October 2020 Visa Bulletin was released today after a long wait. There is lot of good news for EB2 India and EB3 India applicants who are waiting for their Green Card.
Final Action Dates: [1]
EB2 India - 01 SEP 09
EB3 India - 15 JAN 10
After a bit of a drama today, USCIS agreed to use date of filing dates in visa bulletin.
Filing Dates: [2]
EB2 India - 15 MAY 11
EB3 India - 01 JAN 15
Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 261,500 according to the visa bulletin.
In FY 2019, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,908 and EB3 India was 5,048. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [3]
According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, for EB3 India, there is no data for 2010. For EB2 India, there are 6050 I-485 applications pending for July to December of 2009. [4]
Prediction:
Visa bulletin says "Rapid forward movement" for EB3 and EB2 India priority dates.
Given that 261,500 is expected in place of 140,000, we can expect almost double the immigrant visas to be given out this year. Assuming, 6,050 can be given out to EB2 India, then we can expect the Sept 2021 visa bulletin to have a final action date of 01-JAN-10. The unknown factors here are spill over for EB2 India and number of applicants downgrading to EB3. That will change the date.
We cannot do such a prediction for EB3 India as the applicants data by priority date is not available to us. But, what we do know is there significantly less number of applicants waiting for final priority dates as of November 2019 under EB3. There were 284,207 applicants pending under EB2 India, while there were only 66,362 under EB3 India. [5]
Date of filing is completely under DOS and USCIS discretion. They can make it "current" if they want to. In fact, doing that will help the USCIS get the much need cash through application fees. It will also help the applicants get their EAD. Win-win situation for both.
Next Steps:
EB3 India dates are favorable now than EB2 India dates. This means the days of "upgrading" your petition from EB3 to EB2 are not favorable at this point. Now, it is time to talk to your immigration lawyers are about "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3.
Meanwhile, if you are waiting for I-485, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.
Data Sources:
EB3 India dates are favorable now than EB2 India dates. This means the days of "upgrading" your petition from EB3 to EB2 are not favorable at this point. Now, it is time to talk to your immigration lawyers are about "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3.
Meanwhile, if you are waiting for I-485, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.
Data Sources:
[1] October 2020 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-october-2020.html
[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo
[3] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf
[4] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18
[5] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf
[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo
[3] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf
[4] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18
[5] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf
Thanks for putting a word out after a hiatus of 2 years
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI'm so thankful to you to write this blog. For my GC news, this has been my first choice to refer to. Great insights. By any chance, any idea how long it may take to get GC in EB2 for Jul 2010 priority date?
ReplyDeleteIt is hard to pinpoint Jul 2010 as the I-485 inventory data is only till Apr 2010. Assuming the same number of applicants per month, it might take another two years. But, there are many unknown factors - major ones being EB2 to EB3 porting and spill over for EB2 India and EB3 India. That will determine the movement on both the categories.
DeleteMy priority date is March 2012...If I meet the criteria for downgrading from eb2 to eb3, would it be wise to go for it given the statistics?
ReplyDeleteIt is best to consult your immigration lawyer, and talk about the your specific situation - who filed your PERM, I-140, what does it say and all that.
DeleteEB3 is good now for filing I-485 and getting EAD. EB3 being remain advantageous over years, will be decide based on number of applicants moving to EB3.
My PD is Nov 10, now current but My H1B is pending extension approval(expired I-94 recently received RFE) and I dont have an I-797 approval document. Is it going to be a blocker for filing I-485. Do I have to wait for H1 to be approved ? Pls suggest.
ReplyDeleteIt is best to check with your immigration lawyer.
DeleteReally happy to see this blog coming back to life. This is the only source I refer to for facts when it comes to GC movement. I have a quick question here - for EB2 India, does the movement in the Date of Filling mean anything? In other words, what does it mean to someone with priority date up to May 15th, 2011.
ReplyDeleteIf someone has not yet got EAD, "Date of Filing" helps them file I-485 and EAD application and get EAD.
DeleteIt also comes with a risk. If you get EAD and don't continue H1B, you can have a problem if for some reason the I-485 is denied.
DeleteMy PD in EB3 is Sep14 but I changed to another employer and extend my H1 based on I140 from previous employer. My new employer has not started the GC process yet. Can I file I485 myself without any help from previous employer? Since my date is current now, will I be able to get further extensions based on old I140 (Even if my employer starts the process it will take atleast 9 months and dates might retrogress by then).
ReplyDeletePlease check with a good immigration layer
Deletewhat happens to 160k family based visas? aren't they going to be spilled over to india EB2/EB3 visaes? What is your rationale behind EB2 just getting ~6,050 visas?
ReplyDeleteYes. Thats why instead of 140K, they are estimating 261K for EB. If you see the link [3], FY 2019 EB2 India got 2908. So, I think it will come to approx with other spillovers 6050. It might be more, it might be less.
DeleteWhy is it that EB2 India gets such less spillover. How does spillover work?
DeleteYou can check this - https://www.happyschools.com/eb-green-card-spill-over-process/
DeleteNice to see your analysis after a while. My priority date is April 2010 Eb2. Do you think it will become current any soon?
ReplyDelete1. You should talk to immigration lawyer about porting to EB3.
Delete2. Given today's data, April 2010 will be current only next FY.
3. There are lot of moving factors - number of people moving from EB2 to EB3, spill over for EB2, processing of applications by USCIS because of pandemic - all these will decide the date movements.
Thank you so much! I have been in EB2 for 10 years now since filing. I wanna wait out and be hopeful April 2010 will clear up in a couple of months with all the moving factors you have listed.
DeleteMy PD is Nov 2009 in EB2 and wondering if my GC will be issued in next two months? I have the EAD since 2012. Appreciate your thoughts?
ReplyDeleteIf you are not porting to EB3, then I am expecting your PD to become current this FY. After that, any progress will depend on USCIS processing time.
DeleteThank You
DeleteHello Ambals, I have a few questions
ReplyDelete1. My PD in EB2 is 9th Jun, 11. Based on above info on spillover from FB visas. is it better i wait to downgrade or in you personal opinion go for downgrade?
2. How long does it take to process EB3 I140 and 485?
1. If I am in your place, I will downgrade.
Delete2. This completely depends on USCIS - how many applicants apply, how many employees are available to process these applications.
Hi Ambals,
ReplyDeleteThank you for posting your analysis is after a long time. My PD is EB2, NOV 2010. However I have switched my jobs and my new employer is going to file for my Perm this week. Wondering if the USCIS will still let us use the Date of Filing chart in March/April 2021. Please let me know your thoughts.
For EB2, I hope it will.
DeleteWill the EB2 dates recede come Nov bulletin? Many of my friends are pushing to file by end of October but I don't have all the documents at this point. My PD is Nov 2010. Pls advise.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it will retrogress for your PD.
DeleteHi there
ReplyDeleteI also always search for your blog whenever I really want to read some good analysis.
My 2 cents - Don't you think India EB1/2/3 will get most of the family based spill over. I am just thinking this spill over also work the way regular inter EB spill over work and by that India EB1/2/3 each will get kind of (121500*2/7) 30~34K each due to most retrogress country. If EB2 people would be lucky they may get spill over from EB1.Any thought?
Correct. More on this here -- https://ambals.blogspot.com/2020/10/spillover-immigrant-visas-to-eb2-india.html
DeleteHello Ambals, MY PD is Dec 2009 EB2 India..I have EAD.Do you see my FA date becoming current this year?
ReplyDeleteThanks for this great blog and glad to see you guys back!
Yes. I expect it to become current this FY.
DeleteWhen do you expect Final Action Dates becoming current for Nov 2010 PD EB2 ? Next FY?
ReplyDeleteAt this point, not this FY. This will change, if more people before your PD port to EB3.
DeleteGreat to see you back. Others have already asked questions based on PD so I will ask something different. What do you think how many additional green cards will be issued to India EB1/EB2/EB3 categories based on spillover from family based GC?
ReplyDeletehttps://ambals.blogspot.com/2020/10/to-or-not-to-downgrade-from-eb2-to-eb3.html
DeleteHow does FB (family based) to EB(employment based) spillover work. Does unused family visas gets available to the most retrogressed EB category?
ReplyDeleteIf that's true then does that imply that the 100's and thousands of unused family visas gets available to EB2 and EB3 India?
If 200K unused family visas got spilled over, then wont Eb2 and eb2 expect a massive movement in the coming months? This massive movement is in total contrast to your analysis in this blog?
Thanks
Karthik
https://ambals.blogspot.com/2020/10/to-or-not-to-downgrade-from-eb2-to-eb3.html
DeleteWhat are the chances the EB2 dates will regress come Nov bulletin? Many of my friends are feverishly pushing to file by end of October. My PD is Nov 2010.
ReplyDeleteI don't expect it to retrogress in November.
DeleteHi my PD is sept 2010 for EB3I. could you please advise when do you think we will be current for FAD.??
ReplyDeleteIt will depend on how many folks who have priority date before you, port from EB2 to EB3. But, there is a high chance to become current this FY.
DeleteHi my pd is sept 2014 eb2, if I plan to downgrade can i use my current eb2 140 later to interfile if and all eb2 moves fast in future?
ReplyDeleteYou should check about your specific case with an immigration lawyer.
DeleteI have both EB3 and EB2 i-140 approvals and PD of Apr-2010. I’m confused which one to use for filing 485. Do you think using EB3 will get me green this FY?
ReplyDeleteRegards
Either one should be ok. EB3 being green will depend on how many folks who have priority date before you, port from EB2 to EB3.
DeleteThanks. That’s what I’m kinda indecisive on. Do you think FAD will move to end of April in Nov VB?
ReplyDeleteNot sure. It is all for DOS to decide when. Read this article from my friend, it will give you an idea on different scenarios - https://www.happyschools.com/eb3-to-eb2-downgrade-rapid-forward-movement/
Deletehi any idea when feb 2010 eb2 will become current? This year or in 2021? Thanks
ReplyDeleteMostly later 2021
DeleteMy PD is Nov, 2011 in EB2, do you recommend EB3 downgrade?
ReplyDeleteIf you need EAD sooner, you should. You can read this article for another perspective - https://www.happyschools.com/eb3-to-eb2-downgrade-rapid-forward-movement/
DeleteWhat happens if a Nov bulletin is not released at all ? Are the October dates still current? Has it ever happened though ?
ReplyDelete