Sunday, February 24, 2019

March 2019 visa bulletin numbers for EB2 and EB3 India


March 2019 Visa Bulletin was released earlier this month. The EB2 India priority date cutoff  for getting Green Card should is 09 APR 09. The EB3 India date is 22 MAY 09. [1]. For foreseeable future, EB3 India dates are going to be better than EB2 India date. EB2 India date moved by 3 days from last Visa Bulletin while EB3 India date moved by one month. According to the prediction provided in Visa Bulletin last month, EB3 India can move a max of 3 months and EB2 India a max of one week.

Estimated 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year (FY 2019) -- between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.

In FY 2018, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 4,096 and EB3 India was 6,050. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [2].

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, For EB3 India, there is no data for 2009. For EB2 India, there are 4457 I-485s pending for Apr, May, June and July of 2009. [3]. There is no update on I-485 inventory after July 2018. We are keenly watching for an update.

Regarding the filing dates, USCIS has a logic, which we have no visibility to. They can technically open up the Filing dates to later dates. This will give opportunity to file I-485 and more importantly get the EAD and give the much needed -- less hassle job portability. For the first time, USCIS accepted "DATES FOR FILING OF EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA APPLICATIONS"  chart in October 2018 Visa Bulletin. They continued the practice till Jan 2019 Visa Bulletin. But from last month onwards, they decided to move back to "Final Action Dates" chart. [4].

Given all of the above information, the final action dates are following the pattern of China, in the sense, EB3 India dates are favorable now than EB2 India dates. This means the days of "upgrading" your petition from EB3 to EB2 are not favorable at this point. Now, it is time to talk to your immigration lawyers are about "downgrading" from EB3 to EB2.

Meanwhile,  if you are waiting for I-485, there are some things that you can prepare yourself before your priority date becomes current. Two items that typically take longer are getting an official birth certificate for all I-485 applicants and Marriage Certificate, if relevant. Along with that, you can talk to your immigration lawyer and see if you need an affidavit for these certificates. If yes, you can get a format for that and prepare that as well.

Data Sources:
[1] March 2019 Visa Bulletin --https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-march-2019.html

[2] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2018AnnualReport/FY18AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf

[3] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.uscis.gov/greencard/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

[4] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

Sunday, January 27, 2019

Feb 2019 Visa Bulletin numbers


Feb 2019 Visa Bulletin was released earlier this month. The EB2 India dates for getting Green Card should be before 06 APR 09. The EB3 India date is at  22 APR 09. [1]. That is correct. For the first time, the EB3 India dates have crossed EB2 India dates. 

Estimated 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year (FY 2019) -- between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.

In FY 2018, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 4,096 and EB3 India was 6,050. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [2].

According to latest inventory we have, as of July 2018, For EB3 India, there is no data for 2009. For EB2 India, there are 4457 I-485s pending for Apr, May, June and July of 2009. [3].

Regarding the filing dates, USCIS has a logic, which we have no visibility to. They can technically open up the Filing dates to latest dates. This will give opportunity to file I-485 and more importantly get the EAD and give the much needed -- less hassle job portability. For the first time, USCIS accepted "DATES FOR FILING OF EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA APPLICATIONS"  chart in in October 2018 Visa Bulletin. They continued the practice till Jan 2019 Visa Bulletin. But this month, they decided to use Final Action dates in place of Dates for Filing in Feb 2019 Visa Bulletin. [4]. Given this, if your priority date is before 01 APR 10 and if you have not filed I-485, you still have chance to file it by 31 Jan 19. Even if you are EB2 India, you can talk to you immigration lawyer and see if you can "downgrade" your application to EB3 India.

Feb 2019 Visa Bulletin has predictions for the coming months. It says final action dates will move upto one week at a time till May for EB2 India and upto three months for EB3 India.

Given all of the above information, the final action dates are following the pattern of China, in the sense EB3 India dates are favorable now than EB2 India dates. This means the days of "upgrading" your petition from EB3 to EB2 are not favorable at this point. Now, it is time to talk to your immigration lawyers are about "downgrading" from EB3 to EB2 !!!

Data Sources:
[1] Feb 2019 Visa Bulletin --https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-february-2019.html

[2] EB2 and EB3 Numbers are taken from -- Page 9 - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2018AnnualReport/FY18AnnualReport%20-%20TableV.pdf



[3] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.uscis.gov/greencard/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

[4] Visa Bulletin information from USCIS -- https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

March 2018 EB2 and EB3 India Numbers


April 2018 Visa Bulletin was released yesterday. The EB2 India dates for getting Green Card should be before 22 DEC 08. The EB3 India date is at  01 FEB 08. [1]

Estimated 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018 -- under Employment Based Green Card category. [2]

In FY 2017, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 2,879 and EB3 India was 6,608. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [3]

According to latest inventory we have, as of Jan 2018, For EB3 India, there are 2050 I-485s pending for 2006 and 1767 for Jan to Aug 2007. For EB2 India, there are 7557 I-485s pending for 2008. [4]

Regarding the filing dates, USCIS has a logic, which we have no visibility to. They can technically open up the Filing dates to latest dates. This will give opportunity to file I-485 and more importantly get the EAD and give the much needed -- less hassle job portability.

Couple of new developments in this Visa Bulletin. One, there is a priority date for EB1 India, which is 01 JAN 12. It was current in last Visa Bulletin. Two, the priority date for EB3 India in the last Visa Bulletin was 01 JAN 07 and it jumped one year and one month to 01 FEB 08. First one is bad news, because it means there will be no spillover to EB2 from EB1. Second is a good news for EB3 India. Applicants with priority date before 01 FEB 08, who have been waiting long time will be able to file their I-485 and get EADs.

Given all this, the short term prediction is EB2 India, for final action dates, will move only at the same pace -- one week to a month per bulletin -- depending on spill over and porting. On the other hand, EB3 India should move much faster.  I surely didn't expect one year movement. But, DOS has done it. It is good for EB3 India applicants. The long term prediction is, EB3 India will match the dates of EB2 India. Then, porting will slow down. There is a chance, EB3 India will start getting ahead of EB2 India in priority dates. Then, like you see in traffic lines, people can jump from one lane to another depending on number of pending applications. How, the EB3 to EB2 is called "upgrade", there can be "downgrade" from EB2 to EB3. It has happened/is happening in EB China categories, we can expect the same in EB India categories as well.

Data Sources:
[1] April 2018 Visa Bulletin --https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-april-2018.html

[2] Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

[3] EB2 Numbers are taken from --https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2017AnnualReport/FY17AnnualReport%20-TableV.pdf

[4] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/Employment-based_I-485_pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_January_2018.pdf

Monday, September 25, 2017

EB2 and EB3 India Visa Bulletin Movements


October 2017 Visa Bulletin was released earlier this month. The first bulletin for FY 2018. The EB2 India dates for getting Green Card stands at 15 SEP 08. The EB3 India date is at 15 OCT 06. [1]

Estimated 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018 -- under Employment Based Green Card category. [2]

In FY 2016, the number of green cards given for EB2 India was 3,930 and EB3 India was 4,583. These numbers confirmed the significant reduction of spillover for EB2 India category. [3]

According to latest inventory we have, as of August 2017, For EB3 India, there are about 1600 I-485s pending for last 3 months of 2006 and 1879 for Jan to Aug 2007. For EB2 India, there are about 1400 I-485s pending for last 4 months of 2008. [4]

Regarding the filing dates, USCIS has a logic, which we have no visibility to. They can technically open up the Filing dates to latest dates. This will give opportunity to file I-485 and more importantly get the EAD and give the much needed -- less hassle job portability.

Given this, I think EB2 India, for final action dates, will move only at the same pace -- one week to a month per bulletin -- depending on spill over and porting. On the other hand, EB3 India should move much faster. Going by the inventory, and assuming 4000 Green Cards to be given, for the whole year -- till September 2018 visa bullein -- the EB3 India can move to 01 Sep 07. For EB2 India, if there is no porting and assuming 4000 GC to be given, it can move to 01 MAY 09. How much less than that, will depend on porting.

Data Sources:
[1] October 2017 Visa Bulletin --https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-october-2017.html

[2] Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

[3] EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

[4] I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from --https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/EB_I_485_Pending_Inventory_August17.pdf

Friday, March 10, 2017

EB2 and EB3 India Latest Numbers


April 2017 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. The EB2 India dates for getting Green Card stands at 22 JUN 08. The EB3 India date is at 24 MAR 05.

Estimated 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2016 and 30 September 2017 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.

DOS also released the complete annual report for FY 2016. The EB2 India numbers from there are 3,930 and EB3 India number is 4,583.

Comparing this to the previous years, the number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2016 - 3,930
FY 2015 - 7,235
FY 2014 - 23,527
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

EB2 India receives 2,809 immigrant visas (Green Cards) every year. On the top of it, it receives spill over from EB1, EB4, EB5 and EB2 - ROW. Typically, unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case).

The numbers released confirms what was suspected all along. The spill over to EB2 India has almost vanished -- 3,930 Vs 2,809. Given the fact that, EB3 to EB2 porting is increasing and it consumes almost all of EB2 numbers, explains the very very slow movement of EB2 India number in each visa bulletin. Please note the availability of EB2 India Green Card was 23,527 in FY 2014 and only 3,930 in FY 2016.

Given this, I think EB2 India will move only at the same pace -- couple of weeks to a month per bulletin -- depending on spill over and porting. On the other hand, EB3 India might move little faster once it crosses 31 MAR 05. If the latest inventory we have as of october 2016, has to be believed, there are only 1729 I-485s pending for 2005. Hence, the faster movement expectation.

If this trend continues, the future for EB2 and EB3 India looks very gloomy. Law change is the only way to make it move forward faster.

Data Sources:

I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

April 2017 Visa Bulletin --https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2017/visa-bulletin-for-april-2017.html



Monday, July 18, 2016

Are we in the new phase for EB2 India ?


August Visa Bulletin was released earlier this month. The EB2 India dates for getting Green Card stands at 15 NOV 04. The EB3 India date is at 08 NOV 04. New Cut-off dates are introduced for EB1 China and India and that date is 01 JAN 10.

Estimated 140,300 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2015 and 30 September 2016 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.

The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2015 - 7,235
FY 2014 - 23,527
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

EB2 India receives 2,809 immigrant visas (Green Cards) every year. On the top of it, it receives spill over from EB1, EB4, EB5 and EB2 - ROW. Typically, unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case).

This year, by the very fact that, DOS has established a cut-off for EB1 India and EB1 China, tell us that EB4, EB5 and EB1 will not come to EB2. We also see from I-485 inventory that there is more demand for EB2 from other countries and more porting happening from EB3 India to EB2 India.

Given all this, it makes me wonder, if we are in a new phase for EB2 India. The spillover reducing on one side and porting from EB3 to EB2 increasing on the other side, makes it nearly impossible for the dates to move forward. In theory, all the 18,000+ EB3 India applicants can port to EB2 India. In theory, all available visas for EB2 India can be consumed by porting. In Practice, if this happens, then EB2 India dates can't move much further and, EB3 and EB2 India dates have to move hand-in-hand. Not a good situation, but it might be the reality ! We have to wait and watch to see if it is !


Data Sources:

I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

August Visa Bulletin -- https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-august-2016.html


Wednesday, April 13, 2016

What to expect in FY 2016 - EB2 India Priority Date Movement and Analysis


Estimated 140,300 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2015 and 30 September 2016 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.

Last few years EB2 India has received good amount of spill overs. Unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case). But, last year the number for EB2 India was relative less compares to the previous years.

The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2015 - 7,235
FY 2014 - 23,527
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

The number of visas available through spillovers on the top of the regular 2,809 visas available and number of applicants porting from EB3 India to EB2 India -- are the two factors that will decide the date movement at the end of every fiscal year. Let us see different scenarios for Sept 2016 visa bulletin EB2 India date.

Best Case Scenario:
The average over the last few years about 13,000. Assuming that number and assuming 4000 porting. Then, according to numbers in Jan 2016 I-485 pending inventory, the date will clear the inventory and move to 01 AUG 09.
Worst Case Scenario:
If there are only 7000 available visas and if there is 2500 porting between Jan and Aug, then, according to numbers in Jan 2016 I-485 pending inventory, the date will move to 01 JAN 09.
Most Likely Scenario:
According to me, the most likely scenario is 01 APR 09 -- assuming about 8,000 visas available and about 2000 porting between Jan and Aug.

Data Sources:
I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf