June Visa Bulletin is available now.
Final Action Dates: [1]
EB2 India - 01 DEC 10
EB3 India - 01 NOV 11
USCIS decided not to use the filing dates in June 2021 Visa Bulletin. So,
Filing Dates: [2]
EB2 India - 01 DEC 10
EB3 India - 01 NOV 11
Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 262,000 according to the Annual Numerical lists provided. [3]
In FY 2019, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,908 and EB3 India was 5,048. In FY 2020, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,599 and EB3 India was 3,174. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [4]
According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, for EB3 India, there is no data for 2010. For EB2 India, there are 10,727 I-485 applications pending between 01 JUL 09 and 30 APR 2010. [5]
Predictions:
The USCIS decided to use the Final Action Dates as filing dates for Jan 2021. That continues from Feb 2021 Visa Bulletin and is expected to continue this Fiscal Year till Sept 2021 Visa Bulletin.
The dates have moved 4 months for EB2 India and 9 months for EB3 India. Hopefully, it will keep moving at this rate till Sept Visa Bulletin.
Mr. Charles Oppenheim has been hosting "Chats with Charlie" on Youtube Live. You can see videos here - https://www.youtube.com/user/TravelGov/videos - Couple of interesting points this time:
1. He mentioned that all the Employment Based numbers (262,000) might not be used this Fiscal Year because of processing delays due to COVID.
2. He is expecting the FY 2022 Employment Based limit to be 290,000 because of non-usage from Family Based this Fiscal Year.
Next Steps:
EB3 India dates are still favorable than EB2 India dates. You should talk to your immigration lawyer, if "downgrading" from EB2 to EB3 is an option for you.
Meanwhile, if you are waiting for your date to become current, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.
Data Sources:
[1] June 2021 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-june-2021.html
[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo
[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo
[3] Annual Numerical Limits - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WEB_Annual_Numerical_Limits-FY2021.pdf
[4] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2020AnnualReport/FY20AnnualReport-TableV.pdf
[5] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18
[6] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf
[4] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2020AnnualReport/FY20AnnualReport-TableV.pdf
[5] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18
[6] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf
Ambals, Thank you for your detailed analysis. Considering the current scenario in which 100K of spillover visas are going to be wasted, where do you see EB2 and EB3 FADs in FY2022?
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