March 2019 Visa Bulletin was released earlier this month. The EB2 India priority date cutoff for getting Green Card should is 09 APR 09. The EB3 India date is 22 MAY 09. [1]. For foreseeable future, EB3 India dates are going to be better than EB2 India date. EB2 India date moved by 3 days from last Visa Bulletin while EB3 India date moved by one month. According to the prediction provided in Visa Bulletin last month, EB3 India can move a max of 3 months and EB2 India a max of one week.
Estimated 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year (FY 2019) -- between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.
In FY 2018, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 4,096 and EB3 India was 6,050. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [2].
According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, For EB3 India, there is no data for 2009. For EB2 India, there are 4457 I-485s pending for Apr, May, June and July of 2009. [3]. There is no update on I-485 inventory after July 2018. We are keenly watching for an update.
Regarding the filing dates, USCIS has a logic, which we have no visibility to. They can technically open up the Filing dates to later dates. This will give opportunity to file I-485 and more importantly get the EAD and give the much needed -- less hassle job portability. For the first time, USCIS accepted "DATES FOR FILING OF EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA APPLICATIONS" chart in October 2018 Visa Bulletin. They continued the practice till Jan 2019 Visa Bulletin. But from last month onwards, they decided to move back to "Final Action Dates" chart. [4].
Given all of the above information, the final action dates are following the pattern of China, in the sense, EB3 India dates are favorable now than EB2 India dates. This means the days of "upgrading" your petition from EB3 to EB2 are not favorable at this point. Now, it is time to talk to your immigration lawyers are about "downgrading" from EB3 to EB2.
Meanwhile, if you are waiting for I-485, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.
Data Sources:
[1] March 2019 Visa Bulletin --https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-march-2019.html
[2] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2018AnnualReport/FY18AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf
[3] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.uscis.gov/greencard/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory
[4] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo
Not sure the reasons for pending inventory delay. May be its the administration policy to tighten further screws in legal immigration and remove any transparency or the numbers haven't changed much from July 2018 to Jan 2019 or they want to see more filings before releasing. With all the porting from EB3 to EB2 that happened over the last several years, I doubt if there are more than 1000 applicants left in EB3 for the year 2009. Mine is August 25, 2009 EB2 and I think its another 2 year wait (with spouses and children not in the list yet). At least I am glad I have EAD. Few of my friends missed out the 2012 filing and they unfortunately have to get H1B renewed every year.
ReplyDeleteSurely look into EB2 to EB3 downgrading when the EB3 dates gets closer to Aug 2009.
DeleteWhen will be the next update on this?
Deletei realized after looking at page 14 of https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2018AnnualReport/FY18AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf the grand total sum of EB3 issuance is 36,938 which is 3,062 short of 40,000.. would this mean this much amount of visa was wasted?
ReplyDeleteBut, EB2 has got little more the 40,000. I normally look at the overall number -- 139,483. That might suggest some wastage.
DeleteAmbals, any idea when EB2 with PD in mid May of 2009 will get current?
ReplyDeleteHopefully in next 5 months. Last visa bulletin they predicted one week per month movement.
DeleteI hope so, but considering even after predicting 1 week per month it only moved by 3 days this month it is very difficult to predict.
Deletewhat do you think of EB1 Jan 2018 be current?
ReplyDeleteAny predictions for EB2 June 2010?
ReplyDeleteAny predictions on EB2 Jan 2013.appreciate your response
ReplyDeletelol....
DeleteGiven 6 yrs if wait for each year you have 6x4=24 years to wait. 2019+24=2043.
DeleteMy EB2 PD is April 28, 2009. Any guesstimates? Looking at 3 days per month, do I have to wait for 6 more months :( ?
ReplyDeleteHow many EB3 india GCs are given every year?
ReplyDeleteWhere can we find how many applications in eb3 for 2011,2012, 2013, 2014?
Hi guys , can you please estimate dec 2012 PD, appreciate your response
ReplyDeleteThe only way I see the backlog getting cleared is
ReplyDelete1. Kids sponsoring parents after they turn 21.
2. Filing in EB5 with 500K
3. Magically Eb3 ROW drying up...
or
4. A huge recession like 2008-2009 which if it lasts for several years would clear all the backlog.
Else, many of us will die before getting green card.
Feb 10 2010 EB3 India, any prediction?
ReplyDeleteNovember 2019. According to one calculator.
DeleteIn both 2018 (https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2018AnnualReport/FY18AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf) and 2017 annual report (https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2017AnnualReport/FY17AnnualReport%20-TableV.pdf) south korea received more eb2 than india though india is heavily backlogged. In 2017 india got 2879 while south korea got 4909 In 2018 india got 4096 while south korea got 4405. Probably because south korea is natural ally mainly against north korea and china. So its looks like left overs are not for heavily backlogged country
ReplyDeleteSouth Korea Spillover from their EB1 quota
Deletethanks good catch
Deleteyaar this is crazy! why is the wait so long?? UGH.
ReplyDeleteWith generally visa issuance getting tighter and interviews being scheduled for i485, normally you would aspect more EB2 ROW SPILLOVER (at least 1 year since 2017 should have had a big spillover because of interview thing).
ReplyDeleteAlmost no spillover surprises me.
Ambals, Is there any analysis from you about how EB3 & EB2 move if Senate version of HR1044 (S386) also approved, signed by President and becomes Law ? MY PD is in Sep 2010 EB2.
ReplyDeleteMY PD is also Sep 2010 EB2. Any idea on when realistically we will be able to get at least an EAD? If the dates move forward at the rate of 1 week per month, it will take another 5.5 years - Around Dec 2024. Is this realistic or will it take longer?
DeleteNobody can give this prediction
DeleteGanesh - a new update please..any predictions?
ReplyDeleteAmbals - Can you publish a new analysis. Your analysis is very insightful. Thanks
ReplyDeleteHi, Can you publish a new analysis, its very helpful
ReplyDeleteHi Ambals, Can you publish a new analysis, and maybe your thoughts @ the movement in the upcoming year and HR1044 / S386 country cap rule. Your insights are very good and helpful (even if only for some peace of mind :)
ReplyDeletegreat to see how similar the Indian Green Card is with the US green card (I'm in the middle of renewing my green card in the US). Thanks for the analysis
ReplyDeleteSome (very tiny) good news.
ReplyDeleteHi Ambals: Oct 2019 Visa Bulletin indicated that USCIS will accept I-485 applications according to 'FILING Date'. So it seesm Pattern from 2018 is Repeating Oct2019-Jan2020, Filing date will be allowed, the revert to final Action Dates for the Rest of the fiscal year.
What's the use of this blog when the experts don't even care to put any updates for months and months?
ReplyDeleteLooks like the owners of this blog themselves got bored and frustrated because of delay and lack of movement and there is nothing to share. Or they must already got theirs, if so congratulations to them. Irrespective of what anyone say USCIS is doing what they want to and this mess is not going to end anytime soon.
ReplyDeleteAnd today Murthy has reported that Charles oppenheim gave prediction that eb2 India may not move forward much because of eb3 to eb2 porting because of lack of eb3 movement in the lAst 4 visa bulletins. Mine is august 2009 and the wrong judgement from my end costed big time though i have ead since 2012. Hr1044 or s386 will not pass and it's stuck and Democrats will oppose it. Doubling the green card is dead on arrival at Senate and Republican are against it. I am an optimist but on this issue I don't see any positive happening.
We are at one year aniversary of this post :) !!! Any updated analysis?
ReplyDeleteUSCIS stopped updating I-485 pending inventory. I am not able to give any meaningful analysis without that. If there is any source that gives priority dates and number of pending applications, please let me know. I will be more than happy to do some analysis.
DeleteHi, In Eb2 India, Is the Green Card interview for all those who are waiting at this time OR Is it only for people who applied the labor after certain date ?
ReplyDeleteI believe everyone has to as part of I-485 process.
DeleteProbably the blog owner got their green cards and don't care to enlighten others anymore.
ReplyDeleteUSCIS stopped updating I-485 pending inventory. I am not able to give any meaningful analysis without that. If there is any source that gives priority dates and number of pending applications, please let me know. I will be more than happy to do some analysis.
DeleteBut you can put some updates to show atleast this is not a dead blog.
DeleteThese days the best source of info about how the dates will move in near future (3-6 months) is attorney shustermans monthly checkin with Charles Oppenheim (although without any numerical numbers it is lot harder to understand future movement
ReplyDeletehttps://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/
Questions questions questions- asking myself if the wait is worth it ���� just like lot of folks
ReplyDelete