Wednesday, April 13, 2016

What to expect in FY 2016 - EB2 India Priority Date Movement and Analysis


Estimated 140,300 Green Cards (immigrant visas) are expected to be given this fiscal year -- between 1 October 2015 and 30 September 2016 -- under Employment Based Green Card category.

Last few years EB2 India has received good amount of spill overs. Unused numbers from EB4 and EB5 go to EB1. Unused numbers from EB1 goes to EB2. In EB2, all the spillover go to most retrogressed country (India in this case) till it reaches the next retrogressed (China in this case). But, last year the number for EB2 India was relative less compares to the previous years.

The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2015 - 7,235
FY 2014 - 23,527
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

The number of visas available through spillovers on the top of the regular 2,809 visas available and number of applicants porting from EB3 India to EB2 India -- are the two factors that will decide the date movement at the end of every fiscal year. Let us see different scenarios for Sept 2016 visa bulletin EB2 India date.

Best Case Scenario:
The average over the last few years about 13,000. Assuming that number and assuming 4000 porting. Then, according to numbers in Jan 2016 I-485 pending inventory, the date will clear the inventory and move to 01 AUG 09.
Worst Case Scenario:
If there are only 7000 available visas and if there is 2500 porting between Jan and Aug, then, according to numbers in Jan 2016 I-485 pending inventory, the date will move to 01 JAN 09.
Most Likely Scenario:
According to me, the most likely scenario is 01 APR 09 -- assuming about 8,000 visas available and about 2000 porting between Jan and Aug.

Data Sources:
I-485 pending inventory numbers are taken from -- http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

EB2 Numbers are taken from -- http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

Annual Limits and Spill Over rule --http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

Wednesday, December 9, 2015

January 2016 Visa Bulletin and Analysis

January 2016 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today.

EB2:

Cut-off dates for EB2 India moved from 01 JUN 07 to 01 FEB 08. EB2 China stayed at
 01 FEB 12. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is the EB2 India is moving forward.

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 22 APR 04 to 15 MAY 04. EB3 China moved from 15 APR 12 to 01 JUL 12. EB3 Philippines moved from 01 AUG 07 to 01 NOV 07. For all other countries the date moved from 01 SEP 15 to 01 OCT 15.

Good news is there is forward movement for all countries.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was released in October. For EB2 India, there are 18,814 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. For EB3 India, it is 20,207 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date.


What is new ?:

From October visa bulletin, they introduced two different dates. The above dates you see reflect the cut-off date for getting Green Card. They have introduced a new chart of dates. If your priority date is before the cut-off date, then you can apply for I-485, EAD and AP.

More information is here  -- http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo#New Visa

EB2:

Adjustment of Status (AOS) filing cut off date for EB2 India is 01 JUL 09
. For, EB2 China it is 01 JAN 13. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

EB3:


Adjustment of Status (AOS) filing cut off date for EB3 India is 01 JUL 05. For, EB3 China it is 01 OCT 13; For EB3 Philippines it is 01 JAN 10. For all other countries it is 01 JAN 16.

After this, they recently introduced another complexity to this whole puzzle. Now, you see this date on DOS visa bulletin and then, you have to go verify if the same chart is applicable or not on USCIS website. USCIS will determine according to its inventory, whether they want to introduce a new chart. That info can be filed here -- http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo 

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:

I am hoping EB3 India will keep moving forward 2 to 3 weeks, every visa bulletin.

For EB2 India:

What will happen will depends on DOS Strategy. From the looks of it, they are keeping the AOS date as it is and moving the Green Card date slowly forward. It will change based on EB3 to EB2 conversion.


If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:


The above links are for reference only. Please check with your lawyer and check the USCIS website for official latest list.

Final Notes:


I am still trying to wrap my head around why DOS has to introduce this chart and then USCIS has to decide whether this one or new one. Why not USCIS release it directly ? I don't have an answer.

This fiscal year has been very dramatic. From the time DOS introduced the new chart, with very high numbers and then retrogress back, even before October. Then, they decided, DOS will introduce it and USCIS will decide and introduce another chart. I am expecting more to come as they try new things to implement President's Executive Order. We will keep a watch.

For all EB2, EB3 India folks -- 
Unfortunately, if we want to be here, we all have to go through it. Yes, it is a tough long frustrating journey. Hang in there. It will get over soon.


Links:

You can see the official January 2016 Visa Bulletin here -http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-january-2016.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Thursday, September 10, 2015

October 2015 Visa Bulletin and Analysis

October 2015 Visa Bulletin was released yesterday.

EB2:

Date for EB2 India retrogressed further from 01 JAN 06 to 01 MAY 05. EB2 China 
jumped from 01 JAN 06 to 01 JAN 12. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is the EB2 China jumped 6 years.

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India retrogressed from 22 DEC 04 to 08 MAR 04. EB3 China moved from 22 DEC 04 to 15 OCT 11. EB3 Philippines moved from 22 DEC 04 to 01 JAN 07. For all other countries the date stayed at 15 AUG 15.

Good news is there is forward movement for most of the countries.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was released last month. It says the data is current as of 20 July 2015. For EB2 India, there are 18,744 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. For EB3 India, it is 25,146 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date.


On the EB3 India side, there are 8,837 I-485 applications pending in 2004 alone. Here, EB3 Other countries pending count is 11,367.

What is new ?:

This is the first time, the visa bulletin has introduced two different dates. The above dates you see reflect the cut-off date for getting Green Card. They have introduced a new chart of dates. If your priority date is before the cut-off date, then you can apply for I-485, EAD and AP.

More information is here  -- http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo#New Visa

EB2:

Adjustment of Status (AOS) filing cut off date for EB2 India is 01 JUL 11
. For, EB2 China it is 01 MAY 14. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

For example, if your priority date is before 01 JUL 11 and if you belong to EB2 India category, you can file your I-485, EAD, AP applications along with all the other documents and applications next month.

EB3:
Adjustment of Status (AOS) filing cut off date for EB3 India is 01 JUL 05. For, EB3 China it is 01 OCT 13; For EB3 Philippines it is 01 JAN 15. For all other countries it is 01 SEP 15.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:

I was hoping it won't retrogress here.  But it has. Looks like they moved a lot on the cutoff date for getting Green Card.

For EB2 India:

October Visa Bulletin is the first bulletin for the fiscal year. What will happen will depends on DOS Strategy. They have retrogressed EB2 India further on cut-off date for getting Green Card. My guess is they are going to keep it like this for next 6 months or so and then decide.


On the cut-off date for AOS filing, we have no data to back it up. So, my total guess on that is, they will keep it like this for another 3 months or so and see the demand and they will decide to move it up.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:


The above links are for reference only. Please check with your lawyer and check the USCIS website for official latest list.

For all EB2, EB3 India folks -- 
Unfortunately, if we want to be here, we all have to go through it. Yes, it is a tough long frustrating journey. Hang in there. It will get over soon.


Links:

You can see the official October 2015 Visa Bulletin here -http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-october-2015.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Friday, August 14, 2015

September 2015 Visa Bulletin and Analysis

September 2015 Visa Bulletin was released day before yesterday.

EB2:

Date for EB2 India retrogressed 01 OCT 08 to 01 JAN 06. EB2 China 
retrogressed from 15 DEC 13 to 01 JAN 06. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is the EB2 other countries are still current.

EB3: 

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 01 JUN 04 to 22 DEC 04. EB3 China moved from 01 JUN 04 to 22 DEC 04. EB3 Philippines moved from 01 JUN 04 to 22 DEC 04. For all other countries the date moved from 15 JUL 15 to 15 AUG 15. 

Good news is EB3 India moved 6 months and there is forward movement for all the countries. 

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was released couple of days back. It says the data is current as of 20 July 2015. For EB2 India, there are 18,744 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. For EB3 India, it is 25,146 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date.


The explanation given for EB2 India slow movement in the last few months and retrogression this month is -- EB2 Other countries demand has increased. It is interesting to note in the inventory data that there are 17,745 applicants whose I-485 is pending in this category. In this, there are more than 15,000 applicants with priority date 2014 or earlier, in-spite of the fact that it has been current all along. Also, 1,265 applicants are pending under EB2 Philippines and 765 under EB2 Mexico. EB2 China has only 6,413 applicants pending with priority date before 01 JAN 2014.

On the EB3 India side, there are 8,837 I-485 applications pending in 2004 alone. Given that dates have moved to 22 DEC 04, there might be that much spill over OR the data is simply wrong, yet to be updated for porting. Here, EB3 Other countries pending count is 11,367.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:

I am hoping it will does not retrogress and keep moving 2 weeks or more every bulletin

For EB2 India:

October Visa Bulletin is the first bulletin for the fiscal year. What will happen will depends on DOS Strategy. DOS can decide to keep the date same till June Visa Bulletin and start moving from July Visa Bulletin. OR, DOS can decide to keep advancing the priority date slowly every month. The EB3 India date movement of 4 months last Visa bulletin, and 6 months this visa bulletin, instead of the regular 2 weeks, will help in less porting and will eventually help EB2 India as well.

For all EB2, EB3 India folks -- 
Unfortunately, if we want to be here, we all have to go through it. Yes, it is a tough long frustrating journey. Hang in there. It will get over soon.

Links:
You can see the official September 2015 Visa Bulletin here -http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-september-2015.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Saturday, July 11, 2015

August 2015 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


August 2015 Visa Bulletin was released yesterday.

EB2:

Date for EB2 India stayed at 01 OCT 08. EB2 China moved from 01 OCT 13 to 15 DEC 13. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is EB2 China is moving forward.

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 01 FEB 04 to 01 JUN 04. EB3 China retrogressed from 01 SEP 11 to 01 JUN 04. EB3 Philippines moved from Unavailable to 01 JUN 04. For all other countries the date moved from 01 APR 15 to 15 JUL 15.

Good news is the dates for most of countries have moved forward.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was released earlier this month. There are couple of interesting facts on that. One, it has only the summary data and not country specific data. Two, they have released the data now and the data was as of 1 April 2015. This does not give us much insight on latest happenings that affects the data movement.

Last I-485 inventory shows, For EB2 India, there are 21,082 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. This number was 20,263 in the previous edition.For EB3 India, it is 27,472 applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. It was 29,422 in previous edition.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:

I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week. This month the data has moved 3 months. There is a possibility that it might move a month next bulletin too to apply the remaining spillovers in EB3 category. One thing to watch India, China and Philippines all three have the same cut-off date.

For EB2 India:

Looks like the I am in a totally unknown territory now. Lot of possibilities at this point. Reading from few lawfirm websites, looks like DOS is saying it will stay the same next visa bulletin. But, there is a slight possibility that it might move if the EB2 ROW demand drops this month.

What will happen from October Visa Bulletin ? Again, lot of possibilities and totally depends on DOS. Since September marks the last bulletin of the fiscal year, October can be totally new. DOS can decide to go back to their old strategy -- keep the date same till November then, retrogress totally back, say to 2005 and keep it at that till June. This may happen if they feel the reason for all the date movement this year is too much. DOS decides to be on the new strategy -- they might keep continuing with the same date and watch for porting. In that case, depending on the porting it will stay the same or move forward. The EB3 India date movement of 4 months this Visa bulletin instead of the regular 2 weeks, will help in less porting and will eventually help EB2 India as well.

For all EB2, EB3 India folks -- 
Unfortunately, if we want to be here, we all have to go through it. Yes, it is a tough long frustrating journey. Hang in there. It will get over soon.

Links:
You can see the official August 2015 Visa Bulletin here -http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-august-2015.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

July 2015 Visa Bulletin and Analysis


July 2015 Visa Bulletin was released earlier today. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India stayed at 01 OCT 08. EB2 China moved from 01 JUN 13 to 01 OCT 13. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is EB2 China is moving forward.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 22 JAN 04 to 01 FEB 04. EB3 China stayed at 01 SEP 11. EB3 Philippines became UnavailableFor all other countries the date moved from 15 FEB 15 to 01 APR 15.

Good news is the dates for most of countries have moved forward. 

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was supposed to come out couple of months back. Nothing yet. We will keep a watch on that and will keep you all posted.

Current I-485 inventory shows, For EB2 India, there are 21,082 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. This number was 20,263 in the previous edition. For EB3 India, it is 27,472  applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. It was 29,422 in previous edition.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:
I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India:
I thought the dates will move to 01 FEB 2010 by September visa bulletin -- http://ambals.blogspot.com/2015/03/what-to-expect-in-fy-2015-eb2-india.html. I was hoping they will start applying spillovers from July Bulletin and it will move faster. But, what has happened is totally opposite. The EB2 India forward movement stopped. The date stayed the same. Over the last few days, they have indicated that there is a very high sudden demand for other EB2 categories. This directly affects the spillover to EB2 India. I hope DOS is just being cautious and keeping the date the same to watch the demand this month. Now, the dates movement will totally depend on demand for other EB2 categories. I hope the demand stabilizes and they move it forward in August.

Links:

Read on Executive Action related to employment based - http://www.uscis.gov/immigrationaction#4

You can see the official June 2015 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-july-2015.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

June 2015 Visa Bulletin and Analysis

June 2015 Visa Bulletin was released yesterday. 

EB2:

Date for EB2 India moved from 15 APR 08 to 01 OCT 08. EB2 China moved from 01 JUN 12 to 01 JUN 13. The cut-off for all other EB2 countries are Current.

Good News is that EB2 India have started moving earlier than expected and it is moving fast. Another, good news is EB2 China is moving forward.

If you are waiting to file I-485, please use this opportunity to gather all the documents and keep it in place:

EB3:

Cut-off dates for EB3 India moved from 15 JAN 04 to 22 JAN 04. EB3 China moved from 01 MAY 11 to 01 SEP 11. EB3 Philippines moved from 01 JUL 07 to 01 JAN 05For all other countries the date moved from 01 JAN 15 to 15 FEB 15.

Good news is the dates for most of countries have moved. There is a retrogression in EB3 Philippines number.

I-485 Pending inventory:

I-485 pending inventory data was supposed to come out last month. Nothing yet. We will keep a watch on that and will keep you all posted.

Current I-485 inventory shows, For EB2 India, there are 21,082 pending applications, whose priority is before 01 MAY 2010. This number was 20,263 in the previous edition. For EB3 India, it is 27,472  applicants before 01 SEPT 2007 Priority date. It was 29,422 in previous edition.

What to Expect Next Few Months:

For EB3 India:
I am hoping it will move 2 weeks every Visa Bulletin, at the very least one week.

For EB2 India:
I expected the dates to stay the same till June. But, DOS is using a different strategy this time. They have moved a little in Feb Bulletin and they moved more than an year in Mar Bulletin and another 8 months in April Bulletin and another 7 months in May Bulletin and another 6 months in June Bulletin. I still think it will move till 01 FEB 2010 by September visa bulletin -- http://ambals.blogspot.com/2015/03/what-to-expect-in-fy-2015-eb2-india.html. Typically, they start applying spillovers from July visa bulletin. I am hoping it will move forward faster next 2 months.

Links:

Read on Executive Action related to employment based - http://www.uscis.gov/immigrationaction#4

You can see the official June 2015 Visa Bulletin here - http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-june-2015.html

You can see the official I-485 pending inventory Data here - 
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory