April 2013 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. Date for EB2 India is 01 SEP 04 and EB2 China is 01 APR 08. The cut-off for EB2-ROW, EB2-Mexico and EB2-Philippines is Current.
As expected the EB2 India has not moved. The good news here is EB2 China dates are moving, which means till EB2 India reaches that date, it can consume all the spill over numbers. Another good news is, the EB2 India did not retrogress, even though there was a prediction by DOS in last month Visa Bulletin that it might.
The demand data for this month has been released earlier. It is interesting to note that the cumulative demand prior to Jan 1, 2005 has raised to 375 from 300 and the cumulative demand prior to 1 Jan 2009 has fallen to 23,400 from 23,975. May be data errors/May be porting from EB2 to EB1. We have to wait and watch. But, one thing is clear that there is lot of porting at least with folks having earlier Priority Dates.
What will happen next ? Like mentioned in the earlier posts, USCIS/DOS has gone back to their earlier strategy -- where in they wait till last quarter of the FY to determine the number of visas to give for EB2 India and China, due to spill over. Given this, I expect lot of movement in July. Going by today's data, it might go to 1 Jan 2008. But it will depend on the spill over and the number of porting.
Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 08 DEC 02 and EB3 China is 22 APR 07. As expected, EB3 India is moving at one week or two weeks per month pace. For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change. The reason being there is no spill over to EB3 India category. Hence only about 2800 green cards are given for this category every year.
One thing that is different this year -- there is revived talk about Immigration everywhere -- in the media, in Washington, in House and in Senate. Many focus is currently on the 8 Senators trying to come up with CIR bill which is expected during second week of April.
To view the Demand Data -- Please Click Here
To be honest, immigration news does not excite me any more.. so many bills are introduced in last 1 year and they all eventually disappear in dark oblivion…so now every time i see new bill being introduced all i hear is “blah blah blah..dont think too much , we wont really care abt it”…president talks so much abt STEM in his speeches but he doesn’t really care… last year when a bill on STEM was introduced he said he will veto it..
ReplyDeleteCombining with CIR and given the political scenario... I am hopeful this time....
DeleteActually whatever has happened before CIR, like HR 3012 was never going to be successful since even one senator has the right to vote against it. CIR is different though and you have most heavyweights from both sides supporting it. This time its very positive and if it doesn't happen now can never happen. Wait till mid april until it goes through house
DeleteIn last 4 years India has got approximately 75000 greencard. Also the dates were current for EB2 catagory, atleast until 2005, as per USCIS data. And even after all these things PD is in 2004. Unbelivable!!! and still almost 45000 people having pd before 2010 may are waiting for their GC!!!!
DeleteAmbal - does this mean 75000 (may be 20000 used for porting) GC were filed in 2005 - 2006???
Can you please throw some light on it?? thanks for your blogs Ambal where pepole can express (frustration also) and share their point of view.
I am seriously tired of listening about the immigration reform. They did focused on the immigration system last year and then everything was fused off. I am Physical Therapist with Doctor in Physical Therapy degree. Not only that I have NASM CES and SFS certification. I am only 27 and I have been working as PT from the last 3 years. However, I am from India and the eb2 system has back logged. People like us who are highly educated are still waiting. Whats the use of higher education when US only wants to focus on illegal immigrants.. This is not only respecting the people who brake laws but is a disgrace for people who come here legally.
ReplyDeleteLegal Immegrants are paying taxes to the governament and waiting in queue for long time. Hope Immegration reform will answer for all our questions.
DeleteGreat! I have been here 14 years. I have a Masters in Engineering. Make well over 6 figures. Pay ridiculous amounts of money in taxes. So cut the whining. Everyone is on the queue.
DeleteThe maths is just not adding in any sense between demand data and visa bulletin !! Like Clinton and Obama said before the election about doing the maths.My question is to all of us where do we ask this question of doing the math right,seems like charles oppeinhiem has a personal vendetta against moving EB2 india because he had made some odd prediction earlier and he has to stick to that even if its against the maths and rules. who is there to question him.
ReplyDeleteI think it is going on track for EB2 India. The rule is that only around 300 visas can be given every month. Given that the demand data moved from 300 to 375, after giving out the necessary 300.
DeleteMy date is EB2-I July 2006, When can I expect my date to be current?
ReplyDeletemostly July 2013.
DeleteMy date is EB2-India Dec 2009. When can I expect my date to be current?
ReplyDeleteAround August 2014
DeleteSorry. That should have been August 2015. Of course, it will greatly depend on how far the dates go this Sept 2013 and the number of porting.
DeleteIs there any possibility that SEP 29 2004 EB2 I will be current before July 2013? Are they planning to make total EB2 and EB3 ROW current in July 2013?
ReplyDeleteI think it will be July 2013 not before that.
DeleteMy date is 18th Feb 2003 Eb3 India, when I can expect my date to be current?
ReplyDeleteHopefully Sept 2013.
DeleteSo there are people who have already received GC's due to their spouse or have already given up on this system and have gone back to India, is that data included in demand data, if yes how much benefit could that be in determining the current date
ReplyDeleteHi, my date is July 2008. What is your prediction for when it will be current. Appreciate your response. Btw, I lIke your blog, especially the chicken pasta for kids. I might try that soon. Thanks !
ReplyDeleteBest case -- Sept 2013. Worst case -- Sept 2014. Most likely July 2014.
DeleteMy priority date is 22-Dec-2006, EB2I. Any chance that I will be currently in July this year. I hope something comes up, it has been a disappointing journey so far for me... as I could not make it up in 2010 or 2011 run of the dates.
ReplyDeleteYes. July 2013.
Deletecan you post a link about CIR or any updates happening currently? I dont see anything when i googled
ReplyDeleteTry this... http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/03/09/senators-hush-immigration-bill/1975395/
DeleteHi, I read your blog and is very informative. Can you pl let me know when my date will be current, my priority date is Feb 07 2003
ReplyDeleteThanks.
I am assuming it is EB3 India. Then, hopefully Sept 2013.
Deleteyes it is EB3 India, sorry missed out. Also after how much time I will get greencard.
DeleteThanks.
hi, my priority date is Jan 8, 2008. When can i expect it to be current?
ReplyDeleteHi my priority date is Jan 2009, When can i expect it to be current?
ReplyDeleteWith the current trend, July 2014.
DeleteHopefully Sept 2013.
ReplyDeleteAmbals, great analysis and very quick as well. You give hope to people who have long lost their patience with the broken immigration process with country specific quotas. Is Indian H1B professionals equivalent to what the 19th century Chinese migrants who build the railroads in the US faced.
ReplyDeleteRofl yes, yes and does it take that long to understand something so simple ...YES
DeleteBut u cant do anything so get back to work !
Hi Ambal,
ReplyDeleteSo many people have asked this question already and I am the next one in the line :).
I am on EB2 and my PD is Jan 2010. When can I expect this to be current. Thanks so much for your time.
As per current trend, 6 years from your PD.
DeleteWould like to clarify something.
DeleteYou have replied to the following post yesterday as...
"
My date is EB2-India Dec 2009. When can I expect my date to be current?
AmbalsMarch 11, 2013 at 10:17 PM
Around August 2014.
"
So how come a EB2 Jan 2010 PD takes 6 years?
Sorry -- That should have been August 2015.
DeleteDid you mean to say Aug 2014?
DeleteAs per Jan inventory data, there are 16,020 folks in 2008 and 14,199 in 2009 = 30,219 before Jan 2010 PD. If we assume, the date will come till 01-APR-08 in Sept 2013, then that leaves about 27K folks before Jan 2010, considering the porting, it is not possible for Dec 2009 or Jan 2010 to become current in Sept 2014. So, it should be in last quarter on FY 2015.
DeleteThanks so much Ambals
DeleteHi, my priority Date is Oct 22 2009, when my PD will be current?
ReplyDeleteThanks for all your insight..
As per current trend, 6 years from your PD.
DeleteMy PD is April 2009 EB2. Is there any chance for me to go green by October this year ?
ReplyDeleteI don't think so.
DeleteHi my PD is June 18th 2003 EB3 India, when can i expect mine to be current? thank you
ReplyDeleteHopefully Sept 2014.
DeleteMy PD is July 2006 ( under EB2 ) - when can i expect it to be current
ReplyDeleteJuly 2013
DeleteHello, my PD is May 2010 EB2. When can i expect to get an EAD under worst and best case scenario.
ReplyDeleteToo early to say. Let us wait for the Sept 2013 Visa Bulletin.
DeleteAmbals- I am on the same boat and waiting for priority date. What could happens in Sept 2013?
DeleteThanks Ambal. I really appreciate if you can give some details on what best could happen by Sept 2013 Visa Bulletin. Can i except to get EAD by end of this year, so that i change my employer. Thanks for taking time.
Deletestop acting like kids, people. read the responses above and figure out when you will become current and stop browsing at work.
ReplyDeleteFirst of all ., "Ambals" thank you very much ., You guys are doing great job. I am following your blogs from last 2+ years ., They are very infomatiive and helpful.
ReplyDelete@All - Plz try to do little bit work on your own. Do ur own research and ask some sensible questions. Stop acting like kids.
Hi Ambals. Thanks for the analysis. Just one question regarding fingerprints. It seems to me that most employment based applicants go for their fingerprints before their priority date goes current. My PD date is Nov 2006 (EB3-ROW). I'm expecting my PD to become current in August 2013. However, I have yet to be called for fingerprints. Should I be worried?
ReplyDeleteIf you have filed your I-485 6 months or before then, Yes. You should contact the USCIS customer service.
Deletehi , re-posting this..
ReplyDeleteSo there are people who have already received GC's due to their spouse or have already given up on this system and have gone back to India, is that data included in demand data, if yes how much benefit could that be in determining the current date
I am not aware of any such data.
Deletehi - this is a great thread, and very impressive and detailed analysis being provided. thank you so much!
ReplyDeleteI would be thankful if you can please provide any estimates on getting green with priority date of 1-dec-2008. thanks in advance.
the question was for EB2-I case, with a priority date of 1-dec-2008. thanks!
DeleteMostly around August 2014.
DeleteDear Ambals,
ReplyDeleteExcellent analysis and thank you for your patience with all of the non-experts like me who can't interpret the visa number data.
My priority date is September 2007 (EB2 India), could you let me know when my date would be come current?
Thank You in advance for your assistance.
Hoping for July 2013.
DeleteHi
ReplyDeleteMy pd is Feb 2013, when will be the cuurremt aproximatley?
Thanks
You should pray for the immigration bill to pass.
DeleteWell said!
DeleteI really pray for the immigration bill to pass so that at least we can get the work satisfaction and not our employer.
DeleteAmbals,
ReplyDeleteMy PD is August 2012, EB3 (ROW). I know it's a long way to go but when will it be current? No pointing checking for the VB every month, correct?
Thanks.
Anyone?
DeleteYes. Even as per DOS prediction, it is going to move only four to six weeks at a time. You have a long way to go from 01JUL07. Let us all hope for some good immigration reform to happen.
DeleteI hope so too. Thanks!
DeleteAmbals - Very much impressed and nice overview of prediction. Thank you for putting together this information. My GC PriorityDate is July 2010. Would you able to tell us, approximately, when can we get my GC giving current situation.
ReplyDeleteAs per current trend, about 6 years from your priority date.
DeleteHello-
ReplyDeleteIf the China EB2 priority date moves by one month to May 01 2008 in the next VB, will it be more likely that any one with EB2-I date < May 01 2008 would stand to get their GC in Sep 2013?
I am assuming that EB2-I folks till that point can be accommodated in the spillovers from FB and other unused visas.
Not necessary. What it means is, till India EB2 reaches the EB2 China date, all the spillover visas will go to EB2 India.
DeleteRead somewhere...."The DOS also provided its predictions for future movement and reaffirmed that India EB2 would see no forward movement during the balance of this fiscal year and, may even retrogress further."
ReplyDeleteThat was in March VB. They were talking about only from april to june.
DeleteAmbals, Great and much needed analysis. MY PD is Mar 30 2008 EB2-I. What is the worst and optimum case? What are the chances of getting current by Sep 2013.
ReplyDeleteThanks,
I think the date will go till 01-APR-08 in Sept 2013, then you will become current. The worst case will be Sept 2014.
DeleteHi Ambals,
ReplyDeleteAppreciate your analysis and providing guidance on GC process. I have one question with regards to H1B, I have my wife's H1B Approved in May 2006 for 2007 quata. But after that for some reason, we did not use it or convert into H1B and she remains on H4 till now. Now we wanted to reactivate the H1B once after she is getting job. Here my question is, Do we get any issues while she converting into H1B?
Thanks,
Murali.
It is best to consult an immigration lawyer.
DeleteHi my pd is 16th dec 2002 eb3 when I can expect my green card.......
ReplyDeleteHopefully May 2013.
DeleteMy priority date is Dec 26, 2007. When can I expect it to be current?
ReplyDeleteI am hoping July 2013.
DeleteThank you! Hopefully that will be the case ;)
Deletehi, is there any hope for folks with priority date of Nov-2008 to be able to apply for an EAD atleast before Oct-2013? do they not need to time to adjudicate the cases? thanks for response!
ReplyDeleteI don't think so. They already made current till may 2010 last time. So, they have enough applications to go by. Now, Nov-2008 will be current around July/Aug 2014, I think.
DeleteThank you, Ambals. With so much talk on immigration reform, can you share your thoughts on implementation? First in line illegal immigrants, then H1B backlogs, and finally US STEM degree holders? I am yet to get in line. Stuck in pwd phase. Have US Masters degree and waiting patiently.
ReplyDeleteActually if you read the bill its exactly the opposite. It clearly says to give 1st preference to those who followed the law then those who broke it.
DeleteFirst, we need to wait for the CIR bill to come out. I think that is the one that has any chances as of current political scene. After that we can start talking about what is in there. Even with that, from the time it is introduced and the time it becomes law, it can be very different.
DeleteHopefully the tech giants pushing STEM bill in CIR is strong enough this time
DeleteHello Ambal, I found your posts very relieving. When would you expect June 2007 PD in EB2 to be current. Can we expect any movement in the next month's bulletin (May 2013)? Murthy and other law firm sites show there would be no movement for EB2 India in 2013, Is this true? What would be ur expectation for PD by Sep 2013 bulletin?
ReplyDeleteI think June 2007 PD should be current in July 2013.
DeleteHi,
ReplyDeleteGood job in providing the detailed information.
Question: Do you have any insight for this years' H1B quota. How things look and what are the possibilities.
Appreciate your efforts.
Vineeta
USCIS thinks it will get over in the first week itself.
DeleteDo you know when we can expect feb 2008 to be current?
ReplyDeleteHopefully August 2013.
DeleteAmbals - I have a totally different Q - Where do you think EB2I date will end up in Oct 2013 ( first bulletin of FY2014) ? Do you feel it will retrogress to mid-2007 or 2006 or.... and why ?
ReplyDeleteVery hard to tell. Typically, I would expect whatever the date is on Sept 2013 to continue all the way till June 2013. But, DOS has done very different things looking at last few years October VB.
Deletewhat could the reasons for 485 be when you invoke AC21? Do we have to send the new job's soc code to USCIS? How can you invoke AC21 and what do we need to send? EVL? is that it? Do you have the format of the letter?
ReplyDeleteAlso, is there an email address and sample email which I can send to uscis so they will tell me if i am pre-ajudicated?
You need to consult a good immigration lawyer.
DeleteHello Ambals, With an EB2I PD of July 2007 I will probably be current in july but since this is my first time filing I-485, woud you suggest that I do my medicals for me and family beforehand or wait till PD is current ? I'm asking because I've heard that if PPD test is positive, it could take mont or two and I dont want to miss my window of filing again. Please advise what you think i should do since its my first time.
ReplyDeleteSure you can keep it ready. Please do keep in mind it is valid only for one year. Worst case, you might have to spend do it again.
DeleteHi Ambals,
ReplyDeleteMy priority date is April 28, 2008 filed under EB2 I. Any predictions?
Best case -- Sept 2013. Worst case -- Sept 2014.
Deletewas wondering about how did you come up with Spe 2013
DeleteDon't waste time on VB analysis fellows.
ReplyDeleteI have been closely watching, reading the VB for few years. It never made any sense to me. I strongly believe that this is hand written report by CO or his colleague. I can show tons of mistakes in DD report. You can do it by yourself if you compare few previous DDs/inventory. CO fooling around the people playing cheap, same age old porting scare tactic.
Frankly with budget cuts hitting them, it is possible they might open dates again and roll back again. With approx 20k coming off eb2 ead inventory thats $20m, the money has to come from somewhere. I see that as a possibility next year.
DeleteHi Ambals, I found your posts very informative. I agree, with the rate at which porting is happening from EB3 to EB2 and all other dates are current, I DO NOT see any movement for EB2 India in 2013.
DeleteHi Aditi Ganesh, Thanks much for all the analysis and predictions. This is providing some insights where we stand.
ReplyDeleteMy priority date is Aug 30, 2010. Any guess around which time frame would it be current based on the current statistics?
Thanks in Advance.
VS.
As per current trend, about 6 years from your priority date.
DeletePeople, stop being stupid and stop asking stupid questions like when will i get GC, come on folks, you are all educated. stop bugging ambal with this stupidity, he is responding to everyone, that is great. but have some respect for his time.
ReplyDeleteAgree fully!
DeleteHi Ambals,
ReplyDeleteMy priority date is April 16, 2010 filed under EB2.
Any prediction when will I get EAD / or Green card?
As per current trend, about 6 years from your priority date.
DeleteHi Ambals,
ReplyDeleteI was looking for some advice. My priority date is August 2008. I am fed up of my current job, and am looking to change it (I've already begun interviewing). Assuming my new employer files for my GC as soon as I join, my hope is that by the time my PD becomes current, I would have my Labor Certification approved with the new employer.
What do you guys think? Should I make a change at this stage? I really do not want to waste the next one year of my life working at a place I do not like.
Here is my thinking:
Best case: let's say my LC process starts in May 2013, it will be approved in 7-months (3 months advertisements + 4 months approval) so let's sat Dec 2013. PD becomes current sometime in 2014; I don't care.
Worst case: (1) PD somehow becomes current in Oct-2013 and I miss the boat because LC isn't approved. (2) Complications in LC, it gets audited etc. So is it worth the risk?
:-).
-P
My suggestion will be to wait till the end of this year -- Dec 2013. We will get a much better understanding with Sept and Oct VBs. Also, we will know where we stand on immigration bills.
DeleteHello Ambals, My EB2I PD of NOV 2006 I will probably be current in july but since this is my first time filing I-485,I submitted the medical reports and also finger prints in November 2011 itself,finger prints i have submitted in Jan2012.Suppose If my PD is current July 2013 will they ask for the medical reports and Finger prints again.....?
ReplyDeleteI don't think so.
DeleteAmbals - related Q - What happens if you file I-485 and then you receive RFE and your PD retrogresses ? Do you still get the EAD/AP? also will govt continue to process he application and get it "pre-adjudicated" awaiting visa till you become current again ?
DeleteMy EB2I PD is NOV 2006,Same above case..my husband filed a divorce in july 2012.Now the case is going on ..and it may be final in july 2013 or it may get delyed..it may be july begining or july ending ..i already approched the Lawer..But for the GC ..the USCIS wil check the back ground ..and will give effect to my GC ..Will try to get delay the divorce till july ending or september ending..pls advice ..
ReplyDeleteSorry to hear that. It is better if you delay it till July 2013 and hopefully you will get your GC in July. Also, please do keep consult with a good immigration lawyer.
DeleteHi Ambals,
ReplyDeleteMy PD is Jan 10, 2006 (EB2). What are the best case and worst case scenarios when the PD to be current? Looking at your posts, its most likely be current in July 2013. Can you please explain the rationale for your prediction? i.e, how many are ahead in the row before my PD and how many #s will be utilized by July 2013 etc.
Thanks
July 2013 to Sept 2013.
DeleteHi,
ReplyDeleteDo you think EB2 Sep 2004 will go further back?If it is likely, when do they move backward?I just ported my EB3 July 2004 to EB2.Wanted to file premium I140 on tomorrow.Would i get my GC before they move the dates back? Please let me know.
Thanks
RP
Yes. You are current now. If everything goes fine, you should get your GC soon. Any how the sept 2004 is effective atleast till April 2013 for sure.
DeleteExcellent Blog and thanks for analyzing and posting the information in a unbureaucratic language. My PD for EB-2 India is October 2008. From the above responses, I can estimate your projection to be July 2014? Does your projection also include the new VISA numbers that will be assigned in the next fiscal year (Oct, 2013)?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Yes. It includes the new VISA numbers. Yes. it will most likely be July 2014.
DeleteWhat happens if I file I-485 and then receive RFE and PD retrogresses ? Do I still get the EAD/AP? also will govt continue to process he application and get it "pre-adjudicated" awaiting visa till I become current again ?
ReplyDeleteWhen you file I-485, along with that you will file applications for EAD and AP. So, it will come in regular processing time (say, 3 months). No, it won't get pre-adjudicated. You have to be current when the RFE is cleared.
DeleteI have EB3-I priority date of August 2003. Currently have EAD and AP. My wife initially had EB3-I July 2006 priority. She got EB2-I labor and 140 approved last year. On the 140 approval her EB3 priority date has been applied.
ReplyDeleteHer lawyer said when her EB2 priority date becomes current they will link her application to mine. I have couple questions:
1. Will we need to go through entire round of finger printing etc again
2. If her dats becomes current in July 2013, is there a chance of us getting GC this year or have to wait till 2014?
Hi Ambals
ReplyDeleteA very optimistic question here. Several news sites are saying a bill is potentially be on Senate debate by April. If ( optimistic thinking) it passes in senate,
1. when do you think it becomes a law?
2. If there are some law changes in the legal route (EB category), when do you foresee a change in the EB waiting list/priority dates?
Of course #2 depends on #1
we are assuming two things:
Delete1. that the bill will pass
2. that the bill will remove or ease restrictions for EB categories
First things first, let the bill get drafted. We still have a long way to go. Chances look slim though.
Frankly, I don't think chances of the bill passing are slim. They have a huge senate majority and even some majority in the house, despite house ruling minority support. Problem is, Its not clear if they will propose giving GC's to Master's, PHD's. I haven't seen anything concrete about STEM in the draft that was released earlier. Few of the things that were clear in that draft were, H4 who are secondary beneficiaries of I 140's will be allowed to work until 485 approval. The other proposal is increasing EB gc's and reducing FB gc's. It was earlier speculated that anyone with a masters from an accredited university will get a gc, but doesnt look like that can happen. After all who needs these people (Sarcasm)
DeleteTo the above author,
Delete"I haven't seen anything concrete about STEM in the draft that was released earlier" - where did you see the draft? In fact which draft are you talking about? 'Gang of 8' draft is not published anywhere yet. How did you see that? As a fallback plan white house has its own draft that is published in white house website. I think we all have seen that. It has separate points about improving current legal immigration.
There was an initial 5 page proposal and an early draft.The proposal did say something about STEM, but the draft did not clarify much. The bill you will now have is more or less a final bill not a draft.
DeleteHi Ambals, Thank you for your great infomation!. I have a question about my GC process and here it is...
ReplyDeleteI am working for Company A and in locations X and GC process is filed by Company B location Y. I am thinking to go to Company B when PD is current. But here my question is, If company B is willing to do Corp to Corp with Company A in same Location X, do I get any issues with my Green Card Processing? Please suggest me !
Location = Client site
Thanks,
:).
Great article. Thanks for the useful info and insight.
ReplyDeleteOnly advantage of being a Pakistani is that EB2 is current but we have to suffer at the same time finding a decent job in this market....
ReplyDeletewe should go ahead and file petition for early GC process, we shouldn't be suffering after having all the master's degree and PHD'S. It is modern slavery , and it should be stopped , we have to raise our voice .
ReplyDeleteMy date is 18th March 2003 Eb3 India, when I can expect my date to be current?
ReplyDeletenever
DeleteHi, My Priority date is April 2008 EB2 - Any predictions on when will my date be current?
ReplyDeleteguys, please don't act like kids, check for similar comments that are already answered
DeleteI am thinking of applying my GC after 2 years. Any prediction when will the baby be born ?
ReplyDeleteabout 38 weeks after conceiving
DeleteHow much is the spill over are we expecting from EB2 ROW ? I can see that the demand for Eb2 Row has gone down(after allocation of visa's) from 4850(Oct demand data)- 150(April demand data)=4700. I believe EB2 ROW is allocated around 45188(EB2 world wide limit)-3163*2(India and china limit)=38862. Shouldn't there be a major spillover from Eb2 Row itself as there would be a lot that would be unused ? Am i missing something ?
ReplyDeleteHi, I am a Pakistani. Do you think I will get my GC quicker than India ? Why ? Are we more talented ?
ReplyDeleteIf you are a legal immigrant Pakistani, you will get your GC in 7-8 months in EB3.
DeleteIf you are an illegal immigrant Pakistani, you will get your Citizenship in 1 year.
You are not talented if you get GC quicker than India. It just means that not many people make it to USA from Pakistan. Many possibilities come to mind: can't afford, rarely qualify, can't escape bomb blast etc. are some examples.
DeleteGetting a GC has got nothing to do with talent ... It all depends on date of application of labor and the country of birth..
ReplyDeleteCurrently there are way too many smart Indians compared to the no. of smart Pakistanis in US..lol
Ambals,
ReplyDeleteI am looking at the May 2013 visa bulletin demand data for India
Demand prior to Jan 2005 is 425
Demand prior to Jan 2006 is 1150
Does the Jan 2006 number, which is 1150 includes 425?
If it does, let me know if the below makes sense:
The demand till Jan 2008 for India is 7,750.
The demand till Jan 2009 for India is 23,850. (Let's ignore China for now).
So, the demand in 2008 alone is 23,850 - 7,750 = 16100
Assuming equal number of applicants from India in each month -> 16,100 / 12 = ~1342 applicants from India every month.
Till Jan-May 2008, the demand for India is 5 * 1342 = 6,710.
Will that make the demand from India till May 2008 as 6,710 + 7,750 =14,460
(7,750 is the demand till Jan 2008)
I am thinking EB2 China would have gone to mid-May or possibly end of May 2008 in the May FY13 visa bulletin, so they can't eat the FB 18,000 visa spillover.
And the EB3 to EB2 conversion (~300 every month)is being taken away from the *regular* EB2 numbers for 2013, so they don't need to take the FB spillover visas.
Based on the above, will a person with a May 2008 priority date would likely get his GC by sep 2013?
Let me know if I am missing out things somewhere.
Thanks...
1. Yes 1150 is including 425. It is cumulative demand.
Delete2. For the actual numbers per month in 2008 -- I will go to I-485 pending Inventory data.
3. The biggest unknown is "spillover", only when that is clear, we can say exactly how it works out. Given the fact that EB5, EB1, EB2 ROW applications has increased and porting is constantly increasing, I feel it is tough to come to May 2008 this year.
Excuse my ignorance -
DeleteThe visa bulletin says that the dates are current for EB1/EB4/EB5 for all countries including India and China. If they are current, how would they eat a portion of the FB spillover?
This whole thing is so confusing. I can't figure out the chart. I'm applying for my spouse from Germany, so we would be F2A. Does that mean it will be 3 years before he gets a green card?
ReplyDeleteAre you permanent resident or US Citizen ? If you are perm resident then F2A. If you are US citizen then, it will be immediate relative: http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=1d383e4d77d73210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD&vgnextchannel=1d383e4d77d73210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD
Delete
ReplyDeleteIs there any amendment or proposal given in the forthcoming CIR over priority date or min total period from the date of filing GC, waiting period or proposal to bring it to current date etc for EB2 to GC.
Also can you please update over the proposal about getting EAD to H4 visa holders in the forthcoming Immigration Reforms (eligibility clauses)etc, if you know.