Feb 2019 Visa Bulletin was released earlier this month. The EB2 India dates for getting Green Card should be before 06 APR 09. The EB3 India date is at 22 APR 09. [1]. That is correct. For the first time, the EB3 India dates have crossed EB2 India dates.
Estimated 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year (FY 2019) -- between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.
In FY 2018, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 4,096 and EB3 India was 6,050. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [2].
According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, For EB3 India, there is no data for 2009. For EB2 India, there are 4457 I-485s pending for Apr, May, June and July of 2009. [3].
Regarding the filing dates, USCIS has a logic, which we have no visibility to. They can technically open up the Filing dates to latest dates. This will give opportunity to file I-485 and more importantly get the EAD and give the much needed -- less hassle job portability. For the first time, USCIS accepted "DATES FOR FILING OF EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA APPLICATIONS" chart in in October 2018 Visa Bulletin. They continued the practice till Jan 2019 Visa Bulletin. But this month, they decided to use Final Action dates in place of Dates for Filing in Feb 2019 Visa Bulletin. [4]. Given this, if your priority date is before 01 APR 10 and if you have not filed I-485, you still have chance to file it by 31 Jan 19. Even if you are EB2 India, you can talk to you immigration lawyer and see if you can "downgrade" your application to EB3 India.
Feb 2019 Visa Bulletin has predictions for the coming months. It says final action dates will move upto one week at a time till May for EB2 India and upto three months for EB3 India.
Given all of the above information, the final action dates are following the pattern of China, in the sense EB3 India dates are favorable now than EB2 India dates. This means the days of "upgrading" your petition from EB3 to EB2 are not favorable at this point. Now, it is time to talk to your immigration lawyers are about "downgrading" from EB3 to EB2 !!!
Data Sources:
[1] Feb 2019 Visa Bulletin --https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-february-2019.html
[2] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2018AnnualReport/FY18AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf
[3] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.uscis.gov/greencard/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory
[4] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo
Ambal, It's good to see your comments after an year. Why did the number of green cards given to EB2 folks declined so much? I see a high usage of EB1C from India. Is this a major factor that is pulling all the spill overs from other higher categories and countries?
ReplyDeleteSpillover from EB1 has stopped. Other countries in EB2 has lot more demand, that is reducing the same level spillover as well.
DeleteHi
ReplyDeleteWhere do you think the EB3 Final Dates will reach by End of this year?
Thanks!
It can go to end of 2009. But, it is just a guess. We have no visibility on I-485 numbers for EB3 India in 2009. We also cannot predict the number of "downgrades" from EB2 to EB3.
DeleteThank you ambals good analysis!
ReplyDeleteThanks Ambal for publishing. We were waiting almost a year from your last post.
ReplyDeleteAny predictions for EB2-I Jan 2011?
ReplyDeleteGuesstimate will be another 4 years at this rate. The unknown factors will be spillover and number of downgrades from EB2-I to EB3-I.
DeleteHi Ambals, my PD is May 1st 2010, I just moved to new employer and am planning to file perm, should I downgrade to EB3 ?
ReplyDeleteTalk to your immigration lawyer about your specific situation. My general suggestion is keep a close watch on priority dates. When your date comes closer to EB3 India dates, that time ask your lawyer to file for downgrade petition.
DeleteYou really don't have to downgrade now. If your date becomes current in EB3, you can directly file I-140 for EB3 alongwith I-485 at the same time. There is no point I-140 for EB3 in advance.
Delete