Thursday, October 9, 2014

November 2014 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


November 2014 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India retrogressed back to 15 FEB 05. EB2 China moved from 15 NOV 09 to 08 DEC 09. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

As expected EB2 India retrogressed, but it happened one month earlier than expected. Good news is EB2 China is moving forward.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 15 NOV 03 to 22 NOV 03. EB3 Philippines moved from 01 OCT 11 to 01 JUN 12. EB3 China jumped from 01 APT 09 to 01 JAN 10. For all other countries the date moved from 01 OCT 11 to 01 JUN 12.

Good news is all the countries have dates moved.

I-485 Pending inventory:

Current I-485 inventory shows data till 21 JUL 2014. For EB2 India, there are 31,234 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. For EB3 India, it is 30,018 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. 

Hopefully, a new inventory will be released this month. That will give a good idea on what the last Fiscal looked like and what the future holds.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:
I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India:
Now that the dates have retrogressed back, I think it will stay the same till June. I think, it will start moving big from July 2015 Visa Bulletin.

Links:

You can see the official November 2014 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-november-2014.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

October 2014 Visa Bulletin and analysis


October 2014 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India stayed at 01 MAY 09. EB2 China moved from 08 OCT 09 to 15 NOV 09. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

As expected EB2 India stayed at 01 MAY 09. Good news is EB2 China is moving forward.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 08 NOV 03 to 15 NOV 03. EB3 Philippines moved from 01 APR 11 to 01 OCT 11. EB3 China jumped from 01 NOV 08 to 01 APT 09. For all other countries the date moved from 01 APR 11 to 01 OCT 11.

Good news is all the countries have dates moved.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 inventory was released earlier.

Current I-485 inventory shows data till 21 JUL 2014. For EB2 India, there are 31,234 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. For EB3 India, it is 30,018 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. 

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:
I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India:
I am hoping the date will remain the same at-least till November Visa Bulletin. But, there are indications in other websites and in the visa bulletin that it might retrogress in November Visa Bulletin. I think it will retrogress to 15 DEC 04.  But it depends on DOS strategy for this new fiscal year that begins in October. 

Links:

You can see the official October 2014 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-october-2014.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Thursday, August 14, 2014

September 2014 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


September 2014 Visa Bulletin was released earlier this week. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India moved from 22 JAN 09 to 01 MAY 09. EB2 China stayed at 08 OCT 09. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News !!! EB2 India has moved forward. I expected it to move till 01 MAR 09. It is very good news that it has moved till 01 MAY 09.

If you are becoming current in September and if you are going to file I-485, please make sure to contact your immigration lawyer now and get the relevant documents. Please make sure your file is sent to USCIS within first 3 days of September.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India stayed at 08 NOV 03 and EB3 Philippines from 01 JUN 10 to 01 APR 11 and EB3 China stayed at 01 NOV 08 and all other countries it stays at 01 APR 11.

Good news here is EB3 Philippines date has moved almost a year.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 inventory was released earlier this month.

Current I-485 inventory shows data till 21 JUL 2014. For EB2 India, there are 31,234 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. For EB3 India, it is 30,018 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. 

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India - I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India:

I am hoping it will stay the same till November Visa Bulletin

Then, the next question is what might happen after that.

Last year the dates for EB2 India was like this:
Jul 2013 -- 01SEP04
Aug 2013 -- 01JAN08
Sep 2013 -- 15JUN08
Oct 2013 -- 15JUN08
Nov 2013 -- 15JUN08
Dec 2013 -- 15NOV04

I expect pretty much the same. It stay the same till November Visa Bulletin. Then, retrogress back. I think it will retrogress again to say, 15 DEC 04 in November 2014 Visa Bulletin. It totally depends on what strategy DOS wants to follow this time.

Current Visa Bulletin also mentions that the date might retrogress as early as November.

Links:

You can see the official September 2014 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-september-2014.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

August 2014 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


August 2014 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India moved from 01 SEP 08 to 22 JAN 09 and EB2 China from 22 JUL 09 to 08 OCT 09. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News !!! EB2 India and EB2 China keeps moving forward.

If you are becoming current in August and if you are going to file I-485, please make sure to contact your immigration lawyer now and get the relevant documents.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India from 01 NOV 03 to 08 NOV 03 and EB3 Philippines from 01 JAN 09 to 01 JUN 10 and EB3 China from 01 OCT 06 to 01 NOV 08 and all other countries it stays at 01 APR 11.

Good news here is EB3 India date has moved 1 week, EB3 Philippines date has moved more than a year and EB3 China has also move more than an year..

I-485 Pending inventory:

Current I-485 inventory shows data till 1 APR 2014. For EB2 India, there are 31,187 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. For EB3 India, it is 30,992 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. 

The new inventory should come sometime this month. We will keep you posted on that.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India - I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India,

My calculation says, it will move to 01 MAR 09 in Sept 2014 Visa Bulletin. There are few law firms that say, it might move as much as 01 SEP 09. We have to wait and watch. Of-course, more the merrier.

Then, the next question is what might happen after that.

Last year the dates for EB2 India was like this:
Jul 2013 -- 01SEP04
Aug 2013 -- 01JAN08
Sep 2013 -- 15JUN08
Oct 2013 -- 15JUN08
Nov 2013 -- 15JUN08
Dec 2013 -- 15NOV04

I expect pretty much the same. The dates will move till Sept VB. Then, stay put for one month or two months. Then, retrogress back. I think it will retrogress again to say, 15 DEC 04 in November 2014 Visa Bulletin. It totally depends on what strategy DOS wants to follow this time.

Links:

You can see the official August 2014 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-august-2014.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

July 2014 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


July 2014 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India is 01 SEP 08 and EB2 China is 22 JUL 09. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News !!! EB2 India dates have moved finally. Also, EB2 China keeps moving forward, two months this time.

If you are becoming current in July and if you are going to file I-485, please make sure to contact your immigration lawyer now and get the relevant documents. If you file on July 1, 2014, you are increasing your chances of getting GC this year.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 01 NOV 03 and EB3 Philippines is 01 JAN 09 and EB3 China is 01 OCT 06 and all other countries is 01 APR 11.

Good news here is EB3 India date has moved 2 weeks and EB3 Philippines date has moved one year

No movement for Others. 

Apparently, there is lot of "downgrade" from EB2 China to EB3 China.

I-485 Pending inventory:

Current I-485 inventory shows data till 1 APR 2014. For EB2 India, there are 31,187 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. For EB3 India, it is 30,992 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. 

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India - I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India,

My calculation says, it will move to 01 MAR 09 by Sept 2014 Visa Bulletin. There are few law firms that say, it might move as much as 01 SEP 09. We have to wait and watch. Of-course, more the merrier.

Then, the next question is what might happen after that.

Last year the dates for EB2 India was like this:
Jul 2013 -- 01SEP04
Aug 2013 -- 01JAN08
Sep 2013 -- 15JUN08
Oct 2013 -- 15JUN08
Nov 2013 -- 15JUN08

Dec 2013 -- 15NOV04

I expect pretty much the same. The dates will move till Sept VB. Then, stay put for one month or two months. Then, retrogress back. I think it will retrogress again to say, 15 DEC 04 in November 2014 Visa Bulletin. It totally depends on what strategy DOS wants to follow this time.


Links:

You can see the official July 2014 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-july-2014.html 

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

June 2014 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


June 2014 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India is 15 NOV 04 and EB2 China is 22 MAY 09. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

The good news is EB2 China keeps moving forward, more than a month this time.

No movement for EB2 India. From the recent news from various lawfirm websites, the dates for EB2 India will likely move only in August 2014 Visa Bulletin. They also mention that it might move to Jan 1, 2008. One of them is here -- http://www.murthy.com/2014/05/01/official-predictions-on-priority-date-movement-for-fy14/

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:


EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India is 15 OCT 03 and EB3 Philippines is 01 JAN 08 and EB3 China is 01 OCT 06 and all other countries is 01 APR 11.

Good news here is EB3 India date has moved 2 weeks and EB3 Philippines date has moved 2 months.

EB3 China has retrogressed 6 years. Apparently, there is lot of "downgrade" from EB2 China to EB3 China.

Visa Bulletin says, there has been sudden surge of EB3 applicants. That is why the dates for Mexico, China and Worldwide has been retrogressed.


I-485 Pending inventory:

New I-485 inventory was released in Jan 2014. For EB2 India, there are 31,242 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. For EB3 India, it is 32,066 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. 

There should be another update on the inventory data. We will keep you posted once it comes out.


Links:

You can see the official May 2014 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-may-2014.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

What to expect - FY 2014 EB2 India Priority Date Movement and Analysis


Estimated 150,000 Green Cards are expected to be given this year under Employment Based Green Card category.

Last few years EB2 India has received good amount of spill overs. Unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case).

The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

Average of the above numbers is 17,632. Last year number is 17,193.

First question is, when will the dates start moving again ?
Typically, the movement for EB2 India is expected from June visa bulletin as it is the start of the last 4 months in the fiscal year, where spillovers can be applied. But, last year, DOS moved the dates only in August Visa Bulletin. So, depending on which strategy they use, the EB2 India dates can start moving as early as June 2014 Visa Bulletin or as late as August 2014 Visa Bulletin.

Next question will be, how much will it move ?
Again, depending on the DOS strategy, whenever they move, they can move all at once or in stages every visa bulletin -- which, I think can be between 01 JAN 08 (to move in stages) and as late as 01 OCT 09.

Next question will be, What are the scenarios for Sept 2014 visa bulletin EB2 India date ?
Best Case Scenario:
The best number in the previous few years is 23,997. Assuming that number and assuming very less porting that leaves about 23,000 visas. Then, according to numbers in Jan 2014 I-485 pending inventory, the date will move to 01 OCT 09.
Worst Case Scenario:
The least number in the previous few years is 10,106. Assuming that number and assuming there is lot of porting that leaves only 6000 visas. Then, according to numbers in Jan 2014 I-485 pending inventory, the date will move to 15 AUG 08.
Most Likely Scenario:
According to me, the most likely scenario is 01 MAR 09 -- assuming about 16,000 visas available and 2400 porting and few pending for more time due to RFE and other scenarios.

Data Sources:
I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

Annual Limits and Spill Over rule for FY 2014 --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf