October 2011 Visa Bulletin and analysis

October 2011 Visa Bulletin was released yesterday and the priority dates are 15 JUL 07 for EB2 India and 15 JUL 02 for EB3 India. For China, the numbers are 15 JUL 07 for EB2 and 08 AUG 04 for EB3.

EB2 India moved from 15 APR 07 in September visa bulletin to 15 JUL 07. The EB3 India has moved 7 days compared to last visa bulletin.

There goes the predictions again. Given the history of last 2 years and given the fact that FY 2012 starts in Oct 2011 for USCIS, I thought the dates will stay put for EB2 India as it was in the last visa bulletin. But, USCIS and DOS has a different calculation. They say this in the visa bulletin link given below,

"China and India: The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India. The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use. Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility."

What I do not understand is, if USCIS wants to build the pipeline, the dates should have gone to 01 SEP 07, this way all those with AUG 07 priority date who have not been able to file during 2007 can file their 485s. My estimate is about 1500 applications for that. But now with 15 JUL 07, the extra applications is going to be minimal - the folks who got married later and want to add dependents to their primary application.

The demand numbers were released by state department earlier this month. It states that as of 8 September 2011, there are 5,000 I-485 applications pending under EB2 India category, compared to 4,925 last month. It also says there are 54,000 pending applications under EB3 India category compared to 55,250 last month. Theoretically, most of the EB3 India numbers are capable of porting to EB2. So, it is a number to keep a watch.

Now, question for this month is, how long is the date going to stay at 15 JUL 07. As we can clearly see, there are about 4200 new applicants will be covered in this who have priority date after 15 APR 07, and who have already filed. This is based on the previous available inventory and from the demand numbers. Also, as the demand data indicates there is good amount of porting happening from EB3 to EB2. Given all this, my guess is as follows: Best case scenario is USCIS will keep this date for another 6 months, then the spill over will be favorable for EB2 India and hence, there won't be any retrogressing the date. The worst case will be USCIS realizes its demand next month and there is more porting, so the date will go back to 15 APR 07.

For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change. The reason being there is no spill over to EB3. Hence only about 2800 green cards are given for this category every year.

To view the October 2011 Visa Bulletin -- Click Here

To view the demand data as of September 8, 2011 -- Click Here