Estimated 150,000 Green Cards are expected to be given this year under Employment Based Green Card category.
Last few years EB2 India has received good amount of spill overs. Unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case).
The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806
Average of the above numbers is 17,632. Last year number is 17,193.
First question is, when will the dates start moving again ?
Typically, the movement for EB2 India is expected from June visa bulletin as it is the start of the last 4 months in the fiscal year, where spillovers can be applied. But, last year, DOS moved the dates only in August Visa Bulletin. So, depending on which strategy they use, the EB2 India dates can start moving as early as June 2014 Visa Bulletin or as late as August 2014 Visa Bulletin.
Next question will be, how much will it move ?
Again, depending on the DOS strategy, whenever they move, they can move all at once or in stages every visa bulletin -- which, I think can be between 01 JAN 08 (to move in stages) and as late as 01 OCT 09.
Next question will be, What are the scenarios for Sept 2014 visa bulletin EB2 India date ?
Best Case Scenario:
The best number in the previous few years is 23,997. Assuming that number and assuming very less porting that leaves about 23,000 visas. Then, according to numbers in Jan 2014 I-485 pending inventory, the date will move to 01 OCT 09.
Worst Case Scenario:
The least number in the previous few years is 10,106. Assuming that number and assuming there is lot of porting that leaves only 6000 visas. Then, according to numbers in Jan 2014 I-485 pending inventory, the date will move to 15 AUG 08.
Most Likely Scenario:
According to me, the most likely scenario is 01 MAR 09 -- assuming about 16,000 visas available and 2400 porting and few pending for more time due to RFE and other scenarios.
I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory
EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html
Annual Limits and Spill Over rule for FY 2014 --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf