Thursday, February 28, 2013

Spillovers and EB2 India Predictions


Earlier this month, DOS updated the Visa Statistics links, thus giving the official FY 2012 numbers.

According to this, these are the number of Green Cards EB2-India  folks have got:

FY 2012 -- 19,726
FY 2011 -- 23,997
FY 2010 -- 19,961
FY 2009 -- 10,106
FY 2008 -- 14,806

In FY 2012, these are the numbers:


EB4 -- 7,478
EB5 -- 7,641
EB1 -- 39,387
EB2 -- 50,593
EB3 -- 39,549
Total -- 144,648

Generally, the spillover works this way --> EB4 to EB5 to EB1 to EB2. In EB2 , all the EB2 ROW excess numbers going to EB2 India and China. Also, the law is in such a way that numbers has to go to most demand country. So, EB2 India will get all the spill overs till it reaches EB2 China PD date. Then, they will go hand in hand.

Let us do some extrapolation. Lets assume there will be about 300 porting per month. So, it will be 3600 there for full FY 2013. Also, from the above data EB2 - India has got about 39% of total EB2 numbers.

I think the best case scenario will be, if EB2 India gets the same as last year about 20,000. In this case, the PD will go as far as 01-AUG-09 in Sept VB, based on the Jan inventory data.  But, from various lawfirm websites we are hearing that this is not possible -- as EB5 demand, EB1 demand and EB2 ROW has increased tremendously. If we assume, there is same number of immigrant visas are given for EB4 and if EB2 India gets about 25% of total EB2 number (45,188), with spillover total EB2 India will be about 15,000. This will make the PD move to 01-APR-08. I feel this is more optimal and can happen. According to me, the worst case scenario will be, EB2 India getting 15%  of the total EB2 number. This still will bring the number to about 10,000 and moving the dates to 01-JAN-08 by Sept 2013 Visa Bulletin.

Of course, there are lot of assumptions here as in the number of porting, EB4 demand staying the same and EB2 ROW's spillover. We need to wait and watch how it spans out.


To view the Visa Statistics at DOS website -- Please Click Here

To view the Jan I-485 inventory data at USCIS website -- Please Click Here

To view the latest predictions from Capitol Immigration Lawgroup -- Please Click Here

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182 comments:

  1. AnonymousFebruary 28, 2013 at 9:15 AM

    Nice analysis ambals. Have you taken the additional 18000 numbers from FB into account ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousMarch 8, 2013 at 2:05 PM

      Why have you stopped writing about baby foods? Many people read about it too. :)

      Delete
    2. AnonymousMarch 27, 2013 at 4:14 PM

      2018 december

      Delete
  2. AnonymousFebruary 28, 2013 at 9:16 AM

    My PD is May 29 2008. Do you think I can become current this year

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousFebruary 28, 2013 at 9:29 AM

    By next year..you mean next fiscal year starting Oct 2013 ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsFebruary 28, 2013 at 9:37 AM

      If the trend is same like this year, then it will be more like July 2014. It will be more clear once Sept 2013 VB is out.

      Delete
  4. AnonymousFebruary 28, 2013 at 10:00 AM

    What will be the outcome if this Immigration Bill has passed

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsFebruary 28, 2013 at 10:23 AM

      Too many factors involved, depends on the state when it becomes law.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousMarch 1, 2013 at 12:35 PM

      As per the latest developments in the congress lets assume the Immigration Bill has passed along with the STEM Bill Before the September 2013 VB is out. Then there might be changes in the numbers under EB1/EB2 if that is the case when can people expect EAD/GC who has done their Masters/PhD in US Universities?

      Delete
  5. AnonymousFebruary 28, 2013 at 10:14 AM

    Hi ... my EB2 PD is May 2007.. what is your guesstimate to get GC ?

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousFebruary 28, 2013 at 11:28 AM

    Hi, my PD is June 2009. What is the best & worst case scenario to get GC? Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsFebruary 28, 2013 at 11:38 AM

      My guess is -- Best case is Oct 2013 (assuming some bill will become law) -- Worst case will be Sept 2014.

      Delete
  7. AnonymousFebruary 28, 2013 at 11:30 AM

    This might be irrelevant question. I am not very sure how USCIS moves date but I have seen that they move faster than visa (Green card)availability for India EB2 category. Do you think they might move PD similar to what they did in FY2012? This way atleast we get EAD if not green card. I still don't understand why USCIS don't give EAD if quota isn't available. Having EAD is lot easier than H1B in terms of change of Employer or Job location.


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsFebruary 28, 2013 at 11:36 AM

      I don't think they will do it until the EB2 India comes closer to May 2010 date.

      Delete
  8. AnonymousFebruary 28, 2013 at 1:26 PM

    I am at Sep 29 2004 , When do you think I will be current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsFebruary 28, 2013 at 1:26 PM

      July 2013. I really hope it comes earlier than that.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousFebruary 28, 2013 at 1:38 PM

      I hope they start applying spillovers from April :)

      Delete
  9. AnonymousFebruary 28, 2013 at 1:50 PM

    I work for the American consulting firm and my I-140 approved under EB2-I and my PD is Sept 2012.

    If I leave my current consulting company and come back to the same American consulting firm after 4 years when my PD is current. Will I have to start PERM,I-140 again for the same company?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousFebruary 28, 2013 at 3:27 PM

      GC is for future employment, if you go out of country and come back after come years defintely you can get your GC.

      Delete
  10. AnonymousFebruary 28, 2013 at 1:52 PM

    Thanks for the in-depth analysis.

    ReplyDelete
  11. AnonymousFebruary 28, 2013 at 2:03 PM

    Good prediction. Irrespective of porting Jan 2008 PD will be current on Aug/Sep-2013 VB.There will be no movement until July 2013. Aug VB will bring Sep 1-2007 date as current then Sep VB will bring Jan 2008 as current. Who ever has the PD before Jan-2008 will get GC before end of this year 200%.

    Best Case: Apr-2008
    Average : Jan-2008
    Worst :Sep-2007
    will get GC this year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. anonymousMarch 8, 2013 at 5:56 AM

      I hope so! but why do you say it so confidently?

      Delete
  12. AnonymousFebruary 28, 2013 at 2:28 PM

    Hi, I've been following your blog for quite a while and thank you for putting this together. My PD is Nov-5-2007 (EB2). We've missed the boat twice on filing I-485!:-) Don't ask how that happened:-) but is there a high likelyhood of getting current within the next 6 months?

    ReplyDelete
  13. AnonymousFebruary 28, 2013 at 2:41 PM

    Hi, Last year spilover was shared by India and China right?. India got around 39% of total EB2 GCs. But now PD for china is far ahead of India. So India get more spillover right?
    did you take it into consideration in your calculations?

    ReplyDelete
  14. AnonymousFebruary 28, 2013 at 4:02 PM

    Good job. I appreciate your work in calculating the numbers and forecasting the priority dates. Thanks a lot. This helps lot of people to set an reasonable expectation than anonymous guess.

    ReplyDelete
  15. AnonymousFebruary 28, 2013 at 8:34 PM

    good analysis but dont you think you have understimated porting cases @ 300/month? How about considering 500/month and then provide a worst case scenario on that basis?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsFebruary 28, 2013 at 8:36 PM

      300 per month is based on demand numbers released by DOS from Oct 2012 to Feb 2013.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousMarch 1, 2013 at 7:19 AM

      ambals - yes correct but dos must have mentioned 300 applications/month not visas. remember that each application consumes atleast 2-3 visas including dependents so dont you think 500 is a reasonable no. ?

      Delete
    3. AmbalsMarch 1, 2013 at 9:17 PM

      My understanding is that demand is based on visa numbers and not application.

      Delete
  16. AnonymousFebruary 28, 2013 at 9:25 PM

    Very informational. Thank you for putting this together.

    ReplyDelete
  17. AnonymousMarch 1, 2013 at 3:13 AM

    Hi Ambals
    I have been a close follower of your blog since the fast movement of EB2India in the begining of last year. Since then I have noticed your analysis and prediction have become correct in almost all scenarios. I am really hoping your prediction of the best case of 20K spillover coming becomes correct.

    ReplyDelete
  18. AnonymousMarch 1, 2013 at 7:46 AM

    Hello Friends, I just have a curious question and would appreciate your reply.

    What was the reason behind moving PD to 2011 last year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousMarch 1, 2013 at 7:49 AM

      Sorry, my mistake it was May 1, 10 and not 2011. Can anyone explain the reason behind that?

      Delete
    2. AmbalsMarch 1, 2013 at 9:35 PM

      When the PD came closer to Aug 2007, they want as many folks as possible to apply for I-485 -- so the formalities of finger printing, name check and others can be done before the end of the FY. So, they surely have to move the date for enough applications. But, may be they moved too far to may 2010.

      Delete
    3. AnonymousMarch 2, 2013 at 12:14 PM

      The reason was EB1 spillover to EB2 year before. That did not happen this year. i.e., more EB1 visas were consumed than anticipated.

      Delete
  19. AnonymousMarch 1, 2013 at 9:43 AM

    Hello Ambals,
    I used to read your post often. My question is when I can expect my green card with EB3 india pd feb 2003. Even though I know some what it will be Apr 2014 due to spillover can I expect little bit earlier.Thank you so much for taking your time and answering my question.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 1, 2013 at 9:33 PM

      I am pretty sure it will be earlier than that. Oct 2012 demand says 2300 before 1 Jan 2003. Jan inventory says, 753 (Jan 2003) + 749 (Feb 2003). So, the total is 3802 Vs 3163 available visas this year. Depending on number of porting who has PD before your date and how early your PD is on Feb 2013, you might become current as early as Sept 2013.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousMarch 4, 2013 at 12:16 PM

      Spill over numbers never assigned to EB3 due to EB2 backlogs. So Eb3 will move 2 weeks /months..now count your days..

      Delete
  20. AnonymousMarch 1, 2013 at 10:22 AM

    Hi, my PD is Feb 2011. What is the best & worst case scenario for PD to be current? Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 1, 2013 at 9:22 PM

      Best case -- Oct 2013 (assuming some bill will pass). Worst case -- Sept 2017.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousMarch 2, 2013 at 6:32 AM

      @Ambal, What are the chances you you predict for some of the bill to pass as of now? Thanks!!

      Delete
    3. AnonymousMarch 5, 2013 at 11:20 AM

      Hello Ambals,

      Do you have some idea about this? Thanks!!

      Delete
    4. AmbalsMarch 5, 2013 at 9:01 PM

      It is politics. Very hard to tell anything. My personal wish is to see some reform that helps us by the end of the year.

      Delete
  21. AnonymousMarch 1, 2013 at 12:27 PM

    Before the 18000 FB visa spillover came into light, everybody's best case prediction was that the eb2 priority date would be early 2008 at the end of FY13.

    Now with the additional FB visa spillover and eb2-I being the major beneficiary, why do you still think early 2008 could still be a reality? It should at least be late 2008 at the end of FY13. Is that not correct?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 1, 2013 at 9:20 PM

      The spillover is kind of compensated by extra demand on porting, EB1 and EB5.

      Delete
    2. SumanMarch 4, 2013 at 8:26 AM

      I had the same question too ! Charles O. had predicted last year Dec that by end of FY 2013 the priority date will be current for early 2008. With the spillovers, won't that be at least end of 2008 by Dec2013?

      Delete
    3. AmbalsMarch 4, 2013 at 9:15 AM

      Last Dec, he said he is doing it based on the fact available at that time and it will change based on demand.

      Delete
  22. AnonymousMarch 1, 2013 at 12:56 PM

    Hi Ambals,

    I like the way you have done the analysis on the spillover. Any guess on Jan 15th 2007 PD as to when it will become current?

    ReplyDelete
  23. AnonymousMarch 1, 2013 at 3:04 PM

    Hello, My priority date is april 2009. When could i be current?

    ReplyDelete
  24. AnonymousMarch 1, 2013 at 4:42 PM

    Hi Ambals - can you please check below link and let us know if there would be any movement in EB2(I) this FY. Thanks.

    http://www.murthy.com/2013/03/01/aila-insights-into-visa-bulletin-cutoff-dates/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousMarch 1, 2013 at 6:48 PM

      I would also like to read some comments on the above link.

      Delete
    2. AmbalsMarch 1, 2013 at 9:18 PM

      Actually all that is taken into account in the prediction. If see last link in this blog post, Capitol Immigration law group website has exactly the same thing. Murthy.com is late in publishing the same.

      Delete
    3. AnonymousMarch 1, 2013 at 9:25 PM

      You pump in a lot of hope...thanks a bunch for taking time in doing this analysis!!!

      Delete
  25. AnonymousMarch 2, 2013 at 7:34 AM

    so May 22 2008 PD has very little chance of becoming current this year unless there is a reform ?

    ReplyDelete
  26. AnonymousMarch 3, 2013 at 7:05 AM

    Hi Ambals,

    Thanks for this detailed analysis. My PD is March 2010. Can you please provide best and worst case scenarios for when it will be current?

    Rhanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 3, 2013 at 11:51 AM

      Best case -- Oct 2013 (assuming some bill will pass). Worst case -- Sept 2016.

      Delete
  27. AnonymousMarch 3, 2013 at 10:49 AM

    My PD is Feb 19 2008. When will it be current?

    ReplyDelete
  28. AnonymousMarch 3, 2013 at 7:17 PM

    My PD is Mar 19 2008. When will it be current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 3, 2013 at 7:31 PM

      Hopefully Sept 2013.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousMarch 5, 2013 at 11:04 PM

      Thank you for giving some positive news :)

      Delete
  29. AnonymousMarch 3, 2013 at 10:40 PM

    I'm in EB3 India Category with PD Dec 2004, When Can I expect mine to be current

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 5, 2013 at 9:06 PM

      AS per Feb 2013 employment data, there are 23,650 applicants whose date is before 01-JAN-2005. Even if you keep 3300 GCs per year, we are talking about 7 years from now (2020).

      Delete
    2. AnonymousMarch 6, 2013 at 1:45 PM

      hi ambals , based on this what is your worst case prediction for priority dates for EB2-I by sept end this year ?

      Delete
  30. SumanMarch 4, 2013 at 8:24 AM

    Hi Ambals,

    Thanks for the in-depth analysis. I follow your blog regularly. My EB2 priority date is Sep 2008. Looks like I am going to miss the boat this year. Hopefully by Q1 next year it will be current. I just wanted to know how long we have to stay with the current employer after receiving EAD before we can quit ? Is it 6 months ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 4, 2013 at 8:42 AM

      It is better to contact an immigration lawyer and discuss your specific situation.
      General rule of thumb is -- if your I-140 is approved, if you have your EAD and if your I-485 has been pending for 6-months, you can switch jobs. Typically you file an AC 21.

      Delete
  31. krishnakanthMarch 4, 2013 at 9:05 AM

    Hi,

    I have a July 2011 PD in EB2-I. Could you please let me know when it might become current. I know its a long wait, but wanted to get a rough estimate based on your calculations.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 4, 2013 at 9:40 AM

      As per the current trend, it will be 6 years from your priority date -- say around July 2017.

      Delete
    2. krishnakanthMarch 4, 2013 at 10:09 AM

      Thanks a lot for your input. If the CIR reform for STEM degree holders per I2 act comes to life OR if alteast the CIR on the whole sees the light of the day, would the wait be reduced? I know its a very hypothetical question, but, wanted to know.

      Delete
    3. AmbalsMarch 4, 2013 at 10:25 AM

      Yes. Any small form of change will help reduce the wait time.

      Delete
  32. AnonymousMarch 4, 2013 at 10:28 AM

    Hi,

    Right Now I am on H1. I have EAD that I already got from my wife(EB3 category) as a primary.We applied in 2007

    I have approved EB2 category labour and I-140(P-date 08/07/2010).Once the date is current for me, we can interfile my EB2 with my pending I-485 and ask the CIS to convert me as principal and my wife as derivative.
    I would like to look for options to change the job.

    My question is If I change the job now, I don't have to apply for Labor again, is that correct?

    Please suggest. Thank you for your time and help.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 4, 2013 at 5:31 PM

      It is better to contact an immigration lawyer and discuss your specific situation. I don't think your EB2 application can use your wife's EB3 date.

      Delete
  33. AnonymousMarch 4, 2013 at 12:12 PM

    If you change the job using your H1 (H1 Transfer) then your new company needs to file Labor(PERM) again and you can port your old PD(2010).Comparing to Eb3 2007 Eb2 2010 pd can become current soon.

    The better option is, if your wife files new Labor in EB2 and port the old PD(2007 EB3) to EB2 then it will become current this year.Since your wife is primary better to get that 2007 PD to EB2.

    ReplyDelete
  34. AnonymousMarch 4, 2013 at 12:20 PM

    Hi,

    Prediction are great but based on the past experience they never come close to reality. With all the talks about getting PD more retrogressed, I would not put 2 cents on any prediction made above. They all look too optimistic to me. Sorry to say that...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 4, 2013 at 5:32 PM

      Everyone is entitled to their opinion... thats what predictions are about.....isn't it..... :)

      Delete
  35. AnonymousMarch 4, 2013 at 12:24 PM

    My priority date is 1 November 2006. Any chance of me getting current in April 2013

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 4, 2013 at 5:28 PM

      I sincerely hope so. But in all likelihood it is going to be July 2013.

      Delete
  36. AnonymousMarch 4, 2013 at 12:54 PM

    Hi Ambals,

    I feel that the prediction is missing one critical factor. The 300 per month porting is the key. I feel that it is 300 per month because the date is before 2007 currently. Most of the people with PD before 2007 have got their EADs (that is true for both EB2 and EB3). Thus there is not much incentive for people with PD before 2007 to port their PD. However, there is a much much bigger incentive for people who do not have their EADs and thus I think the porting number will shoot up once the PD becomes 2007. Thus the 300 might turn into something like 1000 per month. Do you agree that this factor needs to be considered as well.

    ReplyDelete
  37. AnonymousMarch 4, 2013 at 2:12 PM

    My priority date is EB-India: October 2009. When do you think, I would get my green card?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 4, 2013 at 5:28 PM

      If it is EB2 India, around Sept 2014.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousMay 20, 2014 at 6:13 PM

      I think you mean Sept 2015.

      Delete
  38. RajMarch 5, 2013 at 1:09 AM

    Hi Ambals,

    Thank You very much for your analysis and predictions.
    My priority date is Sept 2007 (EB2). Do you know when I would receive my Green Card?

    Thank you much in advance.

    ReplyDelete
  39. MuraliMarch 5, 2013 at 11:22 AM

    Hi Ambals,

    Thank You very much for your analysis and predictions.
    My priority date is Oct 2007 (EB2). Do you know when I would receive my Green Card?

    ReplyDelete
  40. AnonymousMarch 5, 2013 at 3:46 PM

    Hi,
    My priority date is Apr2008, EB2-India. Based on your predictions, would my date be current before OCT2013 or after that. Thankyou and appreciate your efforts in making the analysis.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 5, 2013 at 8:59 PM

      Mostly it will be around July 2014. As per today's data, you are kind of in the border line. I hope you get it in Sept 2013 itself.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousMarch 6, 2013 at 1:43 PM

      Ambals - Can you please clarify which data was released on March 5 that changed your prediction that Apr 2008 PD for EB2-I will not be current this year ?

      Delete
  41. AnonymousMarch 5, 2013 at 9:29 PM

    Hi,
    My priority date is Apr 15, 2008 (eb2 I). When it would become current.
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  42. AnonymousMarch 5, 2013 at 11:00 PM

    Hi Ambals, my EB3 pd is jan 29th 2010, i am porting to EB2, so when EB2 will be again 2010 jan??? So that i can file 485.
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousMarch 7, 2013 at 11:43 AM

      when you port u can ratain your old pd..but filling 485 u need to wait for ur date to become current..current situation u need to wait 2 to 3 years..

      Delete
    2. AnonymousMarch 7, 2013 at 11:46 AM

      you are 100% correct, once they move the date to 2007 then lots of people who already port to eb2 will file 485. So they count goes up again..at this rate of porting most of the eb3 numbers will come into eb2 queue.. so dates will not go beyond 2007 until 2014 Oct.

      Delete
    3. AmbalsMarch 7, 2013 at 2:36 PM

      Sometime in 2015 is when I expect it to be current.

      Delete
  43. AnonymousMarch 6, 2013 at 9:05 AM

    Ambals,

    You have done very good job on keeping everyone updated and it seems that many visitors are looking for some predictions for that date. If you have some knowledge on what priority date will be current at what time then I guess that would answer questions lot of us are having. May be you can update that post every month or every few months when there is a movement.

    Thank you very much!

    ReplyDelete
  44. AnonymousMarch 6, 2013 at 12:07 PM

    Any news on immigration reform?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousMarch 7, 2013 at 11:41 AM

      still in early stage, it will take at least 2 to 3 years to become law. meantime republic party will come to the power..so no gurantee

      Delete
    2. AnonymousMarch 8, 2013 at 3:43 PM

      No not 2-3 years. It either comes really soon or will completely die. The bill is scheduled to go through congress by mid of april this year, so if passes it will be great news for legal people

      Delete
  45. KrishnaMarch 6, 2013 at 3:47 PM

    Hi Ambals,
    My PD is 10/2009. How sooner or later will I get my GC?
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  46. AnonymousMarch 6, 2013 at 3:54 PM

    My priority date is june 2010. when do you predict this date to become current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousMarch 7, 2013 at 10:25 AM

      End of next year. May sooner get ead if dates are progressed but no guarantees

      Delete
    2. AmbalsMarch 7, 2013 at 2:38 PM

      Sometime in 2015 is when I expect it to be current.

      Delete
  47. AnonymousMarch 7, 2013 at 9:53 AM

    USCIS have got their funding by moving the dates recently and flood of applications coming in. Now co wants to be conservative in moving the dates until he feels the acct needs to be funded again, but he doesn't want to loose the visa numbers for the year, given that not only does he needs to consider the current eb2 pending buy also the porting that will happen given the eb2 dates move, so his prediction of 2008 by July will probably needs to be cut short to 2007 to keep the porting numbers and than gauge of again in September.
    Well ... ..

    ReplyDelete
  48. AnonymousMarch 7, 2013 at 10:26 AM

    My priority date is Sept 2010 (EB2). Can you please let me know the estimate time to become it as current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousMarch 7, 2013 at 11:40 AM

      wait until 2015-2016

      Delete
    2. AnonymousMarch 7, 2013 at 11:48 AM

      End of next year in best case,

      Delete
    3. AmbalsMarch 7, 2013 at 2:38 PM

      Around Sept 2015 is when I expect it to be current.

      Delete
  49. AnonymousMarch 7, 2013 at 2:28 PM

    Hi,
    First of all, appreciate your effort in keeping us posted.
    This is more of a process question as i am not aware of how it works. Our PD is Feb 2010. We got a RFE for a vaccination. We have completed the formalities. However what does it mean? Does USCIS opens the applications randomly? Or do they open the applications and make sure everything is correct and issue the cards once the PD is current. I was under the opinion that the applications are not opened until the date becomes current. Please let me know what is the procedure they follow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 7, 2013 at 2:40 PM

      Typically, they clear all the documents and keep it available for visa numbers to be available -- PD to be current to give GC. Looks like that is what is happening in your case. But, that is not the case always.

      Delete
  50. AnonymousMarch 7, 2013 at 9:00 PM

    Hi Ambals I really appreciate the great postings you do. Currently I am EB2 with PD of July 2012. When can I expect it to be current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 8, 2013 at 8:56 PM

      Too early to say now. As of current trend, it will be about 6 years from your PD.

      Delete
  51. AnonymousMarch 8, 2013 at 12:30 AM

    Hi Ambals,
    Thanks for the information and analysis provided.
    Getting married in Dec 2013 and country of chargeability is other than India/ China since I am born in Kuwait. My fiancee's priorty date is Sept 2010. ( EB2 India )How soon can I file for I 485?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousMarch 8, 2013 at 9:37 AM

      Sep 2010 PD will take 2-3 years to become current..So enjoy your marriage and honeymoon then comeback after 2 years :)

      Delete
    2. AmbalsMarch 8, 2013 at 8:57 PM

      Other than India or China, EB2s can get GC with in a year.

      Delete
  52. AnonymousMarch 8, 2013 at 2:49 PM

    my priority date is march 2009 eb2I , please let me know when it is expected to be current. thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  53. AnonymousMarch 8, 2013 at 6:18 PM

    The demand data released today shows strangely that nos. reduced after 2007 and increased before 2007.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 8, 2013 at 8:54 PM

      I think they are correcting some data errors.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousMarch 8, 2013 at 10:49 PM

      Is it possible that the no. in earlier DD was incorrect that was fixed in this current one ?

      Delete
  54. GMarch 8, 2013 at 10:18 PM

    Hi Ambals,

    Thanks for your analysis. My PD is march 28 2008 EB2. DO you think it will be current by Sept 2013?

    Thanks,

    ReplyDelete
  55. AnonymousMarch 9, 2013 at 8:25 PM

    Hi my PD is April 24 2008 in EB2 category when can I expect GC worst & best case scenario

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 9, 2013 at 8:32 PM

      Best Case - Sept 2013. Worst Case - Sept 2014.

      Delete
  56. AnonymousMarch 10, 2013 at 5:01 PM

    Hi Ambals

    My PD is March 2012 (EB2). When can i expect to get an EAD ?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 12, 2013 at 10:09 AM

      Too early to tell. Let us hope one of the immigration bill passes.

      Delete
  57. AnonymousMarch 10, 2013 at 5:10 PM

    Hi Ambals

    My wife had got her H1 approval in 2009 but she could not work at that moment and switched back to H4. She is now planning to get a job. Do we need apply for a new H1 or can the existing one be transferred ?

    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
  58. AnonymousMarch 11, 2013 at 10:09 AM

    Hi Ambals,

    Great analysis. Thanks. My PD is August 2011. I am guessing unless a Bill passes it will be current in 2020. Do you have a better prediction ?

    ReplyDelete
  59. SatyaMarch 12, 2013 at 9:56 AM

    What is the reason FY 2009 got less number of GC's for EB2 India? 10k is very low compared to all other years

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 12, 2013 at 10:07 AM

      I think it is primarily because of economy. Probably, on the top of it the stricter policies by Labor Dept/USCIS/DOS during that time.

      Delete
    2. SatyaMarch 12, 2013 at 1:45 PM

      So you think the spillovers are actually more, but all didn't get used?

      Delete
    3. AmbalsMarch 12, 2013 at 3:32 PM

      I misunderstood your question. That year the data shows the EB1 had 40K+ cases and the EB2 ROW demand was pretty high.

      Delete
  60. AnonymousMarch 12, 2013 at 11:03 PM

    Hi Ambals,

    Great analysis. Thanks. My PD is Sep 2011. Can you guess any date when i can get EAD?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 13, 2013 at 8:54 PM

      Too early to tell. Let us hope one of the immigration bill passes.

      Delete
  61. AnonymousMarch 13, 2013 at 6:37 PM

    Please let me know your prediction for EB2-I Feb 2011.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 13, 2013 at 8:54 PM

      Too early to tell. Let us hope one of the immigration bill passes.

      Delete
  62. AnonymousMarch 15, 2013 at 3:10 PM

    Mr. ambals - excellent analysis but current demand includes porting nos. only till sept 2004. If you account for nos. after sept 2004, there are X no. waiting to interfile/file i-485 and none knows that no. I think you should account for it and then revist the prediction.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 15, 2013 at 3:16 PM

      No. If you see the Demand Data, the number does increase more in 2006/2007/2008 areas, which means porting is already included in them.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousMarch 15, 2013 at 7:36 PM

      ambals - ok if we agree that those nos. are also included, think of someone like PD before 2007 who missed the July 2007 fiasco and ported last month. He has never filed I-485 so how will USCIS ever account for him. He and many like those could be filing 485 for the first time who only have approved 140. Where are they accounted ?

      Delete
    3. AmbalsMarch 15, 2013 at 8:02 PM

      August 2007 became current twice before. So, the number of folks who have not filed 485 is very very less. That number might go up a little for people who have PD from Sept 2007.

      Delete
  63. AnonymousMarch 19, 2013 at 8:43 AM

    Thanks for your in-depth analysis. My PD is on May 10, 2010. Based on your analysis, when can I expect it to become current? Appreciate your feedback. Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousMarch 19, 2013 at 5:38 PM

      I forgot to mention that it was filed under the EB2 category.

      Delete
  64. AnonymousMarch 20, 2013 at 9:41 PM

    Hi, my pd is October 2007 eb2 i. When can I expect my date to be current? Once it is current, how long it takes to have the GC?

    ReplyDelete
  65. AnonymousMarch 22, 2013 at 8:59 AM

    I love your analysis.

    ReplyDelete
  66. AnonymousMarch 23, 2013 at 8:34 PM

    what is the impact of doubling Visa number now to EB2 category people....what are the chances for Immigration reform now, do you thing in these scenario immigration bill will pass

    ReplyDelete
  67. AnonymousMarch 27, 2013 at 2:54 PM

    Hi Ambals,

    Thanks for this detailed analysis. My PD is Jan 2012. Can you please provide best and worst case scenarios for when it will be current?

    Rhanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmbalsMarch 27, 2013 at 3:07 PM

      Hope for immigration reform bill to pass.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousMarch 28, 2013 at 12:16 PM

      What if bill pass or what if bill not pass

      Delete
  68. AnonymousMarch 27, 2013 at 3:27 PM

    Hi, my pd is JAN 2012 eb2 i. When can I expect my date to be current? Once it is current, how long it takes to have the GC?

    ReplyDelete
  69. AnonymousApril 3, 2013 at 5:23 PM

    Hi,

    My EB3 PD is Feb 2007.
    My application for Labor in EB2 was filed in Feb 2013 still have not got the approval. When do you think i should get my GC with the above scenario of porting the PD date etc.

    Appreciate your efforts.

    ReplyDelete
  70. AnonymousApril 10, 2013 at 6:58 PM

    My pd is 2010 July when can expect it will be current in eb2 thanks VKM

    ReplyDelete
  71. DineshApril 25, 2013 at 3:16 PM

    My PD is jan 2011. When can I expect my date to be current?

    ReplyDelete
  72. AnonymousApril 30, 2013 at 4:56 PM

    Hi Ambals
    My EB2 PD is Oct 2008. When can I expect my date to be current

    ReplyDelete
  73. Sudip ChakrovortyMay 22, 2013 at 10:54 AM

    Hi Ambals,

    My EB2 PD is Aug 2011. When it will be expected to be current?

    ReplyDelete
  74. garyJuly 6, 2013 at 1:10 AM

    Hi Ambals
    My EB2 PD is November 2008. When can I expect my date to be current

    ReplyDelete
  75. Gopal PusuluriJuly 15, 2013 at 6:14 PM

    Fantastic Job Ambals, The kind of time spent and energy on these calculations is truly helpful for the help seekers, and it's my time to seek help from you ( hope you won't mind), My PD is Apr 2011 (EB2) , do you think i can expect anytime soon in this century :) ?

    ReplyDelete
  76. Sudip ChakrovortyJuly 16, 2013 at 12:08 PM

    Hi Ambals,

    I am just trying to pick your barin on this, My EB2 PD is Aug 2011. When it will be expected to be current? This year's GC quota for Oct 13 looks not so promising. Do you see anything positive next fiscal year october 2014.

    Please let me know your guesstimates.

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  77. AnonymousSeptember 23, 2013 at 6:26 AM

    Hi Ambals,

    Your prediction seems to be very accurate.
    My EB2 PD is March 2009, what would be best possible month/year I can expect the dates to be current.

    Thanks..!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousMay 20, 2014 at 6:06 PM

      Sept 2014 to Sept 2015 you are in good shape.

      Delete
  78. AnonymousDecember 7, 2013 at 1:30 PM

    Hey Ambals..what is your prediction for EB2-I April 2011?

    ReplyDelete
  79. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2014 at 2:32 PM

    Hi Ambals: My EB-2 PD is 2008 March, when do you think it will be current

    ReplyDelete
  80. AnonymousMarch 6, 2014 at 1:59 AM

    Ambals,

    My PD is July 2011 - when can I expect the dates to become current?

    ReplyDelete
  81. AnonymousApril 18, 2014 at 10:15 AM

    My PD is Sep 2010 EB2. when can I expect the dates to become current? Worse case and Best Case?

    ReplyDelete
  82. AnonymousApril 27, 2014 at 10:14 PM

    My PD is July 2011 - my assumption is that its definitely not going to happen until April 2015 - Whats the likelihood that it will become current by september 2015?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousMay 20, 2014 at 6:11 PM

      2009 June is most likely. 2011 may be in 2016 Sept.

      Delete
  83. satheeshJune 7, 2014 at 1:39 AM

    Hi Ambals.. thanks for your posts. my priority date is July 2010. Will the PD become current in 2014 ? Desperately looking to change the job.

    ReplyDelete
  84. AnonymousJuly 11, 2014 at 3:47 PM

    Hi Ambal,
    That was great analysis.
    Can you give me an estimate of when Oct-2011 PD would be current.

    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
  85. AnonymousMarch 26, 2015 at 8:03 AM

    Hi.. my PD Nov 2011. when do you think it will become current?

    ReplyDelete

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