According to this, there are about 22,536 EB2 India I-485 applications pending who have priority date of 31-Aug-07 or earlier. It also says 57,119 EB3 India applications are pending for the same time.
Assuming that the data is correct, it shows, roughly about 1500 applicants have "upgraded" from EB3 to EB2. This is a good sign since USCIS thought the number to be very high.
Earlier, USCIS had announced that there might be 12000 or more green cards, available to be given to EB2-India and EB2-China applicants, from the unused (less demand) EB1 categories. Last year, EB2-India category got about 20000 without any spillover from EB1 category. Assuming EB2 India will get about 30000 this year, the dates are expected to move fast the next 3 visa bulletins for this fiscal year.
My estimate is that, EB2 India dates will move to 1-Feb-07 in July 2011 visa bulletin, 1-May-07 in August 2011 visa bulletin and 1-Aug-07 in September 2011 visa bulletin.
Caution is to be taken while assuming the correctness of the data. I can understand the decrease in EB3 India numbers in few years, but cannot understand the increase in number for 2006 and 2007. Also, the predictions are mainly based out of 2 -- one is the availability of 30000 data and the "upgrade" number. Another factor to consider will be the number of dependents to be added to the data as and when the applicant's priority date becomes current.
As for EB3 India, we can expect around 2800 Green Cards to be given every year, unless there is a law change.
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