Saturday, May 12, 2012

June 2012 Visa Bulletin and Analysis

After the high drama of releasing the June 2012 Visa Bulletin and pulling it off, it was finally released and links were given on DOS website yesterday. Dates for EB2 India and EB2 China is 'U' or Unavailable. For EB3 India it is 15 SEP 02 and EB3 China it is 08 AUG 05

As expected and mentioned in various law firm websites, the EB2 India and China dates have become  Unavailable. In the section D of the Visa Bulletin, DOS explains that since the demand is very high, it became necessary for them to make it Unavailable. They say it is going to remain like this for the rest of the fiscal year. They expect the dates to become available from October 2012 Visa Bulletin. DOS also says it will make effort to bring the cutoff date back to 01 May 2010, but they think it will be only after spring 2013, given the current demand.

Now the bigger question is what the date will be in October 2012 Visa Bulletin and how it is going to proceed. I think it is going to start back with 15 Aug 2007 for EB2 India and it is going to remain like that at least till June 2013 Visa Bulletin. There are 2 reasons for my guesstimate. One, as indicated by DOS, EB3 to EB2 porting is very high. Given EB3 India date is still 15 Sept 2002 and latest inventory shows there are about 49000, pending I-485 applications, in EB3 India category. I am assuming all of the applicants will be trying to port. How many of them will succeed is a different question. Reason two, even going by the current inventory, there are about 2800 applications pending in EB2 India category before Sept 2007, which is the actual number that can be approved for a given fiscal year for the category without any spillover. My guess here is, given what has happened this year, the DOS/USCIS will go back to how they were doing last few years, by waiting till almost the last quarter of the Fiscal year to move the numbers for EB2 India category.

Folks whose priority date is before 15 Aug 2007 can still file I-485 application till end of May 2012. Also, the folks who can successfully port from EB3 to EB2, can file I-485 after I-140 is approved, give their old priority date is before 15 Aug 2007.

For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change. The reason being there is no spill over to EB3 India category. Hence only about 2800 green cards are given for this category every year.

To view the June 2012 Visa Bulletin -- Please Click Here

To view the I-485 Data from USCIS website -- Please Click Here

To view Trackitt website -- Please Click Here

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  1. There is no cutt off date for EB2 ROW right?, I would expect to see EB2 ROW unused VISAs spillover to EB2-I&C by Oct, Whats your thoughts on this?

  2. disappointing...

    for legislation change:

  3. Hi everyone
    Needed your guidance
    My EB3 from India became current this month and am waiting for the GC.
    How long does it take? My EAD is expiring on 08 August 2012.
    Should I apply for EAD renewal???

  4. Hi there,
    Thanks for the enlightening article. I have heard that AILA (American Immigration Lawyers Association) thinks that EB2 will become current again (not for india or china but ROW) in October 2012. Do you think that would be true ?


  5. Hi,

    Glad to have someone to guide us on visa issues with such expertise. I have a quick question. I have my I-140 accepted though my priority date (Aug -2010) is not current. Can I file for I-485 and EAD now as a concurrent filling with I-140.