November 2020 Visa Bulletin was released today after a long wait. The dates didn't change for filing dates. It moved a little for final action dates.
Final Action Dates: [1]
EB2 India - 22 SEP 09
EB3 India - 01 MAR 10
USCIS agreed to use date of filing dates in visa bulletin.
Filing Dates: [2]
EB2 India - 15 MAY 11
EB3 India - 01 JAN 15
Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 261,500 according to the October 2020 visa bulletin.
In FY 2019, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,908 and EB3 India was 5,048. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [3]
According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, for EB3 India, there is no data for 2010. For EB2 India, there are 6050 I-485 applications pending for July to December of 2009. [4]
Prediction:
There are no prediction in this Visa bulletin, while last one says "Rapid forward movement" for EB3 and EB2 India priority dates. Probably DOS is trying to get an estimate on EB2 to EB3 based on this month's data to get a better understanding.
Hoping, filing date might stay the same or move forward at next couple of visa bulletins; and Final action dates will keep moving forward at this rate till last quarter.
EB2 India Prediction = 74,789 (EB2 Total Projection) - 5,235 (EB2 China Projection) - 5,235 (EB2 South Korea Projection) - 40,000 (EB2 ROW Projection) = 24,319
EB3 India Prediction = 74,789 (EB3 Total Projection) - 5,235 (EB3 China Projection) - 5,235 (EB3 South Korea Projection) - 5,235 (EB3 Mexico Projection) - 5,235 (EB3 Philippines Projection) - 40,000 (EB3 ROW Projection) = 13,849
Next Steps:
EB3 India dates are favorable now than EB2 India dates. This means the days of "upgrading" your petition from EB3 to EB2 are not favorable at this point. Now, it is time to talk to your immigration lawyers are about "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3.
The good news is, the dates are moving for final action dates and filing dates are still the same. So, if you are still deciding whether you want to "downgrade", you got another month to decide on that !
Meanwhile, if you are waiting for I-485, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.
Data Sources:
Meanwhile, if you are waiting for I-485, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.
Data Sources:
[1] November 2020 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-november-2020.html
[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo
[3] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf
[4] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18
[5] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf
[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo
[3] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf
[4] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18
[5] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf
EB2 India Final Action Date is 22 SEP 09 instead of 22 DEC 09.
ReplyDeleteThanks ! Fixed it !
Deletesome error here - Final Action Dates: [1]EB2 India - 22 DEC 09. FA dates for EB2 India is 22SEP09
ReplyDeleteThanks ! Fixed it !
DeleteCan't belive t
ReplyDeleteRapid forward movement is 6 week for eb3.
I am expecting most of the movement to be in June, July, August.
DeleteMy priority date is "December 15th 2010 EB2 India", Should I downgrade to EB3 ? If so, should I amend or file as new I-140, I am with same employer and same job role. How long it will take for my PD get current in EB2, if downgraded, how long in EB3 from now.My daughter turns 21 in 2 years and is a compelling reason for getting GC asap.
ReplyDeleteGiven the current data, this fiscal year or worst case next fiscal year it should be current. My suggestion will be to wait for couple of months and see how the movement is and then decide to downgrade.
DeleteMy PD is 29th April 2010 in EB2 India. Do you think I can get GC this year? My son goes to college this fall.
ReplyDeleteAtleast the data at this point indicates yes - EB2 April 2010 should become current this fiscal year. It will depend on how many people before you downgrade to EB3 and how much spillover EB2 India gets.
DeleteThanks Ambals
DeleteHi My PD is Sep 2010 and I am on eb2. Do you think I will get my green card next year? I applied for AOS last month under EB2 itself.
ReplyDeleteShould I consider creating a downgrade petition as well?
Atleast the data at this point indicates yes - EB2 Sept 2010 should become current this fiscal year. It will depend on how many people before you downgrade to EB3 and how much spillover EB2 India gets.
Delete