Wednesday, March 14, 2018

March 2018 EB2 and EB3 India Numbers


April 2018 Visa Bulletin was released yesterday. The EB2 India dates for getting Green Card should be before 22 DEC 08. The EB3 India date is at  01 FEB 08. [1]

Estimated 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018 -- under Employment Based Green Card category. [2]

In FY 2017, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,879 and EB3 India was 6,608. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [3]

According to latest inventory we have, as of Jan 2018, For EB3 India, there are 2050 I-485s pending for 2006 and 1767 for Jan to Aug 2007. For EB2 India, there are 7557 I-485s pending for 2008. [4]

Regarding the filing dates, USCIS has a logic, which we have no visibility to. They can technically open up the Filing dates to latest dates. This will give opportunity to file I-485 and more importantly get the EAD and give the much needed -- less hassle job portability.

Couple of new developments in this Visa Bulletin. One, there is a priority date for EB1 India, which is 01 JAN 12. It was current in last Visa Bulletin. Two, the priority date for EB3 India in the last Visa Bulletin was 01 JAN 07 and it jumped one year and one month to 01 FEB 08. First one is bad news, because it means there will be no spillover to EB2 from EB1. Second is a good news for EB3 India. Applicants with priority date before 01 FEB 08, who have been waiting long time will be able to file their I-485 and get EADs.

Given all this, the short term prediction is EB2 India, for final action dates, will move only at the same pace -- one week to a month per bulletin -- depending on spill over and porting. On the other hand, EB3 India should move much faster.  I surely didn't expect one year movement. But, DOS has done it. It is good for EB3 India applicants. The long term prediction is, EB3 India will match the dates of EB2 India. Then, porting will slow down. There is a chance, EB3 India will start getting ahead of EB2 India in priority dates. Then, like you see in traffic lines, people can jump from one lane to another depending on number of pending applications. How, the EB3 to EB2 is called "upgrade", there can be "downgrade" from EB2 to EB3. It has happened/is happening in EB China categories, we can expect the same in EB India categories as well.

Data Sources:
[1] April 2018 Visa Bulletin --https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-april-2018.html

[2] Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

[3] EB2 Numbers are taken from --https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2017AnnualReport/FY17AnnualReport%20-TableV.pdf

[4] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/Employment-based_I-485_pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_January_2018.pdf

68 comments:

  1. So basically, all the porters who stalled EB2 progress will now flip the coin.

    True Story:
    I was visiting Disney in Orlando. A Desi family jumped lines to FastPass, a White family caught them, this resulted in a massive war of words, cops were called, most folks sided with the White's, clearly desi's were wrong, and kicked desi's out of the park. This happened last year 2017. Desi's behaving this way everywhere is not great, we need a better attitude, live life right.

    This is maybe 1% bad crowd, not to generalize things, but we need to be mindful of our actions, learn to be better.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 99.9999% desis are like this, that's why we are in a sad state and world laughs at us.

      Delete
  2. I did not understand your Disneyland story here. Jumping lane illegally is wrong. But if someone files two GC one in EB2 and another EB3, even possibly EB1, nothing wrong, legally approved. If someone is qualified enough to find multiple employers can switch jobs, can work hard, take some personal pain in the beginning, that is that person's ability and high skill in demand. I am proud of my fellow countrymen, small percentage Desis could be wrong or exception, but majority great.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree with you. But, you see EB2 was NOT designed to be abused via porting. In order to qualify for porting you need to satisfy some rules like incremental promotions in job title's in the last 5 years. Plus, change in salaries to a higher pay incrementally in the last 5 years which most likely will go hand in hand with the job title change. I highly doubt if most desi's get promotions incrementally for 5 years? you must be overly optimistic or totally dumb. Desi's who port know their integrity, they also hate other desi's who port. Y'all know what I'm talking about, lol.

      I studied here, waiting in line legally in EB2 for the past 12 + years, though I applied for a GC late, wasted a couple of years contemplating whether to stay here or not. But, that's a regret I'm living with, totally my fault.

      Delete
    2. I have full sympathy for your long wait. But the long wait is not any individual's fault, it is because too many applicants from India and the current law has a country cap.
      Coming to the EB2 porting, progressive experience is a vague thing. Does not matter much, those who wait say 7-8 years on EB3 and then switch job, most of them anyway get a higher designation and 15-20% raise. Unless you are telling me all Eb3 people are incompetent, which is wrong. Even ordinary graduates learn lot of new products and skills in 7-8 years to move to an Architect or senior role. If someone can not do that, I will be surprised. So nothing wrong if some EB3 guy changes jon after 5-6 years as an Architect and ports to EB2. Once you become 20+ years experienced, changing job is difficult but under 10-12 years experience it should be fairly easy for skilled hard working guys.
      I am personally MS from US, PhD drop out, waited long for GC, but can honestly say that I have seen people directly from India with 10 years experience is in high demand, because they learned skills on job. I would suggest try to do PhD and have done EB1.
      Most people are getting GC in EB1 category these days, see the stats. MS from US is a useless thing, both career wise and GC wise.

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    3. I don't blame people waiting forever jumping lines. But, i'm a little frustrated that I have to pay the price of waiting longer because of porting.

      See, majority of them don't qualify for EB2 to begin with. Since rule's allow them to jump after 5 years of progressive experience a lot of them chose to port. How many genuinely qualified for this rule of progressive experience? Let's agree most of them don't qualify for this, and fake it. They may be more skilled than you, and I have ever been. But, then what is the point of EB2? We might as well merge the categories which is what is the case now unofficially

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  3. Based on the pending 485s for EB3 for overall, priority dates may leap over EB2 in next bulletin. EB3 India may even advance couple of years in next 3 or 4 months...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Feeling good by reading your comment. is this going to happen?

      In that case, I am one of the person who ported EB3 to EB2, if EB3 become current, Can I use EB3 to apply 485?

      Delete
    2. You need to port back to EB3. Many Chinese nationals are downgrading to EB3 from EB2 because their EB3 is better than EB2.

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    3. Even if petition is ported to EB2 from EB3, approved EB3 140 should be valid unless it is withdrwan?
      Ambals please clarify if EB3 become current, we can use approved EB3 140 petition to apply 485 even though it is ported to EB2?

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    4. Once you done porting from Eb3 to Eb2, you will not have eb3 140.

      Delete
  4. What's the porting process? New PERM?

    ReplyDelete
  5. The green card numbers show something interesting, which I think, everyone already knows.
    EB1 India got more than 13k green cards. But here is the interesting part, they got 2k green cards extra. In reality, EB3 India should have gotten 8600 green cards last year. But due to the sudden last movements in VBs, EB1 I benefited due to the spill over. Now the demand this year has been anemic for EB3 ROW, I am guessing EB3 I should get close to 10k green cards. And this time, CO can't give excuse of not responding to RFEs etc. This would mean, EB3 I will start advancing rapidly. If I had a PD between aug 2009 to aug 2011, I would rather sit in EB3 I queue. Eb2 is not going to get any EB1 SOs, nor, is it going to get any ROW SOs, this is based on the trend over the last few years.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Dear Ambals,
    Thanks for all the insights. Would you happen to know when we can expect nov 2009 (EB2) to become current? Now that EB-3 is moving faster should I think of applying separately under EB-3? Any thoughts will be much appreciated. Thank you for your time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please check this -- https://www.murthy.com/2018/03/28/april-2018-visa-bulletin-check-cause-relatively-quick-priority-date-movements/

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  7. Hi Ambals, any idea when EB3 India May 2015 will be current.
    As the predictions say that EB3 India will move quicker, any chance it will reach 2015 in the next couple of years?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Its too early to predict for EB3 India for May 2015 PD. There are good chances for quick movement of EB3 somewhere in 2010 this year. If so happens, there will be a lot of line switching/porting of EB2/EB3. So, both may stabilize somewhere in 2009 this year, and next FY onwards there should be some organized movement of PD, I guess...

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  8. per country limit gone? any updates?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nothing will happen in this country. We have to be stuck until we retire or die. It is just a waste of time to even think about it.

      Delete
  9. Came to US at 23, went to school for a master degree program, now almost 36. Life is stagnant, ageing parents, unable to buy stuff for a home here like a normal family. All because moving, change of projects make it as much complicated, constantly worried about losing a project/contract. Constantly worried about what the next step should be..life in US was mean't for dreams, potential to take us to new heights, whatver happend to that spirit?

    Life is so short, the visa to live on this planet will expire in about 24 years for me, any one care to live life after 65? creaking bone's, bed sores! I'd rather chekout when i'm healthy!

    {explitive} everything!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I got my GC at age of 38. You are doing better. Stop thinking about what will happen after 20 years, focus on next 3 years.

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  10. Mr. Oppenheim expects the EB2 India category to reach an early-2009 cutoff date before the end of FY18 - so best case march 2009? lol

    ReplyDelete
  11. I hope all this wait for EB2/3 folks just makes us stronger and better appreciate the goal (GC and UCS) when we reach it. In a way we are investing in our kids futures by enduring through the long immigration wait times. Let's make the best of it, we are still working in a great country with ample opprtunities to expand our skill set. Job portability (lack of) is a big issue in career progression but nothing can stop us from working doubly hard and enhancing our knowledge. In future, which ever country we end up in, our skills and knowledge should be able to better serve us. While doing all we can, let's hope we also have some fun.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. USA is great at this point of time. But it could be possible that China or some other country is the go to country 30 years from now. Lets not say we are doing it for our kids. More likely than not, we are doing it for ourselves.

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  12. I am coming to a crisp conclusion that wait for GC is not worth it especially for persons like me with 10 year old kid. PD is Nov-2013 and based GC in 15-20 years. But that would mean my daughter needs to be on her own once she is 21 years (and not on H4). I had an European passport. Did not realize at the time of moving that GC application depends on place of birth rather than citizenship. I am not aware what American dreams people are talking about!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. American dreams of your employer. He can pay guys like you the bare minimum and earn big bucks.

      Delete
  13. Each year more than 85k (65k regular + 20K US advanced degree) people get H1B visa. Lets assume Indians account for 70% (59,500 applicants) of these H1B visa.

    Let us also assume that 60% of 59,500 apply for green card under eB2 and EB3 category that comes to 35,700 applicants each year.

    Just like last year, if India EB2 and EB3 gets a combined 8k green cards, then it takes 4 years to clear one year worth of GC applicants.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At times like numbers show approximately 8K GCs are filed in a single month alone! lol

      we need at least 20K allocated to EB2 alone per year to clear each year backlogged.

      I'm clueless how you arrived at 8K clearing 4 years in a single shot? This runs deeper than you can imagine~!

      Delete
  14. my first post here..can anyone comment if CapGemini is a good copany to work for on H1B?

    Thanks in advance

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you are going for FT, forget about it.. You can work as a contractor if you have enough years of extension.

      Delete
    2. Ok, can you kindly reason out why? I have about 10 years working in US alone, and 1-2 years in India. I went to school here for Masters on F1 too.

      The whole reason behind converting to a bigger consulting firm is to have a little more stability with projects, etc.

      Delete
    3. This is not right time to go for Capgemini and WITCH companies as USCIS denying H1-b applications left and right. So try to avoid for now.

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    4. It is. No discrimination. Paid on par. Not hiring H1’s these days.

      Delete
  15. Any thoughts on when the Nov 2010 PD EB2 and EB3 will become current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EAD/AP in Dec 2019, GC in Jun 2021.

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    2. eb2 will cross 2010 May in April 2019

      Delete
  16. Based on looking at the backlog published on March 1st for the updates as of Jan 2018. It appears that most probable EB3 could possibly move couple of years in next few bulletins or atleast by end of the year and would be ahead of Eb2 as EB3 backlog appears to be minimal. EB2 movement could be by one or two weeks only as the backlog is heavy for EB2 till mid 2009.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. But EB2 backlog will eventually reduce and move in par with EB3 when porters(which is significant for 2009) decide to get their GC through EB3. Though the clarity will be less for CO intially but due to less demand from EB2 he will be moving EB2 INDIA dates as well.

      Delete
  17. Well, movement on EB2I or EB3I is good for both categories. If EB3I moves it is surely good for all waiting I485 filers who lost hope probably! Secondly, EB2I folks need look back anymore to see who is lining up again in their category due to reduced porting! If EB2I moves then visas that cannot be allocated or processed for EB3I in this FY2018 can be consumed by pending EB2I I485 filers. Blessings for all!

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  18. Why did they move filing date for EB-2 to April 1st if they dont use it for I485 filing ? Any idea ?

    ReplyDelete
  19. April 2018 demand data looks too less to be true. Is that correct?

    ReplyDelete
  20. 485 Pending Inventory released:
    https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment-based_I-485_Pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_April_2018.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  21. Ambals, please give your assessment on the latest 485 Inventory released for EB

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  22. The new inventory is "Employment-Based I-485 Inventory pending at the Service Centers as of April 2018" whereas the January inventory was from "Service Centers and Field Offices as of January 2018". So you cannot compare those two.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. OK. Thanks for the clarification

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    2. Are you sure Field Offices are included? The report says "Service Centers" only for both Jan & Apr reports.

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    3. Look at the heading on both the reports:
      1) All Employment-Based I-485 Inventory pending at the Service Centers and Field Offices as of January 2018

      2) All Employment-Based I-485 Inventory pending at the Service Centers as of April 2018

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    4. But the numbers for Jan 2018 and Apr 2018 are very close, not a big difference.

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  23. Any idea when we can file 485 for Nov 2011 EB2

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. May be never until you die.

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    2. that day i will dance naked on the street.

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  24. Any chance DF chart moves to Sep-2009 by this year end ? From Apr 1st to Sep 2009 I see 3000 people ahead of me.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. the date is around mid dec 2008 for now in may-18. You will have around 10k people ahead of you including EB3 porters. You will get GC in 3 yrs or so and hopefully an EAD in next 1.5yrs. I am on same boat and things are getting from bad to worse each other.

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    2. Thanks! I dont have EAD. Any hope to get based on DF chart? I see it is not used for long, but a sudden forward movement kindled a hope in me...

      Delete
  25. I'm curious too if anyone has a ball park date for my PD of Jan 2011? I know i'm being stupid, but you know this is what happens with a 8-10 year wait times..

    ReplyDelete
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    1. lol..awesome I'm going to be a little more optmistic, and say 2020 or max 2021 EAD

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    2. no lol and false hopes.. i am dead serious... remember the retro is exponential.

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  26. Can you please think about provinding a worst case, and best case scenario's for the coming fiscal year please? we are 3 months from a new cycle. I'm seeing EB1 impacted with all they new immigration checks, this may yield a slightly higher spill over numbers than the last 36 months.

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  27. wohoooo EB-2 India moved 4 days this bulletin! Wow!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. so thats 96 hours... soon visa bulletin will get published in hours instead of days and months LOL

      Delete
  28. Next month EB2 India will move by half an hour.. lol.....

    ReplyDelete
  29. If we notice the predictions that are shared at the beginning of the year by Charlie Opp then those predictions more or less hold. One can look back 2-3 years and validate if the predictions given around January of a given year held true for the rest of the year.
    Keeping this pattern in mind, it seems that the eb3 dates, atleast, may move into the later part of 2009 at the least.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Experts My EB3 Priority Data is Dec 2009, Is it good idea to take up full time with client at this point or wait for one more year, suggestions are really appreciated?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm in the same boat..but EB2 Jan 2011, I'm in the process of converting to a client. The reason being, the prior employer(s) cannot revoke an approved I-140, if the approval was greater than a period of 6 months.

      You can always file an I-485 with your prior employer, when your priority date is current, and if your prior employer is willing to take you back.

      You will miss 100% of the chances you don't take. I'm going ahead with the motto that life is good, nothing drastic can happen that cannot be corrected, enjoy the journey

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    2. Don't think and wait for your GC. yuo should take up opportunities that will make you happy otherwise you will feel miserable. Business is becoming more global and you can always go to another country or back to India. Great things are happening in India and will become better. my 2c the GC should not stop you from taking the new opportunity. Just make sure to negotiate up front that the new company file for your GC also and keep the same priority date.

      Delete