We know that FY 2020 had 156,500 employment based green card (immigrant visas) from [1]. We also know that 261,500 visas are available for FY 2021 from [2]. Based on this, we are projecting the FY 2021 per category numbers in the above table. We know the FY 2019 actual green cards given for each category from [3].
By the spillover rule, unused visas in EB4 and EB5, will go to EB1. Unused visas from EB1 will go to EB2. Unused from EB2 will go to EB3.
Let assume, for all the categories except, EB2 India and EB3 India, we will have the same usage as FY2019 (latest year for which data is available to us).
Given all of this, lets do some calculations for FY2021 projections:
EB4 = 18,567 (FY 2021 availability projection) - 10,088 (FY 2019 actual usage) = 8,479
EB5 = 18,566 (FY 2021 availability projection) - 9,478 (FY 2019 actual usage) = 9,088
EB1 = 74,789(FY 2021 availability projection) - 40,092 (FY 2019 actual usage) = 34,697
Then, EB2 India will be = 74,789 + 2,908 (FY 2019 EB2 India) + 8,479 (EB1 Spillover) + 9,088 (EB5 Spillover) + 34,697 (EB1 spillover) - 40,052 (FY 2019 EB2 Total) = 89,909
By same rule, EB3 India will be = 74,789 + 5,083 (FY 2019 EB3 India) - 40,876 (FY 2019 EB3 Total) = 38,996
It will be a miracle if this happens !!! The above scenario is more for people looking for more positive news.
From Table 2 in [4], we know that, EB1, EB4 and EB5 have backlog more than the available numbers for FY2021. If the processing happens properly, all of the visas available for these categories will be used up. That means, no spill over for EB2. Either way, there is no spill over for EB3 as EB2 is severly backlogged.
The spill over for EB2 India in particular will be determined by EB2 ROW usage. EB3 India spill over will be determined EB3 ROW usage.
-----
[1] FY 2020 Numerical Limits - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Annual%20%20Numerical%20%20Limits%20-%20FY2020.pdf
[2] October 2020 Visa Bulletin - https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-october-2020.html
[3] FY 2019 Actual - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf
[4] Cato research - https://www.cato.org/publications/immigration-research-policy-brief/backlog-skilled-immigrants-tops-1-million-over
As per the latest 2020 i-140 approvals (Q1 and Q2), seems there will be more horizontal spillover from ROW to EB2-I/EB3-I categories.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/I140_rec_by_class_country_FY2020_Q1_Q2.pdf
For 2020, Q1+Q2, there are 1/3rd the approved applications of what they were the previous year. We can safely assume that i140 approvals will follow similar trend in Q3 and Q4. This means all these numbers from ROW will have a horizontal spillovers in EB2I / EB3I.
hi Anonymous
DeleteMy understanding is that its Fiscal 2020 and not Calendar 2020. So its data from Oct '19- March '20 (Q1&Q2). The spill over should have already been accounted in the fiscal year that ended Sep'20.
Please correct me if I'm wrong in my interpretation.
Correct. That is FY 2020 data. It just gives a pattern. If you see FY 2019 - 71,297 I-140s were approved, of that, 44,090 are from India. The other 2 countries, it shows are 652 from Brazil, 440 from Philippines, 1,677 from South Korea and 10,075 from China. Assuming, same pattern to follow - EB2 India = 74789 - 5235 (for China) - 5235 (South Korea) - 40052 (FY 2019 EB2 Total) + 3369 (FY 2019 China) + 4454 (FY 2019 South Korea) + 2908 (FY 2019 EB2 India) = 34998
DeleteIt's confusing. So even with 261,500 FB to EB spillover, you are saying EB1, EB4 and EB5 will consume all?
ReplyDeleteThe difference is Family unused is not same as spillover. It gets allocated as the regular quota . 28.6% to EB categories, restrictions of 7% per country ..and then the ROW and spiloover if any
DeleteThank you for the analysis. One question I have is since EB4, EB5 and EB1 have backlogs for 2-3 years for certain countries, is it realistic that FY20-21 visa usage for these category will be same as FY19-20. I feel spill over to EB2 after clearing the backlog in these categories will be much lower than projected here.
ReplyDeleteCorrect. EB2 India will have minimum 5235. Maximum will be 5235 + how much EB2 ROW will use. I expect EB4, EB5 and EB1 will use up all their allotted visas. If there are processing delays in those categories then they might come to EB2 India.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI have 140 approved for EB2 and EB3. My PD is 3rd Nov 2010. Based of Oct 2020 visa bulletin, I can file my I485 in both category. What will be your suggestion based on your analysis, which category Final Action date will soon move to Dec 2010?
ReplyDeleteI really appreciate and looking forward for your input.
Thanks
I think EB3 will move to Dec 2010 earlier. For your date, with porting, I expect both EB2 and EB3 will move to Dec 2010 by Sept 2021.
DeleteMy PD is on 18-Nov-2011 in EB2 Category. Based on your analysis do you think by Sep 2021 the final action date will reach?
ReplyDeleteMy PD is 18 Feb 2011 in EB2 category. What will be your suggestion based on your analysis do you recommend me to downgrade to EB3?
ReplyDelete