Estimated 140,300 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2015 and 30 September 2016 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.
Last few years EB2 India has received good amount of spill overs. Unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case). But, last year the number for EB2 India was relative less compares to the previous years.
The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:
FY 2015 - 7,235
FY 2014 - 23,527
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806
The number of visas available through spillovers on the top of the regular 2,809 visas available and number of applicants porting from EB3 India to EB2 India -- are the two factors that will decide the date movement at the end of every fiscal year. Let us see different scenarios for Sept 2016 visa bulletin EB2 India date.
Best Case Scenario:
The average over the last few years about 13,000. Assuming that number and assuming 4000 porting. Then, according to numbers in Jan 2016 I-485 pending inventory, the date will clear the inventory and move to 01 AUG 09.
Worst Case Scenario:
If there are only 7000 available visas and if there is 2500 porting between Jan and Aug, then, according to numbers in Jan 2016 I-485 pending inventory, the date will move to 01 JAN 09.
Most Likely Scenario:
According to me, the most likely scenario is 01 APR 09 -- assuming about 8,000 visas available and about 2000 porting between Jan and Aug.
Data Sources:
I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory
EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html
Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf
As per your analysis the country which is most retrogressed gets the bulk of green card. But if you look at EB3 green card numbers from 2015, you will notice that Philippines has gotten more green cards in Eb3 than India. Isn't this the case, where USCIS/DHS is not following its own rule ?
ReplyDeletewhy are not actively posting and commenting recent visa bulletins ???
ReplyDeleteThank you for posting the predictions. It's been pretty long you posted those and we were all eagerly waiting for your verdict (That's the confidence we have in your predictions :)
ReplyDeleteAny predictions for PD Aug 2010 ? Thank you and keep chiming in :)
Hi Ambals,
ReplyDeletePD is June 2010 EB2 India, when can we expect EAD?
Thanks!
It will get current in 2017, If the spill over is huge in 2016,2017. Otherwise 2018 for sure.
Deletethanks for the detail analysis.
ReplyDeleteThanks for posting again. Why do you think they are moving the priority date for eb2 so slowly?
ReplyDeletePointless. 3rd division BCom from India with fake manager title in fraudulent consultancies are getting green card by EB1C within 6 months while folks with MS/PhDs from top tier universities are stuck in decade long queues.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the analysis.. so filing dates are dead now.. if its still active will it move beyond July 2009? Any predictions on that front or its a gone story no more filing date concept.
ReplyDeleteIts dead with pending lawsuits
DeleteLawsuit was a clever ploy to halt filing date........
DeleteWhat a waste of 'Filing Date' !!
DeleteLawsuit is the culprit.
Thank you Ambals. Please post your blogs always as it give us motivation by ready the blog. My PD is EB2I 02/2011. Any idea when can we file EAD and AP? Thank you!!
ReplyDeleteThank you Ambals. Please post your blogs because that really gives us motivation. My PD is EB2I 02/2011. Any idea when can we file our EAD and AP? Thank you!!
ReplyDelete2019 Sep
DeleteFrom May 2016 Visa Bulletin:
ReplyDeleteVISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS:
During the past month, there have been extremely high levels of Employment-based demand in most categories for cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services for adjustment of status. If this sudden and unanticipated change in the demand pattern continues, it could impact final action dates in the coming months and possibly require corrective action in some..
It seems that final action dates will retrogress in coming months.
My PD is Aug, 2012 under EB2 (India). Any idea when it will get current?
ReplyDeleteSep 2021 or 2022
DeleteAfter 2011, anything with 10+ years would be optimistic.
Delete2009 - 2016, 2017 ( 7-8 years)
Delete2010 - 2018, 2019 ( 8-9 years)
2011 - 2020, 2022 ( 9 - 11 years)
2012 - 2024, 2026 ( 12 - 14 years)
2013 - 2027, 2030 ( 15- 17 years)
Hi My PD is Aug, 2012 (EB2 India). Any idea when it will be current?
ReplyDeleteI will go to other prospective countries without wasting my life.
ReplyDeleteMy Priority Date is Sept 22 2009 when can i expect PD to be current.
ReplyDelete2017 for sure
DeleteMy guess is it will be 2018 for 2009 May to December and folks in 2010 will get between 2019 to 2022. Dates will roll back to 2006, porting and lack of rollover from eb1/eb5 will cause delays. I hope to be proven wrong and people will get early. I request folks not to think too much even though it's bad and be happy with the beautiful life we have. Mine is august 2010
ReplyDeletePD - Best possible, worst possible ( years taken )
ReplyDelete----------------------------------------------
2009 - 2016, 2017 ( 7-8 years)
2010 - 2018, 2019 ( 8-9 years)
2011 - 2020, 2022 ( 9 - 11 years)
2012 - 2024, 2026 ( 12 - 14 years)
2013 - 2027, 2030 ( 15- 17 years)
That's scary
DeleteSo scary mine is sep 2013
DeleteAmbals,
ReplyDeleteHave the spillovers from other categories been applied to EB2 India already? Do you think there is a significant effect of EB1c over consumption of Big Companies on EB2 India?
How does EB1C effect EB2 in general? Does EB1C has the feasibility to consume the world category in EB1? Is this why the EB2 India is slowing down.
From the links you provided and noticed that EB1C india consumption hasn't changed since 2014 which is nearly ~12000 yearly. If EB1C is not the major factor for down paced EB2, then what else can cause this?
Hi
ReplyDeleteI predicted this in my comments a few months back when the ambals posted their last blog. The total porting for EB3 to EB2 is around 5k or so. If you see the EB3 allocation for FY-15', around 7K visas were allocated. Similarly , around 7K were allocated to EB2. There is no spillover for EB3 as EB2 is backlogged. Hence, the 7k for EB3 is only possible if we had around 5k or so porters. So even the porting demand was not that bad. I expected around 7k or so and it came out lower. My PD is Jun-09 eb2 and the prison sentence continues..
Its very unfair when you see countries like S Korea, Germany and others sending a larger % of their population here in skilled visas yet for India, we are being penalized with this country cap. If an India is showing year after year that he has a job and someone is paying him/her good money for his skills what the heck does country cap achieve. I don't get it. Its all politics.
Hello,
ReplyDeleteMy priority date is 17-Sep-2007 in EB3. When can I expect my PD to become current? Thanks.
Hello My PD is Dec, 2009, No EAD. I missed the boat in 2012 ... .. Do you I can atleast apply EAD in 2016?
ReplyDeletemay be ( may be ) in 2018
DeleteGuys, I am 32 years old and my priority date is July 2015 EB2I, how long do I have to wait to get either EAD or GC? I am just trying to know so that I can plan accordingly, I do not want to spend 20 years of my life in the line. I will very well go back to India if that is the case. Please help!
ReplyDeleteEB2I movement totally depends on spillover from EB1 and EB2ROW and EB3 to EB2 upgrades. No or Low SO means dates will move barely. That's happened last year. EB2I got around 7.2K visas and 6K-7K porters took the whole share. Same thing is happening this year too. If this trend continues, I don't expect dates will move past 2010 in another 5-6 years. Another Democrat in WH means nothing is going to change for another 4-8 years and conditions would be getting worst for EB2I in future.
Delete2015 July will get EAD in 2037-2040.
DeleteNow upto you to decide.
I am 35. Started my GC process in 2009 and have PD as June 2009. Still waiting since 7 yrs. You will be 40+ waiting in line.
DeleteHi,
ReplyDeleteMy PD is 08-Jan-2008 (EB2-India). Filed I-485 on 1/26/2016. Got my EAD in Mar-2016. How long do I need to wait to get the Green Card in hand? Do you foresee Final Action date getting retrogressed again in the near future? Appreciate your insight on this.
Thanks
Thank you so much for the informative post.
ReplyDeleteI just checked inventry data to see porting for last 3-4 years. it's around 5K-8K. So far EB-3 is current upto July 2007 only. So as dates move on after July 2007 for EB-3 (years passes) this number will surely increase every year.
ReplyDeleteWe can not blame people who port since everyone likes to come out from this mess.
Also USCIS know about EB-1C.
Easy solution, I see, is USCIS should start using the uncaptured green card 250000 (Since 1990). If not all at a time then atleast 25000 every year. Otherwise every month we will see two reasons (1) dramatic change in rest of world demand and (2) dramatic change in porting.
seems gloomy but I think that is the fact.
India got 136551 green card from 2008 to 2015 but it seems inventory data does not show propotionate reduction in EB-3 and EB-2 catefory. Not sure why? If so it seems dates are no moving anywhere in future.
ReplyDeleteMy PD is September 21, 2010. Is there any chance of getting an EAD within the next 12 months? Would appreciate any pointers.
ReplyDeleteGreat blog. You are atleast providing some direction on where things are heading. Cant blame USCIS or US governoment as it is their land and their laws but the least they can provide is a tentative timeline about when things can move. Atleast it helps people like me who are stuck in same job for years to look around and refile GC without worrying about missing the boat when dates become current when waiting on filing a new labor app.
That is true that it is their land and their rule. But when you contribute in economy for 10-12 years, pay taxes, have clean record then I think you can surely raise your concerns in right manner. No reason to keep law profile all life.
DeleteThere are many ways to take care of this issue, but someone needs to at least look into it.
Even after 10-12 years, having master degree, good attitude, license or certificate in that field, knowledge, enthusiasm to put efforts, capability and skill to invest in business if someone has to think million times to take step (after 10-12 years) then system really needs fair amount of revision.
I know few people around me who took chance to change their job and could not file 485 and still are waiting for that moment and they are here for 13 years. I am not sure how this can be justified anyway.
Not starting here any fight but these are facts and I am also hoping for some positive outcome and waiting for someone to initiate to improve the system.
My pd june 2006 eb3 india. Please let me know when it would be current.
ReplyDeleteMy pd june 2006 eb3 india. Please let me know when it would be current
ReplyDeleteMy PD 2nd Dec 2008. Any chances to get GC this year ?
ReplyDeleteYes
Deleteyes. But next year for sure.
DeleteMy priority date us 2013 Jan , can u please estimate gc application filling date(EAD).
ReplyDelete2029 Sep
Delete2030
DeleteI think before 2013 Jan, there would be around 80k to 100k EB2I applicants (including existing 21K pending 485 cases) waiting to file the 485 when PD becomes current (Not including EB3 porting cases, add another 20K-30K). The way its going from last 2 years where EB2I gets 4k-5k spillover only, estimate would be around 15-20 years from 2016 atleast unless I140EAD rule becomes law with no string attached.
Delete@shakthi: should be current next month for sure.
ReplyDeleteNext week.
DeleteMy priority date us 2012 Nov , can u please estimate gc application filling date(EAD)?
ReplyDeleteMy priority date is june 2009. What is the probability of getting a greencard.
ReplyDeleteIf you are in rush,you can raise SR so that i will be current for you over this weekend.
ReplyDeleteGood luck.
Hi Ambals,
ReplyDeleteCould you do similar brief analysis for EB3 India. What is your best case scenario and what is the worst case scenario.
Your inputs will be highly appreciated.
Hi
ReplyDeleteMy pd august 2006 eb3 india. Please let me know any chance for this year.
Hi
ReplyDeleteMy pd august 2006 eb3 india. Please let me know any chance for this year.
PD - Best possible, worst possible ( years taken )
ReplyDelete----------------------------------------------
2009 - 2016, 2017 ( 7-8 years)
2010 - 2018, 2019 ( 8-9 years)
2011 - 2020, 2022 ( 9 - 11 years)
2012 - 2024, 2026 ( 12 - 14 years)
2013 - 2027, 2030 ( 15- 17 years)
This country's immigration system is not good, no one knows which scenarios they do move the dates and they do current. Better forget about GC or EAD's. Why don't they implement immigration system like in UK/Australia. or simply they should say, work as long as you want, but we will not give citizenship like in Arab countries..
ReplyDeleteDemand for EB1 visa numbers almost doubled between February and March 2016. As a result, there may be fewer excess numbers to spill down to the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category.
ReplyDeleteI am not sure how long this EB1C misuse is going to drag every one else down. EB2 should probably have a porting capability to EB1. This may not solve the problem and make it even worse. But I can at-least live with the fact that I am given the same rights as an MNC QA manager. I am not jealous of eb1c folks. But I seriously believe all EB2 folks are getting injustice in every aspect.
I used to have a positive hope and energy when the number of visas issued for EB2 india are in the range of 15000-23000. Now they are beginning to drop to bare minimum. Last year only ~7500 visas were approved for EB2 India and 5k seem to be from porting as per the comments above from other people. So technically, EB2 India is gaining nothing from spillovers. If this is the pace, mark my words gentlemen, we are going to wait and comment in this blog about immigration politics forever.
And seriously guys, I don't think we can fight against this because as an immigrant, we don't have any say or rights. Every now and then I see folks trying to send letters to congress about change of law. But seriously, has this ever worked out in our favor?
I see people in EB3 and EB2 coming here and asking about their priority dates ever going to become current in the future. You guys remind me of myself. I wish you all the luck because we need lots of it.
Sorry if I brought you guys some gloomy environment. I don't mean that and we can still live happily without our eads/gcs. But y'all should prepare for a LONG WAIT. I have been doing this since I came here in 2006 Jan.
Have hope! Hope is a good thing, May be the best of things and no good thing ever dies.
DeleteHari ommmmm
DeleteCan I test your patience and ask you say Hari ommm again after looking at the new visa bulletin?
DeleteMy PD is June 2013 EB2-I.
ReplyDeleteWhen will get my GC ?
Is it going to be :-
2013 - 2027, 2030 ( 15- 17 years)
Don't think so, because your kids should be able to sponsor you by that time.
DeleteThere should be some way for EB2 folks to move to EB1?
ReplyDeleteWhy not? If a 5 year pending eb3 case can upgrade to eb2. Why can't a pending eb2 case, with an education qualification like MS, and an extra 8 year wait for priority date can't be eligible for any upgrade?
Deletethanks for the info....
ReplyDeleteHai ,My priority date is 19th November 2006 (EB3 India).Could you please tell me when it vl b current.
ReplyDeleteThank u
2030
ReplyDeleteListen Guys,
ReplyDeleteWe have a pending lawsuit being fought by many very excellent lawyers.
Very very soon the filing date will move to 2011 OR beyond.
Have hope ......
:)
BS
DeleteWhat is the status of the lawsuit ? When result will come ?
Delete2030
Deletethe result will be out when they will make enough money out of extension fee.
DeleteLawsuit is a moneymaker and publicity for the lawyers. USCIS isn't going to do a damn thing. Now we are already back to 2004.
DeleteView Bulletin for June 2016 is out and EB2 India is retrogressed to 01OCT04. Absolutely disappointing news.
ReplyDeleteCan any one bring some insights into the projection over next couple of months? like EB2 July 2016, August 2016?
DeleteHorrible.this is so disappointing and frustrating.. My priority data is Oct 09 EB2 not a porter, missed EAD in 2011 when the dates were current and have been waiting since then.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteWOW. USCIS is still sending medical RFEs for 2009 dates. They don't know what are they doing? very disappointing. Now they are saying EB2 I dates are expected to advance slowly during the last three months of the fiscal year, at a pace consistent with that of the India Employment-based Third preference date. There is no difference between EB2I and EB3I.
ReplyDeleteYeah .. So much for STEM degrees and genuine work experience. US requires only noble laureates from CTS and Infosys. Eb2 and Eb3 are not qualified enough
DeleteDoes that mean zero spillover applied this year
ReplyDeleteLawsuit was a pure publicity stunt to increase twitter follower count, sell books, appear in TV etc.
ReplyDeleteIt was also intended to put filing date on hold until the long court process is done.
Priority date has retrogressed again :(
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts on why this might have happened?
Two things. Porting from EB3. Looks like USCIS is adjudicating a lot of status adjustment applications from Eb3 ported to Eb2, which is the main reason we are back to 2004. Suddenly they might have asked for 1000 visa numbers from DOS and DOS has freaked out.
DeleteThe second reason is our friends at the outsourcing companies (the potential noble prize eligible programmers and QA managers) have lined up their EB1 requests which the USCIS approves like Halloween candy.
Thanks
DeleteAre we done for this year?
Done with what ?
DeleteWe will never be done with both
EB3 porting will continue forever... until EB3 and Eb2 converges which has what happened now. Because spillover from Eb1 first comes to Eb2 (if there are any at all..)
EB1 abuse will continue until either people behave ethically or Trump hears about it and at the least it can become more news to increase awareness of how it is being abused.
Sorry for being gloomy but that's the truth and I have been a victim of this like thousand others.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteDon't be fooled by law firms. The law firms want this mess to never end and they want the immigration law to have 1000 loopholes. That's economics 101 if you own a immigration law firm. The only way to fix this is we all come together and hire a lobbying firm to fight our cause in DC. That's the only way this can be fixed.
ReplyDeleteI don't think we can do anything which can change, EB3 ports are not going to stop, EB1 is an easy way to get GC and then they work as consultants.
Deleteit will not cross 2009 June for years and years to come. May be for 20-30 years.
ReplyDeleteWelcome to new reality.
Hi my pd is in Jan 2014 in eb3. Keeping the spirits alive and wondering when I should expect ead...
ReplyDeleteare you serious?
Deletenext month
ReplyDeletemy mistake. I meant I140 got approved in Jan 2014 in eb3 category
ReplyDelete2050 for sure.
Deletehaha. so I think even if move it to eb2, it would be again another 15 to 17 years. By the time my kid will be able to sponsor me. Jai HO !
DeleteLOL.So many people are banking on kids sponsoring parents GC, and by that time even that will be so severely backlogged and I wonder what is USCIS planning for that.
Deletehttps://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-family/green-card-immediate-relative-us-citizen
DeleteHi,
ReplyDeleteMy EB2 PD is Mar,2009.
Can I file for 485? In other words, although as per visa bulletin the EB2I dates have moved back to 2004, the application date for EB2I is still 01JUL09. So am I eligible to file 485?
Thanks.
Yes you can file I-485.
DeleteNo. You can't file I-485. USCIS will update which chart should be used to start I-485 process in couple of days @ 'https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo'.
DeleteI guess, it should be 'Final Action Dates' chart as they never used other useless chart. USCIS will start moving dates from Oct 2016 bulletin. I think March 2009 dates would be current next year around Jan-Feb 2017.
Thanks.
DeleteHello Friends,
ReplyDeleteCould you please sign this petition and share with all your friends. We need to reach 5000 counts as soon as we can.
Thanks.
https://www.change.org/p/reduce-the-waiting-time-on-india-immigration-eb2-and-eb3-categories?tk=uUNn03TEodlT8TZW8quzH6btso6JudLXtt9OA5XM_rc&utm_source=petition_update&utm_medium=email
Petition Closed.
DeleteMy new prediction for EB-2
ReplyDeletePD Jan to March 2009 # GC very likely in 2017
PD Apr to June 09 # GC very likely in 2018
PD July 09 to Dec 09 # GC mostly in 2019 and 2020.
Prediction based on 7000 EB3 upgardes each year , 12000 EB1C Desi filings and ROW demand growth ( has anyone looked at South Korea. Its like 6k to 7k / year)
All others with 2010 PD and beyond, you will be in the prison for next 10 years of your life at minimum. Try to find a firm where you take a pay cut, go to India for a year and come back in EB1C for a reduced salary. You will get GC but loose 100k of lost salary for 2 year which I think is worth it.
Updated:-
ReplyDeletePD - Best possible, worst possible ( years taken )
----------------------------------------------
2009 - 2016, 2018 ( 7-9 years)
2010 - 2020, 2024 ( 10-14 years)
2011 - 2025, 2030 ( 14 - 19 years)
2012 - 2031, 2050 ( 19 - 38 years)
2013 - 2051, 2070 ( 38 - 57 years)
2014 - May not see the dates
Welcome to the new reality..............
DeleteFor India EB2 the dates retrogressed in June bulletin. is this normal or expected? How much impact does June 2016 visa bulletin have Ambals prediction above?
ReplyDeleteThe lawsuit was thrown out of the door too, wow I feel like the rest of us EB2 will take another 5-6 years from today to move to 2011, provided we get 12k visa's a year.
ReplyDeleteLooks like even EB1 is about to get retrogressed.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.murthy.com/2016/05/19/june-visa-bulletin-explanations-for-retrogression/
Thanks to the noble prize winning Multinational managers.When will the USCIS learn?
They will never even talk about this sickening truth. As Im typing, I am sitting next to an mnc manager who came on EB1C in 2015.
DeleteUpdated:-
ReplyDeletePD - Best possible, worst possible ( years taken )
----------------------------------------------
2009 - 2016, 2018 ( 7-9 years)
2010 - 2020, 2024 ( 10-14 years)
2011 - 2025, 2030 ( 14 - 19 years)
2012 - 2031, 2050 ( 19 - 38 years)
2013 - 2051, 2070 ( 38 - 57 years)
2014 - May not see the dates in their life time
hahaha...your estimated dates are out of sync from reality. Cut off dates will be introduced for EB1-India and china in Aug or Sept visa bulletin. Due to very high demand cut off dates will be added for EB2 ROW too. EB3-I to EB2-I porting in last 3 months is historical high. EB2-I is doomed. This year EB2-I is gonna get max of 4K-5K and porting is more than double of these number this year. There are almost 15k-20K pending cases before Dec 2009. Demand is going to explode in coming years in EB1 and EB2 ROW. Based on above predictions, it will take at least 6-10 years to clear 2009 cases only. 2010 and onward GOD KNOWS :(
Deletehttp://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2016/05/18/visa-bulletin-predictions-updates-charles-oppenheim-may-18-2016/?utm_source=Capitol+Immigration+Law+Group+Newsletter&utm_campaign=1721b76590-Weekly_Newsletter_May_19_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1074141ca5-1721b76590-390836705&mc_cid=1721b76590&mc_eid=6beb336522
That's correct.
ReplyDeleteit will take at least 6-10 years to clear 2009 cases only. 2010 and onward GOD KNOWS :(
However most of them will get GC via their sons/daughters.
Good news:-
It will be an approx 15-20 years of wait max :)
During Oct-2015 visagate, I did medical test for me and my family. Will those reports be of use in future ?
ReplyDeleteSo much of pain for vaccination and money paid.
medical test are valid only for a year.
DeleteI am doing the same every year as USCIS is asking for medical via RFE every year.
ReplyDeleteI am eb2-I 2009, having EAD.
New inventory of I-485 was just released according to the inventory between Oct 2015 and April 2016, 228 more cases were added to EB2, I mean the total number in inventory instead of going down went up by 228!
ReplyDeleteIMO that could mean that they are awaiting to apply spill over ( if any left) and only gave out 2400 of the allocated visa so far to India EB2.
DeleteYes I think you are right, they will start applying the spill overs most likely from August bulletin onward. Anyone has any idea how bad the spill over numbers will be for this year?
ReplyDeleteNone this year - Its consumed by respective category.
ReplyDeleteI don't think there will be any spill over as EB1 going to have cut off date.
ReplyDeleteTake a print out and put it in your desk :-
ReplyDeletePD - Best possible, worst possible ( years taken )
----------------------------------------------
2009 - 2016, 2018 ( 7-9 years)
2010 - 2020, 2024 ( 10-14 years)
2011 - 2025, 2030 ( 14 - 19 years)
2012 - 2031, 2050 ( 19 - 38 years) ( Get GC via kids)
2013 - 2051, 2070 ( 38 - 57 years) ( Get GC via kids)
2014 - May not see the dates in their life time
( Get GC via kids)
Good information. BTW how did you come with these numbers?
Delete:)
DeleteI am making a kid today :)
Ambala, Why are you not posting with new visa bulletin. Did you lose hope too.?
ReplyDeleteAmbala - yes, I did :(
Deleteno reason to post a blog if numbers didnt change. ambala is saving some time it looks like.
DeletePlease sing and share this guys.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.change.org/p/reduce-the-waiting-time-on-india-immigration-eb2-and-eb3-categories
Signed. Guys please support this as well with full speed.
DeleteSocial Security return through tantalization agreement. Please vote.
ReplyDelete---------------------------------------------------
https://www.change.org/p/sign-bilateral-totalisation-agreement-bta-with-us
Signed.
DeleteHello Ambalas,
ReplyDeleteVisa bulletin for July 2016 is out. Could you please provide your analysis and future predictions.
Thanks.
Better check with a parrot
DeleteEB2-I moved from Oct 2004 to Nov 2004. What a joke! As per 485 inventory only 8 cases are pending in Oct 2004. It means No spill over this year from EB1 or EB2 ROW this year. USCIS is predicting dates may move up to Jan 2005 by the Sept visa bulletin means USCIS has already issued country limit 2800 visas to EB2-I this year. There were around 4000 cases before Jan 2009 PDs were pending for EB2I in Oct 2015 inventory data and now as per latest inventory there are 3200 cases are pending before Jan 2009 PDs. So again like 2015 FY, this year almost all available EB2I visas went to porters. If this trends continue, it will take couple of years to reach to 2009 dates.
DeletePD - Best possible, worst possible ( years taken )
Delete----------------------------------------------
2009 - 2016, 2018 ( 7-9 years)
2010 - 2020, 2024 ( 10-14 years)
2011 - 2025, 2030 ( 14 - 19 years)
2012 - 2031, 2050 ( 19 - 38 years) ( Get GC via kids)
2013 - 2051, 2070 ( 38 - 57 years) ( Get GC via kids)
2014 - May not see the dates in their life time
( Get GC via kids)
What predictions? Are you looking for EB1C slowing down?
ReplyDeletei second that , to be honest the only way to get GC is to get in EB1 queue , you are in self denial if you are still dreaming about getting GC via EB3 and EB2 if your priority date > early 2009.
ReplyDeleteHi, Can you please clarify the "early 2009"? My PD is April 2009. Is it early 2009? Do I have any chances of getting GC in FY2017?
DeleteThank You
Any predictions on proposed regulation for priority date retention after employer change
ReplyDeleteAny one knows how to get into EB1 queue? What is needed to move from EB2 to EB1?
ReplyDeletewhat an innocent question.
DeleteIf uscis cannot give residency to people in their life time they should not collect any more petitions rather than scamming people with priority dates and keeping their employees paid. Anyone filing for gc from 2015 or 2016 is just filling up uscis coffers and they will not get gc in their life time or at rear end of life and uncessarily wasting money. It would be better if there is ead available and even that's an mirage. I don't mean to spread negativity but uscis is proving to be scam organization thriving on finance and emotions of several hard working people.
ReplyDeleteThe best chance of moving ahead from the Country backlogs is if Congress passes bills/laws addressing this issue. Here is the link for the "H.R. 213: Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act of 2015". This bill already passed House earlier but has not passed senate. It is sponsored by Jason Chaffetz (Republican).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/114/hr213
I would urge all people affected by EB backlogs to write to Congressman Chaffetz urging him to have his bill passed and signed by President Obama into law. If this happens, everyone will get their GC's in the next 2-3 years for sure.
Here is the way to contact the congressman by email:
https://chaffetz.house.gov/contact/
In addition to this, please sign the below petition. We need 625 more signs. Please sign and promote.
Deletehttps://www.change.org/p/reduce-the-waiting-time-on-india-immigration-eb2-and-eb3-categories
Hello, I have a priority Date of July 2006 for EB2 Category (Based on a prior EB3 filing). Are there any chances of getting that date in October Visa Bulletin or will I be stuck for 1 more year. Based on the latest Demand Data (Pending 485 inventory), there are only 600 applications till July 2006. I am not sure why the dates are pushed back, since there should still be pending numbers from 2016 year. Any thoughts?
ReplyDelete600 are after adjusting all porters like you and may have already consumed the EB2 quota for india i.e. 2800
DeleteIf you have priority date in July 2006, how you did not get your GC till now?
DeleteI had applied for a eb3 to eb2 porting recently, hence I am still waiting..
DeleteYou should get it in next few months. Max by end of this year for sure.
DeleteWhat an innocent question?
ReplyDeletePD - Best possible, worst possible ( years taken )
ReplyDelete----------------------------------------------
2009 - 2016, 2018 ( 7-9 years)
2010 - 2020, 2024 ( 10-14 years)
2011 - 2025, 2030 ( 14 - 19 years)
2012 - 2031, 2050 ( 19 - 38 years) ( Get GC via kids)
2013 - 2051, 2070 ( 38 - 57 years) ( Get GC via kids)
2014 - May not see the dates in their life time
( Get GC via kids)
What? Are you crazy?
DeleteYes, better come to the reality.
DeleteIt may be worse than what has been predicted above !!!
Because EB2-I is getting ZERO count of visa every year.
This is based on the assumptions:-
Delete1. EB2-I will get only 180 visa every year after all porter consumptions
2. There will be only 2000-3000 spill over every year ( which will be mostly consumed by porters)
3. The current demand of eb3-i and eb2-i remains the same
most likely :-
#2 will get worse
#3 also will get worse
Then the prediction above will look really bad. Add another 5-6 years of extra wait time to each year.
Stop porting...
DeletePriority Date Jun-2010, when can we apply for EAD?
ReplyDelete2020 - 2024
DeletePlease refer to 485 inventory. Don't worry about the predictions. As you can guess most of these are made out by guess work born with no facts. That is why I can't give you the year just like Ambal. Two things affect your wait line to move quicker: EB3-EB2 Porting, EB1C applications. Eb1c is a sink hole in the past 2-3 years which seem to conusme all EB1 leftovers. Approvals of 23,000 green cards to EB2 India category is long gone my friend. People still make a guess work based on these old analysis. But based on this velocity, 2020 seems possible for your green card. I'm not sure if any lawmakers can change our lives at this point my friend. Look at the bright side, you will get a green card long before me. Mine is December 2010 :)
DeleteGood information. Any prediction for July 30, 2009 priority date in EB2 category.
DeleteAnonymous@ June 20, 2016 at 12:36 PM. You are probably the first person in this blog to take your case and spin it positively for another.
DeleteYou are absolutely right. Any 20K GC for EB2 will be a dream. It will happen one day when TCS/Infosys completes exporting all their L1 managers and there is no one left.
earliest 2020
DeleteHopefully next year
ReplyDeleteJune 20, 2016 should be current in 2018 or 2019
DeleteAILA reports that State Department will impose cut-off of February 1, 2010 for EB-1 for China and India in the August 2016 Visa Bulletin. Beginning from October 2016, the cut-off date will be removed for China and India. There will be no EB-1 cut-off date for countries other than India and China in August. USCIS has been reporting that EB-1C has surged huge for these countries.
ReplyDeleteCognizant filed 7000 EB1 this year for their so called managers. Met one of their very excited EB1 applicant, a QA manager with 69k salary. There is no way to stop offshore companies to misuse EB1 or in other way they are taking full advantage of loop holes in immigration policies.
ReplyDeleteIts just not these companies to be blamed. Its the freakin lawyers who do anything for money.
DeleteThese companies don't only make unethical decisions by using this loop hole, but slow down the entire process for others by bringing their who family in to EB1. Instead of the principal applicant, they typically take up three to four visas for the entire family. Nearly 60% of the visas goes to dependents.
This is different compared to Eb2/Eb3 where most people stay here for long and their kids are born here and don't take up as much as EB1.
SO yeah thanks to all the screwball lawyers and QA managers.
Since advice to all sufferers. The immigration limbo will stay on forever. Let's not be optimistic; neither the Democrats nor the Republicans can fix this broken system. They are only concerned about illegal immigrants.
ReplyDeleteFor those on H1-B and having full-time jobs, sit as it and for those consultants, try to get a full-time job if you are not happy and scared to go for stamping. The dates will move at a snail's pace for EB2/EB3 I so even if a new PERM takes time, it is worth it.
Also I am glad that EB1 for India/China for August will be retrograded to 2010. Time to wake up for all the knuckleheads at USCIS and DHS
The table given above is inaccurate, the year 2019 is missing....
ReplyDelete2009 - 2016, 2018 ( 7-9 years)
2010 - 2020, 2024 ( 10-14 years)
2011 - 2025, 2030 ( 14 - 19 years)
2012 - 2031, 2050 ( 19 - 38 years) ( Get GC via kids)
2013 - 2051, 2070 ( 38 - 57 years) ( Get GC via kids)
2014 - May not see the dates in their life time
Hello Ambals,
ReplyDeleteI have been following your blog since 2012. I was under EB3 with a PD of May 2011 but recently applied for EB1-A and got my GC this week.
Just wanted to let the group know that it's not impossible to get into the EB1-A category even if you don't have an Oscar or Nobel Peace price. I for sure didn't have one. I just got a good set of lawyers and applied with the contribution and expertise in my field - as I am sure most of you all are also contributing. Just wanted to let you know and good luck,
_coron
hi Coron,
DeleteWould appreciate if you could share more details.
can you post layer info here , so other can leverages
DeleteHi Coron,
DeleteThanks for the helpful information. Could you also please tell us your field of work (e.g. Computers/Pure Sciences/Biotech) and if you have published research articles in journals.
Appreciate your help.
Hey there,
DeleteMy background is in computer graphics - not pure research, though I believe the lawyers reviewed my case for EB1-B, but said that EB-1 A was stronger. I haven't published any research articles in journals.
_coron
Can you please PM me your lawyer's details at mc82.in@gmail.com. Thanks
DeleteHi Coron,
DeleteCan u please send me ur lawyer detail/contact. My email id is cpatolia@gmail.com
Hi Coron,
DeleteThanks for your detailed reply to my question (July 4, 3:48 pm) regarding your background!
I have a similar background as yours (Computers - Data Analytics). We have been waiting for a GC for a very, very long time and your feedback gives me a glimmer of hope that the nightmare might be over soon.
Please do send me the details of your law firm.
My email is gcwait2016@gmail.com.
Many thanks again!
Hi Coron,
DeleteCould you please provide your lawyer details. I would like my case to be reviewed and see if I can jump in EB1, have been waiting for a while now in EB2
Replied to the queries
DeleteHi Coron,
DeletePlease provide details, can you post it here, Lots of us will get benefit of this information.
The U.S. Department of State (DOS) Visa Control and Reporting Division Chief, Charles Oppenheim, has confirmed that a cutoff date will be established in the employment-based, first preference (EB1) category in the August 2016 Visa Bulletin. The cutoff date will only apply to India and China, and is expected to be pushed back to January 1, 2010. This category then will return to being current for all countries on October 1, 2016, which will be the first day of fiscal year 2017.
ReplyDeletehttp://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/immigration/278805-how-immigration-laws-harm-skilled-immigrants-and-americans
ReplyDeleteUSCIS and our desk lawyers are a bunch of racist good for nothing,,,,they want these long lines to never end.
happy 4th july to all.
ReplyDeletedream to be an american...........
hi Coron,
ReplyDeleteThank you for your reply, I am in the similar situation, would like to know the lawyer you engaged is a company lawyer or an outside lawyer. Can we know his/her details. You could email me the info. saf.zhs@gmail.com
Replied to your query
Deletehi Coron,
ReplyDeleteWould you be able to PM me your lawyer's details.
My email id is d4dhiraj@gmail.com
Replied to your query
DeleteHi Coron, Appreciate you sharing your case, can you please email (raj.bhadur@gmail.com) your lawyer details. I have been stuck waiting for my turn in EB2 2009, missed the boat of getting atleast an EAD as my company was going through acquisition when dates were current for Nov 2009. Thanks Raj!
ReplyDeleteReplied to your query
DeleteHi Coron,
ReplyDeletePlz open a shop and provide the details with a fee.
No shortage of customers !!!!
Hi Coron
ReplyDeleteCongratulations !!! I would love to see what your lawyer have to say on my case too. Please share details to my id ps.onnathi@gmail.com
Hi Coron,
ReplyDeletePlease send the law firm details so that i can apply. My pd is EB-3 Aug 06
This is crazy!
ReplyDeleteCoron's one stop solution will NOT fit everyone's case(which you all think, yes we already know that)
Most of EB3s and 2s are plain consultants, the numbers are roughly 85%, the brainy remainders who take up research based high tech projects don't need a Green Card to survive, brain power attracts the best companies/countries at their foot steps.
Quit taking these never ending shortcuts and focus on self education to be the best that you can be.
Volunteer, Serve, live life..
Agreed with Anonymous -July 8, 2016 at 4:59 PM. The intent of my original post was not to provide a one stop solution to the EB2 and EB3 timelines, but rather remind the folks here that EB1-A and EB1-B are not reserved specifically for Oscar Winners, Nobel Peace Prize winners or PhD candidates.
DeleteHaving those would certainly help, but is not a necessity. EB1 categories are for individuals of extraordinary abilities in their respective fields. I am sure that most of you are not the same person you were, when you first applied for the GC, I certainly wasn't. Over time, I got experience, and honed my skill-sets. Somewhere along the line, my company and lawyers deemed me to fit into the extraordinary ability, though I wouldn't have recognized it. Would I have tried for EB1 on my own - frankly speaking, probably not. It was only due to my company and their lawyers letting me know that I fit in that category did I even entertain that thought - as I had also heard, and was convinced that EB1 A and B were reserved for only actors and really smart people. And, I would not call myself super intelligent or having a high IQ.
My original post is a just a small reminder for people here, to look at themselves, whether it be consultants, contractors or folks who have been waiting for years on end, and see if they have evolved from EB3/EB2 to EB1 over the years. The criteria for EB1 are here -
https://www.uscis.gov/working-united-states/permanent-workers/employment-based-immigration-first-preference-eb-1.
If you feel that you hit any of the criteria listed, or not, it is entirely up to you. You can use your lawyers to help you with pushing in this category - it will be an expensive ordeal, and again, it is up to you to decide whether you fall into this.
I have been responding to e-mails when I can, and have been generally saying the same thing.
Hope this helps in the future.
_coron
My email is Shreehari.pillai@gmail.com. Can you please send me Lawyer details ?
ReplyDelete