January 2021 Visa Bulletin was released today.
Final Action Dates: [1]
EB2 India - 08 OCT 09
EB3 India - 22 MAR 10
USCIS decided not to use the filing dates in January 2021 Visa Bulletin. So,
Filing Dates: [2]
EB2 India - 08 OCT 09
EB3 India - 22 MAR 10
Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 261,500 according to the October 2020 visa bulletin.
In FY 2019, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,908 and EB3 India was 5,048. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [3]
According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, for EB3 India, there is no data for 2010. For EB2 India, there are 6050 I-485 applications pending for July to December of 2009. [4]
Predictions:
Official prediction is not provided in this Visa bulletin.
As expected, the USCIS decided to use the Final Action Dates as filing dates for Jan 2021.
Guess is that, at-least the Final action dates will keep moving forward at this rate and then there will be some big movements in last quarter (July, August, September Visa Bulletins).
Next Steps:
EB3 India dates are still favorable than EB2 India dates. You should talk to your immigration lawyer, if "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3 is an option for you.
If you are EB2 India priority date is between 08 OCT 09 and 14 MAY 11, and have not filed your I-485, you have another 8 days to file it before the Jan 2021 Visa Bulletin kicks in. Same is true for EB3 India priority dates between 22 MAR 10 and 31 DEC 13.
Meanwhile, if you are waiting for your date to become current, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.
Data Sources:
[1] January 2021 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-january-2021.html
[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo
[3] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf
[4] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18
[5] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf
[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo
[3] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf
[4] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18
[5] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf
As predicted, there was rapid movement in dates in Nov 2020, Dec 2020, and Jan 2021 visa bulletin. It is just that "rapid" was not so clearly defined that it means one week. LOL!
ReplyDeleteLooking at dates movement, is it safe to assume that DOS is applying all spillover to EB1 first and then once it becomes current it will apply to EB2 and then as EB2 has plenty of pending numbers, EB3 wont be getting any of it?
ReplyDeleteNo. The spillovers are typically applied in last quarter - July, August and September. I am expecting good spillover for EB2 India and EB3 India both from ROW on their categories.
DeleteSo you think, USCIS will keep application pre adjudicated and start giving bulk approvals from Jul 21. As we have large number of spillover from FB, I assume spillover will happen by each quarter at least for that spillover a sit is large number to use in last quarter. I am Jun 2010 EB3 so wondering if I will see GC this year or not. Seeing EB3 moving faster I went with EB3 as I ahd both EB2 and EB3 I140 approval.
DeleteWhat I read on forums for Family based numbers spillover to EB for 2021, They will apply everything to first to EB1 and then left over to EB2 and then to EB3. It does not make sense as each category should be receiving 1/7th of spillover of FB. Isnt that correct?
DeleteFirst of all thanks a lot for all your posts. They are so useful for folks like me who just have an endless wait with straws to cling to. My PD is June 30 2011 in EB2. I missed the boat of filing for my EAD by downgrading to EB3 during the recent movements. Can you please provide guidance on when the dates can become favorable again so that I can realistically expect to be able to file for my EAD in either EB3 (by downgrading) or EB2 ?
ReplyDeleteThere is never a downside of upgrading or downgrading. You can have both EB2 and EB3 approvals in your hands and apply to the one which is more favorable. Its just a matter of extra fees. Don't wait.
DeletePlease give analysis of Feb 2021 Visa Bulletin. They also posted some new data on visa issuance.
ReplyDelete