April 2014 Visa Bulletin was released last week.
EB2:
Date for EB2 India is 15 NOV 04 and EB2 China is 08 MAR 09. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.
The good news is EB2 China keeps moving forward. Almost a month movement.
As expected no movement for EB2 India. I think EB2 India dates is going to stay the same till June 2014 Visa Bulletin. It might start moving big from July 2014.
If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:
- General list can be found here - http://ambals.blogspot.com/2013/07/getting-ready-to-file-i-485.html
- This blog post will help you, if you have not done vaccination - http://ambals.blogspot.com/2013/12/vaccination-record.html
- This blog post will help you, if you don't have your Birth Certificate or Marriage Certificate in place - http://ambals.blogspot.com/2013/06/affidavit-of-birth-along-with-i-485.html
EB3:
Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 15 SEP 03 and EB3 Philippines is 15 JUN 07 and all other countries is 01 SEP 12.
Good news here is all countries except India and Philippines are at 01 OCT 12. Also, their corresponding dates have moved 1 month from last Visa Bulletin. For Philippines it has moved 1.5 months.
In a surprise move, the EB3 India date didn't move forward. I was expecting it to move one week per visa bulletin.
I-485 Pending inventory:
New I-485 inventory was released in Jan 2014. Thanks to USCIS for improving the format. It is much easier to read now. The CSV download has been replaced by excel download, which gives different tabs for different countries.
There are 118,478 applicants pending in the new inventory data while it was 116,159 last time.
EB2 India has 31,242 applicants pending before 01 MAY 2010. The number has reduced from 32,539 from the last time data. There are 12,405 applicants before 01 JAN 09 priority date. Depending on the number of applicants porting from EB3 to EB2, the date can very well cross 01 JAN 09 this year, assuming the same amount of spillover EB2 India gets like previous years.
EB3 India has 32,066 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. Even though it has reduced from 34,336 from last inventory data, the number for Dec 2003 has increased from 885 to 1304. This makes it tough for the dates to cross DEC 2003 by Sept 2014.
There still seems to be some data errors. For example, there are 5 applicants listed under EB2 India for August 2013. There is one applicant listed under EB3 Philippines for May 2008.
Demand Data:
There is no demand data yet corresponding to April 2014 bulletin.
Links:
You can see the official April 2014 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-april-2014.html
You can see the official Demand Data here -http://www.travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here -
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory
Thanks Ambals. I have a query. The stages for GC for EB2 are labor-->I-140-->I-485 and GC. I-485 data shows people who have applied for I-485. Where do we get the data for applicants who have I-140 pending/approved and in queue for I-485. is it part of demand data?
ReplyDeleteI-140 and I-485 can be applied for concurrently. You don't need to wait for I-140 approval to apply for I-485.
DeleteDemand Data gives the visa number that DOS has assigned for I-485 applicants.
DeleteTrackitt.com gives an idea, not everyone is there.
The labor department data gives the labor list.
Hi Ambals,
ReplyDeleteIn your assessment, by which month and year, March 2009 EB2 priority date should go current?
Appreciate your efforts...
Little chance it might get current in August 2014.
DeletePretty positive EB2 will be advanced to atleast Jun 09 by Aug/Sep 2014
DeleteHi Ambals,
ReplyDeleteI'm not going to ask you when my PD will be current. Don't worry! My question is - Historically, by end of every fiscal year (September), does cut off date for India match the cut off date of China. For instance, if the cut off date for china becomes June 2009 on September 2014, will India's cut off date also be in May or June 2009 time frame? Thanks!
lol asking about when your PD will be current would had been better question than what you asked,On what logic you expect them to be same time frame :).
DeleteAs per the rule, if China is ahead of India then all the spill over will go to India only. If there is not enough spill over then India may still lag behind. On other hand if there is lots of spill over left, even after India reaching the same date as China then both country will move together (i.e. both country will have same priority date).
DeleteThis is the only rule which is followed, dont depend on history data to make a rule like both country will have the same cutoff date always (although it might be same historically, it does not mean that it is a rule). As explained above, there are chances that India may lag behind.
Hope this helps.
Thanks for the rule. That is a perfect explanation for the question.
DeleteFirst of all thanks for writing this blog & providing latest information to us. I am sure this will create a good laugh for most of the people. I have a PD of Apr 2010 in EB3 india category. That's right EB3 India. Is there a reason to even hope that something might work out in next 5 years without the reform. I can't depend on the reform as it gets shot down almost always. So just wanted to see what the experts out here think about this. Online calculators are telling me dates in the year of 2038 :) Are those realistic ...
ReplyDeleteThere are over 32K people waiting before you who are still waiting to get their I-485 approved and not to mentioned the unknown numbers of others who have approved I-140 that have not filed their I-485. I would say that year 2038 is realistic!
DeleteWow.. What triggers down making dates current. If I remember correctly, EB3 Dates were made current back in 2007. Is there a reason to assume that it will happen again in future.
DeleteYou should start working on porting to EB2 India.
DeleteWithout reform, 2038 is correct. Sorry, that is the truth.
Did you use this calculator...http://www.myprioritydate.com/?
DeleteIt is the most ridiculous thing. Put in a date in 2007. Itll say youll get current in 2020 or something
hi Ambals,
ReplyDeletemy pd is 31st dec 2008 india eb2......is there is good chance for me to get my gc this yr ??????? or i have wait .... thanks a lot ..
mine is pretty much same time as yours. Hope it's current in July this year.
DeleteYes. Hopefully July 2014 it will become current.
DeleteThank you for the analysis. What do you think about PD in June 2009? Any chance this year?
ReplyDeleteI am in the same boat ... most likely scenario is July 2015 so another 15 mths to go ..... no chance this year
DeleteThere are about 19,000 applicants in front of you as per latest inventory data. Assuming, about 5,000 porting, there has to be 25,000 immigrant visas available for EB2 India. Given this, it is more likely June 2015.
DeleteHow did you calculate this.
DeleteIs it like 25000/15 moths to get to June 2015 = 1667.
So 1667 GC are given per month?
Just curious to know the calculation.
EB2 India is unique in the sense, they wait for the spillover numbers to be clear and they apply them during last quarter of fiscal -- july, aug and sept. So, most visas are given during that time.
DeleteHow did you assume the 5000 porting. Any basis for that
Deleteporting cases won't be added to the pending inventory queue anymore unless the applicant has pd before sep 2004 or the date advances to cover the applicant's PD and he files I-485 at the time. we know from latest demand data that about 1500-2000 porting cases came in since they last published the demand data numbers. Considering all this, A figure of 5000 is way too high.
DeleteHey Ambal,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your blog. Hey one quick question, I know it won't be anytime soon but can you guess when can my PD be current, Dec 2012, EB2.
Thanks for your advice :)
2019 May
DeleteFor EB2 India, it is about 6 years from your priority date.
DeleteHello Ambals- from the inventory, it seems like EB1 usage has increased many fold, so has EB5 and porting from EB3 to 2 as well. I am worried this will reduce spillover by quite a bit. I have a PD of June 25, 2008 EB2. Is there any reason to believe that my PD wont get current? Will be applying for AOS. Would appreciate your insights.
ReplyDeleteHopefully, you will be current June 2014.
DeleteThanks for the reply. Do you mean we should see movement in the June bulletin? Earlier in the year USCIS predicted that there will be movement in May. Did they mean May bulletin?
DeleteBased on historical trends, You may see forward movement in July/Aug/Sep 2014 bulletin for EB2 India. Either way, you are getting your GC this year.
DeleteHi ambals.
ReplyDeleteplease enlighten me, how does the 1485 inventory differ from the demand data in terms of estimating our pd to be current. Tnx much.
Demand Data -- Published by DOS. They are "pre-adjudicated" numbers.
DeleteI-485 inventory -- Published by USCIS. Count of all the pending I-485 applications.
Thank u sir.just a follow up question, So our queue in the gc would be at the end of demand data + 1485 inventory list?
DeleteThere is some overlap. We don't know exactly how much. Demand Data has people who did counselor processing while I-485 pending inventory does not have it, while, I-485 pending inventory has people who have not been assigned visa numbers.
DeleteExcellent analysis and thanks a million for the time and effort you put into this every month! My priority date is march 2010 in India EB2. Do you think have a snowball's chance of being current next year if there is no reform? Thanks again, and I truly appreciate what you are doing for the community here.
ReplyDelete2015 July OR 2016 May.
DeleteFor EB2 India, it is about 6 years from your priority date.
DeleteHi Ambals,
ReplyDeleteIs it a risk if someone changes the job as soon as getting the GC (ie., from the employer who filed the GC to the new employer)? Have you heard of any issues reported from such people? Will it impact in anyway when applying for Citizenship?
It is preferable to be there for 1 year. Atleast 6 months. Check this -- http://www.murthy.com/2013/06/24/job-change-during-or-after-i-485-approval/
DeleteOne of my friend left his company after a week of gettnig his GC. He said if your company has no issues in leaving the job then there will not be any problem. Is this a true statement?
DeleteIt might cause issues during citizenship application.
DeleteThank you Ambals for all your work .... Job well done ....
ReplyDeleteRespected sir
ReplyDeleteany chance of PD 22feb 2004 EB3 India to be current this year
At the rate at which it is going, it will be mostly next year.
DeleteDo you foresee any spillover to EB3 India from EB3 ROW this year?
ReplyDeleteHi Ambals,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your blog. Hey had a quick question, I know it won't be anytime soon but can you guess when can my PD be current, July 2011, EB2.
Thanks for your advice :)
At current trend, it is 6 years from your PD for EB2 India.
Deletein 2018
DeleteThanks for all your work. When do you think May 2009 will become current?
ReplyDeleteEB2 India, May 2009, mostly July 2015.
Deletemay 2009 PD, there is a chance it will become current this aug 2014. if not, next july/aug 2015.
DeleteThanks for writing this blog. It helps a great deal in understanding in the GC queue. I have a question about my PD. I have a PD of Apr 2008. But the perm with my new employer was filed in Jan'14. Given the current wait time of 9 months, it would get approved(hopefully) in October. Do you think the dates will rollback in October/Nov or stay after the predicted big move in July/Aug?
ReplyDeleteTotally depends on DOS strategy. This fiscal they kept till Nov. We have to wait want watch if they roll back in oct or wait for couple of months.
DeleteDates will be definitely be rolled back in the nov 2014 bulletin. and your date will most likely become current this year.
DeleteMy PD is 1st Oct 2009. Do you think there is chance of getting GC by end of this year. Similarly there are chances of moving back to India in Feb 2015. In that case, if GC is not received, my GC application will still be valid?
ReplyDeleteFor EB2 India, 1st Oct 2009, mostly July 2015.
DeleteFor the other question, please consult with a good immigration lawyer after explaining your specific case.
You will get your visa number allocated by next aug (2015). If you move to india and don't maintain a employment relationship with your petitioning company, your petition will not be valid and will not be granted GC. please consult with lawyer.
DeleteHi ... Can you advise when June 2006 eb2 will become current. I have ported from eb3 and have just cleared labor certification . Any idea how long before I can get my gc?
ReplyDeleteI am hoping June 2014.
DeletePlease do apply for I-140 and be ready. Preferably in premium.
I dont see any discussion on EB3 ROW, however I was wondering if can predict if i wil become current in the next 1-2 months as my priority date is Dec 2012 (ROW)?
ReplyDeleteMost likely since the inventory is really low, I am assuming they will move the dates forward over next couple of months, or otherwise they will a lot of spillover from EB3ROW to EB3 India..am i correct?
There will be couple of months movement as the demand is very low for EB3 ROW. Average 485 processing time is 4 months and they can not approve all new 485 applications even though they get huge amount of applications, so there will be some spillover to EB3 I and P
DeleteThanks for your analysis it helps a great deal.
ReplyDeleteWhat are my chances of getting a gc this year with PD - Jan 30, 2009 priority date for Eb2 India.
50% chance this year.
DeleteMy pd is 30 july 2004 in eb 3 india so when I get my gc
DeleteThere are about 9800 folks in front of 30 july 2004, EB3 India date. Even if we assume 3000 GCs given and some goes in porting, it will be another 3 years.
DeleteIt is preferable to port to EB2 India.
you will get it this year in july/aug/sep
DeleteHi ambal, my pd is dec 1 2003 ep3. When do you expect that will become current?
ReplyDeleteFor EB3 India, 1 DEC 2003, according to current inventory numbers, it will be Nov 2014. But, I am hoping there will be some porting and adjustment of numbers. In that case, it will be earlier.
DeleteHi
DeleteI don't have any master degree still I can apply for eb2 category and how many years experience need for that
EB2 INDIA
ReplyDeleteChance of Jan 2009 is 50% this year
Chance of May 2009 is 0% year, likely July 2015.
may be a repeat question but what you think is chance for 3 March 2009? 50% or clearly next year?
40%. The unknowns will be how many visas will EB2 India get and how many applicants will be porting to EB2 India.
DeleteI am positive it might move upto may/june 2009 this year. so, you do have a chance of getting visa number allocated this year.
DeleteHow can one calculate the porting trends. What numbers to see and how to calculate. Im trying to find the total number of applications for EB2 for Dec 21 2012 including the porting from EB3
ReplyDeletePorting is an ongoing process that happens through out the year. It is very hard to get the actual count. You can get the trend from websites like trackitt.com
Deletehi ambals since my PD is in 2012 I changed my jobs 7th year of h1B, i have a question regarding h1-B
ReplyDeleteHi,
I have a question with respect to my H1B visa.
My PERM & I-140 were approved from employer A and EB2 priority date is july-2012. I joined employer B in march 2013 and the GC hasn't been initiated (H1-B expiry march 2016)
Now I want to change jobs and wish to join employer C.
My concerns are:
1. Can Employer C easily transfer my H1B wthout any issue
2. I know Employer A hasn't revoked my 140 so how many years extension do I get 2 years or 3 years.
3. Once Employer C files my GC will I have any issues .
It is best to contact an immigration lawyer and give specific information and get it cleared.
DeleteHi Ambals,
ReplyDeleteGreat job with the blog, my PD is Jan 24th 2004 (EB3), when do you think that'll be current? Also, how did the Dec 2003 numbers jumped by 500? Your insights are greatly appreciated.
Thanks,
Anon
your number will be current late this year or early next.
DeleteAt this point, it looks more like next year.
DeleteI am new to this blog, and overall GC process. My priority date is 1st Dec, 2008. When can i expect to be able to file for EAD and/or GC? Also, apart from documents, is there anything else one could ready to ensure faster processing? Thank you for response!
ReplyDeleteSorry - for to mention that the PD is 1st Dec, 2008 for EB2 India
Deleteyou will get your visa number allocation this aug/sep 2014. give it a couple of months to actually receive your greencard.
DeleteHopefully, you should be able to file I-485, EAD, AP in June 2014.
DeleteJan 2008 eb2 pd. Any hopes of getting GC this year??
ReplyDeleteAs someone said, all 2008s- 2014 and all 2009s - 2015 for sure !!
Deletei would upto may 2009/Jun 2009 PD would be this year. rest of 2009 and a little bit of 2010 next year. In addition, next year, there is chance of some kind of legislation going through (comprehensive immigration reform).
DeleteIf you have already filed, I-485, hopefully you will get your GC in July. If not, you should be able to file in July and get it in 3 months, as long as your PD is current.
DeleteOctober 10, 2003 eb3 pd. any chance of gc this yeae? 4 weeks away from being current
ReplyDeleteMine is Oct 6th 2003 EB3-I. I'm 3 weeks away from current. Our dates should hopefully become current by July 2014 visa bulletin if not sooner. If you are a 2007 filer, then you will get it reasonably faster once you become current. You can plan for summer Niagara falls or Canadian Rockies vacation! :-)
DeleteDecember 11, 2003 EB3-I here. Do you think I can expect to have GC by Aug 2014 or Sep 2014?
DeleteMine is Dec 11, 2013 EB3-I. Do you think I can expect to have GC in my hand by Aug 2014 or Sep 2014?
Delete@vsv . You should have already got it by now if ur priority date is Dec 2013 EB3 - I. First preference goes to only you and then the rest.
DeleteSorry, I meant my PD is December 11, 2003 (not 2013). And it is EB3 India. Can I expect to have GC by Aug 2014 or Sep 2014
Delete@vsv, It is possible but dont count on it. More likely you will get in next year's quota which starts in October 2014. Hang in there! We also saw that Dec 03 inventory count increased by few hundreds.
DeleteFor Oct 10 -- hopefully in July.
DeleteFor Dec 11 -- hopefully in Nov.
Hopefully, there will be more porting and more spillover and you can get it earlier. I can totally understand the frustration. Hang in there. It is very close.
Thanks Ambals
DeletePD : Jan 2010 EB2 India, any chance this year?
ReplyDeleteno chance this year. next year, yes.
DeleteOnly if there is a legislative change.
DeleteWith current trend, it totally depends on number of porting.
My PD is July 2008 and I field my 485 Jan 2012. Other than the normal receipts and the ead, I never received anything from the service center. My question is that is it possible that they haven't reviewed my file yet or is it safe to assume that all the documentation was acceptable . Is there a way to find out.
ReplyDeleteyou are good on your application. just a waiting game for your visa number to be allocated at this point.
DeleteYou can call USCIS customer service number and give your I-485 number and check with them.
DeleteWhat are the chances of eb2i reaching feb 2009.. Actually I have to travel outside country and afraid that if my dates get current then I have to rush n come back..planning to go in June to August... Please any suggestions.....
ReplyDeleteThere is a 50% chance it will be come current.
DeleteFirst of all, this blog is really helpful. Have a quick question, how come all the india PD became current in 2007? What was the logic? Do u see that happening again? My PD is July 2009, looks like i am going to miss this boat since my labor will be filed now (PD from previous employer).. Not sure how long it will take for labor approval..
ReplyDeletelabor is taking 7-8 months per reports. Yes, you will miss the boat if you are unable to file I-485 before Oct/Nov bulletin (when it is expected to retrogress). but you will be ahead of the queue for next year.
DeleteI don't see it becoming current like 2007.
DeleteLabor takes about 8 months with no review.
Mine is EB2I April 5 2009. How would you rate the chances in percent for this year. I am planning to go for vacation around sep time.If it's more than zero , I plan to stay.
ReplyDeleteThanks
Chances are good that your date might become current this aug/sep. If your I-485 application is already in, there is nothing more that you need to do. so, your presence is not required. however, if you haven't filed your petition, then make sure to provide your lawyers with all the necessary documents to file i-485, ead and ap before you go vacation. if you are unsure your lawyer will work with you during your overseas stay, then you may have to think about postponing your vacation to a later time.
DeleteThere is a very little chance. Yes. More than zero.
DeleteHere is my prediction for EB2-I:-
ReplyDelete1. Oct-2014 - It will come till Feb 2009
2. Oct 2015 - It will come all the way till Mar 2011.
There is very less demand during later months of 2010 and begining of 2011.
But demand after Apr-2011 till 2013 are the heighest so far. So expect a delay of 7-8 years of processing for such dates.
How about priority date of Dec 2, 2011 , Even this one wont be current till Oct 2018 then as per your prediction? ..Hoping atleast could get EAD by oct 2016 (not actual GC ) .Do you think its even realistic or am i having just wishful thinking ? .. Appreciate any inputs
DeleteThings may happen like in 2007, they can just make everybody current in both EB2 & EB3 for few days and pull back. But chances are very slim to none.
ReplyDeleteDec 2 2011, will be current sometimes in 2018 as per the calculation.
The demand for EB2-I after Mar-2011 is madly high. With EB3 porting, things may be more worse.
But let's hope for the best.
Great job with this blog post!! really helpful.
ReplyDeleteMy Priority date is september 2010 . When do you think it will become current ?
I am planning to apply for Business school as soon as I get my green card and want to get the general timeline
Thanks in advance !!
Oct 2015
DeleteCurrent trend is 6 years from your priority date for EB2 India.
DeleteWhen will May'2010 will become current? ANy chance for this year?
ReplyDeleteWhen the dates for EB2 India comes closer to May 2010, they have to open up the inventory. So, it might happen around Oct 2015.
DeleteI have a general question. Why do visas allotted for Family category spill over to Employment category while the former category itself is backlogged?
ReplyDeleteTrue. But, that is how the law is designed.
DeletePD 2009 OCT any change this year getting current
ReplyDeleteAt this point it might be in July 2015 -- for EB2 India Oct 2009.
DeleteGo thru the posts above before asking questions.
ReplyDeleteHi I need some help with correcting my employer's name and address. Since last two i140 and H1B submissions i got quarry for address and name mismatch. Please advice as i'm start preparing documents for 485 and dont want to get same quarry again.
ReplyDeleteThanks
Best is to contact a good immigration lawyer and explain your specific situation.
DeleteI read your blog everytime its updated and it actually gives me hope. My PD is april 1st 2004. Any predictions when I can get MY GC
ReplyDeleteNeither this ambal nor the other ambaal up there can answer your question without knowing the category and country of birth! Having said that I believe you are EB3-I. There are 6547 applicants before you which means Second quarter 2016 assuming no spillover and some porting.
DeleteNEED ADVISE
ReplyDelete1) H1 is valid till March-2016
2) Passport visa stamping is valid till March-2016
3) Currently working as a full time
4) Due to medical condition of family member in India, I've to go back to India
5) If i leave my current employer and come back after few months or one year.
Can I join back to existing employer? Can i use my current H1b visa to re-join? or employer has to file new petition?
It is best to consult a good immigration lawyer and ask your questions.
DeleteEB3-I PD 17th Nov 2003. I got a RFE email. Don't know what it is about yet. But, wanted to share that they are apparently processing cases of that PD.
ReplyDeleteAlso, should I be worried? I am working for the same Employer since 2002.
Hi,
DeleteI hope there is nothing for you to worry. I guess it should give a glimmer of hope. Actually, looking at your comment, I am getting a glimmer of hope as my PD is Dec 11, 2003.
Please keep us posted on what that RFE is about.
BTW, I am also like you...with the same employer for the past 14 yrs who filed for my GC. So, I am curious to see what your RFE is about.
Most of the RFEs on personal side are for Birth Certificate. Keep us posted.
Delete"Glimmer of Hope"!! That was the purpose of mentioning the PD for many other who like me have lost years & opportunities in pursuit of the GC and have resigned to fate.
DeleteJust like many others, to me your(Ambals) blog has been my support system. Thanks Again.
PD is DEC 1 2003 EB3 and I just got a RFE. Need current company letterhead indicating job is still available for which the petition was filed. Also need to do medicals again...
ReplyDeleteShould I be concerned or feel relief that they may be working on my app?
Medicals again!!!! Looks like they have decided to squeeze out as much money as possible out of us?
DeleteHi,
DeleteProbably good news. Dates might probably move.
Just curious...did you change jobs after filing 485? or Did you file AC21?
AC21
DeleteI got RFE for Medicals and EVL. Wife got RFE for Medicals. EB3-I Oct 2003 PD. It stated that automatic one year extension for medicals is expiring on 05-31-2014
DeleteHi Ambal thanks a lot for your blog's helpful info. For 2013 Fiscal year PD of EB-2I got moved for 10 months from Aug 15 2007 to Jun 15 2008. And for FY 2014 your assumption for the PD is just 01 Jan 2009 that is close to 6 and half months.Many other sites are predicting the PD to 01 Jun 2009 can you please come up with new PD that is more realistic :)
ReplyDeleteMY Pd for EB2India is Nov. 2010. Any chances for this or next year when?? TIA.
ReplyDeletePD 10th April, 2010. EB3 ROW. Filed I485 on 8th October 2013. Done with FP in November, 2013. Received EAD and AP also in November 2013. I485 status still in acceptance mode. Please advise. Thanks
ReplyDelete