Saturday, July 11, 2015

August 2015 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


August 2015 Visa Bulletin was released yesterday.

EB2:

Date for EB2 India stayed at 01 OCT 08. EB2 China moved from 01 OCT 13 to 15 DEC 13. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is EB2 China is moving forward.

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 01 FEB 04 to 01 JUN 04. EB3 China retrogressed from 01 SEP 11 to 01 JUN 04. EB3 Philippines moved from Unavailable to 01 JUN 04. For all other countries the date moved from 01 APR 15 to 15 JUL 15.

Good news is the dates for most of countries have moved forward.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was released earlier this month. There are couple of interesting facts on that. One, it has only the summary data and not country specific data. Two, they have released the data now and the data was as of 1 April 2015. This does not give us much insight on latest happenings that affects the data movement.

Last I-485 inventory shows, For EB2 India, there are 21,082 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. This number was 20,263 in the previous edition.For EB3 India, it is 27,472 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. It was 29,422 in previous edition.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:

I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week. This month the data has moved 3 months. There is a possibility that it might move a month next bulletin too to apply the remaining spillovers in EB3 category. One thing to watch India, China and Philippines all three have the same cut-off date.

For EB2 India:

Looks like the I am in a totally unknown territory now. Lot of possibilities at this point. Reading from few lawfirm websites, looks like DOS is saying it will stay the same next visa bulletin. But, there is a slight possibility that it might move if the EB2 ROW demand drops this month.

What will happen from October Visa Bulletin ? Again, lot of possibilities and totally depends on DOS. Since September marks the last bulletin of the fiscal year, October can be totally new. DOS can decide to go back to their old strategy -- keep the date same till November then, retrogress totally back, say to 2005 and keep it at that till June. This may happen if they feel the reason for all the date movement this year is too much. DOS decides to be on the new strategy -- they might keep continuing with the same date and watch for porting. In that case, depending on the porting it will stay the same or move forward. The EB3 India date movement of 4 months this Visa bulletin instead of the regular 2 weeks, will help in less porting and will eventually help EB2 India as well.

For all EB2, EB3 India folks -- 
Unfortunately, if we want to be here, we all have to go through it. Yes, it is a tough long frustrating journey. Hang in there. It will get over soon.

Links:
You can see the official August 2015 Visa Bulletin here -http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-august-2015.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

July 2015 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


July 2015 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India stayed at 01 OCT 08. EB2 China moved from 01 JUN 13 to 01 OCT 13. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is EB2 China is moving forward.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 22 JAN 04 to 01 FEB 04. EB3 China stayed at 01 SEP 11. EB3 Philippines became UnavailableFor all other countries the date moved from 15 FEB 15 to 01 APR 15.

Good news is the dates for most of countries have moved forward. 

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was supposed to come out couple of months back. Nothing yet. We will keep a watch on that and will keep you all posted.

Current I-485 inventory shows, For EB2 India, there are 21,082 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. This number was 20,263 in the previous edition. For EB3 India, it is 27,472  applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. It was 29,422 in previous edition.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:
I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India:
I thought the dates will move to 01 FEB 2010 by September visa bulletin -- http://ambals.blogspot.com/2015/03/what-to-expect-in-fy-2015-eb2-india.html. I was hoping they will start applying spillovers from July Bulletin and it will move faster. But, what has happened is totally opposite. The EB2 India forward movement stopped. The date stayed the same. Over the last few days, they have indicated that there is a very high sudden demand for other EB2 categories. This directly affects the spillover to EB2 India. I hope DOS is just being cautious and keeping the date the same to watch the demand this month. Now, the dates movement will totally depend on demand for other EB2 categories. I hope the demand stabilizes and they move it forward in August.

Links:

Read on Executive Action related to employment based - http://www.uscis.gov/immigrationaction#4

You can see the official June 2015 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-july-2015.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

June 2015 Visa Bulletin and Analysis

June 2015 Visa Bulletin was released yesterday. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India moved from 15 APR 08 to 01 OCT 08. EB2 China moved from 01 JUN 12 to 01 JUN 13. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is that EB2 India have started moving earlier than expected and it is moving fast. Another, good news is EB2 China is moving forward.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 15 JAN 04 to 22 JAN 04. EB3 China moved from 01 MAY 11 to 01 SEP 11. EB3 Philippines moved from 01 JUL 07 to 01 JAN 05For all other countries the date moved from 01 JAN 15 to 15 FEB 15.

Good news is the dates for most of countries have moved. There is a retrogression in EB3 Philippines number.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was supposed to come out last month. Nothing yet. We will keep a watch on that and will keep you all posted.

Current I-485 inventory shows, For EB2 India, there are 21,082 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. This number was 20,263 in the previous edition. For EB3 India, it is 27,472  applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. It was 29,422 in previous edition.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:
I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India:
I expected the dates to stay the same till June. But, DOS is using a different strategy this time. They have moved a little in Feb Bulletin and they moved more than an year in Mar Bulletin and another 8 months in April Bulletin and another 7 months in May Bulletin and another 6 months in June Bulletin. I still think it will move till 01 FEB 2010 by September visa bulletin -- http://ambals.blogspot.com/2015/03/what-to-expect-in-fy-2015-eb2-india.html. Typically, they start applying spillovers from July visa bulletin. I am hoping it will move forward faster next 2 months.

Links:

Read on Executive Action related to employment based - http://www.uscis.gov/immigrationaction#4

You can see the official June 2015 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-june-2015.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Monday, April 13, 2015

May 2015 Visa Bulletin and Analysis

May 2015 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India moved from 01 SEP 07 to 15 APR 08. EB2 China moved from 01 APR 11 to 01 JUN 12. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is that EB2 India have started moving earlier than expected and it is moving fast. Another, good news is EB2 China is moving forward.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 08 JAN 04 to 15 JAN 04. EB3 China moved from 01 JAN 11 to 01 MAY 11. EB3 Philippines is 01 JUL 07 from 01 OCT 14For all other countries the date moved from 01 OCT 14 to 01 JAN 15.

Good news is the dates for most of countries have moved. There is a retrogression in EB3 Philippines number.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was released last month.

Current I-485 inventory shows, For EB2 India, there are 21,082 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. This number was 20,263 in the previous edition. For EB3 India, it is 27,472  applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. It was 29,422 in previous edition.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:
I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India:
I expected the dates to stay the same till June. But, DOS is using a different strategy this time. They have moved a little in Feb Bulletin and they moved more than an year in Mar Bulletin and another 8 months in April Bulletin and another 7 months in May Bulletin. I am hoping they keep the forward movement trend. 

Links:

Read on Executive Action related to employment based - http://www.uscis.gov/immigrationaction#4

You can see the official May 2015 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-may-2015.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

What to expect in FY 2015 - EB2 India Priority Date Movement and Analysis


Estimated 144,730 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2014 and 30 September 2015 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.

Last few years EB2 India has received good amount of spill overs. Unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case).

The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2014 - 23,527
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

Average of the above numbers is 18,474. Last year number is 23,527.

Last Fiscal year, DOS had a strategy to keep the dates the same for EB2 India till the last quarter and then move big. This year, they are following a different strategy of moving slowly every visa bulletin.

Let us see different scenarios for Sept 2015 visa bulletin EB2 India date.

Best Case Scenario:
The best number in the previous few years is 23,997. Assuming that number and assuming less porting. Then, according to numbers in Oct 2014 I-485 pending inventory, the date will clear the inventory and move to 01 MAY 10.
Worst Case Scenario:
The least number in the previous few years is 10,106. Assuming that number and assuming there is lot of porting that leaves only 7000 visas. Then, according to numbers in Oct 2014 I-485 pending inventory, the date will move to 01 MAY 09.
Most Likely Scenario:
According to me, the most likely scenario is 01 FEB 10 -- assuming about 16,000 visas available and 4000 porting and few pending for more time due to RFE and other scenarios.

Data Sources:
I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

April 2015 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


April 2015 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India moved from 01 JAN 07 to 01 SEP 07. EB2 China moved from 01 SEP 10 to 01 APR 11. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is that EB2 India have started moving earlier than expected and it is moving fast. Another, good news is EB2 China is moving forward.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 01 JAN 04 to 08 JAN 04. EB3 China moved from 22 OCT 11 to 01 JAN 11. For all other countries the date moved from 01 JUN 14 to 01 OCT 14.

Good news is the dates for most of countries have moved. There is a retrogression in EB3 China number.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was released last month.

Current I-485 inventory shows, For EB2 India, there are 21,082 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. This number was 20,263 in the previous edition. For EB3 India, it is 27,472  applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. It was 29,422 in previous edition.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:
I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India:
I expected the dates to stay the same till June. But, DOS is using a different strategy this time. They have moved a little in Feb Bulletin and they moved more than an year in Mar Bulletin and 8 months in April Bulletin. I am hoping they keep the forward movement trend. 

Links:

Read on Executive Action related to employment based - http://www.uscis.gov/immigrationaction#4

You can see the official April 2015 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-april-2015.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

March 2015 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


March 2015 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India moved from 01 SEP 05 to 01 JAN 07. EB2 China moved from 15 MAR 10 to 01 SEP 10. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is that EB2 India have started moving earlier than expected and it is moving fast. Another, good news is EB2 China is moving forward.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 22 DEC 03 to 01 JAN 04. EB3 China moved from 01 SEP 11 to 22 OCT 11. For all other countries the date moved from 01 JAN 14 to 01 JUN 14.

Good news is the dates for all the countries have moved.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was also released earlier today.

Current I-485 inventory shows, For EB2 India, there are 21,082 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. This number was 20,263 in the previous edition. For EB3 India, it is 27,472  applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. It was 29,422 in previous edition.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:
I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India:
I expected the dates to stay the same till June. But, DOS is using a different strategy this time. They have moved a little in Feb Bulletin and they moved more than an year in Mar Bulletin. I am hoping they keep the forward movement trend. 

Links:

Read on Executive Action related to employment based - http://www.uscis.gov/immigrationaction#4

You can see the official February 2015 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-march-2015.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory