Common question is how far will the dates move by September 2021 Visa Bulletin ?
Typically, we can estimate 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) to be given every year under Employment Based Green Card category. This fiscal year (FY 2021) -- between 1 October 2020 and 30 September 2021 -- the estimate is 262,000 according to the Annual Numerical lists provided. [3]
EB2 India:
EB2 India date was 08 JUL 09 according to September 2020 Visa Bulletin dates in data source [1].
According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018 , for EB2 India, there are 6,050 I-485 applications pending between 01 JUL 09 and 31 DEC 2009. [5]
According to I-140 approved petitions list [7], For EB2 India:
FY 2009 - 6,674
FY 2010 - 15,313
FY 2011 - 22,286
Assuming these numbers are correct and there is no porting between EB2 to EB3 for FY 2009 and 2010 priority dates, there are 6,050 (according to I-485 inventory data) + 15, 313 (according to I-140 data) + 15, 313 (assuming one dependent per I-140 applicant) = 36,676 Immigrant Visas are needed for EB2 India to move to 01 JAN 2011.
According to FY 2021 annual numerical limits link in [3], 74,932 will be given for EB2 and in that 5,245 is guaranteed for EB2 India. In FY 2020, the number of green cards given for EB2 was 43,127 in that EB2 India was 2,599, according to link in [4]. Hence, all other countries in EB2 got 43,127 - 2,599 = 40,528. Assuming same is true for this year, 74,932 - 40, 528 = 34,404 will be the spill over number for EB2 India.
EB3 India:
EB3 India date was 01 OCT 09 according to September 2020 Visa Bulletin dates in data source [1].
According to I-140 approved petitions list [7], For EB3 India:
FY 2009 - 4,422
FY 2010 - 6,682
FY 2011 - 6,929
FY 2012 - 4,110
Assuming these numbers are correct and there is no porting between EB2 to EB3, (4,422 / 4) + 6,682 + 6,929 + 4,110 (according to I-140 data) + (4,422 / 4) + 6,682 + 6,929 + 4,110 (assuming one dependent per I-140 applicant) = 37,653 Immigrant Visas are needed for EB3 India to move to 01 JAN 2013.
According to FY 2021 annual numerical limits link in [3], 74,932 will be given for EB3 and in that 5,245 is guaranteed for EB3 India. In FY 2020, the number of green cards given for EB3 was 42,821 in that EB3 India was 3,174, according to link in [4]. Hence, all other countries in EB3 got 42,821 - 3,174 = 39,647. Assuming same is true for this year, 74,932 - 39,647 = 35,285 will be the spill over number for EB3 India.
Unknown:
The data that we don't have is EB2 to EB3 "downgrades" and EB3 to EB2 "upgrades". If we have that, we can estimate the numbers better. Another big unknown is the spill over, we have given one possible scenario above. The actual number will depend on the number of applicants from other countries (ROW).
Data Sources:
[1] September 2020 Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-september-2020.html
[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo
[2] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo
[3] Annual Numerical Limits - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WEB_Annual_Numerical_Limits-FY2021.pdf
[4] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2020AnnualReport/FY20AnnualReport-TableV.pdf
[5] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18
[6] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf
[4] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2020AnnualReport/FY20AnnualReport-TableV.pdf
[5] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18
[6] EB petitions waiting visa final Priority Dates -- https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/USCIS_FOIA_EB_backlog.pdf
[7] I-140 Approval petitions - https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/I140_by_class_country_FY09_19.pdf
great info..thanks
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_A7jX4Xvi9Y&t=960s - check out around 16:00 he is being more optimistic and saying it will come till Chart B (15 MAY 11 for EB2 and 01 JAN 14 for EB3)
DeleteThanks for the awesome analysis.
ReplyDeleteLooking at the way the EB2 India is moving looks like USCIS is moving the dates at a rate of 4 months every bulletin. Maybe they want to approve all cases until end of 2010. Just a thought. This maybe due to the fact that a lot of porting from EB2 to EB3 would be people who have priority date somewhere around mid 2011 and further.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_A7jX4Xvi9Y&t=960s - check out around 16:00 he is being more optimistic and saying it will come till Chart B
DeleteWhat does he mean by Chart B?
DeleteWe think it is "B" under "employment based" in - https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-april-2021.html
DeleteYou mean he is talking about Date of Filing charts. But movement is more important in chart "A" Final Action Dates, because that is what USCIS allows to use most of the times, and that is what really tells us if we are current for green card. Chart B is just an illusion.
DeleteThanks. Yes very good info. Hopefully the dates move according to the DF chart
ReplyDeleteHi, Would you recommend an affordable and reliable immigration attorney. I am getting in close to I-140 filling and I have to pay for fees going forward so I am looking for reliable and affordable option.
ReplyDeleteThere is no such thing as "affordable attorney". Majority of fees is to be paid by your employer.
DeleteHi,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the great information. I have few questions about the below statements. Unless spillover usage is first-come, first-serve basis without any country cap, China will also get a fair share of spillover from EB2 ( 34,404 ), and EB3 (35,285) since China's EB2/EB3 category still has a backlog ( see my analysis below)
I have been trying to find how USCIS will use spillover but didn't find the details. I would appreciate it if you can explain and point me to the proper references.
Also, in 2020 India got 17,014 Green cards in EB1 (backlog cleared from Jan 2015 to March 2018), and 47,203 were issued worldwide. Since EB1 is current in India and China, do you think there will a spillover of ~30000 green cards to EB2 or EB3 (assuming ~45000 issued in 2021 in EB1)?
Your statement/analysis
EB2 - all other countries in EB2 got 43,127 - 2,599 = 40,528. Assuming same is true for this year, 74,932 - 40, 528 = 34,404 will be the spill over number for EB2 India.
EB3 - Hence, all other countries in EB3 got 42,821 - 3,174 = 39,647. Assuming same is true for this year, 74,932 - 39,647 = 35,285 will be the spill over number for EB3 India.
My analysis:
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/I140_rec_by_class_country_FY2020_Q1_Q2.pdf
China's EB2 backlog from 2016 - 2020 (7464, 6285, 8045, 10075, 2949 ) Total = 34818
China's EB2 backlog from 2016 - 2020 (3229, 4409, 4198, 3835, 1587 ) Total = 17258
1. Spillover rule is that most retrogressed country will get all the spillover in that category. As of this bulletin, EB2 China date is 01SEP16 while EB2 India date is 01MAY10. Once the 5,245 visas are given to EB2 China, till both EB2 China and EB2 India has to reach the same priority date only then, they can split the spill over numbers.
Delete2. Given the I-140 numbers for EB1. I am assuming, all the EB4, EB5 and EB1 numbers will be used by EB1 itself.
Thank you. In a recent interview, Charlie Oppenheim said we could expect the same amount of spillover in FY 2022. Let's say, if we get ~79K GCs in each EB category in FY2022, I hope there will be a ~45K or more surplus in EB1 (based on I140 data in 2020, only ~12K EB1 was filed all over the world, and also China/India EB1 are current as of 2021). Do you think this EB1 surplus will spillover to EB2, which will eventually be given to India EB2? Also, EB2 will have a spillover of ~40K in the same category. So a total of ~95K will spillover to EB2 in FY 2022 for India.
DeleteIn that case, India EB2 will move to Dec 2013 by next year, Sep 2022.
(not sure if my assumption is correct, please advise)
1. Once we get the 2021 data, it will give a path for 2022.
Delete2. For EB1, September 2020 Priority date was 01MAR18 for India and China. All other countries were current. So, you should consider almost all of 2018 and then 2019 and then everything till Sept. From this - https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/I140_by_class_country_FY09_19.pdf - 7523 (India 2018) + 4105 (India 2019) + 4525 (China 2018) + 2689 (China 2019) = 18,842. Add 18,842 for dependents = > 18,842 + 18,842 = 37,684 - All are pending. Plus an unknown amount after that till September 2021. This is the reason for me to assume, EB1 will take up all the spillover. There might be some administrative delays that can make it go to EB2. But, my guess is very less.
Thanks. I was referring spillover we may get in FY 2022 ( Oct 2021 to Sep 2022) from EB1 category to EB2 since India and China are current as of April 2021 and with the assumption that it will stay same till Oct 2021 when FY2022 starts.
DeleteHi, by looking the data for FY 2022 , i believe for EB2 India it should be around 100K with spill over. add on EB2 to Eb3 downgrades happened, hope still some folks will be in both Eb2 and Eb3 line, but it take some time for USCIS to interfile and revert to Eb2, even i140 count still stays in Eb2 , reality for i485 to adjudicate will take some time, with all this assumption i believe easily till july 2014 possibility to have Date of filing before Oct 2022. Is that sounds reasonable ?
DeleteEmployment Based for FY 2022 ::
Starts Oct 2021 :: 140K + 150K (Spill over from Family based) = 300K (Rounded for easy math)
EB (300K) = EB1(28.6% = 85K) + EB2(28.6% = 85K) + EB3(28.6% = 85K) +EB4(7.1% = 21K) + EB5(7.1% = 21K)
EB Spillover :: (EB4+EB5) --> EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3
EB1 Final Count :: 85K + 10K(EB4+EB5) :: Since all of EB1 is current, We can expect 60K + to move down to EB2
EB2 Break down :: EB2I(7% @ 6K) + EB2C(7% @ 6K) + EB2ROW((73K) + 60K(From EB1)) = 145K
EB2 India Count :: 6K(Initial Allotment) + 90K(From EB2 ROW to most backlogged country) = ~ 100K +
EB3 Break Down :: EB3I(7% @ 6K) + EB3C(7% @ 6K) + EB3ROW((73K) + Spillover from EB2 which would be ZERO.
EB3 India Count :: 6K(Initial Allotment) + spill over from EB3 ROW(This could be minimum as there's a lot of pending applications in EB3 ROW
hi,
ReplyDeleteMy priority date for EB 2 India is May 2011 with company 'A'. I have approved I-140. I am currently working for company 'B' and plan to restart my GC process. Should I file the PERM in Eb 2 or EB 3 Category?
Given EB1 India is current, and will be current for the rest of the financial year, it is likely that EB1 to EB2 spillover will occur. How much remains to be seen, but it will be a significant chunk.
ReplyDeleteFor EB1, September 2020 Priority date was 01MAR18 for India and China. All other countries were current. So, you should consider almost all of 2018 and then 2019 and then everything till Sept. From this - https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/I140_by_class_country_FY09_19.pdf - 7523 (India 2018) + 4105 (India 2019) + 4525 (China 2018) + 2689 (China 2019) = 18,842. Add 18,842 for dependents = > 18,842 + 18,842 = 37,684 - All are pending. Plus an unknown amount after that till September 2021. This is the reason for me to assume, EB1 will take up all the spillover. There might be some administrative delays that can make it go to EB2. But, my guess is very less.
DeleteThank you for the detailed analysis. For those of us, who dont fully understand the details here; I am not sure I got an answer to the question in the headlline :) "EB2 India and EB3 India - how far will the dates move ?". It would be great if you could clarify.
ReplyDeleteSeparately, thanks for your work on this. Much appreciated.
Guesstimate at this time is 01 JAN 2011 and 01 JAN 2013 by Sept 2020 Visa Bulletin - what we don't know is the porting and spillover numbers - depending on that it might change drastically.
DeleteYou forgot to calculate the EB1 spill over to EB2 as EB1 is current for all countries for now. So above dates Of EB2 India 1 Jan 2013 will more forward.
ReplyDelete