Tuesday, October 6, 2020

"To or not to" - downgrade from EB2 to EB3 India application

Lot of folks are confused whether they want to downgrade their application or not. It is a tough decision based on whether you need EAD right away or not. Below are some scenarios that might give you an idea on what might happen. 

Number of Green Cards issued over the last 10 years taken from various Visa Statistics reports in [1]:

As you can see, the maximum number of green cards issued was 23,997 in FY 2011 for EB2 India. The minimum in the last 10 years was 2,908. Every year, EB2 India gets a minimum of 2,800 per law. That number is out of 140,000. According to [3], DOS has estimated 261,500 to be given out this year under Employment Based immigrant visa category. So, for EB2 India, it will be minimum 5,230. Same for EB3 India as well.

I-485 pending inventory taken from [2]:


EB2 India date was 08-JUL-09 according to September Visa Bulletin [4].

Assuming, the above inventory data is correct and all the applicants before July have been cleared, the EB2 India final action date should move to 15-DEC-09 to get to 5,230 number. Assuming, about 12,000 folks move to EB3, the date can even move to 08-JUL-12, to get to 23,977. Those might be the worst and best case movements this FY.  I believe somewhere in the middle is a good possibility. Lot of unknowns here - what will be the spill over to EB2 India, how many folks move from EB2 to EB3, how many applicants are still pending before 08-Jul-09. Lot of assumptions.

You can keep a watch on visa bulletin movements. Then, depending on your priority date, and depending on what you believe will happen, you can decide whether you want to downgrade your application or not. As always, please do consult an immigration lawyer about your specific situation.

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[1] - Visa Statistics reports - https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics.html

[2] - I-485 pending inventory - https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18

[3] - October 2020 Visa Bulletin - https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-october-2020.html

[4] - September 2020 Visa Bulletin - https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-september-2020.html

17 comments:

  1. Thanks for your analysis

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  2. Did you consider family to most backlogged EB category spillover? Is that being considered in your 261,500 to be given out this year?

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    1. My understanding of FB to EB spillover is, it will go to all the countries. So, as first step, EB2 India every year has around 2,800. Now, it will have around 5,230. Then, based on spillover from EB1 and EB2 ROW - it can go as high as possible.

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    2. Yes hoping there is more spillover!

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    3. This is another perspective - https://www.happyschools.com/eb3-to-eb2-downgrade-rapid-forward-movement/

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  3. Hi Ambal,

    Could unused FB spillover be utilized for the most retrogressed EB category (EB2 India or EB3 India)? I imagine that there are about several thousand family spillover visas available from last year and if that's true wont we see massive movements in EB india category? For example if 100K is available from family spillover, then EB2 India and EB3 india will get 100K visas (50k each)?

    Also next year because of the tightening of h1b's we can expect lot of horizontal spillover from EB2 world to EB2 India and EB3 world to EB2 India. By all means, I see a lot of potential for EB India movement.

    Could you explain why your analysis is not so positive?

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    1. Horizontal spillover - sure. It is very possible that other countries don't use it and it will come to India.

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    2. " For example if 100K is available from family spillover, then EB2 India and EB3 india will get 100K visas (50k each)?" -- At this point, they are expecting 121,500 from family spillover to be available. As far as my understanding goes, all of that won't go to EB2 India and EB3 India. They will proportionately be available for all EB categories. If unused then, it will follow EB spill over rules. For example, I expect all the EB5 visas to be used, that won't go to EB1. Depending on how much of EB4 are unused and EB1 are unused, that will go to EB2 and eventually to EB2 India

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  4. “Assuming, about 12,000 folks move to EB3, the date can even move to 08-JUL-12, to get to 23,977.”. Can you plz elaborate on this? Are you speculating like 1,000 pending I-485 each month under EB2 to clear 2 years backlog until July 2012?

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    1. Thanks for confirming. Obviously it is speculation at this point. So, how EB2 India received unusually high number in 2014 (23,527). Trying to research. Can you please point me to the article or details?

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    2. Yes. It is a speculation. The reason FY 2014 got 23,527 is because of spillover. If you go to the Visa statistics link in [1] and then go to, FY 2014 report, then click on table V. You will see the numbers by country and categories.

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    3. That's excellent analysis from your friend. Thanks for sharing.

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  5. Thoughts around when EB2 India July reach Final Action Date? First time I am able to apply for EAD/AP which is great.

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  6. Hi, Thanks for the great analysis, what do you think of EB3 India FA date movement and projects, will it move ahead in 2021 assuming 25000 people move from EB2 to EB3, also when do you expect the EB2 best case of July 2012 to be reached, is it by Sep 2021 or in early 2021.

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  7. Hi, What do you project for EB3 movement assuming 25000 move from EB2 to EB3, also by when do you expect EB2 to reach July 2012(best case) , is it Sep 2021? Thanks for your great help!

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