March 2014 Visa Bulletin was released last week. The Department of State has updated their website and it looks much better. We are still getting used to it with the navigation and new updated links.
EB2:
Date for EB2 India is 15 NOV 04 and EB2 China is 15 FEB 09. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.
The good news is EB2 China keeps moving forward. One more month this time.
I think EB2 India dates is going to stay the same till June 2014 Visa Bulletin. It might start moving big from July 2014.
The prediction section under the visa bulletin says that, there won't be any movement for EB2 India for now and there will be 3 to 5 weeks movement for EB2 China.
If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:
EB3:
Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 15 SEP 03 and EB3 Philippines is 01 MAY 07 and all other countries is 01 SEP 12.
Good news here is all countries except India and Philippines are at 01 SEP 12. Also, their corresponding dates have moved 3 months from last Visa Bulletin. For Philippines it has moved 2 weeks. Finally, we have seen 15 days movement for EB3 India.
The prediction section under the visa bulletin says that, EB3 Philippines will move 3 to 6 weeks. They inform that there will be very little movement for EB3 India in the coming months. They also inform that this might the case for rest of the countries as well.
I-485 Pending inventory:
New I-485 inventory was expected last month. There is no update yet on that. I-485 data will tell us a lot more about the number of applicants. It will also help us predict the date movements. We will keep a watch on that.
Demand Data:
Finally, the department of state has released the demand data this year. It shows that the demand is 10,550 under EB2 India category. For EB3 India, the number is 2,775.
Links:
You can see the official March 2014 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-march-2014.html
You can see the official Demand Data here -http://www.travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here -
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory
EB2:
Date for EB2 India is 15 NOV 04 and EB2 China is 15 FEB 09. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.
The good news is EB2 China keeps moving forward. One more month this time.
I think EB2 India dates is going to stay the same till June 2014 Visa Bulletin. It might start moving big from July 2014.
The prediction section under the visa bulletin says that, there won't be any movement for EB2 India for now and there will be 3 to 5 weeks movement for EB2 China.
If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:
- This blog post will help you, if you have not done vaccination - http://ambals.blogspot.com/2013/12/vaccination-record.html
- This blog post will help you, if you don't have your Birth Certificate or Marriage Certificate in place - http://ambals.blogspot.com/2013/06/affidavit-of-birth-along-with-i-485.html
EB3:
Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 15 SEP 03 and EB3 Philippines is 01 MAY 07 and all other countries is 01 SEP 12.
Good news here is all countries except India and Philippines are at 01 SEP 12. Also, their corresponding dates have moved 3 months from last Visa Bulletin. For Philippines it has moved 2 weeks. Finally, we have seen 15 days movement for EB3 India.
The prediction section under the visa bulletin says that, EB3 Philippines will move 3 to 6 weeks. They inform that there will be very little movement for EB3 India in the coming months. They also inform that this might the case for rest of the countries as well.
I-485 Pending inventory:
New I-485 inventory was expected last month. There is no update yet on that. I-485 data will tell us a lot more about the number of applicants. It will also help us predict the date movements. We will keep a watch on that.
Demand Data:
Finally, the department of state has released the demand data this year. It shows that the demand is 10,550 under EB2 India category. For EB3 India, the number is 2,775.
Links:
You can see the official March 2014 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-march-2014.html
You can see the official Demand Data here -http://www.travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here -
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory
Please guide us how demand data (for example, EB-3 India has 2775 before Jan 1st 2004) is different from pending i-485 inventory and what is more correct measure to figure out when GC will be approved
ReplyDeleteI-485 pending inventory gives the number of applicants. Typically, I-485 applicantion comes in demand data if it is assigned a visa number.
DeleteThank you for the blog. Good night.
ReplyDeleteSurprising thing is some folks who filed 485 last time are getting approvals now even if their date is not current. This is happening only for TSC. NSC is just stuck
ReplyDeleteThey are? What priority date is that?
Delete2006,2007 PD is what i saw on Trackit.
DeleteHello Ambals, I have a EB2I PD of June 17th,2008. Given the EB5/1 category filling up , EB3 porting, do you think my PD will get current in june/july of 2014? I will be applying for my I485- couldnt apply when it got current in 2012. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteI hope it becomes current in June 2014. If you apply I-485 within the first week, you should get it by Sept 2014.
DeleteThank you for your reply. I hope so too. Truly appreciate the time you take to answer our questions.
DeleteHello Ambals, How many visas are needed for the EB2I PDs to move into say July 2008? Is there any way that can be calculated or do we need to wait for the 485 inventory to come out.
DeleteAs per Jan 2014 inventory, atleast 4400. Hopefully they will make July 2008 current in July 2014.
DeleteHello Ambals, How are you saying that by June visa bulletin the EB2 India dates will move big time? Is it based on demand numbers or some other analysis? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteDOS has been following different strategies over the years. Recently, they are following a strategy wherein, they keep the dates as it is for most of first, second and third quarters of their fiscal year and then, they move it big in the last quarter -- based on the spillover.
DeleteHi Ambals,
ReplyDeleteI have H1b valid till 2015. I applied for my 485 in november, and ead/ap are approved and in mail now.
Some one said if I use my h1b and move,then i can move right away without affecting my green card process, is that true? or
do i still to wait till june ( when i would be get the 180 days complete for portability) for moving to companies with similar job description?
It is safer and cleaner to AC21 once all 3 conditions are met -- I-140 approved, EAD in hand, more than 180 days after I-485 notice date.
DeleteEb3 with PD June 2004 - when can we expect GC? Any thoughts
ReplyDeleteFor EB3 India, they just started moving the dates. According to latest I-485 pending inventory data, there are about 10,000 applicants in front of you. So, we are talking about another 3 years. Assuming there is lot of porting, then it is will be earlier.
DeleteI find this blog quite helpful, Do you know when can I expect an EAD for a PD of Sep 2011 for EB2 India?
ReplyDeleteCurrent trend is about 6 years for EB2 India.
DeleteAmbal what about EAD
DeleteIt is hard to tell about EAD. When the dates come closer to May 2010, they will open it up for increasing the I-485 application. We will get a better idea that time, on how close they come to Sept 2011.
DeleteAny idea how big the movement will be in June? My PD is Aug 2011 and I am sick of waiting. This whole process is so frustrating with the current pace it will take me 7 more years to get to 485 stage.
ReplyDeleteMy friend you applied in Aug 2011 and you are already sick in 2-3 years ? really ?
DeletePeople who applied in Eb3 in 2004 are still waiting and 2007 Eb2 guys are still waiting.
Don't be sick give it soem time you will get it and I wish all ou us get it ASAP but all we can do is wait.
current trend is about 6 years for EB2 India unless there is an immigration law change that is favorable.
Deletetrend is 6.5 to 7 years minimum for eb2. Not 6 years. I have dec 2007 pd for eb2 and dont have my gc approved yet. only ead. dont want to discourage anyone but thats the fact.
DeletePlease let me know about eb3 india. What is happen for big movements
ReplyDeleteEB3 India will move only at the same phase. Big movement will be for EB2 India based on spillover.
DeleteHi Ambal,
ReplyDeleteBased on the current inventory/Demand data do you still think PD EB2 Jan 20, 2010 will get GC in 6 years, that will be Jan 2016?
Thanks,
Rick.
At this point, yes.
DeleteHi Ambal,
ReplyDeleteEB3 ,PD Jan 2004. when we expect GC Pls.
thanks
Assuming Jan 2014 I-485 inventory data is correct, there are about 4000 folks in front of Jan 2004, for EB3 India. With this, hopefully it will become current in Feb 2015. I am sincerely hoping it will be sooner with more porting.
DeleteHi,
ReplyDeleteMy priority date is april 2009, EB2 India. DO you think I will get my EAD this year end ?
Very small chance in Sept 2014.
DeleteHi Ambals,
ReplyDeletewe are on Eb3, Jan 2004 PD. what are our changes on Eb3.
Do we have to port to EB2 ?. pls let us know your thoughts.
thanks so much
Assuming Jan 2014 I-485 inventory data is correct, there are about 4000 folks in front of Jan 2004. With this, hopefully it will become current in Feb 2015. I am sincerely hoping it will be sooner with more porting.
DeleteEven if you start your porting process now, it will become that long. So, it is better to wait.
Eb3 Philippines , PD Sept 2009. When can I expect my gc? Thanks..
ReplyDeleteNot sure at this point. Hopefully around August, they will open up the dates to increase I-485 inventory. That should give you EAD. Then, once they release the new inventory, sometime in November, we will get a better idea.
DeleteHi Ambals,
ReplyDeleteMy priority date is October 2009, EB2, India. When do you think I should expect to get my EAD?
Thanks!
2015 October
DeleteAt this point it looks more like, July 2015.
DeleteMy PD is June 23, 2008. I have applied for I485 in 2012 itself but never made it to the GC. What are the chances of me getting current this year? Since my I485 is already pending and I have done my fingerprinting too. Do I have to do anything once the date becomes current?
ReplyDeleteHopefully July 2014. Once it becomes, you shouldn't have to do anything, you should automatically get the GC.
Deletepls. write a blog for AC21 and how to invoke it.
ReplyDeletealso mention pros and cons when compared with h1b.
thanks
Hi Ambals. I 1485 inventory is already out. Any thought? Thanks
ReplyDeleteIn this link -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory -- I see only Oct 2013 data. can you please provide the link for new data ?
DeleteIs this what you are looking for? http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB-I-485-PendingInventory-2014-Jan.pdf
Deletehttp://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB-I-485-PendingInventory-2014-Jan.pdf
DeleteJan 2014 Pending Inventory is released. Any insight?
DeleteHere you go:
Deletehttp://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB-I-485-PendingInventory-2014-Jan.pdf
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory
DeleteThis has the 2014 Jan data. Can you provide your analysis based on this ?
Hi,
ReplyDeleteI have a priority date of Jan 15, 2009 for EB2 India. Any chance of getting the GC this year.
Thanks
No you will not
DeleteI believe there are really good chances that the dates will move up to Feb 2009 in the FY 2014. Ambals, you could shed more light on this.
DeleteHopefully Sept 2014
DeleteHi Ambals,
ReplyDeleteMy PD is Feb 2008. I have my EAD since I applied for I140 and AOS concurrently. Any chance of getting my GC this year?
Thanks
There is a good chance that you will get GC this year.
DeleteI am also in similar situtation, so lets hope !!!
Hopefully June 2014
DeleteHi my pd feb 2009 eb2i ...when can my dates will be current..any chances to move eb2i this summer....
ReplyDeleteMay be Sept 2014.
Deletewhat are the chances for EB2 INDIA Aug 21st, 2008 in 2014?
ReplyDeleteVery Very good.
DeleteHi Ambals, Did you infer this based on the 485 inventory that just came out? I also see that EB1 category has increased by a large amount..way more than last year..so there wont be spillover from that category right? Also EB3 porting has increased. Im new to these statistics- please correct me if wrong.
DeleteOct 2008 EB2 - Any luck in June?
ReplyDeleteVery good chance it will become current.
DeleteThe much awaited inventory is out. Can you share more insights on the Eb2 India movement or even a blog for that would be great.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory
Hello Ambals,
ReplyDeletePending Employment-Based I-485 Inventory for January 2014 available now.
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB-I-485-PendingInventory-2014-Jan.pdf
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB-I-485-PendingInventory-2014-Jan.xls
Could you please post your analysis when you get a chance.
Appreciate your support to the Immigration community.
Best Regards,
Raj
Hi Ambals,
ReplyDeleteIn the Oct 2013 I-485 Inventory, there are 885 EB3I cases for the month of Dec 2003.
Now, in the Jan 2014 I-485 Inventory, there are 1304 EB3I cases for the month of Dec 2003.
How is this possible? Any thoughts? Would greatly appreciate your insights.
I think it is data issue, not sure which one is correct.
DeleteNow that I485 Inventory data (as on Jan 2014) is out, can you give any indication when the PD will become current for 11Dec2003 EB3I?
ReplyDeleteHopefully Sept 2014. Assuming new inventory data is correct, there are roughly 3200 folks in front of you.
DeleteHi Ambals,
ReplyDeleteWhat are the chances of EB2-India July, 2009 becoming current this year?
Do you think it will become current next year if not this year?
At this point it looks more like July 2015.
DeleteHi ambals, based on the new inventory what are the chances of oct 07 eb3 p? Tnx in advance
ReplyDeleteHopefully, it will become current around June. Then, depending on how many applications of I-485 they get for Aug, Sept and Oct, it might come this year.
DeleteMY PD is 22 jun 2008 India. What are the chances to get EAD this year out of 50% to 100% ?
ReplyDelete95%
DeleteAmbals- My PD is EB21 July1st 2008. Applying for I 485 for first time. Im guessing the above estimate holds good for my PD when applying for 485 and not just for EAD right?
DeleteFirst, the date has to become current for your PD, then you can file the I-485. If all the documents with I-485 are filed satisfactorily, then, it will get approved within 3 months. Only catch is the date has to be current till it gets approved.
DeleteThanks Ambals..Do you know when this year my PD (july1st,2008) could get current?
DeleteCan we predict when movement will take place from the 485 data?
May 2009 EB2 India any chance GC this year?
ReplyDeleteVery less chance this year. Most likely July 2015.
DeleteJuly 2016 for sure.
Deletehow much % chances for EB2-I Jan 30,2009 to become current in this year?
ReplyDeleteonly 50%, even though it might have applied in 2012 when dates were current?
DeleteHi Ambal,
ReplyDeleteWhat is the prediction for Feb-2011 EB2 India ??
current trend is about 6 years from your priority date.
DeleteEB2I....PD: Feb-2007, RD: Oct-2013....what are the chances to get greened by this year?
ReplyDeleteIf the review is done on time, you should get in the last quarter of this fiscal year.
DeleteHello Ambal,
ReplyDeleteThank you for your time. Appreciate your help.
So how many EB2 cases get approved on a average each month? I have Dec 2007 EB2 PD and see around 1500 folks before me in the demand window. Any idea how many months more to get GC approved.
ReplyDeleteHopefully June 2014.
Deletehows that possible with 1500 folks ahead of me?? how many approx approvals per month
DeleteAbout 240 every month. But, for EB2 India, they start applying spillover sometime in the last 4 months of the fiscal. Hoping that will start in June 2014.
DeleteGood work! with the website.
ReplyDeleteMy situation - EB3 Priority Date - May 2008 (140 approved);
EB3 to EB2 in progress. EB2 PERM was filed in Aug 2013; Any chance I can concurrently file for 140 and 485 this summer? If so, what is your prediction for EAD and GC for me?
It is taking about 8 months for PERM to get approved. Once it is approved, you can file for I-140. I suggest you do premium processing. At that time, if your PD is current, you can file I-140 and I-485 concurrently. If all the documents with I-485 are filed satisfactorily, then, it will get approved within 3 months. Only catch is the date has to be current till it gets approved.
DeleteHi Ambals,
ReplyDeleteI have filed for my I140 and 485 concurrently. It is regular processing. I filed for it on November 2013. How soon do you think my I140 will be processed. Does it take 4 months? or is it taking more if its not premium processing? I already have my EAD and my PD is Feb 2008.
Thanks
About 3 months. You should be good.
DeleteMy priority date is Dec 2008, What are the chances of getting a GC by end of this year ?
ReplyDeleteHi Ambals,
ReplyDeleteJan-2014 I-485 Inventory for EB3-India shows numbers from 2002 and before. What 'could' be the reason for these applicants to still be on the list? And if they have not got their GC yet then is it safe to assume that 'potentially' most of them will still stay on the list for quite some time?
Thanks!!
May be it is a complicated Case with RFE, they are still working through it. We cannot really tell anything about when it might get resolved.
DeleteWhat are %chances to get EAD with eb2 I feb 2009 PD....
ReplyDeleteFeb 2015
Delete50% chance to get in Sept 2014.
DeleteI have a previous I140 with a priority date of April 2008. My company got acquired and I had to do the whole GC process from scratch. My attorney told me that they can file PERM early April.
ReplyDeleteBased on this, I had a couple of questions -
1. How long does a PERM typically take?
2. Do you think I should be able to file my concurrent I-140 and I-485 before this financial year in October? If so, how long does it take to get an EAD and GC?
1. about 8 months.
Delete2. If PERM comes approved by october, sure, you can file concurrently. After that you can get EAD in about 60 days. For GC, you can get in 3 months after you file I-485, if your PD is current and you have filed everything properly.
Thanks for the info.. My PD is sept 2009, can you let me know when can I get EAD.
ReplyDeleteSep 2015
DeleteHopefully, July 2015.
DeleteHi Ambals...I have a PD of July 1st,2008 EB2I. Can I assume I can get current this year? Also when can dates move? Thank you!
ReplyDeleteHopefully June 2014.
DeleteEB2 India :-
ReplyDeleteAny Month 2008 = 2014
Any Month 2009 = 2015
Any Month 2010 = 2016
Any Month 2011 = 2017
Thats the prediction..........................
And
DeleteAny Month 2012 = 2020
Any Month 2013 = 2022
( Courtesy EB3 to EB2 porting)
Hi Ambals,
ReplyDeleteMy priority date is EB2 Dec 2010, any idea when this date would be current so that I can apply for I485?
Thanks
When the date comes close to May 2010, they should open up to get I-485 inventory, that time should be able to apply for I-485.
DeleteFolks have some sense and try to read the thread.
ReplyDeleteHey Ambals - what is the likelihood that they will try to build out inventory for the remainder of 2010 and move the dates beyond May 2010 in July - September this year? Is there any historical precedent for that? My PD is May 7 2010 EB2I and I'm trying to see if there is any chance at all of filing I-485 this year.
ReplyDeleteYou can file your I-485 now also.
DeleteWorst case, USCIS will reject it. But that should not prevent you from filing your I-485.
Mostly it will be around June 2015.
DeleteIs there any website that lists out all the prior PDs over several years rather than having to open up every document from the visa bulletin page?
ReplyDeletecan you also please provide any status on the labor certification process? what do you think about the labors filed in month of december - what would be the situation?
ReplyDeleteOfficial site is here -- https://icert.doleta.gov/ -- they say it is June 2013 as of Feb 5.
DeleteUnofficial tracking is here -- http://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigration-trackers/atlanta-perm -- it shows July 22, 2013 as of March 5, 2014.
Hi Ambals, This is what someone in a forum said about the I140 approvals
ReplyDeleteIt really depends on which officer your application was assigned to and what's his workload. October is still basically untouched for both Texas and Nebraska, so November is quite far ahead.
My I140 was filed in November 2013. Are they still taking 4 months or are they taking longer now? I am starting to get a little worried.
Not sure. If you see here -- http://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigration-trackers/i140 -- the range is pretty wide.
DeleteApril visa bulletin is out (just wanted to be first :))
ReplyDeleteLookin forward to ur analysis about the latest visa bulletin and I485 inventory report
ReplyDeleteThanks everyone for your interest in this site.We appreciate your support.
ReplyDeleteI think we should give some time for Ambals to give his analysis on the April VB and predictions for the next few VB.
Looks like Ambals have lost interest in analysing any EB2-I predictions.
ReplyDeleteIts going nowhere.
Hi Ambala - any guess for EB2 india with Dec 30 - 2009 priority date. in this Year 2014 or 2015 ??/
ReplyDeleteRegards,
Rhl
Same question as Rihil?
ReplyDeleteSame as above.
ReplyDeleteGood work. Thank you for regularly providing an update.
ReplyDelete