Monday, September 25, 2017

EB2 and EB3 India Visa Bulletin Movements


October 2017 Visa Bulletin was released earlier this month. The first bulletin for FY 2018. The EB2 India dates for getting Green Card stands at 15 SEP 08. The EB3 India date is at 15 OCT 06. [1]

Estimated 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018 -- under Employment Based Green Card category. [2]

In FY 2016, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 3,930 and EB3 India was 4,583. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [3]

According to latest inventory we have, as of August 2017, For EB3 India, there are about 1600 I-485s pending for last 3 months of 2006 and 1879 for Jan to Aug 2007. For EB2 India, there are about 1400 I-485s pending for last 4 months of 2008. [4]

Regarding the filing dates, USCIS has a logic, which we have no visibility to. They can technically open up the Filing dates to latest dates. This will give opportunity to file I-485 and more importantly get the EAD and give the much needed -- less hassle job portability.

Given this, I think EB2 India, for final action dates, will move only at the same pace -- one week to a month per bulletin -- depending on spill over and porting. On the other hand, EB3 India should move much faster. Going by the inventory, and assuming 4000 Green Cards to be given, for the whole year -- till September 2018 visa bullein -- the EB3 India can move to 01 Sep 07. For EB2 India, if there is no porting and assuming 4000 GC to be given, it can move to 01 MAY 09. How much less than that, will depend on porting.

Data Sources:
[1] October 2017 Visa Bulletin --https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-october-2017.html

[2] Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

[3] EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

[4] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/EB_I_485_Pending_Inventory_August17.pdf

Friday, March 10, 2017

EB2 and EB3 India Latest Numbers


April 2017 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. The EB2 India dates for getting Green Card stands at 22 JUN 08. The EB3 India date is at 24 MAR 05.

Estimated 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2016 and 30 September 2017 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.

DOS also released the complete annual report for FY 2016. The EB2 India numbers from there are 3,930 and EB3 India number is 4,583.

Comparing this to the previous years, the number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2016 - 3,930
FY 2015 - 7,235
FY 2014 - 23,527
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

EB2 India receives 2,809 immigrant visas (Green Cards) every year. On the top of it, it receives spill over from EB1, EB4, EB5 and EB2 - ROW. Typically, unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case).

The numbers released confirms what was suspected all along. The spill over to EB2 India has almost vanished -- 3,930 Vs 2,809. Given the fact that, EB3 to EB2 porting is increasing and it consumes almost all of EB2 numbers, explains the very very slow movement of EB2 India number in each visa bulletin. Please note the availability of EB2 India Green Card was 23,527 in FY 2014 and only 3,930 in FY 2016.

Given this, I think EB2 India will move only at the same pace -- couple of weeks to a month per bulletin -- depending on spill over and porting. On the other hand, EB3 India might move little faster once it crosses 31 MAR 05. If the latest inventory we have as of october 2016, has to be believed, there are only 1729 I-485s pending for 2005. Hence, the faster movement expectation.

If this trend continues, the future for EB2 and EB3 India looks very gloomy. Law change is the only way to make it move forward faster.

Data Sources:

I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

April 2017 Visa Bulletin --https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2017/visa-bulletin-for-april-2017.html



Monday, July 18, 2016

Are we in the new phase for EB2 India ?


August Visa Bulletin was released earlier this month. The EB2 India dates for getting Green Card stands at 15 NOV 04. The EB3 India date is at 08 NOV 04. New Cut-off dates are introduced for EB1 China and India and that date is 01 JAN 10.

Estimated 140,300 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2015 and 30 September 2016 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.

The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2015 - 7,235
FY 2014 - 23,527
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

EB2 India receives 2,809 immigrant visas (Green Cards) every year. On the top of it, it receives spill over from EB1, EB4, EB5 and EB2 - ROW. Typically, unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case).

This year, by the very fact that, DOS has established a cut-off for EB1 India and EB1 China, tell us that EB4, EB5 and EB1 will not come to EB2. We also see from I-485 inventory that there is more demand for EB2 from other countries and more porting happening from EB3 India to EB2 India.

Given all this, it makes me wonder, if we are in a new phase for EB2 India. The spillover reducing on one side and porting from EB3 to EB2 increasing on the other side, makes it nearly impossible for the dates to move forward. In theory, all the 18,000+ EB3 India applicants can port to EB2 India. In theory, all available visas for EB2 India can be consumed by porting. In Practice, if this happens, then EB2 India dates can't move much further and, EB3 and EB2 India dates have to move hand-in-hand. Not a good situation, but it might be the reality ! We have to wait and watch to see if it is !


Data Sources:

I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

August Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-august-2016.html


Wednesday, April 13, 2016

What to expect in FY 2016 - EB2 India Priority Date Movement and Analysis


Estimated 140,300 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2015 and 30 September 2016 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.

Last few years EB2 India has received good amount of spill overs. Unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case). But, last year the number for EB2 India was relative less compares to the previous years.

The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2015 - 7,235
FY 2014 - 23,527
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

The number of visas available through spillovers on the top of the regular 2,809 visas available and number of applicants porting from EB3 India to EB2 India -- are the two factors that will decide the date movement at the end of every fiscal year. Let us see different scenarios for Sept 2016 visa bulletin EB2 India date.

Best Case Scenario:
The average over the last few years about 13,000. Assuming that number and assuming 4000 porting. Then, according to numbers in Jan 2016 I-485 pending inventory, the date will clear the inventory and move to 01 AUG 09.
Worst Case Scenario:
If there are only 7000 available visas and if there is 2500 porting between Jan and Aug, then, according to numbers in Jan 2016 I-485 pending inventory, the date will move to 01 JAN 09.
Most Likely Scenario:
According to me, the most likely scenario is 01 APR 09 -- assuming about 8,000 visas available and about 2000 porting between Jan and Aug.

Data Sources:
I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

Wednesday, December 9, 2015

January 2016 Visa Bulletin and Analysis

January 2016 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today.

EB2:

Cut-off dates for EB2 India moved from 01 JUN 07 to 01 FEB 08. EB2 China stayed at
 01 FEB 12. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is the EB2 India is moving forward.

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 22 APR 04 to 15 MAY 04. EB3 China moved from 15 APR 12 to 01 JUL 12. EB3 Philippines moved from 01 AUG 07 to 01 NOV 07. For all other countries the date moved from 01 SEP 15 to 01 OCT 15.

Good news is there is forward movement for all countries.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was released in October. For EB2 India, there are 18,814 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. For EB3 India, it is 20,207 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date.


What is new ?:

From October visa bulletin, they introduced two different dates. The above dates you see reflect the cut-off date for getting Green Card. They have introduced a new chart of dates. If your priority date is before the cut-off date, then you can apply for I-485, EAD and AP.

More information is here  -- http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo#New Visa

EB2:

Adjustment of Status (AOS) filing cut off date for EB2 India is 01 JUL 09
. For, EB2 China it is 01 JAN 13. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

EB3:


Adjustment of Status (AOS) filing cut off date for EB3 India is 01 JUL 05. For, EB3 China it is 01 OCT 13; For EB3 Philippines it is 01 JAN 10. For all other countries it is 01 JAN 16.

After this, they recently introduced another complexity to this whole puzzle. Now, you see this date on DOS visa bulletin and then, you have to go verify if the same chart is applicable or not on USCIS website. USCIS will determine according to its inventory, whether they want to introduce a new chart. That info can be filed here -- http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo 

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:

I am hoping EB3 India will keep moving forward 2 to 3 weeks, every visa bulletin.

For EB2 India:

What will happen will depends on DOS Strategy. From the looks of it, they are keeping the AOS date as it is and moving the Green Card date slowly forward. It will change based on EB3 to EB2 conversion.


If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:


The above links are for reference only. Please check with your lawyer and check the USCIS website for official latest list.

Final Notes:


I am still trying to wrap my head around why DOS has to introduce this chart and then USCIS has to decide whether this one or new one. Why not USCIS release it directly ? I don't have an answer.

This fiscal year has been very dramatic. From the time DOS introduced the new chart, with very high numbers and then retrogress back, even before October. Then, they decided, DOS will introduce it and USCIS will decide and introduce another chart. I am expecting more to come as they try new things to implement President's Executive Order. We will keep a watch.

For all EB2, EB3 India folks -- 
Unfortunately, if we want to be here, we all have to go through it. Yes, it is a tough long frustrating journey. Hang in there. It will get over soon.


Links:

You can see the official January 2016 Visa Bulletin here -http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-january-2016.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Thursday, September 10, 2015

October 2015 Visa Bulletin and Analysis

October 2015 Visa Bulletin was released yesterday.

EB2:

Date for EB2 India retrogressed further from 01 JAN 06 to 01 MAY 05. EB2 China 
jumped from 01 JAN 06 to 01 JAN 12. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is the EB2 China jumped 6 years.

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India retrogressed from 22 DEC 04 to 08 MAR 04. EB3 China moved from 22 DEC 04 to 15 OCT 11. EB3 Philippines moved from 22 DEC 04 to 01 JAN 07. For all other countries the date stayed at 15 AUG 15.

Good news is there is forward movement for most of the countries.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was released last month. It says the data is current as of 20 July 2015. For EB2 India, there are 18,744 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. For EB3 India, it is 25,146 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date.


On the EB3 India side, there are 8,837 I-485 applications pending in 2004 alone. Here, EB3 Other countries pending count is 11,367.

What is new ?:

This is the first time, the visa bulletin has introduced two different dates. The above dates you see reflect the cut-off date for getting Green Card. They have introduced a new chart of dates. If your priority date is before the cut-off date, then you can apply for I-485, EAD and AP.

More information is here  -- http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo#New Visa

EB2:

Adjustment of Status (AOS) filing cut off date for EB2 India is 01 JUL 11
. For, EB2 China it is 01 MAY 14. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

For example, if your priority date is before 01 JUL 11 and if you belong to EB2 India category, you can file your I-485, EAD, AP applications along with all the other documents and applications next month.

EB3:
Adjustment of Status (AOS) filing cut off date for EB3 India is 01 JUL 05. For, EB3 China it is 01 OCT 13; For EB3 Philippines it is 01 JAN 15. For all other countries it is 01 SEP 15.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:

I was hoping it won't retrogress here.  But it has. Looks like they moved a lot on the cutoff date for getting Green Card.

For EB2 India:

October Visa Bulletin is the first bulletin for the fiscal year. What will happen will depends on DOS Strategy. They have retrogressed EB2 India further on cut-off date for getting Green Card. My guess is they are going to keep it like this for next 6 months or so and then decide.


On the cut-off date for AOS filing, we have no data to back it up. So, my total guess on that is, they will keep it like this for another 3 months or so and see the demand and they will decide to move it up.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:


The above links are for reference only. Please check with your lawyer and check the USCIS website for official latest list.

For all EB2, EB3 India folks -- 
Unfortunately, if we want to be here, we all have to go through it. Yes, it is a tough long frustrating journey. Hang in there. It will get over soon.


Links:

You can see the official October 2015 Visa Bulletin here -http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-october-2015.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Friday, August 14, 2015

September 2015 Visa Bulletin and Analysis

September 2015 Visa Bulletin was released day before yesterday.

EB2:

Date for EB2 India retrogressed 01 OCT 08 to 01 JAN 06. EB2 China 
retrogressed from 15 DEC 13 to 01 JAN 06. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is the EB2 other countries are still current.

EB3: 

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 01 JUN 04 to 22 DEC 04. EB3 China moved from 01 JUN 04 to 22 DEC 04. EB3 Philippines moved from 01 JUN 04 to 22 DEC 04. For all other countries the date moved from 15 JUL 15 to 15 AUG 15. 

Good news is EB3 India moved 6 months and there is forward movement for all the countries. 

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was released couple of days back. It says the data is current as of 20 July 2015. For EB2 India, there are 18,744 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. For EB3 India, it is 25,146 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date.


The explanation given for EB2 India slow movement in the last few months and retrogression this month is -- EB2 Other countries demand has increased. It is interesting to note in the inventory data that there are 17,745 applicants whose I-485 is pending in this category. In this, there are more than 15,000 applicants with priority date 2014 or earlier, in-spite of the fact that it has been current all along. Also, 1,265 applicants are pending under EB2 Philippines and 765 under EB2 Mexico. EB2 China has only 6,413 applicants pending with priority date before 01 JAN 2014.

On the EB3 India side, there are 8,837 I-485 applications pending in 2004 alone. Given that dates have moved to 22 DEC 04, there might be that much spill over OR the data is simply wrong, yet to be updated for porting. Here, EB3 Other countries pending count is 11,367.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:

I am hoping it will does not retrogress and keep moving 2 weeks or more every bulletin

For EB2 India:

October Visa Bulletin is the first bulletin for the fiscal year. What will happen will depends on DOS Strategy. DOS can decide to keep the date same till June Visa Bulletin and start moving from July Visa Bulletin. OR, DOS can decide to keep advancing the priority date slowly every month. The EB3 India date movement of 4 months last Visa bulletin, and 6 months this visa bulletin, instead of the regular 2 weeks, will help in less porting and will eventually help EB2 India as well.

For all EB2, EB3 India folks -- 
Unfortunately, if we want to be here, we all have to go through it. Yes, it is a tough long frustrating journey. Hang in there. It will get over soon.

Links:
You can see the official September 2015 Visa Bulletin here -http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-september-2015.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory