November 2011 Visa Bulletin and analysis

November 2011 Visa Bulletin was released today and the priority dates are 01 NOV 07 for EB2 India and 22 JUL 02 for EB3 India. For China, the numbers are 01 NOV 07 for EB2 and 22 AUG 04 for EB3.

EB2 India moved from 15 JUL 07 in October Visa Bulletin to 01 NOV 07 in November Visa Bulletin. The EB3 India has moved 7 days compared to last visa bulletin.

First surprise is that they released the visa bulletin today as oppose to 8th or 9th of every month. Second is that the EB2 India movement. As mentioned in the earlier blog, the October visa bulletin could not have generated enough application pipeline for EB2 India category. Now, moving the date to 01 NOV 07 might generate about 3500 more applications. But, if it generates more demand than the number of visas given in previous years, they may retrogress. They say this in the visa bulletin link given below,

"D. CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

The November Employment-based Second preference cut-off date for applicants from China and India is the most favorable since August 2007. This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices. While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility. "

The demand numbers were also released today. It states that as of 5 OCT 2011, there are 3,000 I-485 applications pending under EB2 India category, compared to 5,000 last month. It also says there are 53,650 pending applications under EB3 India category compared to 54,000 last month. Theoretically, most of the EB3 India numbers are capable of porting to EB2. So, it is a number to keep a watch. Also, this is the start of new Fiscal Year - FY 2012.

Another number to keep watch is EB5 visa category. EB2 benefits a lot from the spill over in EB5 category. But this year, the White House and the USCIS has taken EB5 very seriously. Even last month, they have been advertising and publicizing it, in all the countries. I read in newspapers such as "The Hindu" and "Times of India" that they have conducted workshops in various cities in India, to attract investors under this program. If this gains momentum to fully utilize the number, then it will bring down the 20,000 odd EB2 India green card numbers.

Now, the question is, how long is the date going to stay at 01 NOV 07 or move ahead or retrogress. Given all above, my guesstimate is the dates will move forward again for about a month in December visa bulletin.

Best case scenario is USCIS will keep this date or keep moving forward for another 6 months, then the spill over will be favorable for EB2 India and hence, there won't be any retrogressing the date. The worst case will be USCIS realizes its demand is more than the available visa numbers, so the date will go back to 15 APR 07.

For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change. The reason being there is no spill over to EB3. Hence only about 2800 green cards are given for this category every year.

To view the November 2011 Visa Bulletin -- Click Here

To view the demand data as of October 5, 2011 -- Click Here