Wednesday, April 13, 2016

What to expect in FY 2016 - EB2 India Priority Date Movement and Analysis


Estimated 140,300 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2015 and 30 September 2016 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.

Last few years EB2 India has received good amount of spill overs. Unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case). But, last year the number for EB2 India was relative less compares to the previous years.

The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2015 - 7,235
FY 2014 - 23,527
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

The number of visas available through spillovers on the top of the regular 2,809 visas available and number of applicants porting from EB3 India to EB2 India -- are the two factors that will decide the date movement at the end of every fiscal year. Let us see different scenarios for Sept 2016 visa bulletin EB2 India date.

Best Case Scenario:
The average over the last few years about 13,000. Assuming that number and assuming 4000 porting. Then, according to numbers in Jan 2016 I-485 pending inventory, the date will clear the inventory and move to 01 AUG 09.
Worst Case Scenario:
If there are only 7000 available visas and if there is 2500 porting between Jan and Aug, then, according to numbers in Jan 2016 I-485 pending inventory, the date will move to 01 JAN 09.
Most Likely Scenario:
According to me, the most likely scenario is 01 APR 09 -- assuming about 8,000 visas available and about 2000 porting between Jan and Aug.

Data Sources:
I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

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236 comments:

  1. As per your analysis the country which is most retrogressed gets the bulk of green card. But if you look at EB3 green card numbers from 2015, you will notice that Philippines has gotten more green cards in Eb3 than India. Isn't this the case, where USCIS/DHS is not following its own rule ?

    ReplyDelete
  2. why are not actively posting and commenting recent visa bulletins ???

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thank you for posting the predictions. It's been pretty long you posted those and we were all eagerly waiting for your verdict (That's the confidence we have in your predictions :)

    Any predictions for PD Aug 2010 ? Thank you and keep chiming in :)

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Ambals,
    PD is June 2010 EB2 India, when can we expect EAD?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It will get current in 2017, If the spill over is huge in 2016,2017. Otherwise 2018 for sure.

      Delete
  5. Thanks for posting again. Why do you think they are moving the priority date for eb2 so slowly?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Pointless. 3rd division BCom from India with fake manager title in fraudulent consultancies are getting green card by EB1C within 6 months while folks with MS/PhDs from top tier universities are stuck in decade long queues.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Thanks for the analysis.. so filing dates are dead now.. if its still active will it move beyond July 2009? Any predictions on that front or its a gone story no more filing date concept.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Its dead with pending lawsuits

      Delete
    2. Lawsuit was a clever ploy to halt filing date........

      Delete
    3. What a waste of 'Filing Date' !!
      Lawsuit is the culprit.

      Delete
  8. Thank you Ambals. Please post your blogs always as it give us motivation by ready the blog. My PD is EB2I 02/2011. Any idea when can we file EAD and AP? Thank you!!

    ReplyDelete
  9. Thank you Ambals. Please post your blogs because that really gives us motivation. My PD is EB2I 02/2011. Any idea when can we file our EAD and AP? Thank you!!

    ReplyDelete
  10. From May 2016 Visa Bulletin:

    VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS:

    During the past month, there have been extremely high levels of Employment-based demand in most categories for cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services for adjustment of status. If this sudden and unanticipated change in the demand pattern continues, it could impact final action dates in the coming months and possibly require corrective action in some..

    It seems that final action dates will retrogress in coming months.

    ReplyDelete
  11. My PD is Aug, 2012 under EB2 (India). Any idea when it will get current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sep 2021 or 2022

      Delete
    2. After 2011, anything with 10+ years would be optimistic.

      Delete
    3. 2009 - 2016, 2017 ( 7-8 years)
      2010 - 2018, 2019 ( 8-9 years)
      2011 - 2020, 2022 ( 9 - 11 years)
      2012 - 2024, 2026 ( 12 - 14 years)
      2013 - 2027, 2030 ( 15- 17 years)

      Delete
  12. Hi My PD is Aug, 2012 (EB2 India). Any idea when it will be current?

    ReplyDelete
  13. I will go to other prospective countries without wasting my life.

    ReplyDelete
  14. My Priority Date is Sept 22 2009 when can i expect PD to be current.

    ReplyDelete
  15. My guess is it will be 2018 for 2009 May to December and folks in 2010 will get between 2019 to 2022. Dates will roll back to 2006, porting and lack of rollover from eb1/eb5 will cause delays. I hope to be proven wrong and people will get early. I request folks not to think too much even though it's bad and be happy with the beautiful life we have. Mine is august 2010

    ReplyDelete
  16. PD - Best possible, worst possible ( years taken )
    ----------------------------------------------
    2009 - 2016, 2017 ( 7-8 years)
    2010 - 2018, 2019 ( 8-9 years)
    2011 - 2020, 2022 ( 9 - 11 years)
    2012 - 2024, 2026 ( 12 - 14 years)
    2013 - 2027, 2030 ( 15- 17 years)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's scary

      Delete
    2. So scary mine is sep 2013

      Delete
  17. Ambals,

    Have the spillovers from other categories been applied to EB2 India already? Do you think there is a significant effect of EB1c over consumption of Big Companies on EB2 India?
    How does EB1C effect EB2 in general? Does EB1C has the feasibility to consume the world category in EB1? Is this why the EB2 India is slowing down.

    From the links you provided and noticed that EB1C india consumption hasn't changed since 2014 which is nearly ~12000 yearly. If EB1C is not the major factor for down paced EB2, then what else can cause this?

    ReplyDelete
  18. Hi
    I predicted this in my comments a few months back when the ambals posted their last blog. The total porting for EB3 to EB2 is around 5k or so. If you see the EB3 allocation for FY-15', around 7K visas were allocated. Similarly , around 7K were allocated to EB2. There is no spillover for EB3 as EB2 is backlogged. Hence, the 7k for EB3 is only possible if we had around 5k or so porters. So even the porting demand was not that bad. I expected around 7k or so and it came out lower. My PD is Jun-09 eb2 and the prison sentence continues..
    Its very unfair when you see countries like S Korea, Germany and others sending a larger % of their population here in skilled visas yet for India, we are being penalized with this country cap. If an India is showing year after year that he has a job and someone is paying him/her good money for his skills what the heck does country cap achieve. I don't get it. Its all politics.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hello,
    My priority date is 17-Sep-2007 in EB3. When can I expect my PD to become current? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Hello My PD is Dec, 2009, No EAD. I missed the boat in 2012 ... .. Do you I can atleast apply EAD in 2016?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. may be ( may be ) in 2018

      Delete
  21. Guys, I am 32 years old and my priority date is July 2015 EB2I, how long do I have to wait to get either EAD or GC? I am just trying to know so that I can plan accordingly, I do not want to spend 20 years of my life in the line. I will very well go back to India if that is the case. Please help!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EB2I movement totally depends on spillover from EB1 and EB2ROW and EB3 to EB2 upgrades. No or Low SO means dates will move barely. That's happened last year. EB2I got around 7.2K visas and 6K-7K porters took the whole share. Same thing is happening this year too. If this trend continues, I don't expect dates will move past 2010 in another 5-6 years. Another Democrat in WH means nothing is going to change for another 4-8 years and conditions would be getting worst for EB2I in future.

      Delete
    2. 2015 July will get EAD in 2037-2040.

      Now upto you to decide.

      Delete
    3. I am 35. Started my GC process in 2009 and have PD as June 2009. Still waiting since 7 yrs. You will be 40+ waiting in line.

      Delete
  22. Hi,

    My PD is 08-Jan-2008 (EB2-India). Filed I-485 on 1/26/2016. Got my EAD in Mar-2016. How long do I need to wait to get the Green Card in hand? Do you foresee Final Action date getting retrogressed again in the near future? Appreciate your insight on this.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  23. Thank you so much for the informative post.

    ReplyDelete
  24. I just checked inventry data to see porting for last 3-4 years. it's around 5K-8K. So far EB-3 is current upto July 2007 only. So as dates move on after July 2007 for EB-3 (years passes) this number will surely increase every year.

    We can not blame people who port since everyone likes to come out from this mess.

    Also USCIS know about EB-1C.

    Easy solution, I see, is USCIS should start using the uncaptured green card 250000 (Since 1990). If not all at a time then atleast 25000 every year. Otherwise every month we will see two reasons (1) dramatic change in rest of world demand and (2) dramatic change in porting.
    seems gloomy but I think that is the fact.

    ReplyDelete
  25. India got 136551 green card from 2008 to 2015 but it seems inventory data does not show propotionate reduction in EB-3 and EB-2 catefory. Not sure why? If so it seems dates are no moving anywhere in future.

    ReplyDelete
  26. My PD is September 21, 2010. Is there any chance of getting an EAD within the next 12 months? Would appreciate any pointers.

    Great blog. You are atleast providing some direction on where things are heading. Cant blame USCIS or US governoment as it is their land and their laws but the least they can provide is a tentative timeline about when things can move. Atleast it helps people like me who are stuck in same job for years to look around and refile GC without worrying about missing the boat when dates become current when waiting on filing a new labor app.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is true that it is their land and their rule. But when you contribute in economy for 10-12 years, pay taxes, have clean record then I think you can surely raise your concerns in right manner. No reason to keep law profile all life.
      There are many ways to take care of this issue, but someone needs to at least look into it.
      Even after 10-12 years, having master degree, good attitude, license or certificate in that field, knowledge, enthusiasm to put efforts, capability and skill to invest in business if someone has to think million times to take step (after 10-12 years) then system really needs fair amount of revision.
      I know few people around me who took chance to change their job and could not file 485 and still are waiting for that moment and they are here for 13 years. I am not sure how this can be justified anyway.
      Not starting here any fight but these are facts and I am also hoping for some positive outcome and waiting for someone to initiate to improve the system.

      Delete
  27. My pd june 2006 eb3 india. Please let me know when it would be current.

    ReplyDelete
  28. My pd june 2006 eb3 india. Please let me know when it would be current

    ReplyDelete
  29. My PD 2nd Dec 2008. Any chances to get GC this year ?

    ReplyDelete
  30. My priority date us 2013 Jan , can u please estimate gc application filling date(EAD).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think before 2013 Jan, there would be around 80k to 100k EB2I applicants (including existing 21K pending 485 cases) waiting to file the 485 when PD becomes current (Not including EB3 porting cases, add another 20K-30K). The way its going from last 2 years where EB2I gets 4k-5k spillover only, estimate would be around 15-20 years from 2016 atleast unless I140EAD rule becomes law with no string attached.

      Delete
  31. @shakthi: should be current next month for sure.

    ReplyDelete
  32. My priority date us 2012 Nov , can u please estimate gc application filling date(EAD)?

    ReplyDelete
  33. My priority date is june 2009. What is the probability of getting a greencard.

    ReplyDelete
  34. If you are in rush,you can raise SR so that i will be current for you over this weekend.

    Good luck.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Hi Ambals,

    Could you do similar brief analysis for EB3 India. What is your best case scenario and what is the worst case scenario.

    Your inputs will be highly appreciated.





    ReplyDelete
  36. Hi
    My pd august 2006 eb3 india. Please let me know any chance for this year.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Hi
    My pd august 2006 eb3 india. Please let me know any chance for this year.

    ReplyDelete
  38. PD - Best possible, worst possible ( years taken )
    ----------------------------------------------
    2009 - 2016, 2017 ( 7-8 years)
    2010 - 2018, 2019 ( 8-9 years)
    2011 - 2020, 2022 ( 9 - 11 years)
    2012 - 2024, 2026 ( 12 - 14 years)
    2013 - 2027, 2030 ( 15- 17 years)

    ReplyDelete
  39. This country's immigration system is not good, no one knows which scenarios they do move the dates and they do current. Better forget about GC or EAD's. Why don't they implement immigration system like in UK/Australia. or simply they should say, work as long as you want, but we will not give citizenship like in Arab countries..

    ReplyDelete
  40. Demand for EB1 visa numbers almost doubled between February and March 2016. As a result, there may be fewer excess numbers to spill down to the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category.

    I am not sure how long this EB1C misuse is going to drag every one else down. EB2 should probably have a porting capability to EB1. This may not solve the problem and make it even worse. But I can at-least live with the fact that I am given the same rights as an MNC QA manager. I am not jealous of eb1c folks. But I seriously believe all EB2 folks are getting injustice in every aspect.

    I used to have a positive hope and energy when the number of visas issued for EB2 india are in the range of 15000-23000. Now they are beginning to drop to bare minimum. Last year only ~7500 visas were approved for EB2 India and 5k seem to be from porting as per the comments above from other people. So technically, EB2 India is gaining nothing from spillovers. If this is the pace, mark my words gentlemen, we are going to wait and comment in this blog about immigration politics forever.

    And seriously guys, I don't think we can fight against this because as an immigrant, we don't have any say or rights. Every now and then I see folks trying to send letters to congress about change of law. But seriously, has this ever worked out in our favor?

    I see people in EB3 and EB2 coming here and asking about their priority dates ever going to become current in the future. You guys remind me of myself. I wish you all the luck because we need lots of it.

    Sorry if I brought you guys some gloomy environment. I don't mean that and we can still live happily without our eads/gcs. But y'all should prepare for a LONG WAIT. I have been doing this since I came here in 2006 Jan.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Have hope! Hope is a good thing, May be the best of things and no good thing ever dies.

      Delete
    2. Hari ommmmm

      Delete
    3. Can I test your patience and ask you say Hari ommm again after looking at the new visa bulletin?

      Delete
  41. My PD is June 2013 EB2-I.
    When will get my GC ?

    Is it going to be :-
    2013 - 2027, 2030 ( 15- 17 years)


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don't think so, because your kids should be able to sponsor you by that time.

      Delete
  42. There should be some way for EB2 folks to move to EB1?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why not? If a 5 year pending eb3 case can upgrade to eb2. Why can't a pending eb2 case, with an education qualification like MS, and an extra 8 year wait for priority date can't be eligible for any upgrade?

      Delete
  43. Hai ,My priority date is 19th November 2006 (EB3 India).Could you please tell me when it vl b current.
    Thank u

    ReplyDelete
  44. Listen Guys,
    We have a pending lawsuit being fought by many very excellent lawyers.
    Very very soon the filing date will move to 2011 OR beyond.
    Have hope ......

    :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What is the status of the lawsuit ? When result will come ?

      Delete
    2. the result will be out when they will make enough money out of extension fee.

      Delete
    3. Lawsuit is a moneymaker and publicity for the lawyers. USCIS isn't going to do a damn thing. Now we are already back to 2004.

      Delete
  45. View Bulletin for June 2016 is out and EB2 India is retrogressed to 01OCT04. Absolutely disappointing news.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Can any one bring some insights into the projection over next couple of months? like EB2 July 2016, August 2016?

      Delete
  46. Horrible.this is so disappointing and frustrating.. My priority data is Oct 09 EB2 not a porter, missed EAD in 2011 when the dates were current and have been waiting since then.

    ReplyDelete
  47. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  48. WOW. USCIS is still sending medical RFEs for 2009 dates. They don't know what are they doing? very disappointing. Now they are saying EB2 I dates are expected to advance slowly during the last three months of the fiscal year, at a pace consistent with that of the India Employment-based Third preference date. There is no difference between EB2I and EB3I.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah .. So much for STEM degrees and genuine work experience. US requires only noble laureates from CTS and Infosys. Eb2 and Eb3 are not qualified enough

      Delete
  49. Does that mean zero spillover applied this year

    ReplyDelete
  50. Lawsuit was a pure publicity stunt to increase twitter follower count, sell books, appear in TV etc.
    It was also intended to put filing date on hold until the long court process is done.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Priority date has retrogressed again :(
    Any thoughts on why this might have happened?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Two things. Porting from EB3. Looks like USCIS is adjudicating a lot of status adjustment applications from Eb3 ported to Eb2, which is the main reason we are back to 2004. Suddenly they might have asked for 1000 visa numbers from DOS and DOS has freaked out.
      The second reason is our friends at the outsourcing companies (the potential noble prize eligible programmers and QA managers) have lined up their EB1 requests which the USCIS approves like Halloween candy.

      Delete
    2. Thanks

      Are we done for this year?

      Delete
    3. Done with what ?
      We will never be done with both
      EB3 porting will continue forever... until EB3 and Eb2 converges which has what happened now. Because spillover from Eb1 first comes to Eb2 (if there are any at all..)
      EB1 abuse will continue until either people behave ethically or Trump hears about it and at the least it can become more news to increase awareness of how it is being abused.
      Sorry for being gloomy but that's the truth and I have been a victim of this like thousand others.

      Delete
  52. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Don't be fooled by law firms. The law firms want this mess to never end and they want the immigration law to have 1000 loopholes. That's economics 101 if you own a immigration law firm. The only way to fix this is we all come together and hire a lobbying firm to fight our cause in DC. That's the only way this can be fixed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't think we can do anything which can change, EB3 ports are not going to stop, EB1 is an easy way to get GC and then they work as consultants.

      Delete
  54. it will not cross 2009 June for years and years to come. May be for 20-30 years.

    Welcome to new reality.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Hi my pd is in Jan 2014 in eb3. Keeping the spirits alive and wondering when I should expect ead...

    ReplyDelete
  56. my mistake. I meant I140 got approved in Jan 2014 in eb3 category

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2050 for sure.

      Delete
    2. haha. so I think even if move it to eb2, it would be again another 15 to 17 years. By the time my kid will be able to sponsor me. Jai HO !

      Delete
    3. LOL.So many people are banking on kids sponsoring parents GC, and by that time even that will be so severely backlogged and I wonder what is USCIS planning for that.

      Delete
    4. https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-family/green-card-immediate-relative-us-citizen

      Delete
  57. Hi,
    My EB2 PD is Mar,2009.
    Can I file for 485? In other words, although as per visa bulletin the EB2I dates have moved back to 2004, the application date for EB2I is still 01JUL09. So am I eligible to file 485?
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes you can file I-485.

      Delete
    2. No. You can't file I-485. USCIS will update which chart should be used to start I-485 process in couple of days @ 'https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo'.
      I guess, it should be 'Final Action Dates' chart as they never used other useless chart. USCIS will start moving dates from Oct 2016 bulletin. I think March 2009 dates would be current next year around Jan-Feb 2017.

      Delete
  58. Hello Friends,

    Could you please sign this petition and share with all your friends. We need to reach 5000 counts as soon as we can.

    Thanks.

    https://www.change.org/p/reduce-the-waiting-time-on-india-immigration-eb2-and-eb3-categories?tk=uUNn03TEodlT8TZW8quzH6btso6JudLXtt9OA5XM_rc&utm_source=petition_update&utm_medium=email

    ReplyDelete
  59. My new prediction for EB-2
    PD Jan to March 2009 # GC very likely in 2017
    PD Apr to June 09 # GC very likely in 2018
    PD July 09 to Dec 09 # GC mostly in 2019 and 2020.

    Prediction based on 7000 EB3 upgardes each year , 12000 EB1C Desi filings and ROW demand growth ( has anyone looked at South Korea. Its like 6k to 7k / year)

    All others with 2010 PD and beyond, you will be in the prison for next 10 years of your life at minimum. Try to find a firm where you take a pay cut, go to India for a year and come back in EB1C for a reduced salary. You will get GC but loose 100k of lost salary for 2 year which I think is worth it.

    ReplyDelete
  60. Updated:-

    PD - Best possible, worst possible ( years taken )
    ----------------------------------------------
    2009 - 2016, 2018 ( 7-9 years)
    2010 - 2020, 2024 ( 10-14 years)
    2011 - 2025, 2030 ( 14 - 19 years)
    2012 - 2031, 2050 ( 19 - 38 years)
    2013 - 2051, 2070 ( 38 - 57 years)
    2014 - May not see the dates

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Welcome to the new reality..............

      Delete
  61. For India EB2 the dates retrogressed in June bulletin. is this normal or expected? How much impact does June 2016 visa bulletin have Ambals prediction above?

    ReplyDelete
  62. The lawsuit was thrown out of the door too, wow I feel like the rest of us EB2 will take another 5-6 years from today to move to 2011, provided we get 12k visa's a year.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Looks like even EB1 is about to get retrogressed.
    http://www.murthy.com/2016/05/19/june-visa-bulletin-explanations-for-retrogression/


    Thanks to the noble prize winning Multinational managers.When will the USCIS learn?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They will never even talk about this sickening truth. As Im typing, I am sitting next to an mnc manager who came on EB1C in 2015.

      Delete
  64. Updated:-

    PD - Best possible, worst possible ( years taken )
    ----------------------------------------------
    2009 - 2016, 2018 ( 7-9 years)
    2010 - 2020, 2024 ( 10-14 years)
    2011 - 2025, 2030 ( 14 - 19 years)
    2012 - 2031, 2050 ( 19 - 38 years)
    2013 - 2051, 2070 ( 38 - 57 years)
    2014 - May not see the dates in their life time

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. hahaha...your estimated dates are out of sync from reality. Cut off dates will be introduced for EB1-India and china in Aug or Sept visa bulletin. Due to very high demand cut off dates will be added for EB2 ROW too. EB3-I to EB2-I porting in last 3 months is historical high. EB2-I is doomed. This year EB2-I is gonna get max of 4K-5K and porting is more than double of these number this year. There are almost 15k-20K pending cases before Dec 2009. Demand is going to explode in coming years in EB1 and EB2 ROW. Based on above predictions, it will take at least 6-10 years to clear 2009 cases only. 2010 and onward GOD KNOWS :(

      http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2016/05/18/visa-bulletin-predictions-updates-charles-oppenheim-may-18-2016/?utm_source=Capitol+Immigration+Law+Group+Newsletter&utm_campaign=1721b76590-Weekly_Newsletter_May_19_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1074141ca5-1721b76590-390836705&mc_cid=1721b76590&mc_eid=6beb336522

      Delete
  65. That's correct.

    it will take at least 6-10 years to clear 2009 cases only. 2010 and onward GOD KNOWS :(

    However most of them will get GC via their sons/daughters.
    Good news:-
    It will be an approx 15-20 years of wait max :)

    ReplyDelete
  66. During Oct-2015 visagate, I did medical test for me and my family. Will those reports be of use in future ?

    So much of pain for vaccination and money paid.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. medical test are valid only for a year.

      Delete
  67. I am doing the same every year as USCIS is asking for medical via RFE every year.
    I am eb2-I 2009, having EAD.

    ReplyDelete
  68. New inventory of I-485 was just released according to the inventory between Oct 2015 and April 2016, 228 more cases were added to EB2, I mean the total number in inventory instead of going down went up by 228!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. IMO that could mean that they are awaiting to apply spill over ( if any left) and only gave out 2400 of the allocated visa so far to India EB2.

      Delete
  69. Yes I think you are right, they will start applying the spill overs most likely from August bulletin onward. Anyone has any idea how bad the spill over numbers will be for this year?

    ReplyDelete
  70. None this year - Its consumed by respective category.

    ReplyDelete
  71. I don't think there will be any spill over as EB1 going to have cut off date.

    ReplyDelete
  72. Take a print out and put it in your desk :-


    PD - Best possible, worst possible ( years taken )
    ----------------------------------------------
    2009 - 2016, 2018 ( 7-9 years)
    2010 - 2020, 2024 ( 10-14 years)
    2011 - 2025, 2030 ( 14 - 19 years)
    2012 - 2031, 2050 ( 19 - 38 years) ( Get GC via kids)
    2013 - 2051, 2070 ( 38 - 57 years) ( Get GC via kids)
    2014 - May not see the dates in their life time
    ( Get GC via kids)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good information. BTW how did you come with these numbers?

      Delete
    2. :)


      I am making a kid today :)

      Delete
  73. Ambala, Why are you not posting with new visa bulletin. Did you lose hope too.?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ambala - yes, I did :(

      Delete
    2. no reason to post a blog if numbers didnt change. ambala is saving some time it looks like.

      Delete
  74. Please sing and share this guys.

    https://www.change.org/p/reduce-the-waiting-time-on-india-immigration-eb2-and-eb3-categories

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Signed. Guys please support this as well with full speed.

      Delete
  75. Social Security return through tantalization agreement. Please vote.
    ---------------------------------------------------
    https://www.change.org/p/sign-bilateral-totalisation-agreement-bta-with-us

    ReplyDelete
  76. Hello Ambalas,

    Visa bulletin for July 2016 is out. Could you please provide your analysis and future predictions.

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Better check with a parrot

      Delete
    2. EB2-I moved from Oct 2004 to Nov 2004. What a joke! As per 485 inventory only 8 cases are pending in Oct 2004. It means No spill over this year from EB1 or EB2 ROW this year. USCIS is predicting dates may move up to Jan 2005 by the Sept visa bulletin means USCIS has already issued country limit 2800 visas to EB2-I this year. There were around 4000 cases before Jan 2009 PDs were pending for EB2I in Oct 2015 inventory data and now as per latest inventory there are 3200 cases are pending before Jan 2009 PDs. So again like 2015 FY, this year almost all available EB2I visas went to porters. If this trends continue, it will take couple of years to reach to 2009 dates.

      Delete
    3. PD - Best possible, worst possible ( years taken )
      ----------------------------------------------
      2009 - 2016, 2018 ( 7-9 years)
      2010 - 2020, 2024 ( 10-14 years)
      2011 - 2025, 2030 ( 14 - 19 years)
      2012 - 2031, 2050 ( 19 - 38 years) ( Get GC via kids)
      2013 - 2051, 2070 ( 38 - 57 years) ( Get GC via kids)
      2014 - May not see the dates in their life time
      ( Get GC via kids)

      Delete
  77. What predictions? Are you looking for EB1C slowing down?

    ReplyDelete
  78. i second that , to be honest the only way to get GC is to get in EB1 queue , you are in self denial if you are still dreaming about getting GC via EB3 and EB2 if your priority date > early 2009.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi, Can you please clarify the "early 2009"? My PD is April 2009. Is it early 2009? Do I have any chances of getting GC in FY2017?

      Thank You

      Delete
  79. Any predictions on proposed regulation for priority date retention after employer change

    ReplyDelete
  80. Any one knows how to get into EB1 queue? What is needed to move from EB2 to EB1?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. what an innocent question.

      Delete
  81. If uscis cannot give residency to people in their life time they should not collect any more petitions rather than scamming people with priority dates and keeping their employees paid. Anyone filing for gc from 2015 or 2016 is just filling up uscis coffers and they will not get gc in their life time or at rear end of life and uncessarily wasting money. It would be better if there is ead available and even that's an mirage. I don't mean to spread negativity but uscis is proving to be scam organization thriving on finance and emotions of several hard working people.

    ReplyDelete
  82. The best chance of moving ahead from the Country backlogs is if Congress passes bills/laws addressing this issue. Here is the link for the "H.R. 213: Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act of 2015". This bill already passed House earlier but has not passed senate. It is sponsored by Jason Chaffetz (Republican).

    https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/114/hr213

    I would urge all people affected by EB backlogs to write to Congressman Chaffetz urging him to have his bill passed and signed by President Obama into law. If this happens, everyone will get their GC's in the next 2-3 years for sure.

    Here is the way to contact the congressman by email:
    https://chaffetz.house.gov/contact/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In addition to this, please sign the below petition. We need 625 more signs. Please sign and promote.

      https://www.change.org/p/reduce-the-waiting-time-on-india-immigration-eb2-and-eb3-categories

      Delete
  83. Hello, I have a priority Date of July 2006 for EB2 Category (Based on a prior EB3 filing). Are there any chances of getting that date in October Visa Bulletin or will I be stuck for 1 more year. Based on the latest Demand Data (Pending 485 inventory), there are only 600 applications till July 2006. I am not sure why the dates are pushed back, since there should still be pending numbers from 2016 year. Any thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 600 are after adjusting all porters like you and may have already consumed the EB2 quota for india i.e. 2800

      Delete
    2. If you have priority date in July 2006, how you did not get your GC till now?

      Delete
    3. I had applied for a eb3 to eb2 porting recently, hence I am still waiting..

      Delete
    4. You should get it in next few months. Max by end of this year for sure.

      Delete
  84. What an innocent question?

    ReplyDelete
  85. PD - Best possible, worst possible ( years taken )
    ----------------------------------------------
    2009 - 2016, 2018 ( 7-9 years)
    2010 - 2020, 2024 ( 10-14 years)
    2011 - 2025, 2030 ( 14 - 19 years)
    2012 - 2031, 2050 ( 19 - 38 years) ( Get GC via kids)
    2013 - 2051, 2070 ( 38 - 57 years) ( Get GC via kids)
    2014 - May not see the dates in their life time
    ( Get GC via kids)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What? Are you crazy?

      Delete
    2. Yes, better come to the reality.
      It may be worse than what has been predicted above !!!
      Because EB2-I is getting ZERO count of visa every year.

      Delete
    3. This is based on the assumptions:-
      1. EB2-I will get only 180 visa every year after all porter consumptions
      2. There will be only 2000-3000 spill over every year ( which will be mostly consumed by porters)
      3. The current demand of eb3-i and eb2-i remains the same

      most likely :-
      #2 will get worse
      #3 also will get worse

      Then the prediction above will look really bad. Add another 5-6 years of extra wait time to each year.

      Delete
    4. Stop porting...

      Delete
  86. Priority Date Jun-2010, when can we apply for EAD?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2020 - 2024

      Delete
    2. Please refer to 485 inventory. Don't worry about the predictions. As you can guess most of these are made out by guess work born with no facts. That is why I can't give you the year just like Ambal. Two things affect your wait line to move quicker: EB3-EB2 Porting, EB1C applications. Eb1c is a sink hole in the past 2-3 years which seem to conusme all EB1 leftovers. Approvals of 23,000 green cards to EB2 India category is long gone my friend. People still make a guess work based on these old analysis. But based on this velocity, 2020 seems possible for your green card. I'm not sure if any lawmakers can change our lives at this point my friend. Look at the bright side, you will get a green card long before me. Mine is December 2010 :)

      Delete
    3. Good information. Any prediction for July 30, 2009 priority date in EB2 category.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous@ June 20, 2016 at 12:36 PM. You are probably the first person in this blog to take your case and spin it positively for another.
      You are absolutely right. Any 20K GC for EB2 will be a dream. It will happen one day when TCS/Infosys completes exporting all their L1 managers and there is no one left.

      Delete
    5. earliest 2020

      Delete
  87. Hopefully next year

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. June 20, 2016 should be current in 2018 or 2019

      Delete
  88. AILA reports that State Department will impose cut-off of February 1, 2010 for EB-1 for China and India in the August 2016 Visa Bulletin. Beginning from October 2016, the cut-off date will be removed for China and India. There will be no EB-1 cut-off date for countries other than India and China in August. USCIS has been reporting that EB-1C has surged huge for these countries.

    ReplyDelete
  89. Cognizant filed 7000 EB1 this year for their so called managers. Met one of their very excited EB1 applicant, a QA manager with 69k salary. There is no way to stop offshore companies to misuse EB1 or in other way they are taking full advantage of loop holes in immigration policies.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Its just not these companies to be blamed. Its the freakin lawyers who do anything for money.
      These companies don't only make unethical decisions by using this loop hole, but slow down the entire process for others by bringing their who family in to EB1. Instead of the principal applicant, they typically take up three to four visas for the entire family. Nearly 60% of the visas goes to dependents.
      This is different compared to Eb2/Eb3 where most people stay here for long and their kids are born here and don't take up as much as EB1.
      SO yeah thanks to all the screwball lawyers and QA managers.

      Delete
  90. Since advice to all sufferers. The immigration limbo will stay on forever. Let's not be optimistic; neither the Democrats nor the Republicans can fix this broken system. They are only concerned about illegal immigrants.

    For those on H1-B and having full-time jobs, sit as it and for those consultants, try to get a full-time job if you are not happy and scared to go for stamping. The dates will move at a snail's pace for EB2/EB3 I so even if a new PERM takes time, it is worth it.

    Also I am glad that EB1 for India/China for August will be retrograded to 2010. Time to wake up for all the knuckleheads at USCIS and DHS

    ReplyDelete
  91. The table given above is inaccurate, the year 2019 is missing....


    2009 - 2016, 2018 ( 7-9 years)
    2010 - 2020, 2024 ( 10-14 years)
    2011 - 2025, 2030 ( 14 - 19 years)
    2012 - 2031, 2050 ( 19 - 38 years) ( Get GC via kids)
    2013 - 2051, 2070 ( 38 - 57 years) ( Get GC via kids)
    2014 - May not see the dates in their life time

    ReplyDelete
  92. Hello Ambals,
    I have been following your blog since 2012. I was under EB3 with a PD of May 2011 but recently applied for EB1-A and got my GC this week.
    Just wanted to let the group know that it's not impossible to get into the EB1-A category even if you don't have an Oscar or Nobel Peace price. I for sure didn't have one. I just got a good set of lawyers and applied with the contribution and expertise in my field - as I am sure most of you all are also contributing. Just wanted to let you know and good luck,
    _coron

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. hi Coron,
      Would appreciate if you could share more details.

      Delete
    2. can you post layer info here , so other can leverages

      Delete
    3. Not sure if this info would help - My company lawyers did almost all the work. This is what I did -
      After seeing my PD and EB3 status I went to the lawyers to see if I can port over to EB2. The lawyers reviewed my case, looked at my experience, and said that I was eligible for EB1-A. I was not expecting this, but thought why not, lets give it a try.
      They requested me to gather documents from my employer, my managers and my university professors as I had done my MS from here, with a template that they had set up.
      This included my performance, promotions, any awards that I got from my company and teams, etc.. I think the lawyers custom fit the documents for the individuals and their field of work. I am sure the key here was the effort gone into getting the paperwork done by the lawyers. I thought I would have to go for an interview later on, but didn't have to, just got the GC in the mail. Don't know if that helped or not, but that's the quick and easy summary.

      Delete
    4. Hi Coron,
      Thanks for the helpful information. Could you also please tell us your field of work (e.g. Computers/Pure Sciences/Biotech) and if you have published research articles in journals.

      Appreciate your help.

      Delete
    5. Hey there,
      My background is in computer graphics - not pure research, though I believe the lawyers reviewed my case for EB1-B, but said that EB-1 A was stronger. I haven't published any research articles in journals.
      _coron

      Delete
    6. Can you please PM me your lawyer's details at mc82.in@gmail.com. Thanks

      Delete
    7. Hi Coron,
      Can u please send me ur lawyer detail/contact. My email id is cpatolia@gmail.com

      Delete
    8. Hi Coron,

      Thanks for your detailed reply to my question (July 4, 3:48 pm) regarding your background!

      I have a similar background as yours (Computers - Data Analytics). We have been waiting for a GC for a very, very long time and your feedback gives me a glimmer of hope that the nightmare might be over soon.

      Please do send me the details of your law firm.

      My email is gcwait2016@gmail.com.

      Many thanks again!


      Delete
    9. Hi Coron,
      Could you please provide your lawyer details. I would like my case to be reviewed and see if I can jump in EB1, have been waiting for a while now in EB2

      Delete
    10. Replied to the queries

      Delete
    11. Hi Coron,
      Please provide details, can you post it here, Lots of us will get benefit of this information.

      Delete
  93. The U.S. Department of State (DOS) Visa Control and Reporting Division Chief, Charles Oppenheim, has confirmed that a cutoff date will be established in the employment-based, first preference (EB1) category in the August 2016 Visa Bulletin. The cutoff date will only apply to India and China, and is expected to be pushed back to January 1, 2010. This category then will return to being current for all countries on October 1, 2016, which will be the first day of fiscal year 2017.

    ReplyDelete
  94. http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/immigration/278805-how-immigration-laws-harm-skilled-immigrants-and-americans

    USCIS and our desk lawyers are a bunch of racist good for nothing,,,,they want these long lines to never end.

    ReplyDelete
  95. happy 4th july to all.
    dream to be an american...........

    ReplyDelete
  96. hi Coron,

    Thank you for your reply, I am in the similar situation, would like to know the lawyer you engaged is a company lawyer or an outside lawyer. Can we know his/her details. You could email me the info. saf.zhs@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  97. hi Coron,

    Would you be able to PM me your lawyer's details.

    My email id is d4dhiraj@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  98. Hi Coron, Appreciate you sharing your case, can you please email (raj.bhadur@gmail.com) your lawyer details. I have been stuck waiting for my turn in EB2 2009, missed the boat of getting atleast an EAD as my company was going through acquisition when dates were current for Nov 2009. Thanks Raj!

    ReplyDelete
  99. Hi Coron,

    Plz open a shop and provide the details with a fee.
    No shortage of customers !!!!

    ReplyDelete
  100. Hi Coron

    Congratulations !!! I would love to see what your lawyer have to say on my case too. Please share details to my id ps.onnathi@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  101. Hi Coron,
    Please send the law firm details so that i can apply. My pd is EB-3 Aug 06

    ReplyDelete
  102. This is crazy!

    Coron's one stop solution will NOT fit everyone's case(which you all think, yes we already know that)

    Most of EB3s and 2s are plain consultants, the numbers are roughly 85%, the brainy remainders who take up research based high tech projects don't need a Green Card to survive, brain power attracts the best companies/countries at their foot steps.

    Quit taking these never ending shortcuts and focus on self education to be the best that you can be.

    Volunteer, Serve, live life..

    ReplyDelete
  103. My email is Shreehari.pillai@gmail.com. Can you please send me Lawyer details ?

    ReplyDelete