It's not about Einstein, he was the one and only. Also EB1 category does not ask for Einstein level qualification.
      Everyone applies with proper documentation and go thru approval process and then get GC, not thru back door. EB1 India got 11K that does not mean EB3 India should suffer.

      Delete
    4. All you need is 1 year manager experience in Indian top IT companies. Thats all. That is where USCIS failing to catch them :)

      Delete
  8. Where do we find each year FB category unused visa numbers that are moved to EB category. could any one please provide the Data sources.

    ReplyDelete
  9. If my date is 2013, when can I reasonably expect my GC?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. year 2028, you will get the GC.

      Delete
    2. May be 2048....

      Delete
    3. Is there a similar approximation for EB3-I? Mine PD is May 2006, when can I expect pls?

      Delete
    4. May 2006, you should get it by 2018 dec

      Delete
  10. Guys, its a simple calculation for EB2-I.

    It will advance move ( net move) 4 months per year.

    Now based on your priority date, calculate the wait period.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Obviously, you don't have a clue how this works.

      Delete
  11. so if someone has PD in 2017 - then 9 years - so 12x9/4 ~ 25 years??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Someone with PD in 2017 is never getting a Green Card unless its EB1.

      Delete
    2. Yes. May be more.

      Delete
    3. I agree. If you are applying EB2 today (end of 2017), you probably will never get your GC. Many folks don't realize that as nothing is clear.

      Delete
  12. so at this rate, early 2011 PD's could well be last to see GC's in EB categories?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. YES. And that's the hard fact.

      Delete
  13. My PD is Sep 15, 2010. What do you think, I can apply for my EAD at least? And When can my date be current for GC?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Guys, its a simple calculation for EB2-I.

      It will advance move ( net move) 4 months per year.

      Now based on your priority date, calculate the wait period.

      Delete
  14. If EB3 to EB2 porting is consuming some green cards, it should reflect in total EB2 green cards. The main reason is little spillover due to higher EB1 filing.

    ReplyDelete
  15. I am EB2-I with PD as Sep 15, 2010. What do you think, when can my dates be current for EAD and GC?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. you will get it between 2020 and 2022

      Delete
    2. Guys, its a simple calculation for EB2-I.

      It will advance move ( net move) 4 months per year.

      Now based on your priority date, calculate the wait period.

      Delete
    3. Mr., Can you please elaborate your theory of 4 months move per year with example. For e.g. 1 Jan 2010 PD with your theory when they will get GC? Why you not considering current PD as per VB that they are processing for GC?

      Delete
    4. My dear, this theory has been arrived after several calculations with various data points. I can NOT put all of them here.

      Now, to answer ur question on PD of 1Jan 2010:-

      In 2017, EB2-I PD is stopped at 22 Jun 2008.
      In 2018, it will go upto 22 Oct 2008
      In 2019, it will go upto 22 Feb 2009
      In 2020, it will go upto 22 June 2009

      like that u can calculate for whatever PD u want.

      Delete
  16. Time to go back and # Make India Great Again!

    ReplyDelete
  17. Seriously guys, I know keeping hope is good. But having false hope is bad.

    Anybody beyond 2011 priority date will not get GC in coming 20 years.

    And that's the truth.

    Just earn as much as you can and be ready to go back any moment.

    ReplyDelete
  18. What about EB2 I - PD -September-2009, any hope within 2-3 years ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Guys, its a simple calculation for EB2-I.

      It will advance move ( net move) 4 months per year.

      Now based on your priority date, calculate the wait period.

      Delete
    2. Are you sure it would be 4 months per year ?

      If yes, then we may be little luckier.
      I think it would be 2 months move per year for EB2-I.

      Delete
  19. don't know if you guys analyzed, but Philippines got over 5500 EB2 visa last year, not sure if it was a mistake or Philippines and other countries got prioritized over India

    ReplyDelete
  20. GC is pipe dream. Getting ration card is easier. Only option is to get recommendation letter from local MLA and send to USCIS to expedite GC process - guaranteed GC in 1 week.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Only Trump can help now lol

    ReplyDelete
  22. Massive onsite checking are being conducted in Dallas, Atlanta, Chicago areas.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  23. Looks like EB1-C application is skyrocketing by Indian service firms.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. how do you know?? EB1 is not an easy process and not everyone qualifies so I doubt applications can sky rocket and even if it does not everyone is going to get approved.

      Delete
    2. that's the million dollar ques. How on mother earth did in last 2 to 3 years EB1 skyrocket to 12k per year. I feel like a donkey on EB2 waiting with a PD of 2009. What jugad is being used. It cant be only indian IT firms behind this.

      Delete
    3. I have seen many individuals in my neighborhood, who have entered US in last 1-2 year, and have alreading got their fingerprinting done for GC, They are all entering US on EB1-C. Most of them are working through a consultant, or are placed onsite. they have a 'Manager' title in India, and since the employer does not change, they continue with the manager title, hence they qualify for EB1C

      Delete
  24. If i work as a contractor but 100% remote, how should the LCA and H1 petition be filed? Do i need to file h1 amendment if client has not changed but now i work from home 100% after h1 was last approved? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. better ask your attorney. i see lot of false information is circulated, it will be more harm than good to get advice in internet. good luck.

      Delete
    2. Thank you.

      Delete
  25. Visa bulletin for May is released. No movement for India Final Action Dates for both Eb2 and Eb3. Date of filing dates retrogressed for Eb2, advanced for Eb3. Good sign to port GC applications from Eb2 to Eb3.

    ReplyDelete
  26. For EB1 status. The EB1-C should be stopped or kept only for American multinationals who hire a top class manager. Only EB1A and EB1B should be considered in my opinion

    ReplyDelete
  27. From Oh law firm
    VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCES.
    During the past six weeks the level of Employment-based First and Second preference demand for adjustment of status cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services has increased dramatically. Continued heavy demand for numbers will require corrective action to hold number use within these annual limits..
    Employment First Preference: A Final Action Date will be established for both CHINA-mainland born and INDIA in the near future. Once such a date has been established, there is some chance that it might advance slowly through September. The date for these countries will once again become CURRENT for October, the first month of fiscal year 2018.
    Employment Second Preference: Worldwide, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, and the Philippines can be expected to become oversubscribed no later than July. It is possible that there could be some forward movement of the established Final Action Date by September. The date for these countries will once again become CURRENT for October, the first month of fiscal year 2018..

    ReplyDelete
  28. Hello everyone,

    Real story here: After working in India for 3 years in a top company, I came to the US for Masters in a top university. After graduating in 2009, got a job in a top tech smartphone company. Unfortunately they didn't sponsor in EB2 and had to shift to another top tech company in Silicon Valley. And finally had my place in the EB2 line with a priority date of July 2014.

    But after working long hours for so many years, I had a burnout and badly needed a break. After lot of contemplation, I finally had the realization that I'll never get a green card with a PD of July 2014 in EB2I.

    So I migrated to Australia and now am working as a senior analyst and earning close to what I was in the US. I have the Australian PR (Green Card) and do not have any restrictions in terms of jobs or travel.

    I am also starting my own company and it is off to a good start. I hope to make $500,000 within the next 4-5 years and invest that in the US (or move my company to US) and file my green card in EB5.

    I don't see any other alternative.

    I urge all my fellow GC hopefuls to be open minded about other countries (or India) and just follow your dream and passion. If you are not happy at a place, leave that place and find your next destination.

    Life is too short to waste hoping for a green card, which will take a very long time.

    Best of luck!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How can one apply for Australian PR? Is job offer required?

      Delete
    2. I am not sure if you are telling the truth or lying so that others leave the line and you can go forward. If you are telling the truth, then you are one of the most honest men, I have ever met on the internet. But if not...Why do I say, you might be lying ??. If you are making 500K in australia, you would not bother coming to the US. Also, how did you get funding for company. How is the VC stuff in Australia ?. Also, why are you giving advice on a blog which talks about priority dates etc...wouldn't you be better off writing your own blog...aren't you busy running your company ?.

      Delete
    3. Australian PM just abolished the 457 work visa program. Also, the capital investment for eb5 is $1 million and that too you get that approved after heavy scrunity. $500 million is applicable only to certain impoverished areas like downtown Detroit, Cleveland, west Virginia. I know a person who invested in a business in Cleveland and was mugged several times. He had to sell it off for a loss and later he returned back to Dubai.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous guy posted at 8.34pm seems like the most distrusting, miserable person there is around! That guy said $500 in 4-5 years, thats 100k a year. Yeah right he is lying hoping u will leave the line. Get a life man!

      Delete
    5. Hi,
      My experience was also like the person (moved to australia on PR. I came to US in 2010 on L1 and in 2012 I applied for Australian PR for backup and got approved same year.

      Later I progressed in positions and compensations within US that I could ever dream getting in Australia, so I've not moved to Australia initially and continued working there in US and moved from L1 to H1 employer for GC. My employer filed GC in 2015 and by end of 2016 political changes happened (trump came in).

      I was in serious confusion on whether to give up Australian PR (as it will naturally expire if I dont enter Australia after 5 years of approval) or to continue live in Limbo in US.

      Though pay and experience is good in US, uncertainity of visa approvals, extensions and the GC durations are realy pain.

      This pain will be more especially for kids. If something happens to visa, it will be very difficult for the kids to manage in India.

      So made the final tough and strategic decision of leaving US and move to Australia with strategic decision

      1. Moving to Australia doesnt impact my PD as it remains with me/for me always.

      2. By moving to australia, i'll get my australian citizenship in next 4 years. This gives me a good backup for my kids to live in developed country ever.

      3. US political focus is more on H1b, by becoming an Australian citizen, I can tap the benefits of E3 visa specifically given for australians. E3 has lot of benefits compared to H1b

      I'll come back to US after 4 years again on H1 or E3 without worrying where I'll go back if something goes wrong in US.

      Beyond all the strategic benefits I mentioned above, the down side of it is less pay in Australia. I'm getting almost 40% lesser than what I earned in US and also significant increase in cost of living.

      I know I cant complain everything :-).

      Note: I'm not here to lie or give false advise to make people go away from GC Queue to take one :-). Just purely sharing my genuine experience :-)

      Delete
  29. I attended couple of family farewell parties this weekend.
    The friends are leaving USA. They were stuck in EB2-I line for long.

    But

    They are going to Canada ( courtesy Cognizent) for 1 year in managerial post. Then they will come back and apply GC in EB1.

    Wow............

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nothing to wow about. Its only because of these (people) & loopholes everyone is stuck in line. Unless the government realizes and stops this BS, nothing will happen. What an irony. You can be a director in a Fortune 500 company and you cannot be considered multinational manager, but you go out of the country and even if you manage a bunch of pigs in a farm you become multinational manager.

      Delete
    2. yes, all the delay in EB2 India is due to EB1C ABUSE by Cognizant, TCS. work towards stopping it IF YOU WANT A GREEN CARD in this lifetime.

      Delete
  30. Given the broken GC system for EB2 & EB3 categories, I wonder why many Indians still want to stay back hoping against hope?

    After having spent their formative years in India, why woulx they not want to give back to their country?

    Nations like USA, UK, UAE, Saudi Arabia and most recently Singapore & Australia have implemented rules favoring nationals over expats. Unless Indians realize the golden days are over, they will be in trouble in the coming decades.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. have you gone back? or if you are not from India why do you care and why are you on this blog?

      Delete
    2. No I'm not from India but I do have people I care for who are from there. I don't think there is a restriction that this blog is only for Indians.

      Delete
  31. EB1 India priority date now is -> 01JAN12 . GAME OVER for this year. let's prep for another year of painful wait , false optimism.

    ReplyDelete
  32. So, after this latest inventory data, if anybody has any hope for EB2-I to to cross 2009 in coming 7-8 years then that's very very optimistic.

    EB1-I is new EB2-I and
    EB2-I is new EB3-I until EB3-I reaches/crosses EB2-I



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That means for EB2-I to cross below:-

      2009 in 2015
      2010 in 2020
      2011 in 2027
      2012 in 2039

      Good Luck !

      Delete
    2. actually it was :-

      2009 in 2025 ( 7-8 years from now)
      2010 in 2030 ( +5 years)
      2011 in 2036 ( +6 years)
      2012 in 2043 ( +7 years)
      2013 - see u upstairs

      Delete
  33. Do you guys know what happened with the EB2 I-485 inventory? It looks like that between January and April of 2017 the # of people with 2008 priority date went up by a whooping 5500 people. These cannot all be just Eb3 upgrades so what can cause such a huge jump?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think these are fake numbers and uscis is just scamming. Total count with 2010 pd has just dropped from previous inventory while in 2008 increased.

      Delete
    2. The visa bulletin is a scam. Philippines got 5500 green cards in EB3- even though India is the most backlogged country. I am guessing they are intentionally keeping india backlogged so ITServ etc can take advantage.

      Delete
  34. Welcome back Ambals. I've been reading your earlier visa bulletin blogs and was eagerly waiting for new updates. Very glad that you are back !! Thanks for the updates.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Met some friends from CTS and TechM.
    They are devastated as the compavy has stopped doing eb2 & eb3.
    It is ONLY doing eb1.

    Those poor guys are in their 5th-6th year in h1b.

    Last year eb2-I got only 3K GC while eb1-C got 10K GC.

    EB1-C is choked till next 3-4 years. And after that eb2/eb3 may move little.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is blessing for people who are genuninely waiting. CTS and other Indian companies are just bogus companies. I think we should be happy than feeling for them.

      Delete
  36. I took the latest inventory data, took the visa bulletin movements and calculated a supply-demand math and then was trying to find when my priority date i.e. Dec 2012 will be current.

    My answer was so bleak that I was scared.
    With current data the date will be current on Oct-2046.

    I am 36 years old now.
    By 2046, I will be 65.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. sorry to hear it... why dont you plan to sound this words in white house as another new movement....be positive

      Delete
    2. EB2-India dates will hover over 2008-2009 for next few years. Some point EB2-India and EB3-India will converge and will be few months/years apart.

      Below is optimistic estimates for India EB2/3

      10-14 years is an optimistic range wait time for people with PD for May 1st 2010 to End of FY2010(i.e Sep 30th 2010)
      14-20 years is an optimistic range wait time for people with PD for Oct 1st 2010 to End of FY2011(i.e Sep 30th 2011)
      20-32 years is an optimistic range wait time for people with PD for Oct 1st 2011 to End of FY2012 (i.e Sep 30th 2012)

      Anyone from India with a PD after 2011 or 2012 has a better chance to get GC via USC kids sponsoring once they reach 21 years or EB5/EB1 route.

      Delete
  37. A friend of mine got his Greencard in 1-2 years, this was around 5 or so years ago since he just got his citizenship. He has a MS in Computer Science and works in IT as a Reports developer (SQL stuff). How come you guys are saying it takes 25 years?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 5 years ago the abuse of Eb1 was minimal and there was a reasonable chance that Eb2 queue will move quickly.

      Today Eb1 is abused blatantly by all the offshore coders who are considered to be the most skilled executives. (See I485 pending inventory on how much Eb1 quota is consumed from a few thousand in 2010 to nearly 20K in 2016).


      5 years ago Eb2 worldwide demand was small. Not so today.

      Just like technology grew exponentially, all outsourcers grew their fraud exponentially. Its the perfect storm of things that shouldn't have happened has happened and it will be very difficult to unwind from this structural change.


      Delete
  38. We all had our chance of getting EAD in 2015 when the filing date was moved.
    ITSERVE watered it down by its conspiracy.

    Report ITSERVE to DHS.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  39. Does the pending inventory include the dependents as well? Are dependents subject to visa number availability. As the wait time is increasing, I wonder the number of dependents for each GC applicant may also increase if they expand their family.

    ReplyDelete
  40. So, all the predictions are coming true.

    As almost everybody in EB3-I has ported to EB2-I, eb3-i will move faster and will become equal to eb2-i.

    After that eb2-i will move 4 weeks per month and eb3-i will move 1 week per month. Eventually the gap between these two will increase to again like 1 year. And then eb2-i will stop moving and eb3-i will catch up.

    This cat and mouse game will continue for decades.

    below is for EB2-I

    2009 in 2025 ( 7-8 years from now)
    2010 in 2030 ( +5 years)
    2011 in 2036 ( +6 years)
    2012 in 2043 ( +7 years)
    2013 - see u upstairs

    ReplyDelete
  41. murthy dot com says: Mr. Oppenheim expects that, at best, EB2 India will advance to an October 2008 cutoff date by the end of FY17.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. correct :-

      2009 in 2025 ( 7-8 years from now)
      2010 in 2030 ( +5 years)
      2011 in 2036 ( +6 years)
      2012 in 2043 ( +7 years)
      2013 - see u upstairs

      Delete
    2. why i see +1 year after 2010,11 and 12 lol

      Delete
  42. anonymous who commented at June 8, 2017 at 6:28 PM, your comment is gone. please retype again. we want to know how ITSERVE scrwd things.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Dude - Nation wants to know is famous comment from arnab goswami.I thought you were making a statement like arnab goswami with humor and simply stated arnabing. Not sure why you were offended and responded with foul language. Cheers:)

    ReplyDelete
  44. That foul language was posted by a different "Anonymous". I posted "Nation wants to know" with the sense of humor.

    ReplyDelete
  45. August bulletin is out now, any analysis/thoughts

    ReplyDelete
  46. To hell with everything

    ReplyDelete
  47. For Murthy's newsletter

    Employment-Based, Second Preference (EB2) India: Disappointing News
    Due to a spike in ‘upgrade’ cases from the employment-based, third preference (EB3) category, EB2 India will not advance in September 2017, and may even retrogress. If that occurs, the cutoff date would return to the current date of July 22, 2008, in October.

    More discouraging is the fact that, for FY18, EB2 India is predicted to advance at about the same pace as it did in fiscal year 2017 (FY17). If that holds true, this category would only advance by about one year by the end of FY18. Moreover, any such advancement is expected to be made fairly conservatively for the first quarter of the fiscal year, in order, hopefully, to avoid major retrogression later.

    ReplyDelete
  48. EB2-I:-

    2009 in 2025 ( 7-8 years from now)
    2010 in 2030 ( +5 years)
    2011 in 2036 ( +6 years)
    2012 in 2043 ( +7 years)
    2013 - see u upstairs

    ReplyDelete
  49. hello,

    my pd is eb2-i aug 2014

    when can i expect my gc ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. via Employer - No chance in your life time if you are 35 years old or older

      via US born kids - when whey will become 21 , plus another 1-2 years for processing.

      Remember - all these backlogged EB2/EB3 will apply via their kids and that line will also choke and cut off date has to be set.

      Delete
    2. ha ha ha........

      The family based will also choke....

      Delete
    3. Nope. there is no line for parents if kids are US citizens. Check this - https://www.uscis.gov/family/family-us-citizens/parents/bringing-parents-live-united-states-permanent-residents

      Delete
  50. you can expect GC upstairs

    ReplyDelete
  51. A very high level calculation:-

    There are 11K primary applicants in EB2-I by May -2010.

    Including dependants it is approx 25K ( 1.5 per primary i.e. 15k . 10+15= 25K)

    Spill over = 0
    EB3 to EB2 porting is 300 per year.
    So in 2 years ( Current PD 2008 to 2010) it will be 600.
    Most of the EB3 are married and having at least 2 kids by now.
    So total = 600 + 1800 = 2400

    Total EB2-I demand by May-2010= 25K + 2.5K = 27.5K

    Per year quota = 2802

    So it will take 27.5K / 2802 = 9.8 Years to clear May 2010.



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There are 23K in 2011, 17K in 2012, 9K in 2013
      So imagine what will happen after 2010.

      Just to cross 2011, it will take :-
      23*1.5 = 34.5
      EB3->EB2 porting will be another 5K at least
      Total = 23.5 + 5 = 28.5

      So to cross 2011 ( after 9.8 yrs from now once 2010 May become current) it will take
      = 28.5/2802 = 10.1 Years

      And the story of 2012 will start........

      So if you are 35 years old now.
      2010 = 35 + 9 = 44
      2011 = 44+ 10 = 54

      God bless you ! God bless America, God bless Indians..........

      Delete
    2. There is one silver bullet to solve this mess..
      Kill L1
      That will change this whole set of equations overnight.

      Delete
    3. And that's never going to happen.

      Nobody is talking about L1.
      Nobody demanding statistics for L1. Nobody demanding abuse by L1.

      Wverybody is talking about H1B, H1B,H1B.............only.

      Delete
  52. I think anybody who is after 2009 dec in EB2-I should seriously think of having an alternate plan.

    1. A daily harassment from the boss, USCIS, company and others who have GC & citizenship
    2. A constant fear of looking job and status everyday


    What to do ?????

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There are indians who are failing prey to marketing and realtors and buying houses.

      I know many guys who came to usa on 2010 and have priority date 2015 ( eb2/eb3 india) and buying houses and doing house warming parties.

      A small moment of happiness..........

      Delete
    2. I have PD in 2009, and I feel I wont get my GC for next 3 years. But I have many friends who have PDs in 2010 and later and hope to get it in next 2 yrs. As they say, its all in your mind. I would say, enjoy your life and do well in your career. Hopefully save decent money and if or when the time comes, try to find a good job in India or immigrate to Canada or Australia if you can. I see no hope for EB21 unless EB1A rule changes for these intercompany tranfers

      Delete
    3. The other option(which I seriously think), desi folks should do, instead of buying homes is go for Eb5 investor program. You need 500K to apply. I know, it is a lot of money. But if some how you can save that much money....you will get the green card. As there is no wait time for India in Eb5. It is filled with applicants from Mainland China.

      Delete
    4. I see some hope in the recent bulletin. At least the dates didn't retrogress in this last bulletin of the year, which means we will have some forward movement this year.

      Delete
  53. Will dates retrogress in Sept or Oct bulletin?

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  54. The only immediate hope we have is HR392. If it gets approved from House-->Senate -->Prez sign, it'll remove all the national caps and it'll be within a few years all dates will be current for EB2. Please support that as much as possible.

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    Replies
    1. H.R.393 was sponsored by Jason Chaffetz who does not appear to hold office anymore. Fat chance of passing!

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    2. how do you support that??

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    3. At our levels we can only support organizations like SIIA or immigration voice. Make people aware about these orgs working for HR392. Spread the word and increase awareness among people.

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  55. Gandu Trump made interview compulsory. Now more delay for GC. CRAP!!!!!!

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  56. hoping ..interviews for EB1 will expose the fraud to some extent and may benefit EB2/EB3

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  57. Time aageya...........

    sabko ghar wapis jaana padega........
    You ignored your parents and now God is making you to see them.

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  58. Folks, I have been following other groups and everyone is positive about the Filing date moving to 2010 or even 2011. Does anyone have any idea about this? Also, what is the prediction for a early 2011 PD?

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  59. Though I doubt it it's possible because they set mandatory interview. Give ead and take own time to call for interview. Which forum did u see this info

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    Replies
    1. In trackitt usa. Don't know how reliable those discussions are. Ambals, I gave a request- could you atleast do a post every other month? Would help us souls who look on reliable posts like yours for information. Thanks for considering.

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    2. I can try. Some readers feel all I am telling is what is in the visa bulletin :)

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    3. Ambals, now-a-days you rarely add any comments or give any reviews or updates. I dont ever feel you're just repeating the VB. You have the ability to put VB, predictions, past data released from USCIS into perspective and present your analysis. Please continue to do so

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  60. new visa bulletin is out but no reason to look!

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  61. Ambals, is there any advantage of downgrading to EB3 category? Currently EB2I (Feb 2011).

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  62. I really wish that Ambals would start posting his thoughts on the blog again. Even if it's not every month but quarterly or so, it will be help. I always find your analysis more logical than anything else on internet on same topic.

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  63. For my I-485 application that was filed many many years ago, I just got a "my name was updated" status message. Does anybody know what this means?

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  64. ambals , new inventory is out , any golden nuggets? https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/EB_I_485_Pending_Inventory_August17.pdf

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  65. 2017
    EB1:13,081
    EB2:2,879
    EB3:6,641

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  66. Hello Everyone,

    I see some folks talking about Sen. Hatch's Bill on Immigration. I follow this forum and multiple other forums regularly and wanted to inform folks here on some key efforts under way on Immigration.

    RHC founded by Shalabh Kumar (you can read about him at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shalabh_Kumar) is leading an immigration reform effort for Indians who are stuck in the EB 2/3 backlogs. They are working with the Republican Lawmakers and have found Senator Rand Paul as a to champion this cause. Sen. Rand is in turn working with Sen. Hatch, Rep. Yoder to create a bill for us. RHC is planning to run mass media campaign on our immigration issues to educate the American masses and get their support for our agenda (through polls etc). This requires small donations for all affected, the total funds required is $5Million. RHC is also working to unite all organizations ImmigrationVoice, SIIA, LIFE under one umbrella to fight for our cause, which is

    #ClearGreenCardBacklog
    #EndCountryLimits
    #DALCA - Legal Dreamers (Dependent kids of H1B holders who will age out at 21 and would be out of status)

    We are planning a mega rally (20-25k attendents) on April 15th in DC which will be addressed by Sen. Rand Paul and other Lawmakers. Please download the messaging app "Telegram" and join the following group to support this cause for our own sake, plan to join the rally on 15th April in DC and also spread the message to friends and colleagues in the same situation. Friends its #NowOrNever, please join & support the cause, else GC will remain a dream after working so hard all these years

    https://t.me/joinchat/EYn8Y02K5cvzU3xo5dypwQ

    There is a flyer for this event, not able to attach a jpeg here. Please see the facebook page of RHC Immigration Solutions.

    We had organized a rally in DC on Feb4th 2018, which got media coverage on Washington Post, economic Times India, NDTV, Hindustan Times among others. We are raising the awareness, we need to continue building the momentum to achieve our goal.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/local/dc-politics/high-skilled-indian-workers-rally-for-trumps-merit-based-immigration-plan/2018/02/03/702e617e-08fd-11e8-8777-2a059f168dd2_story.html
    https://www.ndtv.com/indians-abroad/indian-americans-hold-rally-to-support-merit-based-immigration-1808405?type=news&id=1808405&category=indians-abroad
    https://m.economictimes.com/nri/nris-in-news/indian-americans-hold-rally-to-support-merit-based-immigration/articleshow/62775423.cms

    Thanks.

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