Tuesday, August 23, 2011

September Visa Bulletin and Analysis

September 2011 Visa Bulletin was released earlier this month and the priority dates are 15 APR 07 for EB2 India and 08 JUL 02 for EB3 India. For China, the numbers are 15 APR 07 for EB2 and 15 JUL 04 for EB3.

EB2 India stayed at 15 APR 07. The EB3 India has moved a month and 7 days compared to last visa bulletin.

It was a big disappointment for everyone. Lot of folks were expecting EB2 India to become current. Personally, I was expecting it to move at-least till 01-Jul-07. All the predictions went down the drain.

The reduction in pace for EB2 India movement, might be due to larger number of porting from EB3 to EB2. The number of cases in consular processing would have also caused this. All my calculations were based on availability of 30,000 green cards for EB2 India category through spillover from EB1, EB4, EB5 and EB2 other countries. We have to wait for another 3 months for USCIS to release the actual number of green cards given under difference categories.

The demand numbers were released by state department earlier this month. It states that as of 8 August 2011, there are 4,925 I-485 applications pending under EB2 India category. It also says there are 55,250 pending applications under EB3 India category. Theoretically, most of the EB3 India numbers are capable of porting to EB2. So, it is a number to keep a watch.

Now, the bigger question is when will the EB2 dates move again. FY 2012 - the new fiscal year starts on 1-Oct-11. Last year (FY 2011), the EB2 India stayed on 08-May-06 from Oct 2010 to Apr 2011 visa bulletin. The first movement was seen in May 2011 visa bulletin. The year before that (FY 2010), the EB2 India dates stayed on 22-JAN-05 from Oct 2009 to Feb 2010 visa bulletin. Given this and the porting from EB3 to EB2, I don't expect the dates to move for at-least another 4 months. I will be glad if it moves from Feb 2012 visa bulletin onwards. Realistically I think it will move only in April 2012 bulletin. But, given the September visa bulletin, you will never know.

For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change. The reason being there is no spill over to EB3. Hence only about 2800 green cards are given for this category every year.

To view the September 2011 Visa Bulletin -- Click Here

To view the demand data as of August 8, 2011 -- Click Here

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  1. Is there any way i can contact you via email. I wanted some projections, my email id is sreejithvijayan@gmail.com

  2. Hi there ,

    Your analysis is quite detailed and informative, whats the predictions after you see October visa bulletin moving 3 months to July 2007. Can i contact you by email. my email is manas.sail@gmail.com

  3. Please visit my petition the the new WHITE HOUSE sponsored petition site for EB2 visas. Pres. Obama has to respond if we reach 5000 signatures...


  4. Please sign this petition: