January 2016 Visa Bulletin and Analysis

January 2016 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today.

EB2:

Cut-off dates for EB2 India moved from 01 JUN 07 to 01 FEB 08. EB2 China stayed at 01 FEB 12. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is the EB2 India is moving forward.

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 22 APR 04 to 15 MAY 04. EB3 China moved from 15 APR 12 to 01 JUL 12. EB3 Philippines moved from 01 AUG 07 to 01 NOV 07. For all other countries the date moved from 01 SEP 15 to 01 OCT 15.

Good news is there is forward movement for all countries.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was released in October. For EB2 India, there are 18,814 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. For EB3 India, it is 20,207 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date.

What is new ?:

From October visa bulletin, they introduced two different dates. The above dates you see reflect the cut-off date for getting Green Card. They have introduced a new chart of dates. If your priority date is before the cut-off date, then you can apply for I-485, EAD and AP.

More information is here  -- http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo#New Visa

EB2:

Adjustment of Status (AOS) filing cut off date for EB2 India is 01 JUL 09. For, EB2 China it is 01 JAN 13. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

EB3:

Adjustment of Status (AOS) filing cut off date for EB3 India is 01 JUL 05. For, EB3 China it is 01 OCT 13; For EB3 Philippines it is 01 JAN 10. For all other countries it is 01 JAN 16.

After this, they recently introduced another complexity to this whole puzzle. Now, you see this date on DOS visa bulletin and then, you have to go verify if the same chart is applicable or not on USCIS website. USCIS will determine according to its inventory, whether they want to introduce a new chart. That info can be filed here -- http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo 

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:

I am hoping EB3 India will keep moving forward 2 to 3 weeks, every visa bulletin.

For EB2 India:

What will happen will depends on DOS Strategy. From the looks of it, they are keeping the AOS date as it is and moving the Green Card date slowly forward. It will change based on EB3 to EB2 conversion.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

• General list can be found here - http://ambals.blogspot.com/2013/07/getting-ready-to-file-i-485.html 
• This blog post will help you, if you have not done vaccination - http://ambals.blogspot.com/2013/12/vaccination-record.html
• This blog post will help you, if you don't have your Birth Certificate or Marriage Certificate in place - http://ambals.blogspot.com/2013/06/affidavit-of-birth-along-with-i-485.html

The above links are for reference only. Please check with your lawyer and check the USCIS website for official latest list.

Final Notes:


I am still trying to wrap my head around why DOS has to introduce this chart and then USCIS has to decide whether this one or new one. Why not USCIS release it directly ? I don't have an answer.

This fiscal year has been very dramatic. From the time DOS introduced the new chart, with very high numbers and then retrogress back, even before October. Then, they decided, DOS will introduce it and USCIS will decide and introduce another chart. I am expecting more to come as they try new things to implement President's Executive Order. We will keep a watch.

For all EB2, EB3 India folks -- Unfortunately, if we want to be here, we all have to go through it. Yes, it is a tough long frustrating journey. Hang in there. It will get over soon.

Links:
You can see the official January 2016 Visa Bulletin here -http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-january-2016.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory