Tuesday, July 8, 2014

August 2014 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


August 2014 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India moved from 01 SEP 08 to 22 JAN 09 and EB2 China from 22 JUL 09 to 08 OCT 09. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News !!! EB2 India and EB2 China keeps moving forward.

If you are becoming current in August and if you are going to file I-485, please make sure to contact your immigration lawyer now and get the relevant documents.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India from 01 NOV 03 to 08 NOV 03 and EB3 Philippines from 01 JAN 09 to 01 JUN 10 and EB3 China from 01 OCT 06 to 01 NOV 08 and all other countries it stays at 01 APR 11.

Good news here is EB3 India date has moved 1 week, EB3 Philippines date has moved more than a year and EB3 China has also move more than an year..

I-485 Pending inventory:

Current I-485 inventory shows data till 1 APR 2014. For EB2 India, there are 31,187 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. For EB3 India, it is 30,992 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. 

The new inventory should come sometime this month. We will keep you posted on that.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India - I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India,

My calculation says, it will move to 01 MAR 09 in Sept 2014 Visa Bulletin. There are few law firms that say, it might move as much as 01 SEP 09. We have to wait and watch. Of-course, more the merrier.

Then, the next question is what might happen after that.

Last year the dates for EB2 India was like this:
Jul 2013 -- 01SEP04
Aug 2013 -- 01JAN08
Sep 2013 -- 15JUN08
Oct 2013 -- 15JUN08
Nov 2013 -- 15JUN08
Dec 2013 -- 15NOV04

I expect pretty much the same. The dates will move till Sept VB. Then, stay put for one month or two months. Then, retrogress back. I think it will retrogress again to say, 15 DEC 04 in November 2014 Visa Bulletin. It totally depends on what strategy DOS wants to follow this time.

Links:

You can see the official August 2014 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-august-2014.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

July 2014 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


July 2014 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India is 01 SEP 08 and EB2 China is 22 JUL 09. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News !!! EB2 India dates have moved finally. Also, EB2 China keeps moving forward, two months this time.

If you are becoming current in July and if you are going to file I-485, please make sure to contact your immigration lawyer now and get the relevant documents. If you file on July 1, 2014, you are increasing your chances of getting GC this year.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 01 NOV 03 and EB3 Philippines is 01 JAN 09 and EB3 China is 01 OCT 06 and all other countries is 01 APR 11.

Good news here is EB3 India date has moved 2 weeks and EB3 Philippines date has moved one year

No movement for Others. 

Apparently, there is lot of "downgrade" from EB2 China to EB3 China.

I-485 Pending inventory:

Current I-485 inventory shows data till 1 APR 2014. For EB2 India, there are 31,187 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. For EB3 India, it is 30,992 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. 

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India - I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India,

My calculation says, it will move to 01 MAR 09 by Sept 2014 Visa Bulletin. There are few law firms that say, it might move as much as 01 SEP 09. We have to wait and watch. Of-course, more the merrier.

Then, the next question is what might happen after that.

Last year the dates for EB2 India was like this:
Jul 2013 -- 01SEP04
Aug 2013 -- 01JAN08
Sep 2013 -- 15JUN08
Oct 2013 -- 15JUN08
Nov 2013 -- 15JUN08

Dec 2013 -- 15NOV04

I expect pretty much the same. The dates will move till Sept VB. Then, stay put for one month or two months. Then, retrogress back. I think it will retrogress again to say, 15 DEC 04 in November 2014 Visa Bulletin. It totally depends on what strategy DOS wants to follow this time.


Links:

You can see the official July 2014 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-july-2014.html 

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

June 2014 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


June 2014 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India is 15 NOV 04 and EB2 China is 22 MAY 09. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

The good news is EB2 China keeps moving forward, more than a month this time.

No movement for EB2 India. From the recent news from various lawfirm websites, the dates for EB2 India will likely move only in August 2014 Visa Bulletin. They also mention that it might move to Jan 1, 2008. One of them is here -- http://www.murthy.com/2014/05/01/official-predictions-on-priority-date-movement-for-fy14/

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:


EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 15 OCT 03 and EB3 Philippines is 01 JAN 08 and EB3 China is 01 OCT 06 and all other countries is 01 APR 11.

Good news here is EB3 India date has moved 2 weeks and EB3 Philippines date has moved 2 months.

EB3 China has retrogressed 6 years. Apparently, there is lot of "downgrade" from EB2 China to EB3 China.

Visa Bulletin says, there has been sudden surge of EB3 applicants. That is why the dates for Mexico, China and Worldwide has been retrogressed.


I-485 Pending inventory:

New I-485 inventory was released in Jan 2014. For EB2 India, there are 31,242 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. For EB3 India, it is 32,066 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. 

There should be another update on the inventory data. We will keep you posted once it comes out.


Links:

You can see the official May 2014 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-may-2014.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

What to expect - FY 2014 EB2 India Priority Date Movement and Analysis


Estimated 150,000 Green Cards are expected to be given this year under Employment Based Green Card category.

Last few years EB2 India has received good amount of spill overs. Unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case).

The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

Average of the above numbers is 17,632. Last year number is 17,193.

First question is, when will the dates start moving again ?
Typically, the movement for EB2 India is expected from June visa bulletin as it is the start of the last 4 months in the fiscal year, where spillovers can be applied. But, last year, DOS moved the dates only in August Visa Bulletin. So, depending on which strategy they use, the EB2 India dates can start moving as early as June 2014 Visa Bulletin or as late as August 2014 Visa Bulletin.

Next question will be, how much will it move ?
Again, depending on the DOS strategy, whenever they move, they can move all at once or in stages every visa bulletin -- which, I think can be between 01 JAN 08 (to move in stages) and as late as 01 OCT 09.

Next question will be, What are the scenarios for Sept 2014 visa bulletin EB2 India date ?
Best Case Scenario:
The best number in the previous few years is 23,997. Assuming that number and assuming very less porting that leaves about 23,000 visas. Then, according to numbers in Jan 2014 I-485 pending inventory, the date will move to 01 OCT 09.
Worst Case Scenario:
The least number in the previous few years is 10,106. Assuming that number and assuming there is lot of porting that leaves only 6000 visas. Then, according to numbers in Jan 2014 I-485 pending inventory, the date will move to 15 AUG 08.
Most Likely Scenario:
According to me, the most likely scenario is 01 MAR 09 -- assuming about 16,000 visas available and 2400 porting and few pending for more time due to RFE and other scenarios.

Data Sources:
I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

Annual Limits and Spill Over rule for FY 2014 --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

Thursday, April 10, 2014

FY 2015 H1b Update



USCIS news release today says, it has received 172,500 H1-B applications during the filing period that began on 1 April 2014 for the FY 2015.

USCIS had already announced on April 7, 2014 that it had received enough applications to meet the 65,000 general cap and 20,000 advance degree cap.

Today's release also confirms that, USCIS has completed the computer generated random selection process to decide on the accepted applicants under the cap.

Complete news release form USCIS website - http://www.uscis.gov/news/uscis-reaches-fy-2015-h-1b-cap-0

Wednesday, April 9, 2014

May 2014 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


May 2014 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India is 15 NOV 04 and EB2 China is 15 APR 09. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

The good news is EB2 China keeps moving forward, more than a month this time.

As expected no movement for EB2 India. I think EB2 India dates is going to stay the same till June 2014 Visa Bulletin. It might start moving big from July 2014.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:



EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 01 OCT 03 and EB3 Philippines is 01 NOV 07 and all other countries is 01 OCT 12.

Good news here is EB3 India date has moved 2 weeks and EB3 Philippines date has moved 4.5 months.

It is good to see the EB3 India date moving forward. Hopefully, it will move one week or more every visa bulletin from now on.

I-485 Pending inventory:

New I-485 inventory was released in Jan 2014. For EB2 India, there are 31,242 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. For EB3 India, it is 32,066 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. 

There should be another update on the inventory data. We will keep you posted once it comes out.

Demand Data:

There is no demand data yet corresponding to May 2014 bulletin.

Links:

You can see the official May 2014 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-may-2014.html

You can see the official Demand Data here -http://www.travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Friday, March 14, 2014

Non-Machine Readable Passports should be renewed


If you have not yet seen the news, all the non-Machine Readable Passports (non-MRP) has to be renewed by 25 November 2015.

According to the notice issued by Government of India, International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) has decided to get away with handwritten passports. It says, "All handwritten passports with pasted photos earlier issued by Government of India are considered non-MRP passports. All 20-year validity passports will also fall in this category."

If you have a non-MRP passport it is better to renew it sooner. It says, lot of countries may reject visa and entry into their countries, if you have non-MRP passport.

The news article below says this -- " From November 25, 2015, foreign governments may deny visa or entry to persons travelling with non-MRP passports. The Union government started issuing machine readable passports since 2001 and all new Indian passports are ICAO-compliant MRP passports."

Government of India notice -- http://passportindia.gov.in/AppOnlineProject/pdf/Public_Notice_Machine_Readable_Passports.pdf

News from TheHindu --
http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Tiruchirapalli/nonmachine-readable-passports-to-go-by-november-2015/article5533519.ece