Estimated 140,300 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2015 and 30 September 2016 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.
Last few years EB2 India has received good amount of spill overs. Unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case). But, last year the number for EB2 India was relative less compares to the previous years.
The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:
FY 2015 - 7,235
FY 2014 - 23,527
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806
The number of visas available through spillovers on the top of the regular 2,809 visas available and number of applicants porting from EB3 India to EB2 India -- are the two factors that will decide the date movement at the end of every fiscal year. Let us see different scenarios for Sept 2016 visa bulletin EB2 India date.
Best Case Scenario:
The average over the last few years about 13,000. Assuming that number and assuming 4000 porting. Then, according to numbers in Jan 2016 I-485 pending inventory, the date will clear the inventory and move to 01 AUG 09.
Worst Case Scenario:
If there are only 7000 available visas and if there is 2500 porting between Jan and Aug, then, according to numbers in Jan 2016 I-485 pending inventory, the date will move to 01 JAN 09.
Most Likely Scenario:
According to me, the most likely scenario is 01 APR 09 -- assuming about 8,000 visas available and about 2000 porting between Jan and Aug.
I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory
EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html
Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf