Thursday, December 12, 2013

January 2014 Visa Bulletin and Analysis

January 2014 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today.

EB2:

Date for EB2 India is 15 NOV 04 and EB2 China is 08 DEC 08. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

The good news is EB2 China keeps moving forward. 

EB2 India dates retrogressed last Visa Bulletin. I think it is going to stay the same till June 2014 Visa Bulletin. It might start moving big from July 2014.

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 01 SEP 03 and EB3 Philippines is 15 FEB 07 and all other countries is 01 APR 12.

Good news here is all countries except India and Philippines are at 01 APR 12. Also, their corresponding dates have moved more than 6 months from last Visa Bulletin. For Philippines it has moved more than a month. No movement for EB3 India.

We have to wait and see when they will move EB3 India dates. From the inventory data, they have 1637 applications pending for 2003 alone, whose dates are before 01 SEP 03. That explains why the date is 01 SEP 03 as for the whole FY they can give only 2962 Immigrant Visas to give for EB3 India.

Demand Data:

There is no demand data yet. We will keep a watch on that.

Links:

You can see the official January 2014 Visa Bulletin here - http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6228.html

You can see the official Demand Data here - http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

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96 comments:

  1. I would like to thank you for your efforts in maintaining this site - i closely follow it and really like to check this out any time a new bulletin is posted.
    With China EB2 Date moving to December 08, it is technically possible that india eb2's first movement in June 14 could hit december 08 date - what do you think based on historical data?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you see the I-485 link, for EB2 India to move to Dec 08, they need more than 13,000 Green Cards to give for EB2 India category. So, it depends on how much is available.
      The good part about EB2 China moving forward is that, till EB2 India reaches that date, all the spillovers that come to EB2 category will first go to EB2 India.

      Delete
  2. hi Ambals,

    you mentioned that it might start moving big from july 2014.. can you tell me what is the possibility of the date moving to 2011 in 2014 or 2015? Do you think it might move as fast as it happened earlier?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Best case at this point for EB2 India is to move till Dec 2009 in Sept 2014.

      Delete
    2. just curious, do u predict if it will move one year after that each month as it happened recently in 2010? am basically looking for when may 2011 will be current based on historical predictions and this upcoming big movement in 2014? could you please advice?

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    3. Dec 2009 in Sept 2014... I don't think it will move till the end of year 2009

      Delete
    4. May 2011 -- May be in 2015. Depends on the porting and the number of applicants between may 2010 and may 2011.

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    5. Hi Ambal,

      With 15,000 pending cases till Feb 2009 priority date per I 485 link and adding 5000 EB3 to EB2 porting for year 2014, do you thing EB2 India will move till Dec 2009 by Sep 2014? My priority date is Feb 2009. Trying to understand my chance by Sep 2014 visa bulletin. Thanks for all your work.

      Delete
  3. My EB2 India PD is Feb7th 2010, do you think in 2014 EB2 will move till my PD??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At this point it looks more like 2015.

      Delete
  4. Based on your analysis, how minimum dates might move for EB2-I in 2014?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 15-JUN-08 --> Assuming, about 5000 people port and we have about 10,000 GCs available for EB2 India.

      Delete
  5. How are you saying it will move to Dec 2009? I heard Wipro,CTS and TCS are using up all the EB1's. Will this not affect the movement of EB2 in 2014?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As per the current data available, I think that will be the best case. We will wait for next I-485 data to see how it moves.

      Delete
  6. What cut off date would the Visa bulletin reach in this FY for eb3 India. As per I 485 I think it would be November 15 2003. What is your view

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As per I-485, yes. Hopefully it will move more with porting.

      Delete
  7. HI. My PD is Mar 9, 2007 EB3 Philippines.. Just wondering if you think there will still be a good movement under this category next month because I notice they did not publish their potential movement this time,..thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes. I think it will move to 15 Mar 2007 next Visa Bulletin.

      Delete
  8. Hi,
    Thanks for maintaining this website. My PD is 9/23/2003. What is your estimate when it will be current

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Assuming I-485 inventory is correct, it will be in May 2014 for EB3 India. I am hoping there is some correction to it and there will be more porting, so it will be sooner.

      Delete
  9. HI Ambals,

    I religiously follow you blog and almost every time, it has come true also. But I am confused about one thing , you say, nowadays its 6 years from your PD.But For July 2009, you have always predicted it to be current in Sep 2014.Mine is May 2009.Please throw some light.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is around 6 years. The EB2 India has been seeing more rapid movements during the last quarter of every fiscal year. If you fall on good side, it will be 5 years, if you fall on bad side it might be 7 years.
      For the date to come to 01-Jun-09, according to I-485 inventory, about 20K visas are needed. Above this there is porting number.

      Delete
  10. I would like to thank you for your efforts in maintaining this site. I closely follow it and really like to check this out any time a new bulletin is posted.
    My PD is Oct 2009 (EB-2). How are my chances of this becoming current in FY 2014?

    Thanks !

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hi My PD is 08/13/2008 in EB2 India category. By when can we predict confidently that July BIG move will include my PD?

    Thanks
    SP

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hopefully August 2014 for EB2 India.

      Delete
  12. When do you predict PD of December 2008 will become current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. hopefully August 2014 for EB2 India.

      Delete
  13. Hi approximately when do you think EB3 will reach April 2009? Is it going to be more than 10 years from now?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At this point we have data only till August 2007 for EB3 India. As per latest I-485 inventory, there are 34336 applicants pending before that date. To clear this it will take about 12 years.

      Delete
  14. My PD is Oct 2009 (EB-2). How are my chances of this becoming current in FY 2014?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is a very slight chance in Sept 2014.

      Delete
  15. Hi Ambals, how did you figure out there are 1637 pending cases for EB3-I for the year 2003?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. CO said to AILA as per reports that they added 800 porting for each month instead of substracting for EB3 India they are recounting it so after recount EB3 India date could be at Aug 2004 by May 2014 bulletin Ambals please have your view in this

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    2. The I-485 link about should give you the approximate pending cases.

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    3. I am not sure about Aug 2004. But, surely the data needs correction, it is not very accurate atleast for 2003 and 2004 values and the demand data.

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    4. When did CO say that they are recounting EB3 india after porting. I am unable to find the details googling. Can you please share your view?

      Delete
  16. Hi Ambals,

    Very nice blog and thanks for maintaining it. !
    Me and my husband have a PD June 20 2008 and we had received RFE for birth documents , we submitted the response to them but our date was not current by then. so my question was when will we know if the response we sent was satisfactory or no ..will they decide on it only when our date is current again?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They can decide on it anytime. So, if your date is not current, give them like 90 days and call USCIS and check what the status is.

      Delete
    2. Thanks for your reply Ambals ! .. we called USCIS and placed a request and they said they will try to update our RFE response in a couple of weeks. Its been over a year and they have not responded to the RFE.. we thought its because the dates retroggessed . Do you think we have a chance of getting a GC if they think our RFE response is satisfactory even if the dates are not current?

      Thanks Again.

      Delete
  17. hi ambals,

    My PD is Nov 2009 (EB-2). can you tell me if I'll become current in FY 2014?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is a very slight possibility in Sept 2014.

      Delete
  18. Hey Ambals
    My pd is 15 dec 2012- ROW. Do you think it might be possible to become current in feb-march bulletin? Will really help to know

    ReplyDelete
  19. its actually 15 dec 2012 ROW 3

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry. I don't have any data to see how they are moving EB3 ROW.

      Delete
  20. My pd is nov'06 eb2. I applied for 485 on november mid to end( but didnt have time to submit medical docs and my lawyer said they will submit the application and we can submit that doc later i have it ready now though). when will i receive my ead card?
    my green card?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EAD -- yes within 90 days.
      Green Card -- you need to submit all the documents and then your PD has to become current.

      Delete
  21. Hi Ambal,

    With 15,000 pending cases till Feb 2009 priority date per I 485 link and adding 5000 EB3 to EB2 porting for year 2014, do you thing EB2 India will move till Dec 2009 by Sep 2014? My priority date is Feb 2009. Trying to understand my chance by Sep 2014 visa bulletin. Thanks for all your work.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dec 2009 very optimistic scenario. 01-JAN-09 is more realistic -- assuming 17,000 visas to EB2 India and 5,000 porting -- with today's data.

      Delete
    2. Thank you Ambals. Do you see Feb 2009 a reality by Sep 2014. Sorry for this picky question. Based on I 485 data till Feb 2009 we have 15000 + 5000 porting = 20000. Do you see a possibility of being current?

      Delete
    3. Hi Ambals,

      Is Feb 10 2009 priority date a reality in 2014. Please respond. Thanks

      Delete
  22. between 2012 Oct and 2013 Oct, the EB3 I demand has reduced by over 13K. Assuming 4K visas were given based on per country quota allocation, I think there were at least 8.5K - 9K port-ins. This trend should go down as I feel EB2 demand is more than EB3 demand.

    EB3 I on Oct 4 2012 - 47354
    EB3 I on Oct 1 2013 - 34336

    ReplyDelete
  23. Hi Ambals,

    I appreciate your analysis. When do you think July 2009 will be current? Will it happen in 2014 or will get pushed to 2015?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For EB2 India, there is a slight possibility in 2014.

      Delete
  24. Hi Ambals,
    I appreciate your analysis. When do you think July 2009 will be current? Will it be in 2014 or 2015?

    ReplyDelete
  25. Hi Ambals,

    I appreciate your analysis. When do you think Jan 2010 (EB2) will be current? Will it be in 2014 or 2015?

    ReplyDelete
  26. Hi ambals, what do you think will be the fate of eb3 P this fiscal year.tnx

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It should clear the existing inventory. Also, it might go till to 01-JAN-08 -- to get more inventory.

      Delete
  27. hi, my priority date is aug 7 2003, EB3 India, got 3 RFE and submitted the final one on Nov 27 2013, got confirmation that all documents we received and the case is on review. I have not heard anything for 2 weeks now, just curious how long it takes to get an answer on RFE and what are the chances that I might get approval by the end of this year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please do call USCIS and check what the update is. There is a good possibility it will come by the end of this year. All depends on how convinced they are with your RFE reply.

      Delete
    2. thank you for the reply, how do I know if there are any visas left?

      Delete
  28. When googling around, I bumped in to your site, and since then I don't fail to followup after each bulletin release.
    My PD is Jun 2004 EB3-I. Are there any hopes for my date in 2014?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As per I-485 data, there are about 10,000 folks before June 2004 EB3 India. With that it is not possible to become current in 2014. But, there might be some correction to this data by USCIS and there might be some porting. We have to wait and watch.

      Delete
  29. If Immigration reform bill is passed in 2014 with a piecemeal bill for high tech (no country limit, etc.), would that cut the average wait time from 6 to 2 years for eb2-India? Your thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  30. Hey Ambals, when do you expect DEC 1 2003 EB3 PD to become current assuming no one from sept 2=dec 1 ports?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Current I-485 inventory says, there are 1600+ folks in sept and Nov 2003, for EB3 India. With that, it is July 2014. But, I think there is some data mismanagement. I am hoping it will be much sooner.

      Delete
  31. Ambals what can you say about Eb3 Philippines with pd of July 2007?

    ReplyDelete
  32. When will EB3-I July 2004 priority date will become current ?
    Any idea based on you analysis ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As per I-485 data, there are about 10,000 folks before June 2004 EB3 India. With that it is not possible to become current in 2014. But, there might be some correction to this data by USCIS and there might be some porting. We have to wait and watch.

      Delete
  33. Hi, its been 2 months now and there are no updates on EAD and AP....can we call USCIS and check for status? or should we wait for another month before calling.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Finally AP got approved this morning, still waiting for EAD.

      Delete
    2. Good. I believe it is a dual card, so both will be in the same card.

      Delete
  34. Thanks for this awesome site.

    My priority date is Jan 15 2009, EB2 India. Do you think there is a chance of my date becoming current in 2014.



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is a chance in last quarter of 2014 (aug/sept).

      Delete
  35. If Immigration reform bill is passed in 2014 with a piecemeal bill for high tech (no country limit, etc.), would that cut the average wait time from 6 to 2 years for eb2-India? Your thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry. I thought I replied to this earlier. Yes it can reduce the wait time drastically. Even if they pass an executive order to clear 200K visas onetime, that will clear everyone in 6 months time. But, it is a long shot.

      Delete
  36. All,
    Now a days Devyani's case in discussion. One of the charges is she did not pay minimum wage to her maid (in USA). Probably government should also review salary and experience of people on H-1B visa for EB2 and EB3 category. The result would be shut down of most of the US company... Probably most of you would agree with this. Share your thaughts.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Hi Ambals,

    Is Feb 10 2009 priority date a reality in 2014. Please provide your analysis. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  38. Hi Ambals, Have been following your blog lately, you guys are doing awesome job. Thanks from all of us!

    I am EB3-India (Nov 2003). My average stay in US is 6 months (multiple trips) and rest is in India. I have been doing that for personal reasons. Being on H1, I so far have not had any issues at the immigration. My H1 expires in Apr 2014. Based on your predictions, I expect my GC by July 2014. Question: Do you see any issues if I move on to EAD and let my H1b fade into history?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is best to consult an immigration lawyer and give your specific details.

      Delete
  39. Hi,
    My priority date is August -2012 EB2,India.When do you think it can become current?Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Currently the trend is about 6 years from your priority date.

      Delete
  40. Hello Ambals,

    My PD is Dec 2010, is there any chance for it to become current in the year 2014? I have been waiting for title change to higher level for so long now.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Hello Ambals,
    I have been following your blog for very long time. Thanks for your analysis. I have a question regarding my PD. i am on Jan 22,2004.
    What are my Chances on FY 2014. thanks in Advance.

    ReplyDelete
  42. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Hi, Thank you for your analysis. My PD is June 18th, 2008 EB2I.
    When do you expect this date to get current? Thank you!

    ReplyDelete
  44. Hi Ambals
    my priority date is August 15 2008. Any chance it will become current in 2014

    ReplyDelete
  45. I see a lot of people having priority dates in the years 2008, 2009 which are still waiting to be current. Weren't they already current when EB2 moved to MAY 2010 in March 2012? Why would the applicants with PDs in 2008 and 2009 still waiting?

    ReplyDelete
  46. Hello Ambals,

    My EB3 India priority date is Oct 2004. What is a realistic expected dated for the date to be current. The wait has been horribly long.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Hi Ambals
    Any idea how many portings(eb3i to eb2i) might happen this year based on your analysis? guesstimate maybe?

    Thanks for the awesome blog.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Hi Ambals,
    You guys are awesome in tracking immigration.
    My PD is EB3 Dec 2006. If I am not mistaken, you mentioned above that, it will atleast take 12 yrs to process all pending 485s which were filed before 2007. Will immigration reform help us at all or not? Nobody knows if it will pass but will the piecemeal approach work? I am sure some segments will pass this year. What is your opinion?

    ReplyDelete
  49. First of all thanks for writing this blog & providing latest information to us. I am sure this will create a good laugh for most of the people. I have a PD of Apr 2010 in EB3 india category. That's right EB3 India. Is there a reason to even hope that something might work out in next 5 years without the reform. I can't depend on the reform as it gets shot down almost always. So just wanted to see what the experts out here think about this. Online calculators are telling me dates in the year of 2038 :) Are those realistic ...

    ReplyDelete