Tuesday, March 17, 2015

What to expect in FY 2015 - EB2 India Priority Date Movement and Analysis


Estimated 144,730 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2014 and 30 September 2015 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.

Last few years EB2 India has received good amount of spill overs. Unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case).

The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2014 - 23,527
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

Average of the above numbers is 18,474. Last year number is 23,527.

Last Fiscal year, DOS had a strategy to keep the dates the same for EB2 India till the last quarter and then move big. This year, they are following a different strategy of moving slowly every visa bulletin.

Let us see different scenarios for Sept 2015 visa bulletin EB2 India date.

Best Case Scenario:
The best number in the previous few years is 23,997. Assuming that number and assuming less porting. Then, according to numbers in Oct 2014 I-485 pending inventory, the date will clear the inventory and move to 01 MAY 10.
Worst Case Scenario:
The least number in the previous few years is 10,106. Assuming that number and assuming there is lot of porting that leaves only 7000 visas. Then, according to numbers in Oct 2014 I-485 pending inventory, the date will move to 01 MAY 09.
Most Likely Scenario:
According to me, the most likely scenario is 01 FEB 10 -- assuming about 16,000 visas available and 4000 porting and few pending for more time due to RFE and other scenarios.

Data Sources:
I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

Related Posts by Categories



Widget by Scrapur

142 comments:

  1. Thanks this is very helpful. Considering the most likely scenario, what are the chances of getting EAD in 2015 for May 30, 2010 PD - EB2.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Great News and amazing analysis! I love this blog, kudos to Ambals and everyone contributing on it. I see the demand data till April 2010 is about 21k for EB2-India. If they maintain the pace of 23k applications, great chances of getting EAD and GC for anyone with a PD before Feb 2010. Did I make this assumption correctly?

    ReplyDelete
  3. ambals - do you expect retrogression given the dates are moving every month this time around....can dates remain same post sept 2015 bulletin....this will help get GC same year as EAD.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hello Ambal and everyone here,

    when do you think EB2 Oct 2009 will be current.

    Appreciate your comments.



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It will be next year

      Delete
  5. Do you think EB2 OCT 2010 can be current by end of this year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It will be current next year.

      Delete
  6. Does one loose the eb2 NIW status, awaiting green card, if takes a break for 2-3 months and leaves the country

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No. NIW EB2 is different. You dont lose status.

      Delete
  7. Hello, how long do you think that it will take for EB2 september 2012 to become current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It will be in 2017,

      Delete
  8. April 2015 pending 485 Inventory will give a slightly better picture of where we are headed for end of FY2015..

    EB2 Sep 2012 - You should be mentally prepared for 2017 I think

    ReplyDelete
  9. What about May 2004?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Great insights!

    So how long does it usually take to get GC in hand after PD becomes current, assuming no new queries?
    (My PD is Dec 2008 EB2I, applied at Texas SC)

    Also, why do some people need to contact their Congressmen for GC? Like what part of the process do they help facilitate or expedite?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You should get within the same month, after it comes current, assuming you have applied for I-485 already. If not, then contacting Senator might speed up the process.

      Delete
  11. Good insights. Do you think the elections for 2016 would have an impact? we've seen dates advance rapidly in years prior to elections (like '07, '11, etc). Is there a chance for '15?

    ReplyDelete
  12. so, can we expect PD July 2011 for EB2- I by the end of this year

    ReplyDelete
  13. Information from Oh Law firm (Just Sharing)

    03/18/2015: State Department Prediction of Visa Bulletin Movement Post April 2015

    According to the AILA, Mr. Charles Oppenheim predicts the following:
    India EB-2: It will continue to advance at a steady pace for another two months before slow down or holding toards the end of this fiscal year (09/30/2015)
    India EB-3: Just one or two weeks movement per month
    China EB-2: Some movement may be possibe, but should excessive demand takes place, some move-back can be considered.
    China EB-3: Not too promising.
    China EB-5: Retrogession in June or earlier.
    Worldwide EB-3: Another big move ahead in May. However, may not see "current" within this fiscal year.
    Overall, somewhat disappointing, but better than retrogression!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This does not match the analysis done on this blog post.

      Delete
    2. Can you please elaborate on how it does not match ?

      Delete
  14. Good insights. I can keep good hopes with my pd mid june 2009. Thank you Ambals.

    ReplyDelete
  15. What does this mean for EB2 India in the next few visa bulletins(May and June) and by 09/30/2015

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. May, June VB will move 8-10 months each (Summer 09) and later Spillover will cover First half of 10. My best guess...

      Delete
  16. EB2 India should expect 7 Years or more.

    So, whoever is asking that "My priority date is xx/xx/xxxx EB2-I, when do you think it will be current OR at least I will get EAD ?"..........
    Answer is :-
    Add 7 Years to year Priority date.
    Thats the date you will be current.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not sure if this is entirely true. I don't want to start an argument, but from Ambal's blog post on what to expect in 2015, and the demand before April 2010 being about 21k, it is fair to be making assumptions on the data rather than giving a time line of X years.

      Delete
    2. BHU se Pamistry pade ho kya ji? 7 Years itna surely bol rahe ho, Stop speculating... Learn the Inventory Data and no one knows when date will be current... i have not seen anyone's best calculation guess ever match vb dates... kuch bhi, people having 2012 PD will get fast EAD/GC as filing in late 2011 was lower... So STOP Speculating...

      Delete
    3. My(EB2 India) PD is Oct 2009,Applied for I-485 in Feb 2012 and replied to RFE in July 2014,Any chances that my PD is current again in July-Oct 2015.

      Delete
    4. Koi pharak nehin padta hai ji...........BHU se Pamistry padho ya Inventory data............7 saal maraana hai tou maraana hai..........
      Aur saat saal ke baad kuchh bachega nehin marne ko :)

      Delete
  17. We need to sop the porting from EB3 to EB2, Every one has their own queue of wait or Limit the number of portings like what we have Green Card. Otherwiese EB2 will become EB3.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. lol....I agree...EB2 will become EB3.

      Delete
    2. As if this is in your hands ...

      Delete
    3. yeah may be some also port from EB2 to EB3 just to help out your country men

      Delete
    4. Understand this much the spillover law was changed without congress consent by desi organisation called IV for the benefit of eb2 India so porting will happen and that is legal if the spillover law is not changed during 2008 then eb2 India will be now 2008and eb3 India will be now 2006 time will not spare crab IV s

      Delete
  18. Ambal..any comment on the Mr. Charles Oppenheim prediction as per the above comment.. this does not seems very encouraging..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He didn't to what date it will move. All he has told is they will move faster now and will slow down later.

      Delete
    2. Do you have projections on how the dates will move after sept 2015 for rest of year? Don't they want to build the inventory and move the dates further out?

      Delete
  19. did anyone attend today's uscis teleconference. if so please share the thoughts..thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yes, i did. Completely useless.. Nothing substantive..

      Delete
  20. My priority date is 11 June 2011 . Could you shed some light on what my best case and worst case scenarios are ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2018 Sep - best case

      Delete
    2. You can expect in 2017

      Delete
    3. EAD should be 2016

      Delete
    4. Friend, Nobody knows.stop asking this question.

      Delete
  21. 2028 Sep - Worst Case.

    ReplyDelete
  22. My priority date is Jan 23rd 2010. What is the best case to get the EAD in 2015 ?

    ReplyDelete
  23. Best Case is 2025.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Mine is EB2 Jan 23rd 2010. Is it going to take 10 years ? Ambal Can you please shed some light here ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wait ...bringing torch lite...

      Delete
  25. Hi Ambal,

    I have did some calculations with data and the reason for me was to figure out where can I expect my GC. From OCT 2009 to June 2013 , there are 76130 PERMs are approved for Indians, so if we multiply this number with 2.25 , it would be Total 171292 visa numbers needed to reach till June 13. By seeing the historical data , lets say if we get avg 19000 visa for Eb2 india as SO still it would take 9 years to become the date current,(171292/19000).

    Is this the correct calculation which I have made from the numbers ?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nice calculation. But I'm not sure if all perms will go to EB2 only. I think some of them may go towards EB3 too.

      Delete
    2. yes , The numbes belong to both Eb2 and Eb 3 , even if we count 60 % (Eb2 Cases, I believe the number would be somewhere 75 % of the total) of total number it would take 6 years and 2 years already gone so it would be take 6 yrs to clear from now+ 2 yrs already gone from 13 = so total 8 yrs from 2013, have to wait for priority date. - Whats your tought on this Ambal ?

      Delete
  26. Eb2 Oct 2010. When will it become current ? Any chance of EAD or GC this year?

    ReplyDelete
  27. Eb2 india oct 2010. When to expect EAD & GC

    ReplyDelete
  28. Hi Ambal,

    Mine is EB2 Jan 23rd 2010. Please let me know what is the best possible chance to get EAD in 2015 ?

    ReplyDelete
  29. I dont think so this year. Stupid Immigration system, and EB2 Porting.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Any guess on when EB2, PD May 2012 will be current? 2019?

    ReplyDelete
  31. this is wrong analysis. oct 2013 pending I485 were around 32539, if 23527 visas were issues we should have only ~9000 EB2 pending for oct 2014. but we have 20263 pending cases for EB2 at 2014 Oct. and this difference doesn't match to reduction in EB3 count which is around 5k, half of which may have gone to EB2 porting,

    I am not sure how the uscis has given 23500 visa of EB2. may be it is the dependent which were not counted ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. any comments from the Aditi and Ganesh ?

      Delete
    2. I though I-485 numbers represent only the primary petitioners, whereas the visa numbers included the family members.

      Delete
    3. 9000*2.5 =22500
      1 applicant and 1.5 applicant family
      9000 applicants equal to approx 22500 visas required

      Delete
    4. I think you may have hit a flaw in Ambal's analysis wrt family applicant numbers :-(, too bad I got hopeful for a second there.

      Delete
  32. Is there a way to port to EB3 from EB2 ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sure dot quickly, time is running out. Contact any advocate they will help you. Prepare yourself to spend some $'s and you are good to go.

      All the best.

      Delete
  33. My priority date is July 2011 EB2. Any chances of getting EB2 in 2016 ? What is the likely period for GC. I am contemplating a job change since I have been stuck in a dead end job for too long waiting for GC. Would you guys recommend against changing at this point ? Appreciate your suggestions.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. dude. stop asking such questions. no one knows when it is going to happen.

      Delete
  34. most likely ead 2016

    ReplyDelete
  35. It will get current in 2017. Yes you can change your job, but you need to start the process from beginning and you can port your old date.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Hi There .. Thanks for the great analysis ..

    My priority date is July 2010 EB2. Is there chance of obtaining EB2 in 2015 ? Appreciate your insights ..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. does it matter if someone says yes or no. fact is no one can tell for sure. so just sit tight and support all immigration reforms. and live your life without much fear.

      Delete
  37. 03/27/2015: Senate Passed FY 2016 Funding Resolution with Disappointment for Employers and High-Tech Foreign Workers

    There were over a thousand of amendments to this continuing resolution, but there was only one amendment which would have benefitted the high tech industry and high tech foreign workers. It was Amendment #1025 (initially designated as #646) favorably supporting H-1B annual cap increase, allocation of unused employment-based immigration visa numbers, H-4 spouse employment authorization, and exempt STEM foreign workers from the H-1B annual cap. This was introducted by Sen. Orrin Hatch, but record shows that this amendment was withdrawn! What a disappointment!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. we need more GC numbers before H1, otherwise backlog will increase exponentially. anyways there is a separate bill for all these stuff which makes more sense then adding it with budget bill.

      Delete
  38. Here is another way to predict EB2 Priority Date movement.

    Oct 2013 - May 2008 was current
    Oct 2014 - May 2009 was current
    Oct 2015 - May 2010 will be current

    Now, don't be too picky. This may be off by a month or two, but if you have waited for years, I'm sure few months here or there isn't a big deal. Peace out!

    ReplyDelete
  39. I agree with you,This is possible as the dates already move until that time(May 201) in the April 2012 Visa Bulletin.

    My PD is Oct 2009 for the EB2 India.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Ambal,
    According to your analysis if most likely scenario is 01FEB10, Doing so will result in decrease in inventory.

    In this scenario I have a question:
    After Oct 2015, will they start building the inventory again?
    For example, will they move the priory date significantly (say DEC-2012) during next for couple of months (say OCT-2015 and Nov-2015 bulletin) to build the inventory list again?


    Another question:
    For most folks if not GC, they want EAD. Can you through light on status of new immigration law, where folks with I-140 will be eligible for EAD. Some forums say its most likely going to happen in 2015.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Can you share the links of forums where they say its most likely going to happen in 2015?

      Delete
    2. http://resultsocean.com/2015/03/30/ead-for-all-i140-approvals-on-h1b-predicted-by-september-2015/

      Delete
  41. My priority date is 2014 Feb - EB3I

    What is your prediction of getting GC ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2024 earliest

      Delete
    2. Friend -
      EB3I is moving just by a week and it is somewhere in 2004.

      So, go back to INDIA. It's waste of time and money. You can at least stay with your family and friends.

      First of all why indians are behaving like beggars?. Is there no life without GC ?

      Delete
    3. Don't understand this priority dates etc, please explain

      Delete
  42. This is a Million dollar question and BTW hard to predict.Simply "No Data Found" even after 2025.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, I can port to EB2-I after 3-4

      Delete
    2. Here is another porting.......EB2-I will never move forward.

      We must start a candle light march in DC.

      Delete
    3. I like the candle light march idea...

      Delete
  43. This blog is very informative, my PD is EB2 DEC 2010, Can you please let me know when will my date get current? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  44. I think it will take 2 more years

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Really? Based on inventory I thought around June 2016 eb2 Dec 2010 will get current

      Delete
  45. Hi,

    I find this blog very helpful.

    My priority date is 2013 Dec in EB3-India.
    Can you please let me know when can I get my GC !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Next Month for sure.

      Delete
    2. I think you will get sometime in July/ August'ish ... The only thing I don't know is the year ...

      Delete
    3. You mean to say this year !!!

      Delete
    4. Laughed hard at some of the responses. Not right to make fun of a newbie though :) - after all he's in the race too - maybe at the beginning of the line - but he has hopes too.

      Delete
    5. good luck and good night....tomorrow is a new day....

      Delete
    6. 2013 EB3 India?; Go back to INDIA and stay with family and friends. That's much better.

      Delete
  46. It will be difficult to predict my friend. lets hope some reform happens.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Man....hoping for reform from past several years....nothing happens...!!

    ReplyDelete
  48. Hi everyone here. My priority date is 2008 Aug EB2 when can I expect GC.

    ReplyDelete
  49. Hi everyone .My priority date is 2008 Aug EB2 INDIA.when can I expect Greencard.

    Thanku.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tomorrow By Priority Mail from Indian Postal Service.If i'm not wrong are you expecting Aadhar Card..right ?

      Delete
    2. He is talking about Green card, not your aadhar card....

      Delete
    3. Did you apply ration card first?.

      Delete
  50. Ahh USCIS... I wonder why they are so late in publishing the latest I-485 Inventory!!... normally in previous years they would publish one by April 4th. May be they are busy adjudicating cases which is good as there has been really good movement in the PD's which hasn't been the case in the last few years. But thats my theory. What do you all think? Anxious to see the inventory. March 2009 PD EB2 and hoping to be greened this year!!... fingers crossed!!!

    ReplyDelete
  51. when you guys thing late May 2010 EB2 India will get current ?

    ReplyDelete
  52. last I-485 inventory was around 12th Jan.. expect the new inventory around 12th April or after that.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Jan 2010 EB2 india P.D... i missed the I-485 filing before.. from your blog it looks like i might get lucky this year?

    ReplyDelete
  54. FY2016 for the late May 2010 EB2 India will get current.

    ReplyDelete
  55. VB Released EB2I Jumped to 10 months. Great News!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are you still high from your weekend hangover ??

      Delete
  56. The USCIS has decided that there's going to be no VB this month and they will publish a consolidated one next month.

    ReplyDelete
  57. May VB released its Apr 15-2008 for EB2 India

    ReplyDelete
  58. http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-may-2015.html

    ReplyDelete
  59. It's 15th April, 2008

    ReplyDelete
  60. May VB is out. EB2I moves to 15APR08

    ReplyDelete
  61. The May VB is out.

    EB2-I - 15APR08
    EB2-C - 01JUN12

    EB5-C - 01MAY13

    EB3-ROW/M - 01JAN15
    EB3-P - 01JUL07
    EB3-I - 15JAN04

    ReplyDelete
  62. EB2 -I Went to 15APR08.

    ReplyDelete
  63. EB2 India moved to april 15 2008 in May 2015 bulletin!!

    ReplyDelete
  64. Hi Guys..As MAY 15 bulletin is out...can someone who knows the process tell me that they have started applying spillover visas or they will apply in last bulletin.

    They moved the date from sep 07 to apr 08, based on pending I 485 inventory, they covered approx 1200 visa numbers for EB2 India.
    My question is that this 1200 number is coming from regular allotment or from spillover ?
    Again based on inventory there are 3017 number still pending for 08, and 10000 for 09.
    So if from now on, EB2 india gets more then 13K visa then will full 09 will be covered ?

    ReplyDelete
  65. It has been released. EB2 has moved to 15APR08

    ReplyDelete
  66. It's out India EB2 Apr 15-2008 and China moved to 2012.

    ReplyDelete
  67. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  68. My PD is July 2009. When can I expect it to be current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Did you miss to file last time or you have EAD? I think it will be current by July VB.

      Delete
  69. Where did you find or where i should look for that How much Spillover India got in FY 2014. Where did u find "FY 2014 - 23,527"

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

      Delete
    2. As we know that India EB2 already advanced to April 2008, so we can deduct 151+174+199+214 from 3755 pending inventory for Year 2008 which is approx 3100 and then we are left with 10,031 + 4801 pending inventory from 2009 and 2010. However, i am not confident on this Jan 2015 Inventory data, Data is not accurate i.e. i am convinced.

      Another Question is How did you find that in FY 2014 india got 23,527 green card issued because last year india got great number of spillover.

      Can you point me where to look for and what is the exact number of Spillover india got? (I see you answered my query, So don't bother)

      Now, Lets see the pending inventory, if we add 3100 + 10031 + 4801 it comes around 18k approx.. And i am being positive here because this year almost all the category is current and we expect huge number of Spillover than last year. Even we get 18k Spillover then it will clear the inventory by Aug VB (God Bless my calculation and make it true).

      Question is When they will start moving the date beyond 1 May 2010, If Spillover clears the inventory which is highly anticipated. And to what date they will move it to?
      example - 1 Jan 2012 or 1 June 2012. How to anticipate this strategy?

      Please share your thoughts.

      Delete
    3. It totally depends on DOS Strategy. My guess at this point is, they will move like 6 months -- say to 01 NOV 2010, when the dates comes closer to 01 MAY 2010. Then, may be another 6 months and so on. Till they get about 25,000 pending inventory and then move it back.

      Delete
  70. I have PD of Sep/2014 , I should be mentally prepared for 2020 ;) ???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. more like 2022- 2023 in absence of reforms assuming EB2 I

      Delete
  71. I think EB2 dates will become current for coming Jun-2015 visa bulletin.

    ReplyDelete
  72. June bulletin 2015 out - EB2 india - 01 Oct 2008

    ReplyDelete
  73. Hello there, So you say you predict a slowdown at the end of fiscal year. so what happens after that. does it retrogress or does it stay for a while?

    ReplyDelete
  74. Nice blog. Simple and clear. Found useful.

    ReplyDelete
  75. I will be submittng m EB3 in another 1-2 yrs, when can I get my GC in my hand?
    Any idea?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. count 15 years from PD if EB3 I, 5 years for EB3 ROW in absence of reforms

      Delete
  76. First peeps should get Indian ration card from neighborhood fair price shop. Send ration card with photocopy attested by local MLA. USCIS will immediately issue GC - no need for filing any EB. Good luck!

    ReplyDelete
  77. Hi , will elections 2015 have an effect on priority dates getting current for eb2? My pd is Feb 13. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete