Estimated 144,730 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2014 and 30 September 2015 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.
Last few years EB2 India has received good amount of spill overs. Unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case).
The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:
FY 2014 - 23,527
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806
Average of the above numbers is 18,474. Last year number is 23,527.
Last Fiscal year, DOS had a strategy to keep the dates the same for EB2 India till the last quarter and then move big. This year, they are following a different strategy of moving slowly every visa bulletin.
Let us see different scenarios for Sept 2015 visa bulletin EB2 India date.
Best Case Scenario:
The best number in the previous few years is 23,997. Assuming that number and assuming less porting. Then, according to numbers in Oct 2014 I-485 pending inventory, the date will clear the inventory and move to 01 MAY 10.
Worst Case Scenario:
The least number in the previous few years is 10,106. Assuming that number and assuming there is lot of porting that leaves only 7000 visas. Then, according to numbers in Oct 2014 I-485 pending inventory, the date will move to 01 MAY 09.
Most Likely Scenario:
According to me, the most likely scenario is 01 FEB 10 -- assuming about 16,000 visas available and 4000 porting and few pending for more time due to RFE and other scenarios.
I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory
EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html
Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf