February 2021 Visa Bulletin and Analysis for EB2 and EB3 India

 February 2021 Visa Bulletin was released today. 

Final Action Dates: [1]

EB2 India - 12 OCT 09

EB3 India - 01 APR 10

USCIS decided not to use the filing dates in February 2021 Visa Bulletin.  So, 

Filing Dates: [2]

EB2 India - 12 OCT 09

EB3 India - 01 APR 10

Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 262,000 according to the Annual Numerical lists provided. [3] 

In FY 2019, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,908 and EB3 India was 5,048. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [4]

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, for EB3 India, there is no data for 2010. For EB2 India, there are 6050 I-485 applications pending for July to December of 2009. [5]

Predictions:

Official prediction has been provided in this Visa bulletin. It says, EB2 India can move up to two weeks and EB3 India can move up to three weeks.

The USCIS decided to use the Final Action Dates as filing dates for Jan 2021. That continues in Feb 2021 and is expected to continue this Fiscal Year till Sept 2021 Visa Bulletin.

Guess is that, at-least the Final action dates will keep moving forward at this rate and then there will be some big movements in last quarter (July, August, September Visa Bulletins).

Next Steps:

EB3 India dates are still favorable than EB2 India dates. You should talk to your immigration lawyer, if "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3 is an option for you.

Meanwhile,  if you are waiting for your date to become current, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.

Data Sources:

[1] February 2021 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-february-2021.html

[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

[3] Annual Numerical Limits - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WEB_Annual_Numerical_Limits-FY2021.pdf

[4] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf

[5] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18

[6] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf