Saturday, July 11, 2015

August 2015 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


August 2015 Visa Bulletin was released yesterday.

EB2:

Date for EB2 India stayed at 01 OCT 08. EB2 China moved from 01 OCT 13 to 15 DEC 13. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is EB2 China is moving forward.

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 01 FEB 04 to 01 JUN 04. EB3 China retrogressed from 01 SEP 11 to 01 JUN 04. EB3 Philippines moved from Unavailable to 01 JUN 04. For all other countries the date moved from 01 APR 15 to 15 JUL 15.

Good news is the dates for most of countries have moved forward.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was released earlier this month. There are couple of interesting facts on that. One, it has only the summary data and not country specific data. Two, they have released the data now and the data was as of 1 April 2015. This does not give us much insight on latest happenings that affects the data movement.

Last I-485 inventory shows, For EB2 India, there are 21,082 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. This number was 20,263 in the previous edition.For EB3 India, it is 27,472 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. It was 29,422 in previous edition.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:

I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week. This month the data has moved 3 months. There is a possibility that it might move a month next bulletin too to apply the remaining spillovers in EB3 category. One thing to watch India, China and Philippines all three have the same cut-off date.

For EB2 India:

Looks like the I am in a totally unknown territory now. Lot of possibilities at this point. Reading from few lawfirm websites, looks like DOS is saying it will stay the same next visa bulletin. But, there is a slight possibility that it might move if the EB2 ROW demand drops this month.

What will happen from October Visa Bulletin ? Again, lot of possibilities and totally depends on DOS. Since September marks the last bulletin of the fiscal year, October can be totally new. DOS can decide to go back to their old strategy -- keep the date same till November then, retrogress totally back, say to 2005 and keep it at that till June. This may happen if they feel the reason for all the date movement this year is too much. DOS decides to be on the new strategy -- they might keep continuing with the same date and watch for porting. In that case, depending on the porting it will stay the same or move forward. The EB3 India date movement of 4 months this Visa bulletin instead of the regular 2 weeks, will help in less porting and will eventually help EB2 India as well.

For all EB2, EB3 India folks -- 
Unfortunately, if we want to be here, we all have to go through it. Yes, it is a tough long frustrating journey. Hang in there. It will get over soon.

Links:
You can see the official August 2015 Visa Bulletin here -http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-august-2015.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

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116 comments:

  1. In Sep bulletin, EB-3 india will move to Jan 2005 and then it will stay 1-2 weeks stratergy till next Aug-Sep 2016.

    Keep posting your RFE dates and it's details for EB3 folks (PD of 2004).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My status for EB3 Aug 2004 changed to Request for Additional Evidence couple of days back. What does that mean ? Also, my wife's status is not changed. Is that normal ?

      Delete
    2. It all depends on how many EB3 ROW are unused and the ongoing demand. EB3 ROW being almost current there could be more ROW filing in next few months.

      Delete
    3. Hello - what makes you think that Sep bulletin will see it move to Jan 2005?

      Delete
  2. hi, my EB2I PD is Nov 2012. When do you think it will get current?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Nov 2012? I am still waiting with PD of Dec 2009. You can guess. :-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just curious, assuming u r dec2009 eb2 India, how come you were not able to file your i485 when the dates moved to may2010 a few years back.

      Delete
    2. probably changed job during the same time...i missed that boat because i changed Job during same time...in that one year in 2011..the dates were unavailable just one month before i received my new I-140...naseeb gandu..:-)

      Delete
  4. Love your review. You almost got the devil in detail in one of the past review...awesome analysis. lately i am only waiting for your review than searching for the bulletin. Lol

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi My PD is 11Aug'08/EB2 India/485 filed on 01Jul'14/EB3 to EB2 Port/TSC, Date current since 01Jun'15. Awaiting GC since 01Jun'15. Raised SR on 09June'15 got reply on 21June'15 to wait 90days. Raised Congressional inquiry on 30Jun15 and recvied same standard reply to wait. Dont know what to do now? Called to raise SR again but was told to wait aleast 45days. Can you please advice what can i do? Lot of people from date after my PD and even RD after my RD and still got approval. I dont know how TSC works? does anyone know? Guys please help

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ask for level 2 support.

      Delete
  6. How do we ask for Level 2 support ? What is the phone no. for TSC level 2 support ?

    ReplyDelete
  7. http://immigrationview.foxrothschild.com/general-immigration-news-and-updates/unexpected-surge-in-eb-2-demand-will-negatively-impact-eb-2-india-visa-office-on-priority-dates-demand-and-predictions/?utm_source=Mondaq&utm_medium=syndication&utm_campaign=LinkedIn-integration

    ReplyDelete
  8. I think the indications are clear that there would be no significant movement of dates for EB2 india for next 12 months .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe no move till December 2015. EB3 should move atleast.

      Delete
  9. what makes u say that ..... it always follows the same pattern every year .... this year the SO was less due to ROW backlog gettin cleared but next year thing will be back to normal and eb2i will get normal SO from ROW so dates will start moving again from March 2016 onwards ... also given that eb3i is moving faster there will be less porting ...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For EB3 India, 27,472 applicants are still pending in the inventory. The strategy followed by DOS/USCIS this year was foolish and it impacted EB2-I bigtime. They should probably hold on to the dates until June next time and Move big like they did in earlier time.

      Delete
    2. i agree , but then again EB3 porter are not gonna wait for priority date.. they will upgrade irrespective of dates being current or not.

      Delete
    3. So, My EB3 PD date is Feb 2013, shall I get current in March 2016? or Soon in how many year..?

      Delete
  10. When u call for SR status again, ask for level 2 / officer assistance if it has exceeded normal processing time for your pending case.

    ReplyDelete
  11. ya maula madad , aur kitna intezar..!!

    ReplyDelete
  12. Updated I-485 inventory- Country specific

    http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_of_04-01-2015.pdf

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ambals can you post a review on this?

      Delete
    2. It does not give much insight. 2004, 2005 and 2006 numbers have increased for EB2 India. 2007 has decreased. 2008 and 2009 are pretty much the same.
      If they have released data as of July 1, that would have helped a lot.

      Delete
    3. I am really curious at those 3 in June 2011, how is it possible when EB2 india never opened up beyong May of 2010. Is it a scam ?

      Delete
  13. Hi,
    Hope everyone is doing well. Both my wife and I received an email this morning from USCIS for SR raised, I am not sure what to conclude at this time. What should I expect next?

    Email from USCIS
    The status of this service request is:
    For me: We have received your service request and researched the status of your case. We have had to perform additional review and this has caused a delay in processing time. Your case is currently in line for processing and adjudication. Cases are processed in the order in which they were received. If you do not receive a decision or notice of further action within 60 days, please contact customer service.
    What You Can Do
    Please see the "Online Services" below to check the status of your case in the future.
    We hope this information is helpful to you.
    XM 1443
    For my wife: We have received your service request and researched the status of your case. We have had to perform additional review and this has caused a delay in processing time. Your case is currently with an adjudicating officer. You should receive a decision or notice of further action.
    What You Can Do
    Please see the "Online Services" below to check the status of your case in the future.
    We hope this information is helpful to you.
    XM 1443
    Primary I-485 details:
    Priority Date -June 30, 2008
    Receipt Date -July 01, 2014
    Notice Date -July 03, 2014
    Texas Service Center
    I hope I get through this time (fingers really crossed).

    EB3 to EB2 in 2012. Got my EAD last year and got current again this time. When do you think I should see a change in status update on USCIS case tracker? It's been 1 month and 15 days and I don't see any change yet.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi,

      I am in the same boat as you. Simiar case. But my PD is Sep 22, 2008. Receipt date is Aug 06, 2014. One of my friend with teh same PD date and TSC received approval in June 23rd and got card already. I wonder what extra review they are doing

      Delete
    2. No one understands how all these things work...I wish there was some way for accountability and proper tracking. In the mean while, medicals expired end of June and I hope dates don't retrogress.

      Delete
  14. Hi Ambals,

    Can you please publish your comments regarding the I-485 inventory

    ReplyDelete
  15. whats happens to the overflow from other categories for this year? are there no overflow?

    ReplyDelete
  16. Hello Guys

    Just got an Email of Card Productions for i 485.
    PD 11Aug'08/Rd01Jul'14/TSC/EB3 to EB2 india/
    SR raised 09Jun'15 Reply received to wait 90 days on23Jun'15.
    Congrassional Inq on 07Jul'15 same reply received 11jul'15.
    Got approvals today.

    This Blog has been very very helpful and would really like to Thank Aditi and Ganesh and all the contributors.
    This is a Great Blog for all those waiting for GC.
    Requesting all the other to not move discussions to petty issues or jokes. Every questions is legitimate when you are not sure of something so be respectful to all who is waiting.
    Wishing Everyone good luck.
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. wishing you all the best. Cheers bro have fun and Jiye Jaa!! Isn't life awesome when things work out?

      Delete
    2. Great. Congratulation ! It feels like..now you can breathe peacefully right ..
      I just wanted to ask, what status your case changed to from "Fingerprinting Fee Received" ? Mine still shows as that status and PD Is Sep 22, 2008

      Delete
  17. Congratulations and very happy for you!

    ReplyDelete
  18. Forget about Green card. Go for ration card. No EB, CB, there. This EB will only give you high BP. Good luck! For any problem contact your local MLA - will recommend to USCIS.

    ReplyDelete
  19. H1B (GC = Garib Card), EB = Economically Backward categories in USA. H1B EB GC is waste of life precious years and at the end you old, even you will not get job in India. people will tell you UNCLE no jobs for you once you return back. my personal opinion and I waste some years in USA, consulting jobs sucks your all money and blood.

    ReplyDelete
  20. i wasted my 20s and 30s here while i could have spend this quality time of life back home with frnds and family. i am stuck now.. dhobi ka kutta...na..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. same here..well said..I lost my mom and then brother's marriage and still waiting for my gc. My son does not want to go back and same with wife.koi lauta de mere beete hue din..

      Delete
    2. so GC is more important then your Mom...so be it..you will get what you want....

      Delete
    3. go back to you country guys. you undercut our wages, work 70-80 hrs a week. get india productive. sincerely speacking America and we Americans don't need these cheap folks anymore. go back.

      Delete
  21. 07/17/2015: State Department Prediction of EB Cutoff Date Ahead

    According to AILA, the State Department does not anticipate India EB-2 will move ahead in September, but it can change in October if there is a decline of EB-1 and EB-2 demand by other countries before September 2015 cut-off date determination.
    EB-3 for India, China, and Philipppines are predicted to move ahead a few months in September 2015
    China EB-3 may move ahead in October to either 2010 or even 2011.

    No movt for eb2I

    ReplyDelete
  22. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ar6Dprt7VeZzdElRQ1RiSzJUN0FjMU9lMURiSFJ1MHc&usp=sharing#gid=13

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So for FY 2015 (Ending Sept 2015), the best is 1st Oct 2008 and Realistic is 1st March,2009. Is it?

      Delete
  23. As per IV :-
    In July it was about making current every category.

    Carrot carrot ........................

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. IV is a joke

      Delete
    2. They are also saying that by Oct lot of people will be current...

      Delete
    3. They have made themselves a JOKE.

      Delete
    4. IV !!!!!

      Ha ha ha ha ........

      Delete
    5. They are the Rakhi Sawant of the immigration world.

      Delete
  24. Will there be EB2I retrogression in October, I hope not.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Thanks for the blog. I only see your blog once in few months and it gives me everything I need to know on the summary level. Keep it up and thanks once again !!!!

    ReplyDelete
  26. http://www.murthy.com/2015/07/21/newsflash-uscis-revises-deadline-requirements-for-h1b-amendments-following-employee-relocation/

    ReplyDelete
  27. eb3 india 2004 dec, how long?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Go and ask Obama, not here.

      First try to learn how to ask a question, this area is not
      your country Bus stand counter to ask "how long" ?

      Delete
    2. Why are you being so rude to the person asking this question? Please, there is no need to be this nasty. He is not taking up anyone's priority number.

      Delete
  28. Laughing myself out of the chair knowing thef fact that EB1 India got 820 visas in just January 2015. I don't even want to say Really!

    ReplyDelete
  29. LOL... Good One !

    ReplyDelete
  30. http://www.visalaw.com/july-2015-siskinds-summary-of-the-white-house-visa-modernization-report/

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/final_visa_modernization_report1.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  31. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  32. EB2-I-2010 June.

    How long ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. May be 9+ yrs

      So if you are 38 now, you may get it by 47 or 48.

      Delete
    2. bad math. it is 9+ years from priority date, so he has already clocked 5 years. if he is 38 now he will get it when he is 42 ;-).

      Delete
  33. "For all EB2, EB3 India folks -- Unfortunately, if we want to be here, we all have to go through it. Yes, it is a tough long frustrating journey. Hang in there. It will get over soon."

    "if we want to be here, we all have to go through it."
    Very nice comment...test of patience...
    11 years in this country...still no where...

    ReplyDelete
  34. EB2ROW demand is finally slowing down this month so strong possibility of movt in next VB maybe 3 to 5 mths movt .....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How do you know that its slowing down ?

      Delete
    2. Check out Q's forum that tracks trackitt data in July jut 25 approvals as compared to 96 approvals in June so big slowdown in eb2row means possible SO for eb2i

      Delete
  35. Expect I140 EAD announcement very soon. My attorney mentioned that it may come in any time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No way thats possible earliest is March/April 2016 as it has to go through rule-making process

      Delete
    2. As per following attorney blog, announcement for I140 EAD rule is expected in 6-12 months from Nov 2014. Hope announcement will come soon. Finger crossed :)

      https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20141121144202-70453927-obama-s-gift-to-workers-with-approved-i-140s-who-change-jobs

      Delete
    3. I agree with the timeline March/April 2016. The is still in progress. USCIS is planning to submit the proposed rule to OMB in October of 2015. After that this rule has to go through comments and any adjustments. Lot more needs to be done before they announce this. I don't expect this until MID 2016. Again I got his reference from Greg Siskind's twitter posts.

      Delete
  36. EAD for I-140 has to happen.
    It is not good that all these EB2 & EB3 wait for 10-15 years.

    We should protest it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Abe bhad mein ja tera sasur nahi hai
      Protest votest

      Delete
    2. Ke pag ghoongroo baandh meera nachee thee..........

      Delete
    3. bhai kyu meera ko nacha rahe ho bat bat pe... lol

      Delete
  37. Yah, humari maange poori ho

    ReplyDelete
  38. Any EB2 prediction in upcoming August Bulletin ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. some blog predicts movement to Feb 2009

      Delete
    2. No movement guaranteed.

      Delete
  39. eb3 pd dec 2004 got i485 approved on august 2nd2015

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Congrats, eb3 India Pd December 2004?

      Delete
    2. No kidding...dates not even moved beyond June 2004 eb3 How come you got it ??

      Delete
  40. The Visa Bulletin 2016 is coming soon, based on the previous month for India, there is a chance of progression to September 2009 but also a slight chance of retrogression to 2006.

    source: http://immigrationlegalblog.com/

    ReplyDelete
  41. My employer sucks.....He is reducing my hourly rate even when client is giving him SAME hourly rate....is anyone in the same boat? Waiting for some changes in the VB process.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What is your age, Sir ??

      Delete
    2. What difference does that make? but anyway I am 40.

      Delete
  42. The dates in Sep 2013 and Sep 2014 visa bulletins have been Jun 08 and May 09. So is there a reason why the dates are still at Oct 08. Wouldn't the backlog till Jun 08 been cleared by now. Worst case, let's say the porting is 3000. Even then the dates are not moving ahead. Any one knows how this is calculated or done ?.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. it all depends on how the others have used the Visa numbers. Normally there is Spillover which comes to EB2, which are used up by India and so the dates move forward. But for this year, they say that there will be very little spill overs coming to EB2 and thats why the dates will not go forward.

      Delete
  43. September visa bulletin is out. India EB1 priority date is 01JAN06

    ReplyDelete
  44. September visa bulletin is out. India EB2 priority date is 01JAN06

    ReplyDelete
  45. EB2 India goes back to 1 Jan 2006 ....

    ReplyDelete
  46. Bad news EB2 both India and China retrogressed to 2006, good news Eb3 advanced to Dec 2004.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Better to keep eb3 date, no porting required....

      Delete
  47. My priority date is Dec 21 2004 eb3

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Congrats buddy :-)

      Delete
    2. congrats girl your PD is current. Maaza karo.

      Delete
    3. congrats you PD is current

      Delete
  48. thanks to all the desi consulting companies.. for consuming all EB1 numbers and making sure there is no spill overs this time.. first time in the history of last 15 years.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dude, there is a letter to congress that you can sign online to stop eb1c. Just do your part. SIGN IT! It's online and no postage is required. Just in Jan of 2015, nearly 900 applications are approved in one month. Take a guess how many of them are truly eligible and if they can be compared with EB1A/EB1B who are scholars. The regulations for EB1C seems to be JUST nasty! I personally don't care they are getting green cards. I just can't digest the fact that they are slowing the whole world down.

      Delete
    2. The number 900 I specified above is not right. This is what we saw in pending inventory of April version. So, this could be even a very big number

      Delete
  49. Disappointed..stucked in quota system in US as well.... why this quota is not leaving me alone????

    ReplyDelete
  50. Replies
    1. HAHA ..... LOL.................

      Delete
  51. http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-september-2015.html

    ReplyDelete
  52. ambals the new inventory is out http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/files/nativedocuments/EB_I485_Pending_Inventory_07202015.pdf could you please provide feedback. thanks much!

    ReplyDelete
  53. based on latest 485 inventory, EB1 demand is going up very fast in last 2 years. Specifically in 2015 more than 2.5k/month. EB2 ROW demand also gone up this year. If this trends in EB1/EB2ROW continue, there will be no spillover thus no movement at all in EB2-I for FY 16. :(

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. it has increased but not a lot basically approx 3k more than last year main culprit bieng India EB1C managers

      Delete
  54. Hi Ambals,

    I see that you provide very informational analysis on the Visa Bulletin released by USCIS mostly the same day or the day after. May I know if we can expect to see your analysis for the September VB soon? Me and few of my friends really appreciate the analysis you provided for the previous monthly visa bulletins.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Ganesh Ambal please anlyze august visa bulletin

    ReplyDelete
  56. Ganesh Ambal, Why dates are retrogressed in EB2. Please analyse. What can we expect next year in current situation?

    ReplyDelete
  57. Sounds like Ambal is recovering from the latest visa bulletin aftermath.. let us all give him some time and a happy weekend.

    ReplyDelete