May 2021 Visa Bulletin and Analysis for EB2 and EB3 India

May Visa Bulletin is available now. 

Final Action Dates: [1]

EB2 India - 01 AUG 10

EB3 India - 01 FEB 11

USCIS decided not to use the filing dates in May 2021 Visa Bulletin.  So, 

Filing Dates: [2]

EB2 India - 01 AUG 10

EB3 India - 01 FEB 11 

Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 262,000 according to the Annual Numerical lists provided. [3] 

In FY 2019, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,908 and EB3 India was 5,048. In FY 2020, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,599 and EB3 India was 3,174. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [4]

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, for EB3 India, there is no data for 2010. For EB2 India, there are 10,727 I-485 applications pending between 01 JUL 09 and 30 APR 2010. [5]

Predictions:

The USCIS decided to use the Final Action Dates as filing dates for Jan 2021. That continues from Feb, 2021 Visa Bulletin and is expected to continue this Fiscal Year till Sept 2021 Visa Bulletin.

Expectation was that the dates would start moving from June. But, looks like DOS is moving the dates earlier. This brings good news for many that the dates have moved 3 months for EB2 India and 5 months for EB3 India. Hopefully, it will keep moving at this rate till Sept Visa Bulletin.

You can check out our predictions for this fiscal year in the previous post.

Mr. Charles Oppenheim has been kind to host May Visa Bulletin questions on Youtube Live. In summary, he is expecting final action dates to reach 15 MAY 11 for EB2 India and 01 JAN 15 for EB3 India by September 2021 Visa Bulletin (October 2020 Visa Bulletin filing action dates). He says EB1 to EB2 to spillover is already happening. He also said the dates will move atleast 3 months for EB2 India and 5 months for EB3 India for June 2021 Visa Bulletin. He mentioned, he might have to slow down the space in July Visa Bulletin based on numbers and EB2 to EB3 downgrade. You can see the full interview here - https://www.youtube.com/user/TravelGov/videos

Next Steps:

EB3 India dates are still favorable than EB2 India dates. You should talk to your immigration lawyer, if "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3 is an option for you.

Meanwhile,  if you are waiting for your date to become current, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.

Data Sources:

[1] May 2021 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-may-2021.html

[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

[3] Annual Numerical Limits - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WEB_Annual_Numerical_Limits-FY2021.pdf

[4] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2020AnnualReport/FY20AnnualReport-TableV.pdf

[5] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18

[6] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf