April 2017 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. The EB2 India dates for getting Green Card stands at 22 JUN 08. The EB3 India date is at 24 MAR 05.
Estimated 140,000 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2016 and 30 September 2017 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.
DOS also released the complete annual report for FY 2016. The EB2 India numbers from there are 3,930 and EB3 India number is 4,583.
Comparing this to the previous years, the number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:
FY 2016 - 3,930
FY 2015 - 7,235
FY 2014 - 23,527
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806
EB2 India receives 2,809 immigrant visas (Green Cards) every year. On the top of it, it receives spill over from EB1, EB4, EB5 and EB2 - ROW. Typically, unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case).
The numbers released confirms what was suspected all along. The spill over to EB2 India has almost vanished -- 3,930 Vs 2,809. Given the fact that, EB3 to EB2 porting is increasing and it consumes almost all of EB2 numbers, explains the very very slow movement of EB2 India number in each visa bulletin. Please note the availability of EB2 India Green Card was 23,527 in FY 2014 and only 3,930 in FY 2016.
Given this, I think EB2 India will move only at the same pace -- couple of weeks to a month per bulletin -- depending on spill over and porting. On the other hand, EB3 India might move little faster once it crosses 31 MAR 05. If the latest inventory we have as of october 2016, has to be believed, there are only 1729 I-485s pending for 2005. Hence, the faster movement expectation.
If this trend continues, the future for EB2 and EB3 India looks very gloomy. Law change is the only way to make it move forward faster.
I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory
EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html
Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf
April 2017 Visa Bulletin --https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2017/visa-bulletin-for-april-2017.html