Yesterday, USCIS published the I-485 inventory as of 12 Jan 2012. This is the first for this fiscal year gives the end of fiscal year 2011 inventory.
According to Jan 2012 inventory, there are about 12,950 EB2 India I-485 applications pending who have priority date of 31-Jan-12 or earlier. It also says 51,160 EB3 India applications are pending who have priority date of 31-Aug-07 or earlier.
Looking at the EB2 India data, looks like the demand is infact low. This fiscal year started with 15-Apr-07 as priority date.In Oct 2011 Visa Bulletin it moved to 15JUL07, then it moved to 01NOV07 in Nov 2011, then it moved to 15MAR08 in Dec 2011, from there it moved to 01JAN09 in Jan 2012 and now in Feb 2012 Visa Bulletin is it at 01JAN10. Given this, for the inventory as of 12 Jan 2012, we could expect most of the folks who had priority date earlier than 15MAR08 would have filed by then. But, remaining 2008 Priority Date folks would have been still filing and 3,701 number for 2008 is fully expected to double or more. 34 count with Priority Date of JAN 09 might be an error since 2009 folks could file only in Feb 2012. Most of the movement happened in Jan and Feb visa bulletin. So, the next inventory release might be more useful than this to judge the demand number. But, what it tells us is during the Nov 07, Dec 07, Jan 08 and Feb 08 months the numbers are not in thousand but under 750. This is very less compared to previous months.
Capitol Immigration Law Group PLLC has published a news article on their meeting with Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State. According to this, EB2 India dates will move for about 6 months in March 2012 visa bulletin, citing the very low number of I-485 filings than expected. That is a very good news for EB2 folks.
As for EB3 India, we can expect around 2800 Green Cards to be given every year and the I-485 inventory to move at that rate, unless there is a law change.
To view the I-485 Data from USCIS website -- Please Click Here
Capitol Immigration Law Group PLLC News -- Please Click Here