June 2013 Visa Bulletin and Analysis

June 2013 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. Date for EB2 India is 01 SEP 04 and EB2 China is 15 JUL 08. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

As expected the EB2 India has not moved. The good news here is EB2 China dates are moving, which means till EB2 India reaches that date, it can consume all the spill over numbers that comes to  EB2 category.

The demand data for this month had been released earlier. The cumulative demand prior to Jan 1, 2005 rose to 450 from 425 from 375 from 300 and the cumulative demand prior to 1 Jan 2009 is 24,050 from 23,850 from 23,400 from 23,975.

July, August and September Visa Bulletins will be the last 3 for this Fiscal Year. I am still hoping EB2 dates will start moving from next bulletin onwards. Now, how much movement is all dependent on two main factors -- how much spillover EB2 India will get and how much porting will happen.  Going by this month's demand data, the porting is increasing steadily. Assuming, USCIS/DOS is giving about 260 per month green cards till date for EB2 India. Then, if the spillover is about 10,000 then the dates will move to 01-JAN-08. I am hoping atleast that will happen.

Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 08 JAN 03 and EB3 China is 01 SEP 08. As expected, EB3 India is moving at one week or two weeks per month pace. For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change. The reason being there is no spill over to EB3 India category. Hence only about 2800 green cards are given for this category every year.

To view the June 2013 Visa Bulletin -- Please Click Here

To view the Demand Data -- Please Click Here

May 2013 Visa Bulletin and Analysis

May 2013 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. Date for EB2 India is 01 SEP 04 and EB2 China is 15 MAY 08. The cut-off for EB2-ROW, EB2-Mexico and EB2-Philippines is Current.

As expected the EB2 India has not moved. The good news here is EB2 China dates are moving, which means till EB2 India reaches that date, it can consume all the spill over numbers that comes to  EB2 category.

The demand data for this month has been released earlier and then another revised one. It is interesting to note that the cumulative demand prior to Jan 1, 2005 has raised to 425 from 375 from 300 and the cumulative demand prior to 1 Jan 2009 is 23,850 from 23,400 from 23,975. May be data errors/May be porting from EB2 to EB1. But, the porting is at constant pace as per this demand.

What will happen next ? Like mentioned in the earlier posts, USCIS/DOS has gone back to their earlier strategy -- where in they wait till last quarter of the FY to determine the number of visas to give for EB2 India and China, due to spill over. Given this, I expect lot of movement in July. Going by today's data, it might go to 1 Jan 2008. But it will depend on the spill over that EB2 India gets and the number of porting cases. I still expect the dates for EB2 to go to 1 Apr 2008 in Sept 2013 Visa Bulletin.

Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 22 DEC 02 and EB3 China is 01 DEC 07. As expected, EB3 India is moving at one week or two weeks per month pace. For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change. The reason being there is no spill over to EB3 India category. Hence only about 2800 green cards are given for this category every year.

Focus is currently on the 8 Senators trying to come up with Immigration Reform bill which is expected during next week.

To view the May 2013 Visa Bulletin -- Please Click Here

To view the Demand Data -- Please Click Here

Quick Chicken Soup

This recipe is real simple and quick. The recipe calls for lots of garlic and turmeric. So it automatically becomes a fix for your itchy throat especially during allergy season. My baby loves this soup especially when she is down with cold and wants just something warm to drink.

Ingredients:

• Swanson Organic Chicken Stalk - 1 carton (32 oz)
• Garlic cloves: 8-10 
• Turmeric - 1 tsp
• Crushed black pepper:1 tsp
• dash of Sea Salt
• Oregano: 1/2 tsp
• Onion  1/2 cup fine chopped
• Organic boneless skinless chicken thighs: 8-10 oz
• Egg - 1 count
• Oil - 2-3 tsp

Method:

• Rinse and chop chicken into bite size pieces and marinate with a pinch of salt, turmeric, oregano and about 1/2 tsp of oil and set aside.
• Heat remaining oil in a vessel and add garlic cloves when oil is hot. Crush the garlic cloves inside the oil using a potato smasher. Stir fry garlic cloves till they turn golden brown.
• Add turmeric, chopped onions and oregano and stir fry till onions become translucent.
• Add marinated chicken pieces and stir  fry till chicken is had cooked.
• Add chicken broth and bring to boil.
• Boil for about 10 minutes or till chicken pieces are fully cooked.
• Beat egg is a bowl and pour it into the boiling soup.Stir continuously so that egg spreads out well in the boiling liquid.
• Add sea salt and black pepper.

To serve:

• Serve hot.
• To add a little extra taste, add a teaspoon of vinegar and Serrano peppers when serving.

FY 2014 H1B cap reached

Earlier today, USCIS announced that it has received enough petitions towards the regular cap of 65,000 petitions and also towards the 20,000 advance degree quota.

What this means is, there will be lottery system to see who all got approved. First they will do the advance cap lottery, and then will add the applications of the folks who didn't get through in advance cap to general pool and then do another lottery for general pool.

It is interesting to note last time first week lottery happened in FY 2009.

Below is the timeline, when the H1b quota was over:

FY 2013: Cap reached on June 11, 2012

FY 2012:  Cap reached on Nov 22, 2011

FY 2011: Cap reached on Jan 26, 2011

FY 2010: Cap reached on Dec 21, 2009

FY 2009: Cap reached first week, lottery on April 8, 2008.

FY 2008: Cap reached first day, lottery on April 4, 2007. Advanced degree cap reached on April 30, 2007

FY 2007: Cap reached on May 26, 2006. Advance Degree cap reached on July 26, 2006

To view the new alert from USCIS website -- Please Click Here

April 2013 Visa Bulletin and Analysis

April 2013 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. Date for EB2 India is 01 SEP 04 and EB2 China is 01 APR 08. The cut-off for EB2-ROW, EB2-Mexico and EB2-Philippines is Current.

As expected the EB2 India has not moved. The good news here is EB2 China dates are moving, which means till EB2 India reaches that date, it can consume all the spill over numbers. Another good news is, the EB2 India did not retrogress, even though there was a prediction by DOS in last month Visa Bulletin that it might.

The demand data for this month has been released earlier. It is interesting to note that the cumulative demand prior to Jan 1, 2005 has raised to 375 from 300 and the cumulative demand prior to 1 Jan 2009 has fallen to 23,400 from 23,975. May be data errors/May be porting from EB2 to EB1. We have to wait and watch. But, one thing is clear that there is lot of porting at least with folks having earlier Priority Dates.

What will happen next ? Like mentioned in the earlier posts, USCIS/DOS has gone back to their earlier strategy -- where in they wait till last quarter of the FY to determine the number of visas to give for EB2 India and China, due to spill over. Given this, I expect lot of movement in July. Going by today's data, it might go to 1 Jan 2008. But it will depend on the spill over and the number of porting.

Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 08 DEC 02 and EB3 China is 22 APR 07. As expected, EB3 India is moving at one week or two weeks per month pace. For EB3 India, it is going to move at this pace only till there is a legislative change. The reason being there is no spill over to EB3 India category. Hence only about 2800 green cards are given for this category every year.

One thing that is different this year -- there is revived talk about Immigration everywhere  -- in the media, in Washington, in House and in Senate. Many focus is currently on the 8 Senators trying to come up with CIR bill which is expected during second week of April.

To view the April 2013 Visa Bulletin -- Please Click Here

To view the Demand Data -- Please Click Here

Spillovers and EB2 India Predictions

Earlier this month, DOS updated the Visa Statistics links, thus giving the official FY 2012 numbers.

According to this, these are the number of Green Cards EB2-India  folks have got:

FY 2012 -- 19,726
FY 2011 -- 23,997
FY 2010 -- 19,961
FY 2009 -- 10,106
FY 2008 -- 14,806

In FY 2012, these are the numbers:


EB4 -- 7,478
EB5 -- 7,641
EB1 -- 39,387
EB2 -- 50,593
EB3 -- 39,549
Total -- 144,648

Generally, the spillover works this way --> EB4 to EB5 to EB1 to EB2. In EB2 , all the EB2 ROW excess numbers going to EB2 India and China. Also, the law is in such a way that numbers has to go to most demand country. So, EB2 India will get all the spill overs till it reaches EB2 China PD date. Then, they will go hand in hand.

Let us do some extrapolation. Lets assume there will be about 300 porting per month. So, it will be 3600 there for full FY 2013. Also, from the above data EB2 - India has got about 39% of total EB2 numbers.

I think the best case scenario will be, if EB2 India gets the same as last year about 20,000. In this case, the PD will go as far as 01-AUG-09 in Sept VB, based on the Jan inventory data.  But, from various lawfirm websites we are hearing that this is not possible -- as EB5 demand, EB1 demand and EB2 ROW has increased tremendously. If we assume, there is same number of immigrant visas are given for EB4 and if EB2 India gets about 25% of total EB2 number (45,188), with spillover total EB2 India will be about 15,000. This will make the PD move to 01-APR-08. I feel this is more optimal and can happen. According to me, the worst case scenario will be, EB2 India getting 15%  of the total EB2 number. This still will bring the number to about 10,000 and moving the dates to 01-JAN-08 by Sept 2013 Visa Bulletin.

Of course, there are lot of assumptions here as in the number of porting, EB4 demand staying the same and EB2 ROW's spillover. We need to wait and watch how it spans out.

To view the Visa Statistics at DOS website -- Please Click Here

To view the Jan I-485 inventory data at USCIS website -- Please Click Here

To view the latest predictions from Capitol Immigration Lawgroup -- Please Click Here

Advance Parole entry via DFW

Last month, we came to US using our Advance Parole. I had a paper version of Advance Parole and Aditi had the new card version -- which is both EAD and Advance Parole.

This is the second time we are entering in Advance Parole. We got out of the plane and we in the line for immigration at DFW -- Dallas Fort Worth international airport. When our turn came, I wished the officer and gave our documents. He asked us to do the finger prints and took our picture and took us to secondary inspection area. He asked us to sit in waiting area and he gave our papers to one of officers there and left. There were about 25 people waiting there along with us. After some time, one the officers called my name, we went there and he just gave us the papers. No questions. I opened the advance parole paper and saw it had a stamp with last date in advance parole as the validity date. Both our passports where stamped. We are good to go.

Last time when we entered via EWR, the officer stamped one of the AP papers and didn't stamp the other one. But, he gave both to me. This time in DFW, he stamped both the AP papers and he kept one to himself and gave the other to me.

The inconvenience in DFW compared to EWR was the time it took. It took about 2 hours in the immigration line and about 1 hour in the secondary inspection  There were only about 5 officers in the CBP area and 2 officers in the secondary inspection side.

As many know, Congress is working on the sequestration, to avoid budget cuts at this point. According to Capitol Immigration Lawgroup website, if the deal is not reached, it will affect the CBP area -- which will mean even less number of CBP officers at the port of entry and more wait time. Typically, USCIS is run through the funds it receives from application fees, it won't be affected by federal cuts.

To read more on this from Capitol Immigration Lawgroup -- Please click here