June 2021 Visa Bulletin Analysis for EB2 and EB3 India

June Visa Bulletin is available now. 

Final Action Dates: [1]

EB2 India - 01 DEC 10

EB3 India - 01 NOV 11

USCIS decided not to use the filing dates in June 2021 Visa Bulletin.  So, 

Filing Dates: [2]

EB2 India - 01 DEC 10

EB3 India - 01 NOV 11

Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 262,000 according to the Annual Numerical lists provided. [3] 

In FY 2019, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,908 and EB3 India was 5,048. In FY 2020, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,599 and EB3 India was 3,174. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [4]

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, for EB3 India, there is no data for 2010. For EB2 India, there are 10,727 I-485 applications pending between 01 JUL 09 and 30 APR 2010. [5]

Predictions:

The USCIS decided to use the Final Action Dates as filing dates for Jan 2021. That continues from Feb 2021 Visa Bulletin and is expected to continue this Fiscal Year till Sept 2021 Visa Bulletin.

The dates have moved 4 months for EB2 India and 9 months for EB3 India. Hopefully, it will keep moving at this rate till Sept Visa Bulletin.

Mr. Charles Oppenheim has been hosting "Chats with Charlie" on Youtube Live. You can see videos here - https://www.youtube.com/user/TravelGov/videos - Couple of interesting points this time:

1. He mentioned that all the Employment Based numbers (262,000) might not be used this Fiscal Year because of processing delays due to COVID.

2. He is expecting the FY 2022 Employment Based limit to be 290,000 because of non-usage from Family Based this Fiscal Year.

Next Steps:

EB3 India dates are still favorable than EB2 India dates. You should talk to your immigration lawyer, if "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3 is an option for you.

Meanwhile,  if you are waiting for your date to become current, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.

Data Sources:

[1] June 2021 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-june-2021.html

[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

[3] Annual Numerical Limits - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WEB_Annual_Numerical_Limits-FY2021.pdf

[4] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2020AnnualReport/FY20AnnualReport-TableV.pdf

[5] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18

[6] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf

May 2021 Visa Bulletin and Analysis for EB2 and EB3 India

May Visa Bulletin is available now. 

Final Action Dates: [1]

EB2 India - 01 AUG 10

EB3 India - 01 FEB 11

USCIS decided not to use the filing dates in May 2021 Visa Bulletin.  So, 

Filing Dates: [2]

EB2 India - 01 AUG 10

EB3 India - 01 FEB 11 

Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 262,000 according to the Annual Numerical lists provided. [3] 

In FY 2019, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,908 and EB3 India was 5,048. In FY 2020, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,599 and EB3 India was 3,174. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [4]

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, for EB3 India, there is no data for 2010. For EB2 India, there are 10,727 I-485 applications pending between 01 JUL 09 and 30 APR 2010. [5]

Predictions:

The USCIS decided to use the Final Action Dates as filing dates for Jan 2021. That continues from Feb, 2021 Visa Bulletin and is expected to continue this Fiscal Year till Sept 2021 Visa Bulletin.

Expectation was that the dates would start moving from June. But, looks like DOS is moving the dates earlier. This brings good news for many that the dates have moved 3 months for EB2 India and 5 months for EB3 India. Hopefully, it will keep moving at this rate till Sept Visa Bulletin.

You can check out our predictions for this fiscal year in the previous post.

Mr. Charles Oppenheim has been kind to host May Visa Bulletin questions on Youtube Live. In summary, he is expecting final action dates to reach 15 MAY 11 for EB2 India and 01 JAN 15 for EB3 India by September 2021 Visa Bulletin (October 2020 Visa Bulletin filing action dates). He says EB1 to EB2 to spillover is already happening. He also said the dates will move atleast 3 months for EB2 India and 5 months for EB3 India for June 2021 Visa Bulletin. He mentioned, he might have to slow down the space in July Visa Bulletin based on numbers and EB2 to EB3 downgrade. You can see the full interview here - https://www.youtube.com/user/TravelGov/videos

Next Steps:

EB3 India dates are still favorable than EB2 India dates. You should talk to your immigration lawyer, if "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3 is an option for you.

Meanwhile,  if you are waiting for your date to become current, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.

Data Sources:

[1] May 2021 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-may-2021.html

[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

[3] Annual Numerical Limits - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WEB_Annual_Numerical_Limits-FY2021.pdf

[4] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2020AnnualReport/FY20AnnualReport-TableV.pdf

[5] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18

[6] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf

EB2 India and EB3 India - how far will the dates move ?

Common question is how far will the dates move by September 2021 Visa Bulletin ?

Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 262,000 according to the Annual Numerical lists provided. [3] 

EB2 India:

EB2 India date was 08 JUL 09 according to September 2020 Visa Bulletin dates in data source [1].

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018 , for EB2 India, there are 6,050 I-485 applications pending between 01 JUL 09 and 31 DEC 2009. [5]

According to I-140 approved petitions list [7],  For EB2 India:

  FY 2009 -  6,674 

  FY 2010 - 15,313 

  FY 2011 - 22,286

Assuming these numbers are correct and there is no porting between EB2 to EB3 for FY 2009 and 2010 priority dates, there are 6,050 (according to I-485 inventory data) + 15, 313 (according to I-140 data) + 15, 313 (assuming one dependent per I-140 applicant) = 36,676 Immigrant Visas are needed for EB2 India to move to 01 JAN 2011.

According to FY 2021 annual numerical limits link in [3], 74,932 will be given for EB2 and in that 5,245 is guaranteed for EB2 India. In FY 2020, the number of green cards given for EB2 was 43,127 in that EB2 India was 2,599, according to link in [4]. Hence, all other countries in EB2 got 43,127 - 2,599 = 40,528. Assuming same is true for this year, 74,932 - 40, 528 = 34,404 will be the spill over number for EB2 India.

EB3 India:

EB3 India date was 01 OCT 09 according to September 2020 Visa Bulletin dates in data source [1].

According to I-140 approved petitions list [7],  For EB3 India:

  FY 2009 -  4,422 

  FY 2010 - 6,682 

  FY 2011 - 6,929

  FY 2012 - 4,110

Assuming these numbers are correct and there is no porting between EB2 to EB3, (4,422 / 4) + 6,682 + 6,929 + 4,110 (according to I-140 data) + (4,422 / 4) + 6,682 + 6,929 + 4,110 (assuming one dependent per I-140 applicant) = 37,653 Immigrant Visas are needed for EB3 India to move to 01 JAN 2013.

According to FY 2021 annual numerical limits link in [3], 74,932 will be given for EB3 and in that 5,245 is guaranteed for EB3 India. In FY 2020, the number of green cards given for EB3 was 42,821 in that EB3 India was 3,174, according to link in [4]. Hence, all other countries in EB3 got 42,821 - 3,174 = 39,647. Assuming same is true for this year, 74,932 - 39,647 = 35,285 will be the spill over number for EB3 India.

Unknown:

The data that we don't have is EB2 to EB3 "downgrades" and EB3 to EB2 "upgrades". If we have that, we can estimate the numbers better. Another big unknown is the spill over, we have given one possible scenario above. The actual number will depend on the number of applicants from other countries (ROW).

Data Sources:

[1] September 2020 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-september-2020.html

[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

[3] Annual Numerical Limits - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WEB_Annual_Numerical_Limits-FY2021.pdf

[4] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2020AnnualReport/FY20AnnualReport-TableV.pdf

[5] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18

[6] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf

[7] I-140 Approval petitions - https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/I140_by_class_country_FY09_19.pdf

April 2021 Visa Bulletin and Analysis for EB2 and EB3 India

April Visa Bulletin is available now. 

Final Action Dates: [1]

EB2 India - 01 MAY 10

EB3 India - 01 SEP 10

USCIS decided not to use the filing dates in April 2021 Visa Bulletin.  So, 

Filing Dates: [2]

EB2 India - 01 MAY 10

EB3 India - 01 SEP 10 

Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 262,000 according to the Annual Numerical lists provided. [3] 

In FY 2019, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,908 and EB3 India was 5,048. In FY 2020, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,599 and EB3 India was 3,174. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [4]

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, for EB3 India, there is no data for 2010. For EB2 India, there are 10,727 I-485 applications pending between 01 JUL 09 and 30 APR 2010. [5]

Predictions:

Official prediction has not been provided in this Visa Bulletin. 

The USCIS decided to use the Final Action Dates as filing dates for Jan 2021. That continues in Feb, Mar, Apr and is expected to continue this Fiscal Year till Sept 2021 Visa Bulletin.

Expectation was that the dates would start moving from June. But, looks like DOS is moving the dates earlier. This brings good news for many that the dates have moved more than months each for EB2 and EB3. Hopefully, it will keep moving at this rate till Sept Visa Bulletin.

Next Steps:

EB3 India dates are still favorable than EB2 India dates. You should talk to your immigration lawyer, if "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3 is an option for you.

Meanwhile,  if you are waiting for your date to become current, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.

Data Sources:

[1] April 2021 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-april-2021.html

[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

[3] Annual Numerical Limits - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WEB_Annual_Numerical_Limits-FY2021.pdf

[4] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2020AnnualReport/FY20AnnualReport-TableV.pdf

[5] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18

[6] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf

March 2021 Visa Bulletin and Analysis for EB2 and EB3 India

March Visa Bulletin was released today. 

Final Action Dates: [1]

EB2 India - 15 JAN 10

EB3 India - 01 JUL 10

USCIS decided not to use the filing dates in March 2021 Visa Bulletin.  So, 

Filing Dates: [2]

EB2 India - 15 JAN 10

EB3 India - 01 JUL 10

Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 262,000 according to the Annual Numerical lists provided. [3] 

In FY 2019, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,908 and EB3 India was 5,048. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [4]

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, for EB3 India, there is no data for 2010. For EB2 India, there are 6050 I-485 applications pending for July to December of 2009. [5]

Predictions:

Official prediction has not been provided in this Visa Bulletin. But, the last Visa bulletin said EB2 India can move up to two weeks and EB3 India can move up to three weeks.

The USCIS decided to use the Final Action Dates as filing dates for Jan 2021. That continues in Feb, Mar and is expected to continue this Fiscal Year till Sept 2021 Visa Bulletin.

Expectation was that the dates would start moving from June. But, looks like DOS is moving the dates earlier. This brings good news for many that the dates have moved 3 months each for EB2 and EB3. Hopefully, it will keep moving at this rate for Apr to Sept Visa Bulletins.

Next Steps:

EB3 India dates are still favorable than EB2 India dates. You should talk to your immigration lawyer, if "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3 is an option for you.

Meanwhile,  if you are waiting for your date to become current, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.

Data Sources:

[1] March 2021 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-march-2021.html

[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

[3] Annual Numerical Limits - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WEB_Annual_Numerical_Limits-FY2021.pdf

[4] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf

[5] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18

[6] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf

February 2021 Visa Bulletin and Analysis for EB2 and EB3 India

 February 2021 Visa Bulletin was released today. 

Final Action Dates: [1]

EB2 India - 12 OCT 09

EB3 India - 01 APR 10

USCIS decided not to use the filing dates in February 2021 Visa Bulletin.  So, 

Filing Dates: [2]

EB2 India - 12 OCT 09

EB3 India - 01 APR 10

Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 262,000 according to the Annual Numerical lists provided. [3] 

In FY 2019, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,908 and EB3 India was 5,048. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [4]

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, for EB3 India, there is no data for 2010. For EB2 India, there are 6050 I-485 applications pending for July to December of 2009. [5]

Predictions:

Official prediction has been provided in this Visa bulletin. It says, EB2 India can move up to two weeks and EB3 India can move up to three weeks.

The USCIS decided to use the Final Action Dates as filing dates for Jan 2021. That continues in Feb 2021 and is expected to continue this Fiscal Year till Sept 2021 Visa Bulletin.

Guess is that, at-least the Final action dates will keep moving forward at this rate and then there will be some big movements in last quarter (July, August, September Visa Bulletins).

Next Steps:

EB3 India dates are still favorable than EB2 India dates. You should talk to your immigration lawyer, if "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3 is an option for you.

Meanwhile,  if you are waiting for your date to become current, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.

Data Sources:

[1] February 2021 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-february-2021.html

[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

[3] Annual Numerical Limits - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WEB_Annual_Numerical_Limits-FY2021.pdf

[4] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf

[5] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18

[6] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf

January 2021 Visa Bulletin and Analysis for EB2 and EB3 India

January 2021 Visa Bulletin was released today. 

Final Action Dates: [1]

EB2 India - 08 OCT 09

EB3 India - 22 MAR 10

USCIS decided not to use the filing dates in January 2021 Visa Bulletin.  So, 

Filing Dates: [2]

EB2 India - 08 OCT 09

EB3 India - 22 MAR 10

Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 261,500 according to the October 2020 visa bulletin. 

In FY 2019, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,908 and EB3 India was 5,048. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [3]

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, for EB3 India, there is no data for 2010. For EB2 India, there are 6050 I-485 applications pending for July to December of 2009. [4]

Predictions:

Official prediction is not provided in this Visa bulletin.

As expected, the USCIS decided to use the Final Action Dates as filing dates for Jan 2021.

Guess is that, at-least the Final action dates will keep moving forward at this rate and then there will be some big movements in last quarter (July, August, September Visa Bulletins).

Next Steps:

EB3 India dates are still favorable than EB2 India dates. You should talk to your immigration lawyer, if "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3 is an option for you.

If you are EB2 India priority date is between 08 OCT 09 and 14 MAY 11, and have not filed your I-485, you have another 8 days to file it before the Jan 2021 Visa Bulletin kicks in. Same is true for EB3 India priority dates between 22 MAR 10 and 31 DEC 13.

Meanwhile,  if you are waiting for your date to become current, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.

Data Sources:

[1] January 2021 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-january-2021.html

[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

[3] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf

[4] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18

[5] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf

December 2020 Visa Bulletin and analysis for EB2 and EB3 India

December 2020 Visa Bulletin was released yesterday. Big change is EB3 India filing date moved back one year.

Final Action Dates: [1]

EB2 India - 01 OCT 09

EB3 India - 15 MAR 10

USCIS agreed to use date of filing dates in visa bulletin. 

Filing Dates: [2]

EB2 India - 15 MAY 11

EB3 India - 01 JAN 14 

Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 261,500 according to the October 2020 visa bulletin. 

In FY 2019, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,908 and EB3 India was 5,048. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [3]

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, for EB3 India, there is no data for 2010. For EB2 India, there are 6050 I-485 applications pending for July to December of 2009. [4]

Predictions:

There are no prediction in this Visa bulletin.

It is a surprise that the EB3 India date retrogressed one year, which tells that they got lot more EB3 India applications than they expected. If they get more EB2 India applications, it might follow the same route.

Guess is that, at least the Final action dates will keep moving forward at this rate and then there will be some big movements in last quarter (July, August, September Visa Bulletins).

Next Steps:

EB3 India dates are still favorable than EB2 India dates. If you are interested, you should talk to your immigration lawyer about "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3.

EB3 India retrogression in filing date might mean, they might do the same for EB2. So, if you are current and still waiting to file I-485, it is better to do it right away.

Meanwhile,  if you are waiting for your date to become current, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.

Data Sources:

[1] December 2020 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-december-2020.html

[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

[3] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf

[4] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18

[5] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf

November 2020 Visa Bulletin and analysis for EB2 and EB3 India

November 2020 Visa Bulletin was released today after a long wait. The dates didn't change for filing dates. It moved a little for final action dates.

Final Action Dates: [1]

EB2 India - 22 SEP 09

EB3 India - 01 MAR 10

USCIS agreed to use date of filing dates in visa bulletin. 

Filing Dates: [2]

EB2 India - 15 MAY 11

EB3 India - 01 JAN 15 

Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 261,500 according to the October 2020 visa bulletin. 

In FY 2019, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,908 and EB3 India was 5,048. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [3]

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, for EB3 India, there is no data for 2010. For EB2 India, there are 6050 I-485 applications pending for July to December of 2009. [4]

Prediction:

There are no prediction in this Visa bulletin, while last one says "Rapid forward movement" for EB3 and EB2 India priority dates. Probably DOS is trying to get an estimate on EB2 to EB3 based on this month's data to get a better understanding.

Hoping, filing date might stay the same or move forward at next couple of visa bulletins; and Final action dates will keep moving forward at this rate till last quarter.

EB2 India Prediction = 74,789 (EB2 Total Projection) - 5,235 (EB2 China Projection) - 5,235 (EB2 South Korea Projection) - 40,000 (EB2 ROW Projection) = 24,319

EB3 India Prediction = 74,789 (EB3 Total Projection) - 5,235 (EB3 China Projection) - 5,235 (EB3 South Korea Projection) - 5,235 (EB3 Mexico Projection) - 5,235 (EB3 Philippines Projection) - 40,000 (EB3 ROW Projection) = 13,849

Next Steps:

EB3 India dates are favorable now than EB2 India dates. This means the days of "upgrading" your petition from EB3 to EB2 are not favorable at this point. Now, it is time to talk to your immigration lawyers are about "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3.

The good news is, the dates are moving for final action dates and filing dates are still the same. So, if you are still deciding whether you want to "downgrade", you got another month to decide on that !

Meanwhile,  if you are waiting for I-485, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.

Data Sources:

[1] November 2020 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-november-2020.html

[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

[3] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf

[4] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18

[5] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf

Spillover immigrant visas to EB2 India and EB3 India

We know that FY 2020 had 156,500 employment based green card (immigrant visas) from [1]. We also know that 261,500 visas are available for FY 2021 from [2]. Based on this, we are projecting the FY 2021 per category numbers in the above table. We know the FY 2019 actual green cards given for each category from [3].

By the spillover rule, unused visas in EB4 and EB5, will go to EB1. Unused visas from EB1 will go to EB2. Unused from EB2 will go to EB3. 

Let assume, for all the categories except, EB2 India and EB3 India, we will have the same usage as FY2019 (latest year for which data is available to us). 

Given all of this, lets do some calculations for FY2021 projections:

EB4 = 18,567 (FY 2021 availability projection) - 10,088 (FY 2019 actual usage) = 8,479

EB5 = 18,566 (FY 2021 availability projection) - 9,478  (FY 2019 actual usage) = 9,088

EB1 = 74,789(FY 2021 availability projection)  - 40,092  (FY 2019 actual usage) = 34,697

Then, EB2 India will be = 74,789 + 2,908 (FY 2019 EB2 India) + 8,479 (EB1 Spillover) + 9,088 (EB5 Spillover) + 34,697 (EB1 spillover) - 40,052 (FY 2019 EB2 Total) = 89,909

By same rule, EB3 India will be = 74,789 + 5,083 (FY 2019 EB3 India) - 40,876 (FY 2019 EB3 Total) = 38,996

It will be a miracle if this happens !!! The above scenario is more for people looking for more positive news.

From Table 2 in [4], we know that, EB1, EB4 and EB5 have backlog more than the available numbers for FY2021. If the processing happens properly, all of the visas available for these categories will be used up. That means, no spill over for EB2. Either way, there is no spill over for EB3 as EB2 is severly backlogged. 

The spill over for EB2 India in particular will be determined by EB2 ROW usage. EB3 India spill over will be determined EB3 ROW usage.

-----

[1] FY 2020 Numerical Limits - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Annual%20%20Numerical%20%20Limits%20-%20FY2020.pdf

[2] October 2020 Visa Bulletin - https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-october-2020.html

[3] FY 2019 Actual - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf

[4] Cato research - https://www.cato.org/publications/immigration-research-policy-brief/backlog-skilled-immigrants-tops-1-million-over

"To or not to" - downgrade from EB2 to EB3 India application

Lot of folks are confused whether they want to downgrade their application or not. It is a tough decision based on whether you need EAD right away or not. Below are some scenarios that might give you an idea on what might happen. 

Number of Green Cards issued over the last 10 years taken from various Visa Statistics reports in [1]:

As you can see, the maximum number of green cards issued was 23,997 in FY 2011 for EB2 India. The minimum in the last 10 years was 2,908. Every year, EB2 India gets a minimum of 2,800 per law. That number is out of 140,000. According to [3], DOS has estimated 261,500 to be given out this year under Employment Based immigrant visa category. So, for EB2 India, it will be minimum 5,230. Same for EB3 India as well.

I-485 pending inventory taken from [2]:

EB2 India date was 08-JUL-09 according to September Visa Bulletin [4].

Assuming, the above inventory data is correct and all the applicants before July have been cleared, the EB2 India final action date should move to 15-DEC-09 to get to 5,230 number. Assuming, about 12,000 folks move to EB3, the date can even move to 08-JUL-12, to get to 23,977. Those might be the worst and best case movements this FY.  I believe somewhere in the middle is a good possibility. Lot of unknowns here - what will be the spill over to EB2 India, how many folks move from EB2 to EB3, how many applicants are still pending before 08-Jul-09. Lot of assumptions.

You can keep a watch on visa bulletin movements. Then, depending on your priority date, and depending on what you believe will happen, you can decide whether you want to downgrade your application or not. As always, please do consult an immigration lawyer about your specific situation.

--

[1] - Visa Statistics reports - https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics.html

[2] - I-485 pending inventory - https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18

[3] - October 2020 Visa Bulletin - https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-october-2020.html

[4] - September 2020 Visa Bulletin - https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-september-2020.html

October 2020 visa bulletin numbers and analysis for EB2 and EB3 India

October 2020 Visa Bulletin was released today after a long wait. There is lot of good news for EB2 India and EB3 India applicants who are waiting for their Green Card.

Final Action Dates: [1]

EB2 India - 01 SEP 09

EB3 India - 15 JAN 10

After a bit of a drama today, USCIS agreed to use date of filing dates in visa bulletin. 

Filing Dates: [2]

EB2 India - 15 MAY 11

EB3 India - 01 JAN 15 

Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 261,500 according to the visa bulletin. 

In FY 2019, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,908 and EB3 India was 5,048. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [3]

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, for EB3 India, there is no data for 2010. For EB2 India, there are 6050 I-485 applications pending for July to December of 2009. [4]

Prediction:

Visa bulletin says "Rapid forward movement" for EB3 and EB2 India priority dates.

Given that 261,500 is expected in place of 140,000, we can expect almost double the immigrant visas to be given out this year. Assuming, 6,050 can be given out to EB2 India, then we can expect the Sept 2021 visa bulletin to have a final action date of 01-JAN-10. The unknown factors here are spill over for EB2 India and number of applicants downgrading to EB3. That will change the date.

We cannot do such a prediction for EB3 India as the applicants data by priority date is not available to us. But, what we do know is there significantly less number of applicants waiting for final priority dates as of November 2019 under EB3. There were 284,207 applicants pending under EB2 India, while there were only 66,362 under EB3 India. [5]

Date of filing is completely under DOS and USCIS discretion. They can make it "current" if they want to. In fact, doing that will help the USCIS get the much need cash through application fees. It will also help the applicants get their EAD. Win-win situation for both.

Next Steps:
EB3 India dates are favorable now than EB2 India dates. This means the days of "upgrading" your petition from EB3 to EB2 are not favorable at this point. Now, it is time to talk to your immigration lawyers are about "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3.

Meanwhile,  if you are waiting for I-485, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.

Data Sources:

[1] October 2020 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-october-2020.html

[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

[3] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf

[4] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18

[5] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf

March 2019 visa bulletin numbers for EB2 and EB3 India

March 2019 Visa Bulletin was released earlier this month. The EB2 India priority date cutoff  for getting Green Card should is 09 APR 09. The EB3 India date is 22 MAY 09. [1]. For foreseeable future, EB3 India dates are going to be better than EB2 India date. EB2 India date moved by 3 days from last Visa Bulletin while EB3 India date moved by one month. According to the prediction provided in Visa Bulletin last month, EB3 India can move a max of 3 months and EB2 India a max of one week.

Estimated 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year (FY 2019) -- between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.

In FY 2018, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 4,096 and EB3 India was 6,050. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [2].

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, For EB3 India, there is no data for 2009. For EB2 India, there are 4457 I-485s pending for Apr, May, June and July of 2009. [3]. There is no update on I-485 inventory after July 2018. We are keenly watching for an update.

Regarding the filing dates, USCIS has a logic, which we have no visibility to. They can technically open up the Filing dates to later dates. This will give opportunity to file I-485 and more importantly get the EAD and give the much needed -- less hassle job portability. For the first time, USCIS accepted "DATES FOR FILING OF EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA APPLICATIONS"  chart in October 2018 Visa Bulletin. They continued the practice till Jan 2019 Visa Bulletin. But from last month onwards, they decided to move back to "Final Action Dates" chart. [4].

Given all of the above information, the final action dates are following the pattern of China, in the sense, EB3 India dates are favorable now than EB2 India dates. This means the days of "upgrading" your petition from EB3 to EB2 are not favorable at this point. Now, it is time to talk to your immigration lawyers are about "downgrading" from EB3 to EB2.

Meanwhile,  if you are waiting for I-485, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.

Data Sources:
[1] March 2019 Visa Bulletin --https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-march-2019.html

[2] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2018AnnualReport/FY18AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf

[3] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.uscis.gov/greencard/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

[4] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

Feb 2019 Visa Bulletin numbers

Feb 2019 Visa Bulletin was released earlier this month. The EB2 India dates for getting Green Card should be before 06 APR 09. The EB3 India date is at  22 APR 09. [1]. That is correct. For the first time, the EB3 India dates have crossed EB2 India dates. 

Estimated 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year (FY 2019) -- between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.

In FY 2018, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 4,096 and EB3 India was 6,050. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [2].

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, For EB3 India, there is no data for 2009. For EB2 India, there are 4457 I-485s pending for Apr, May, June and July of 2009. [3].

Regarding the filing dates, USCIS has a logic, which we have no visibility to. They can technically open up the Filing dates to latest dates. This will give opportunity to file I-485 and more importantly get the EAD and give the much needed -- less hassle job portability. For the first time, USCIS accepted "DATES FOR FILING OF EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA APPLICATIONS"  chart in in October 2018 Visa Bulletin. They continued the practice till Jan 2019 Visa Bulletin. But this month, they decided to use Final Action dates in place of Dates for Filing in Feb 2019 Visa Bulletin. [4]. Given this, if your priority date is before 01 APR 10 and if you have not filed I-485, you still have chance to file it by 31 Jan 19. Even if you are EB2 India, you can talk to you immigration lawyer and see if you can "downgrade" your application to EB3 India.

Feb 2019 Visa Bulletin has predictions for the coming months. It says final action dates will move upto one week at a time till May for EB2 India and upto three months for EB3 India.

Given all of the above information, the final action dates are following the pattern of China, in the sense EB3 India dates are favorable now than EB2 India dates. This means the days of "upgrading" your petition from EB3 to EB2 are not favorable at this point. Now, it is time to talk to your immigration lawyers are about "downgrading" from EB3 to EB2 !!!

Data Sources:
[1] Feb 2019 Visa Bulletin --https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-february-2019.html

[2] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2018AnnualReport/FY18AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf

[3] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.uscis.gov/greencard/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

[4] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

March 2018 EB2 and EB3 India Numbers

April 2018 Visa Bulletin was released yesterday. The EB2 India dates for getting Green Card should be before 22 DEC 08. The EB3 India date is at  01 FEB 08. [1]

Estimated 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018 -- under Employment Based Green Card category. [2]

In FY 2017, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,879 and EB3 India was 6,608. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [3]

According to latest inventory we have, as of Jan 2018, For EB3 India, there are 2050 I-485s pending for 2006 and 1767 for Jan to Aug 2007. For EB2 India, there are 7557 I-485s pending for 2008. [4]

Regarding the filing dates, USCIS has a logic, which we have no visibility to. They can technically open up the Filing dates to latest dates. This will give opportunity to file I-485 and more importantly get the EAD and give the much needed -- less hassle job portability.

Couple of new developments in this Visa Bulletin. One, there is a priority date for EB1 India, which is 01 JAN 12. It was current in last Visa Bulletin. Two, the priority date for EB3 India in the last Visa Bulletin was 01 JAN 07 and it jumped one year and one month to 01 FEB 08. First one is bad news, because it means there will be no spillover to EB2 from EB1. Second is a good news for EB3 India. Applicants with priority date before 01 FEB 08, who have been waiting long time will be able to file their I-485 and get EADs.

Given all this, the short term prediction is EB2 India, for final action dates, will move only at the same pace -- one week to a month per bulletin -- depending on spill over and porting. On the other hand, EB3 India should move much faster.  I surely didn't expect one year movement. But, DOS has done it. It is good for EB3 India applicants. The long term prediction is, EB3 India will match the dates of EB2 India. Then, porting will slow down. There is a chance, EB3 India will start getting ahead of EB2 India in priority dates. Then, like you see in traffic lines, people can jump from one lane to another depending on number of pending applications. How, the EB3 to EB2 is called "upgrade", there can be "downgrade" from EB2 to EB3. It has happened/is happening in EB China categories, we can expect the same in EB India categories as well.

Data Sources:
[1] April 2018 Visa Bulletin --https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-april-2018.html

[2] Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

[3] EB2 Numbers are taken from --https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2017AnnualReport/FY17AnnualReport%20-TableV.pdf

[4] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/Employment-based_I-485_pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_January_2018.pdf

EB2 and EB3 India Visa Bulletin Movements

October 2017 Visa Bulletin was released earlier this month. The first bulletin for FY 2018. The EB2 India dates for getting Green Card stands at 15 SEP 08. The EB3 India date is at 15 OCT 06. [1]

Estimated 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018 -- under Employment Based Green Card category. [2]

In FY 2016, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 3,930 and EB3 India was 4,583. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [3]

According to latest inventory we have, as of August 2017, For EB3 India, there are about 1600 I-485s pending for last 3 months of 2006 and 1879 for Jan to Aug 2007. For EB2 India, there are about 1400 I-485s pending for last 4 months of 2008. [4]

Regarding the filing dates, USCIS has a logic, which we have no visibility to. They can technically open up the Filing dates to latest dates. This will give opportunity to file I-485 and more importantly get the EAD and give the much needed -- less hassle job portability.

Given this, I think EB2 India, for final action dates, will move only at the same pace -- one week to a month per bulletin -- depending on spill over and porting. On the other hand, EB3 India should move much faster. Going by the inventory, and assuming 4000 Green Cards to be given, for the whole year -- till September 2018 visa bullein -- the EB3 India can move to 01 Sep 07. For EB2 India, if there is no porting and assuming 4000 GC to be given, it can move to 01 MAY 09. How much less than that, will depend on porting.

Data Sources:
[1] October 2017 Visa Bulletin --https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-october-2017.html

[2] Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

[3] EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

[4] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/EB_I_485_Pending_Inventory_August17.pdf

EB2 and EB3 India Latest Numbers

April 2017 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. The EB2 India dates for getting Green Card stands at 22 JUN 08. The EB3 India date is at 24 MAR 05.

Estimated 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2016 and 30 September 2017 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.

DOS also released the complete annual report for FY 2016. The EB2 India numbers from there are 3,930 and EB3 India number is 4,583.

Comparing this to the previous years, the number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2016 - 3,930
FY 2015 - 7,235
FY 2014 - 23,527
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

EB2 India receives 2,809 immigrant visas (Green Cards) every year. On the top of it, it receives spill over from EB1, EB4, EB5 and EB2 - ROW. Typically, unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case).

The numbers released confirms what was suspected all along. The spill over to EB2 India has almost vanished -- 3,930 Vs 2,809. Given the fact that, EB3 to EB2 porting is increasing and it consumes almost all of EB2 numbers, explains the very very slow movement of EB2 India number in each visa bulletin. Please note the availability of EB2 India Green Card was 23,527 in FY 2014 and only 3,930 in FY 2016.

Given this, I think EB2 India will move only at the same pace -- couple of weeks to a month per bulletin -- depending on spill over and porting. On the other hand, EB3 India might move little faster once it crosses 31 MAR 05. If the latest inventory we have as of october 2016, has to be believed, there are only 1729 I-485s pending for 2005. Hence, the faster movement expectation.

If this trend continues, the future for EB2 and EB3 India looks very gloomy. Law change is the only way to make it move forward faster.

Data Sources:

I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

April 2017 Visa Bulletin --https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2017/visa-bulletin-for-april-2017.html

Are we in the new phase for EB2 India ?

August Visa Bulletin was released earlier this month. The EB2 India dates for getting Green Card stands at 15 NOV 04. The EB3 India date is at 08 NOV 04. New Cut-off dates are introduced for EB1 China and India and that date is 01 JAN 10.

Estimated 140,300 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2015 and 30 September 2016 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.

The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2015 - 7,235
FY 2014 - 23,527
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

EB2 India receives 2,809 immigrant visas (Green Cards) every year. On the top of it, it receives spill over from EB1, EB4, EB5 and EB2 - ROW. Typically, unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case).

This year, by the very fact that, DOS has established a cut-off for EB1 India and EB1 China, tell us that EB4, EB5 and EB1 will not come to EB2. We also see from I-485 inventory that there is more demand for EB2 from other countries and more porting happening from EB3 India to EB2 India.

Given all this, it makes me wonder, if we are in a new phase for EB2 India. The spillover reducing on one side and porting from EB3 to EB2 increasing on the other side, makes it nearly impossible for the dates to move forward. In theory, all the 18,000+ EB3 India applicants can port to EB2 India. In theory, all available visas for EB2 India can be consumed by porting. In Practice, if this happens, then EB2 India dates can't move much further and, EB3 and EB2 India dates have to move hand-in-hand. Not a good situation, but it might be the reality ! We have to wait and watch to see if it is !


Data Sources:

I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

August Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-august-2016.html

What to expect in FY 2016 - EB2 India Priority Date Movement and Analysis

Estimated 140,300 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2015 and 30 September 2016 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.

Last few years EB2 India has received good amount of spill overs. Unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case). But, last year the number for EB2 India was relative less compares to the previous years.

The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2015 - 7,235
FY 2014 - 23,527
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

The number of visas available through spillovers on the top of the regular 2,809 visas available and number of applicants porting from EB3 India to EB2 India -- are the two factors that will decide the date movement at the end of every fiscal year. Let us see different scenarios for Sept 2016 visa bulletin EB2 India date.

Best Case Scenario:
The average over the last few years about 13,000. Assuming that number and assuming 4000 porting. Then, according to numbers in Jan 2016 I-485 pending inventory, the date will clear the inventory and move to 01 AUG 09.
Worst Case Scenario:
If there are only 7000 available visas and if there is 2500 porting between Jan and Aug, then, according to numbers in Jan 2016 I-485 pending inventory, the date will move to 01 JAN 09.
Most Likely Scenario:
According to me, the most likely scenario is 01 APR 09 -- assuming about 8,000 visas available and about 2000 porting between Jan and Aug.

Data Sources:
I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

January 2016 Visa Bulletin and Analysis

January 2016 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today.

EB2:

Cut-off dates for EB2 India moved from 01 JUN 07 to 01 FEB 08. EB2 China stayed at 01 FEB 12. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is the EB2 India is moving forward.

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 22 APR 04 to 15 MAY 04. EB3 China moved from 15 APR 12 to 01 JUL 12. EB3 Philippines moved from 01 AUG 07 to 01 NOV 07. For all other countries the date moved from 01 SEP 15 to 01 OCT 15.

Good news is there is forward movement for all countries.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was released in October. For EB2 India, there are 18,814 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. For EB3 India, it is 20,207 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date.

What is new ?:

From October visa bulletin, they introduced two different dates. The above dates you see reflect the cut-off date for getting Green Card. They have introduced a new chart of dates. If your priority date is before the cut-off date, then you can apply for I-485, EAD and AP.

More information is here  -- http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo#New Visa

EB2:

Adjustment of Status (AOS) filing cut off date for EB2 India is 01 JUL 09. For, EB2 China it is 01 JAN 13. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

EB3:

Adjustment of Status (AOS) filing cut off date for EB3 India is 01 JUL 05. For, EB3 China it is 01 OCT 13; For EB3 Philippines it is 01 JAN 10. For all other countries it is 01 JAN 16.

After this, they recently introduced another complexity to this whole puzzle. Now, you see this date on DOS visa bulletin and then, you have to go verify if the same chart is applicable or not on USCIS website. USCIS will determine according to its inventory, whether they want to introduce a new chart. That info can be filed here -- http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo 

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:

I am hoping EB3 India will keep moving forward 2 to 3 weeks, every visa bulletin.

For EB2 India:

What will happen will depends on DOS Strategy. From the looks of it, they are keeping the AOS date as it is and moving the Green Card date slowly forward. It will change based on EB3 to EB2 conversion.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

• General list can be found here - http://ambals.blogspot.com/2013/07/getting-ready-to-file-i-485.html 
• This blog post will help you, if you have not done vaccination - http://ambals.blogspot.com/2013/12/vaccination-record.html
• This blog post will help you, if you don't have your Birth Certificate or Marriage Certificate in place - http://ambals.blogspot.com/2013/06/affidavit-of-birth-along-with-i-485.html

The above links are for reference only. Please check with your lawyer and check the USCIS website for official latest list.

Final Notes:


I am still trying to wrap my head around why DOS has to introduce this chart and then USCIS has to decide whether this one or new one. Why not USCIS release it directly ? I don't have an answer.

This fiscal year has been very dramatic. From the time DOS introduced the new chart, with very high numbers and then retrogress back, even before October. Then, they decided, DOS will introduce it and USCIS will decide and introduce another chart. I am expecting more to come as they try new things to implement President's Executive Order. We will keep a watch.

For all EB2, EB3 India folks -- Unfortunately, if we want to be here, we all have to go through it. Yes, it is a tough long frustrating journey. Hang in there. It will get over soon.

Links:
You can see the official January 2016 Visa Bulletin here -http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-january-2016.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory