Tuesday, March 17, 2015

What to expect in FY 2015 - EB2 India Priority Date Movement and Analysis


Estimated 144,730 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2014 and 30 September 2015 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.

Last few years EB2 India has received good amount of spill overs. Unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case).

The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2014 - 23,527
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

Average of the above numbers is 18,474. Last year number is 23,527.

Last Fiscal year, DOS had a strategy to keep the dates the same for EB2 India till the last quarter and then move big. This year, they are following a different strategy of moving slowly every visa bulletin.

Let us see different scenarios for Sept 2015 visa bulletin EB2 India date.

Best Case Scenario:
The best number in the previous few years is 23,997. Assuming that number and assuming less porting. Then, according to numbers in Oct 2014 I-485 pending inventory, the date will clear the inventory and move to 01 MAY 10.
Worst Case Scenario:
The least number in the previous few years is 10,106. Assuming that number and assuming there is lot of porting that leaves only 7000 visas. Then, according to numbers in Oct 2014 I-485 pending inventory, the date will move to 01 MAY 09.
Most Likely Scenario:
According to me, the most likely scenario is 01 FEB 10 -- assuming about 16,000 visas available and 4000 porting and few pending for more time due to RFE and other scenarios.

Data Sources:
I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

April 2015 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


April 2015 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India moved from 01 JAN 07 to 01 SEP 07. EB2 China moved from 01 SEP 10 to 01 APR 11. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is that EB2 India have started moving earlier than expected and it is moving fast. Another, good news is EB2 China is moving forward.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 01 JAN 04 to 08 JAN 04. EB3 China moved from 22 OCT 11 to 01 JAN 11. For all other countries the date moved from 01 JUN 14 to 01 OCT 14.

Good news is the dates for most of countries have moved. There is a retrogression in EB3 China number.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was released last month.

Current I-485 inventory shows, For EB2 India, there are 21,082 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. This number was 20,263 in the previous edition. For EB3 India, it is 27,472  applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. It was 29,422 in previous edition.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:
I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India:
I expected the dates to stay the same till June. But, DOS is using a different strategy this time. They have moved a little in Feb Bulletin and they moved more than an year in Mar Bulletin and 8 months in April Bulletin. I am hoping they keep the forward movement trend. 

Links:

Read on Executive Action related to employment based - http://www.uscis.gov/immigrationaction#4

You can see the official April 2015 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-april-2015.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

March 2015 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


March 2015 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India moved from 01 SEP 05 to 01 JAN 07. EB2 China moved from 15 MAR 10 to 01 SEP 10. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is that EB2 India have started moving earlier than expected and it is moving fast. Another, good news is EB2 China is moving forward.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 22 DEC 03 to 01 JAN 04. EB3 China moved from 01 SEP 11 to 22 OCT 11. For all other countries the date moved from 01 JAN 14 to 01 JUN 14.

Good news is the dates for all the countries have moved.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was also released earlier today.

Current I-485 inventory shows, For EB2 India, there are 21,082 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. This number was 20,263 in the previous edition. For EB3 India, it is 27,472  applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. It was 29,422 in previous edition.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:
I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India:
I expected the dates to stay the same till June. But, DOS is using a different strategy this time. They have moved a little in Feb Bulletin and they moved more than an year in Mar Bulletin. I am hoping they keep the forward movement trend. 

Links:

Read on Executive Action related to employment based - http://www.uscis.gov/immigrationaction#4

You can see the official February 2015 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-march-2015.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Friday, January 9, 2015

February 2015 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


February 2015 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India moved from 15 FEB 05 to 01 SEP 05. EB2 China moved from 01 FEB 10 to 15 MAR 10. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is that EB2 India have started moving earlier than expected. Another, good news is EB2 China is moving forward.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 15 DEC 03 to 22 DEC 03. EB3 China jumped from 01 MAR 11 to 01 SEP 11. For all other countries the date moved from 01 JUN 13 to 01 JAN 14.

Good news is the dates for all the countries have moved.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was released in october.

Current I-485 inventory shows, For EB2 India, there are 20,263 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. This number was  31,234 in the previous edition. For EB3 India, it is 29,422 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. It was 30,018 in previous edition.

We are expecting another inventory to be released this month. Will keep you posted on that.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:
I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India:
I expected the dates to stay the same till June. But, DOS is using a different strategy this time. They have moved the little this Bulletin. I am hoping they keep the forward movement trend. They say in this Bulletin that they are expecting it to move forward four to six months.

Links:

Read on Executive Action related to employment based - http://www.uscis.gov/immigrationaction#4

You can see the official February 2015 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-february-2015.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

January 2015 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


January 2015 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India stays at 15 FEB 05. EB2 China moved from 10 JAN 10 to 01 FEB 10. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

As expected EB2 India stays retrogressed. Good news is EB2 China is moving forward.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 01 DEC 03 to 15 DEC 03. EB3 China jumped from 01 JUN 10 to 01 MAR 11. For all other countries the date moved from 01 JUN 12 to 01 NOV 12 to 01 JUN 13.

Good news is the dates for all the countries have moved.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was released last month.

Current I-485 inventory shows, For EB2 India, there are 20,263 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. This number was  31,234 in the previous edition. For EB3 India, it is 29,422 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. It was 30,018 in previous edition.

This tells me that there were atleast 11,000 EB2 India GCs given last fisal year. Interesting EB3 India inventory reduced only by 600. Also, given that there are more than 11,000 folks still waiting to get GC who has priority date of 15 FEB 05 or earlier in EB3 India category, EB2 India date might very well stay the same till June 2015 Visa bulletin. Theoretically, all these folks are eligible to "upgrade" to EB2.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:
I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India:
Now that the dates have retrogressed back, I think it will stay the same till June. I think, it will start moving big from July 2015 Visa Bulletin.

Links:

Read on Executive Action related to employment based - http://www.uscis.gov/immigrationaction#4

You can see the official January 2015 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-january-2015.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Thursday, November 13, 2014

December 2014 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


December 2014 Visa Bulletin was released last week. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India stays at 15 FEB 05. EB2 China moved from  08 DEC 09 to 10 JAN 10. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

As expected EB2 India stays retrogressed. Good news is EB2 China is moving forward.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 22 NOV 03 to 01 DEC 03. EB3 Philippines moved from 01 JUN 12 to 01 NOV 12. EB3 China jumped from 01 JAN 10 to 01 JUN 10. For all other countries the date moved from 01 JUN 12 to 01 NOV 12.

Good news is all the countries have dates moved.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was released earlier this month.

Current I-485 inventory shows, For EB2 India, there are 20,263 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. This number was  31,234 in the previous edition. For EB3 India, it is 29,422 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. It was 30,018 in previous edition.

This tells me that there were atleast 11,000 EB2 India GCs given last fisal year. Interesting EB3 India inventory reduced only by 600. Also, given that there are more than 11,000 folks still waiting to get GC who has priority date of 15 FEB 05 or earlier in EB3 India category, EB2 India date might very well stay the same till June 2015 Visa bulletin. Theoretically, all these folks are eligible to "upgrade" to EB2.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:
I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India:
Now that the dates have retrogressed back, I think it will stay the same till June. I think, it will start moving big from July 2015 Visa Bulletin.

Links:

Interesting Read on Executive Action -- http://online.wsj.com/articles/white-house-considers-timing-of-executive-action-on-immigration-1415912319

You can see the official December 2014 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-december-2014.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Thursday, October 9, 2014

November 2014 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


November 2014 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India retrogressed back to 15 FEB 05. EB2 China moved from 15 NOV 09 to 08 DEC 09. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

As expected EB2 India retrogressed, but it happened one month earlier than expected. Good news is EB2 China is moving forward.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 15 NOV 03 to 22 NOV 03. EB3 Philippines moved from 01 OCT 11 to 01 JUN 12. EB3 China jumped from 01 APT 09 to 01 JAN 10. For all other countries the date moved from 01 OCT 11 to 01 JUN 12.

Good news is all the countries have dates moved.

I-485 Pending inventory:

Current I-485 inventory shows data till 21 JUL 2014. For EB2 India, there are 31,234 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. For EB3 India, it is 30,018 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. 

Hopefully, a new inventory will be released this month. That will give a good idea on what the last Fiscal looked like and what the future holds.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:
I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India:
Now that the dates have retrogressed back, I think it will stay the same till June. I think, it will start moving big from July 2015 Visa Bulletin.

Links:

You can see the official November 2014 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-november-2014.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory